Reliable uncertainty estimation is essential for deploying object detectors in autonomous systems operating in uncertain environments. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides a principled framework for uncertainty-aware classification by representing network outputs as evidence and interpreting predictions through subjective logic. However, existing evidential object detectors typically combine evidential classification with regression uncertainty models that do not share the same theoretical foundation. In this work, we propose an evidential version of YOLOv8 in which both classification and bounding-box regression are formulated within a common evidential framework. Our approach exploits YOLOv8's distribution-based bounding-box representation, allowing the evidential formulation to be applied not only to classification but also to localisation. As a result, both tasks produce belief, uncertainty, and probability estimates that can be interpreted within the Dempster--Shafer framework. Experiments on KITTI, MUSES, and nuScenes show that the resulting detector remains broadly competitive with standard YOLOv8 in terms of detection accuracy while providing a localisation uncertainty that effectively discriminates between correct and erroneous detections. Moreover, this uncertainty becomes increasingly discriminative under domain shift.
Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged as an efficient, sampling-free strategy for uncertainty estimation. A series of EDL variants have been proposed to address specific limitations of the original framework, achieving notable success. However, the underlying theoretical structure of EDL and the relationships among these variants have received limited systematic investigation. In this work, we establish a principled theoretical foundation for EDL by interpreting it within a generalized Bayesian framework that includes prior specification, posterior update, and training objective. We further characterize evidential uncertainty from a Bayesian distributional uncertainty viewpoint, established via asymptotic analysis. Building on this perspective, we further propose Generalized Evidential Deep Learning (GEDL), a unified and extensible framework that explicitly disentangles the roles of individual components and systematically relates GEDL to existing variants. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GEDL yields comparable results on classification, uncertainty estimation and OOD detections, with theoretical grounding.
Reliable uncertainty estimation for 3D object detection is critical for deploying safe autonomous systems, yet modern detectors remain poorly calibrated, especially under distribution shifts. Although post-hoc calibration methods address this issue and provide improved calibration for in-distribution tests, they fail to adapt in distribution-shifted scenarios. In this work, we address this issue and introduce a density-aware calibration method that couples post-hoc calibrators with the feature density of latent object queries from DETR-style 3D object detectors. These queries form a compact, location and class-aware feature, ideal for density estimation, allowing our approach to adjust model confidences in distribution-shift scenarios. By fitting a density estimator on these query features, our approach jointly recalibrates both classification and bounding box regression uncertainties. On both a multi-view camera and LiDAR-based detector, our approach consistently outperforms standard post-hoc methods in both in-distribution and distribution-shifted scenarios. Code available https://tillbeemelmanns.github.io/query2uncertainty/ .
Till Beemelmanns, Alexey Nekrasov, Stefan Vilceanu +4
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object detection. However, object detection introduces structured multi-output predictions, complicating the application of classical CP theory developed for single outputs. In addition, standard, unscaled CP produces fixed-width prediction intervals across inputs, leading to unnecessary width for low-uncertainty predictions. While scaled CP addresses this by adapting the interval width to an input-dependent uncertainty estimate, prior work has neither systematically compared unscaled and scaled CP for multi-class object detection, nor integrated CP with a complementary uncertainty quantification method in this setting. We fill this gap by: (i) applying CP coordinate-wise to bounding box corners with a Bonferroni correction for box-level guarantees; (ii) scaling the resulting intervals using per-prediction aleatoric uncertainty estimates derived from a probabilistic object detector trained with loss attenuation, evaluated in uncalibrated and two calibrated variants; (iii) extending to a two-step pipeline that constructs prediction sets for the class using RAPS and conditions the conformalized bounding boxes on the predicted class set. Across three autonomous driving datasets (KITTI, BDD, CODA), including a cross-domain setting under distribution shift, scaled CP consistently improves interval sharpness over unscaled CP, achieving up to 19% higher IoU and 39% lower interval scores, without sacrificing coverage. Class-wise calibration further improves coverage for both variants with a negligible effect on sharpness. Together, these improvements yield more actionable uncertainty estimates for real-time, real-world object detection.
Christopher Ries, Moussa Kassem Sbeyti, Nicolas Bianco +1