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In many real-world computer vision applications, including medical imaging and industrial inspection, binary classification tasks are characterized by a severe scarcity of positive samples. A widely adopted solution is to generate synthetic positive data using image-to-image transformations applied to negative samples. However, a fundamental challenge remains: how can we reliably assess whether such synthetic data will improve downstream model performance? In this work, we propose a geometry-driven metric that predicts the utility of synthetic data without requiring model training. Our approach operates in the embedding space of a pre-trained foundation model and represents the dataset through difference vectors between samples. We evaluate whether the weight vector of a linear classifier can be expressed within the subspace spanned by these variations by measuring the relative projection error. Intuitively, if the variations induced by synthetic data capture task-relevant directions, their span can approximate the classifier, resulting in low projection error. Conversely, poor synthetic data fails to span these directions, leading to higher error. Across multiple datasets and architectures, we show that this metric exhibits strong correlation with downstream classification performance of CNNs trained on mixtures of real negative and synthetic positive data. These findings suggest that the proposed metric serves as a practical and informative tool for evaluating synthetic data quality in data-scarce settings.

Modern software systems increasingly depend on data for analysis, prediction, testing, and decision-making. Yet many important domains, including medicine, safety-critical systems, and regulated industries, lack abundant, shareable, or representative data. Synthetic data generation is often proposed as a remedy, but our experience engineering software for intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) in breast cancer treatment suggests that synthetic data shifts rather than solves the central engineering problem. The key challenge becomes deciding which properties synthetic data must preserve, how these properties should be elicited from stakeholders, how they can be validated under privacy constraints, and how they evolve. We call this problem property-driven synthetic data engineering. Drawing on a collaboration with oncologists and preliminary experiments with a sensitive IORT dataset, we identify challenges in requirements, validation, privacy, and pipeline evolution. We argue that automated software engineering research should develop methods and tools for eliciting, formalizing, checking, and evolving validity properties for synthetic data in data-scarce software systems.

Synthetic data has become a promising way to scale model training beyond limited human-generated data but it may also induce strong model collapse (Dohmatob et al., 2024), where any fixed fraction of synthetic data prevents model performance from improving under data scaling, leaving a non-vanishing excess risk floor. In this paper, we study how synthetic data affects the generalization of one-pass SGD in high-dimensional linear regression with model shift. We establish finite-sample risk bounds for mixed and two-stage training, separating standard bias and variance from source-mismatch effects, namely fluctuation and persistent drift under mixing and filtered initialization bias under two-stage. These bounds reveal a sharp contrast: mixed training induces strong model collapse, while two-stage training avoids the floor by using synthetic data only in the first stage, showing that collapse is not inevitable under a simple data curriculum. Under a random sketch model, we further obtain scaling laws for both protocols, with tight results for mixed training in the optimization-saturated regime. These laws show that larger models may amplify synthetic-induced degradation under mixing, and quantify how high-quality synthetic pretraining may reduce bias in two-stage training. Finally, we establish an exact finite-sample necessary-and-sufficient condition for two-stage training to strictly outperform real-only training under the same real-data budget and identical real-stage updates. Overall, our results highlight that synthetic data is neither inherently harmful nor beneficial; its effect depends critically on both its quality and the training protocol used to incorporate it.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been widely used to estimate agricultural variables across diverse contexts. However, because the quantity and quality of training data strongly influence performance of ML algorithms, their use can be constrained by limited or incomplete reference data. Synthetic Data Generation (SDG) offers a practical approach to address this issue by producing artificial but realistic samples that preserve key characteristics of the original data. Building on teacher-student knowledge transfer and in-context learning for tabular data, this study proposes a Task-Conditioned SDG (TCSDG) algorithm that pairs a Bayesian Network generator with a transformer-based tabular foundation model (TabICL). The proposed algorithm was evaluated on two agricultural prediction tasks: crop yield prediction and crop type classification. Six benchmark SDG algorithms were also utilized to compare their performance with that of TCSDG. Across twelve study sites, two training-data fractions, four multiplication ratios, and three predictive ML algorithms, augmenting the original data with TCSDG-generated synthetic data improved ML performance in 89% of the crop type classification experiments and 74% of the crop yield prediction experiments. TCSDG also substantially outperformed benchmark SDG algorithms and was the only method to consistently improve ML performance across both tasks at the aggregate level. The study demonstrates that carefully designed and processed synthetic data can improve ML performance in precision-agriculture applications. TCSDG offers a practical and extensible framework for generating synthetic data that supports downstream ML agricultural prediction. The full implementation of TCSDG is publicly available as open source at https://github.com/HamidEbrahimy/TCSDG.

Relational Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) such as RDB-PFN approximate Bayesian inference over multi-table relational databases by pretraining on millions of synthetic tasks. We investigate three intertwined questions about this paradigm. First, can a structurally different synthetic generator PluRel substitute for RDB-PFN's prior? Second, how much does the order in which synthetic data is presented to the PFN affect downstream performance? Third, how much relational reasoning can a PFN acquire from single-table synthetic pretraining alone, before any relational data is introduced? Using PluRel as the sole synthetic data source across all experiments, we find: (i) a progressive single-table curriculum that gradually widens schema complexity from 7 to 17 columns reaches 0.703 average ROC-AUC on the 23-task tabular benchmark using only approximately 13,300 synthetic tables (approximately 45x fewer single-table datasets than RDB-PFN's reported warm-up recipe), while the same data trained all-at-once collapses to 0.541 ROC-AUC; (ii) a relational curriculum trained from scratch on only approximately 5,500 PluRel databases reaches 0.638 average ROC-AUC on the 19-task RelBench/4DBInfer benchmark, recovering 88% of RDB-PFN's reported performance with approximately 220x less relational synthetic data; and (iii) the single-table curriculum model, evaluated directly on the relational benchmark without any relational adaptation, achieves 0.631, nearly matching the dedicated relational pipeline. Together, these findings suggest that curriculum design and synthetic data diversity may matter more for relational PFN pretraining than the specific relational generator or raw synthetic scale alone.

Synthetic data is increasingly used to train large language models (LLMs), yet its security implications remain poorly understood. Prior work on subliminal learning suggests that models can inherit behavioral traits from seemingly unrelated training data. In this work, we investigate whether such mechanisms can be exploited to inject targeted social biases into aligned models through semantically benign synthetic data. We construct a pipeline in which a misaligned teacher model generates filtered synthetic datasets across domains such as creative writing and code generation, which are then used to fine-tune aligned student models. Our experiments show that benign-looking synthetic data can act as a covert channel for transmitting targeted biases while largely preserving the student model's general task capabilities. These results reveal a previously underexplored security risk in synthetic data-driven LLM training pipelines and highlight the need for improved safeguards. As one possible step toward this goal, we suggest that log-linearity-based scoring may provide a useful signal for screening seemingly benign synthetic data.

Today, tool-calling agents are commonly evaluated or tested on static datasets of execution traces, including input commands, agent responses, and associated tool calls. However, internal production datasets are often insufficient or unusable for testing; for example, they may contain sensitive or proprietary data, or they may be too sparse to support comprehensive testing (especially pre-deployment). In these settings, practitioners are increasingly replacing or augmenting real datasets with synthetic ones for evaluation purposes. A key challenge is quantifying the relation between these synthetic datasets and the real data. We introduce SynAE, an evaluation framework for assessing how well synthetic benchmarks for multi-turn, tool-calling agents replicate and augment the characteristics of real data trajectories. SynAE assesses the validity, fidelity, and diversity of synthetic data across four metric categories: (i) task instructions and intermediate responses, (ii) tool calls, (iii) final outputs, and (iv) downstream evaluation. We evaluate SynAE using recent agent benchmarks and test common synthetic data failure modes via realistic and controlled generation schemes. SynAE detects fine-grained variations in data validity, fidelity and diversity, and shows that no single metric is sufficient to fully characterize synthetic data quality, motivating a multi-axis evaluation of synthetic data for agent testing. A demo of SynAE is available at https://synae-2026-synae-demo.static.hf.space/index.html, with code at https://github.com/wsqwsq/SynAE.

Synthetic tabular data generation addresses data scarcity and privacy constraints in a variety of domains. Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN), a recent foundation model for tabular data, has been shown capable of generating high-quality synthetic tabular data. However, TabPFN is autoregressive: features are generated sequentially by conditioning on the previous ones, depending on the order in which they appear in the input data. We demonstrate that when the feature order conflicts with causal structure, the model produces spurious correlations that impair its ability to generate synthetic data and preserve causal effects. We address this limitation by integrating causal structure into TabPFN's generation process through two complementary approaches: Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)-aware conditioning, which samples each variable given its causal parents, and a partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG)-based strategy for scenarios with partial causal knowledge. We evaluate these approaches on controlled benchmarks and six CSuite datasets, assessing structural fidelity, distributional quality, and Average Treatment Effect (ATE) preservation. Across most settings, DAG-aware conditioning improves the quality and stability of synthetic data relative to vanilla TabPFN. Under partial causal knowledge, the oracle partially directed acyclic graph (oracle-PDAG), which orients only the edges into the colliders, shows moderate gains, while the benefit of a Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) discovered from data depends on how well the causal structure is recovered. These results indicate that reliable causal structure, even partial, can be injected into TabPFN at inference time, without parameter updates, to improve synthetic data quality.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a powerful tool for synthetic data generation. A particularly important use case is producing synthetic replicas of private text, which requires carefully balancing privacy and utility. We propose Realistic and Privacy-Preserving Synthetic Data Generation (RPSG), which uses private seeds and integrates privacy-preserving strategies, including a formal differential privacy (DP) mechanism in the candidate selection, to generate realistic synthetic data. Comprehensive experiments against state-of-the-art private synthetic data generation methods demonstrate that RPSG achieves high fidelity to private data while providing strong privacy protection.

There is a proliferation of work arguing for the use of synthetic data in scientific research. For example, social scientists are arguing for the use of LLM-generated "silicon samples" in pilot studies; AI evaluations increasingly rely on "LLM-as-a-judge" outputs; and proteomics research is accelerated by generative models that produce synthetic protein structures. These developments raise an intriguing possibility: synthetic data may help researchers ask more questions, run more studies, and accelerate discovery. But they also raise a fundamental concern: synthetic data can be biased, noisy, and misspecified. In this work, we propose statistical principles for using synthetic data in scientific research with provable validity guarantees. The key insight is a new technical condition that we call task exchangeability. Informally, this is a requirement that the researcher can identify historical tasks, for which real data is available, such that their current task of interest is exchangeable with the historical tasks in an appropriate mathematical sense. We develop methods for valid inference under task exchangeability, together with extensions that provide guarantees even beyond exchangeability. We demonstrate the framework on public opinion surveys with silicon samples and AI evaluation with autoraters.

Currently, autonomous driving object detection models face significant data scarcity and generalization challenges when navigating complex Chinese rural traffic scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel real-synthetic mixed object detection dataset tailored specifically for Chinese rural roads and systematically evaluate the performance of 13 mainstream detectors under different real-to-synthetic data ratios, thereby providing empirical evidence for model selection and data strategy design in rural autonomous driving scenarios. Our dataset combines real-world images captured in Weishi County, Henan Province, with parameterized virtual scenes generated via Unreal Engine. To accurately reflect the unique realities of rural traffic, we define a comprehensive 14-category object system encompassing region-specific elements such as electric tricycles, low-speed vehicles (LSVs), and roadside stalls. Under a unified training protocol, we systematically evaluate 13 mainstream detectors -- spanning the YOLOv5, YOLOv8, YOLO11, and YOLO26 series, as well as RT-DETR-L -- across three data configurations: an all-real baseline, a 1:0.5 real-to-virtual mix, and a 1:1 mix. Experimental results demonstrate that a moderate injection of synthetic data (1:0.5 ratio) effectively enhances detection performance, with YOLO11m achieving the highest mAP@0.5 of 0.758. However, a higher proportion of synthetic data (1:1) introduces domain shifts that offset the benefits of data scaling. While most models reliably identify distinct local vehicles, significant perceptual bottlenecks remain for long-tail, non-standard objects like stalls and railings. This research provides crucial empirical evidence and novel insights for model selection and synthetic data strategies, facilitating the practical deployment of autonomous driving perception systems in rural areas.

To overcome data scarcity and privacy constraints in data collection, it has become standard practice across academia and industry to augment real training data with text-to-image (T2I)-generated synthetic data, a paradigm we term Real-Synthetic Mix-Training (RSMT). While substituting synthetic data for sensitive real samples is widely regarded as a means to mitigate privacy exposure of the substituted data, the risk to the remaining real samples that actively participate in training has remained largely unexamined. This work reveals, for the first time, that RSMT can substantially amplify privacy leakage of these real training samples. We establish a theoretical framework, RSMT Memorization Amplification, proving that incorporating synthetic data displaces real samples toward peripheral regions of the mixed feature space, in turn forcing the model to memorize them more aggressively. Guided by this foundation, we propose RSMixLeak to systematically assess this risk through membership inference attacks (MIAs). RSMixLeak comprises two variants depending on the adversary's capability. The non-adversarial variant audits a benign RSMT pipeline with an honest T2I provider, establishing a lower bound on the leakage induced by the intrinsic gap between real and T2I-generated data. The adversarial variant considers an adversary who controls the T2I model or contributes crafted data to the T2I provider, and deliberately enlarges this distributional gap on a target class via either high-level semantic attribute binding or imperceptible pixel-level coating, further amplifying leakage on real training data while improving downstream model utility. Motivated by these findings, we further propose a lightweight leakage propensity indicator computable from real data alone that reliably identifies high-risk datasets unsuitable for entering RSMT, as a self-assessable mitigation.

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.

Cracks are a critical indicator of building health, and early stage identification is fundamental to prevent harmful damages. Advances in deep learning (DL), particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have enabled scalable solutions for automated crack detection. However, CNN performance strongly depends on the availability of large and diverse datasets, which is particularly challenging for complex surfaces such as masonry. Collecting sufficient real data is time-consuming, while publicly available datasets may not be adequate. To address this limitation, we explored generating synthetic crack data, which complements real data and improves training effectiveness. The real dataset consists of masonry crack images collected from buildings in Bologna and surrounding areas. In contrast, the synthetic dataset was generated using a crack overlay tool that adds cracks to background images in a controlled orientation and placement. The real dataset was used to train several DL architectures, to identify the best-performing model (InceptionV4) employed for experiments with generated data. Six training scenarios were tested in InceptionV4 by varying the ratio of real and synthetic data, with evaluation performed on a test set composed of real images using the F1-score and mean Intersection over Union (mIoU) metrics. Results show that training on synthetic data plus a modest addition of 20% real data achieves results comparable to training on real data only. Moreover, the 20/80 scenario (synthetic/real) achieved an 76% F1-score and 80% mean IoU, outperforming the real-only case. As can be seen, the method demonstrates the potential of synthetic data to reduce collection efforts while enhancing crack detection accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now routinely trained using synthetic data, since high-quality human data has been exhausted by the ever increasing needs of larger and larger models. However, recursive training on synthetic data frequently induces model collapse, a degenerative feedback loop where models progressively forget the true underlying data distribution. Training on a mixture of synthetic and fresh human data is a logical countermeasure and can prevent model collapse. However, it is an open question as to what is the exact minimum required ratio of human-to-synthetic data to maintain training stability. In this paper, we establish rigorous theoretical guarantees on the minimum rate of human data required to prevent model collapse. Although previous work established a formal lower bound for this ratio, such bound can be vacuous for very high dimensions, as the analysis relies on the usual Euclidean metric in R^n and is not adapted to the space of categorical probability distributions. Instead, in this paper we explicitly leverage the information-geometric structure of the probability simplex by analyzing the dynamics of the process under the Fisher-Rao metric. We derive quantitative contraction and invariance bounds that are stable and do not become trivial as the dimensions increase. Thus, we show that the effective required data ratio to prevent model collapse is different than previously implied.

Controllable human video generation aims to produce realistic videos of humans with explicitly guided motions and appearances,serving as a foundation for digital humans, animation, and embodied AI.However, the scarcity of largescale, diverse, and privacy safe human video datasets poses a major bottleneck, especially for rare identities and complex actions.Synthetic data provides a scalable and controllable alternative,yet its actual contribution to generative modeling remains underexplored due to the persistent Sim2Real gap.In this work,we systematically investigate the impact of synthetic data on controllable human video generation. We propose a diffusion-based framework that enables fine-grained control over appearance and motion while providing a unfied testbed to analyze how synthetic data interacts with real world data during training. Through extensive experiments, we reveal the complementary roles of synthetic and real data and demonstrate possible methods for efficiently selecting synthetic samples to enhance motion realism,temporal consistency,and identity preservation.Our study offers the first comprehensive exploration of synthetic data's role in human-centric video synthesis and provides practical insights for building data-efficient and generalizable generative models.

Synthetic data is widely used in healthcare to create datasets that preserve statistical properties of real data without exposing sensitive patient information. Generating and evaluating synthetic data across privacy, utility, and fairness dimensions is crucial for enabling high-quality data availability in downstream prediction tasks and clinical decision making. We present \textbf{Memisis}, a tool that orchestrates and evaluates synthetic data by leveraging existing synthesis libraries, large language models (LLMs), and state-of-the-art evaluation metrics. Our tool creates a unified workflow for data generation, validation, and evaluation. Users can control training size, training epochs, and the number of synthetic rows to sample. Beyond manual configuration, an interactive agent mode allows users to specify data generation goals in natural language, and the tool orchestrates the full pipeline by invoking existing synthesizers while performing the requisite evaluation. For the demo, we use an open-source schizophrenia dataset with protected attributes related to race and gender, evaluate six synthesizers spanning GANs, VAEs, diffusion models, and normalizing flows, and use a local LLM to orchestrate the workflow. The system affords users flexibility and control over the data generation and evaluation process.

Recently, the societal implementation of high-performance image classification models has expanded rapidly. While these models require vast amounts of training data to improve performance, securing sufficient real images is often impractical. As a means to compensate for this shortage, the use of synthetic data is becoming widespread. However, synthetic images are not necessarily equivalent to real images for training purposes. This study systematically analyzes the differences between two types of synthetic images created by different generation methods and real images from three perspectives: high-dimensional feature space, low-level statistics in color space, and the model training process. Furthermore, it experimentally verifies how synthetic data should be utilized by considering realistic data mixing scenarios. This enables the proposal of an evaluation and application strategy for performing preliminary assessments on synthetic images of unknown quality and safely incorporating them into training. This research aims to contribute to enhancing the reliability and safety of image classification models utilizing synthetic images.

Synthetic data has become a common component of machine learning research. While widely adopted, its use in privacy-sensitive contexts has quietly shifted from a claim of residual inference risk under stated assumptions to an appearance-based property inferred from data generation itself. In this position paper, we argue that this shift reflects an implicit change in community standards for what counts as sufficient privacy evidence, rather than a misunderstanding of well-established privacy principles. Drawing on an empirical analysis of recent publications across major ML venues, we show that synthetic data is frequently used in privacy-sensitive settings without explicit articulation of threat models, inference risks, or falsifiable privacy claims. As a result, privacy assurance often remains implicit, difficult to verify, and unevenly distributed, with heightened exposure for rare and minority records. We argue for treating privacy as an explicit, evidence-based scientific claim and recommend that ML venues adopt norms requiring privacy-relevant assertions to be clearly scoped, testable, and contestable.

Counterfactuals are typically used in high-stakes decision areas to explain a machine learning model by showing how changes to the user profiles result in the desired outcome. However, explaining the model's decisions through counterfactuals can also be exploited by an adversary to conduct privacy attacks against the model or its training data. Drawing on the analogy that counterfactuals provide realistic substitutes for real training data, similar to synthetic data, we demonstrate in this paper how it is possible to successfully perform privacy attacks on counterfactuals by drawing on the attacks developed against synthetic data. More precisely, we investigate the effectiveness of the membership inference attacks designed for synthetic data on various types of counterfactuals. Additionally, while existing membership inference attacks against counterfactuals usually require to be able to query the model, we show how it is possible to perform successful membership inference attacks using only a set of counterfactuals, with no access to the model from which they are generated. Our results demonstrate that model developers should be more cautious when releasing counterfactuals to various users, as it can lead to a privacy breach.

Children with rare genetic diseases often exhibit distinctive facial phenotypes, yet developing computer vision systems for early diagnosis remains challenging due to extreme data scarcity, privacy constraints, and limited data sharing in pediatric settings. These challenges not only hinder automated diagnosis but also restrict the availability of visual resources for clinical genetic counseling. While prior work has shown that synthetic data can augment real datasets and preserve phenotype-level semantics, it remains unclear whether synthetic data alone is sufficient for learning in ultra-low-resource pediatric settings. In this work, we study the synthetic-only regime for pediatric rare disease recognition. Under a controlled experimental setup, models are trained exclusively on phenotype-aware synthetic facial images at increasing scales. We find that synthetic-only training achieves performance comparable to real-data-only baselines at sufficient scale across multiple backbones, suggesting that high-fidelity synthetic data can approximate clinically meaningful distributions. These findings together further enable the use of synthetic pediatric facial images as privacy-preserving resources for genetic education and counseling, supporting clinician training and patient communication. Our results highlight the potential of computer vision to improve data efficiency and expand accessible visual tools in children's healthcare.

Synthetic data has transformed language model training, yet its role in time series forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a large-scale empirical study: nine experiment groups, 4,218 runs systematically evaluating synthetic time series augmentation across five architectures, four synthetic signals and seven datasets. The effect is sharply architecture-conditional: channel-mixing models (TimesNet, iTransformer) benefit in the majority of trials, while channel-independent models (DLinear, PatchTST) are consistently degraded. In selected low-resource settings the gains are striking: TimesNet trained on only 10% of Weather data with synthetic augmentation surpasses the full-data baseline (4 of 16 sparsity-dataset combinations). Averaged across all architectures, augmentation hurts in 67% of trials. We further find that only the Seasonal-Trend generator reliably helps across the tested benchmarks, and that hard curriculum switching is actively harmful (+24% MSE degradation). These results provide concrete, actionable guidelines on how to use synthetic data: use synthetic augmentation with channel-mixing architectures, use gradual annealing schedules, and treat low-resource augmentation as architecture- and dataset-dependent. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/hugoiscracked/synthetic-ts/tree/main}

Model collapse is a central challenge in learning from synthetic data: as later-generation large language models (LLMs) are trained on an increasing proportion of model-generated data, performance can degrade due to narrowed coverage and accumulated bias. Existing work mainly studies how to bound this degradation. In iterative model evolution, however, the more meaningful objective is to ensure that each successive model improves over its predecessor, which requires diagnosing collapse at a granularity that is actionable for data curation. We study this problem in synthetic data self-improving for instruction tuning. We show that collapse in this setting is not simply uniform performance degradation, but can appear as a polarization of competence, where synthetic training reinforces already strong skills while further degrading weak ones. Motivated by this observation, we propose KITE (Knowledge-boundary Instruction Tuning via Exploration), a two-stage framework that combines failure-guided data generation with boundary-aware uncertainty curation. Experiments across several datasets and multiple open-source LLMs show that KITE yields more stable improvement than strong synthetic-data baselines.

Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

Workload-based differentially private (DP) synthetic data methods privately measure aggregate queries and post-process the noisy answers into synthetic records. Generic workloads can achieve strong distributional fidelity, but causal estimands such as the average treatment effect (ATE) depend on treatment-arm balance and outcome moments that generic marginals need not preserve. We propose causal workloads: DP query sets designed around the orthogonal moments used by doubly robust causal estimators. The released workload can be used directly by stable moment-map estimators or reconstructed by maximum-entropy calibration into reusable synthetic data; our theory decomposes ATE error into sampling, privacy, workload-approximation, Monte Carlo, and calibration terms. We also introduce Causal-AIM, an adaptive workload selector, and a noise-aware multiple-imputation (NA+MI) procedure for confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. Because the workload is released once, the same DP synthetic table can support ATE, ATT, and subgroup analyses without additional privacy spending. Empirically, causal workloads are most useful at strict privacy budgets and for calibrated uncertainty, while generic workloads often retain an advantage for point RMSE as privacy relaxes. The broader lesson is a tradeoff: distributional fidelity can help point accuracy, but valid causal inference requires preserving causal moments and propagating DP noise rather than treating synthetic rows as real.

The rapid adoption of generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) has spurred interest in synthetic data as a privacy-preserving alternative to sensitive real-world datasets. However, generating high-utility synthetic data often carries the risk of memorizing and regurgitating private information from the training corpus. In this work, we present a customizable empirical auditing framework designed to detect and explain such data disclosures. Our framework introduces a mechanism to distinguish between "true disclosures"-where the system directly reproduces a user's information-and "phantom disclosures''-where the system incidentally generates a user's data. By partitioning input data into training and holdout sets and applying rigorous statistical hypothesis testing, we determine if observed disclosures are consistent with strict privacy baselines, such as zero-learning or specific Differential Privacy (DP) bounds. Crucially, this approach requires no model access, no canary insertion, and no reference model training -only the synthetic output and a held-out control set. We demonstrate that this framework effectively functions as a membership inference attack, providing empirical lower bounds on privacy leakage that are tighter than prior data-based auditing methods. Our approach is model-agnostic, applies to any synthetic data generation mechanism, and requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources than shadow-model or canary-based alternatives.

Generative models trained on artificially generated data have been shown to exhibit model collapse, resulting in significant performance degradation. As synthetic content increasingly contaminates the training corpora of language models, this raises critical concerns about the use of open data in continued pretraining. Although previous work has demonstrated model collapse in language models, it remains unclear whether exposure to synthetic data amplifies or attenuates the social biases already present in pretrained models. Because language models are known to reproduce and amplify demographic stereotypes, recursive training on self-generated data may create a self-reinforcing feedback loop in which biased associations become progressively stronger across generations. We call this hypothesized phenomenon fairness collapse. In this work, we construct controlled training regimes in which models are repeatedly trained on synthetic data using the Bias in Bios dataset. Across experiments, we observe a consistent and concerning pattern: fairness degradation emerges before substantial degradation is reflected by standard language-modeling metrics. This result highlights a critical risk associated with synthetic data contamination in language model training: bias can increase silently before strong indicators of model collapse become apparent.

Recent studies identified an intriguing phenomenon in recursive generative model training known as model collapse, where models trained on data generated by previous models exhibit severe performance degradation. Addressing this issue and developing more effective training strategies have become central challenges in generative model research. In this paper, we investigate this phenomenon within a novel framework, where generative models are iteratively trained on a combination of newly collected real data and synthetic data from the previous training step. To develop an optimal training strategy for integrating real and synthetic data, we evaluate the performance of a weighted training scheme in various scenarios, including Gaussian distribution estimation, generalized linear models, and nonparametric estimation. We theoretically characterize the impact of the mixing proportion and weighting scheme of synthetic data on the final model's performance. Our key finding is that, across different settings, the optimal weighting scheme under different proportions of synthetic data asymptotically follows a unified expression, revealing a fundamental trade-off between leveraging synthetic data and model performance. In some cases, the optimal weight assigned to real data corresponds to the reciprocal of the golden ratio. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on extensive simulated datasets and a real tabular dataset.

Recent advances in image generation have made it easy to produce high-quality images. However, these outputs are inherently flattened, entangling foreground elements, background, and text within a fixed canvas. As a result, flexible post-generation editing remains challenging, revealing a clear last-mile gap toward practical usability. Existing approaches either rely on scarce proprietary layered assets or construct partially synthetic data from limited structural priors. However, both strategies face fundamental challenges in scalability. In this work, we investigate whether pure synthetic layered data can improve graphic design decomposition. We make the assumption that, in graphic design, effective decomposition does not require modeling inter-layer dependencies as precisely as in natural-image composition, since design elements are often intentionally arranged as modular and semantically separable components. Concretely, we conduct a data-centric study based on CLD baseline, which is a state-of-the-art layer decomposition framework. Based on the baseline, we construct our own synthetic dataset, SynLayers, generate textual supervision using vision language models, and automate inference inputs with VLM-predicted bounding boxes. Our study reveals three key findings: (1) even training with purely synthetic data can outperform non-scalable alternatives such as the widely used PrismLayersPro dataset, demonstrating its viability as a scalable and effective substitute; (2) performance consistently improves with increased training data scale, while gains begin to saturate at around 50K samples; and (3) synthetic data enables balanced control over layer-count distributions, avoiding the layer-count imbalance commonly observed in real-world datasets. We hope this data-centric study encourages broader adoption of synthetic data as a practical foundation for layered design editing systems.

Synthetic tabular data support use cases like data sharing, model development under access restrictions, and rapid prototyping of analytical workflows. Modern generative models are evaluated by their statistical similarity, correlation structure, privacy, and downstream machine-learning utility. However, such evaluations leave a gap: they rarely test the structure that matters for analytical queries. We present TabQueryBench, a query-centric benchmark that uses SQL-shaped analytical queries as structural assessors for synthetic data fidelity. It provides an extensible foundation for query-centric synthetic-data evaluation. From 12 public sources of analytical queries, TabQueryBench taxonomizes recurring cross-domain logic into 44 reusable query templates and grounds them to each dataset via a policy-guided template-to-SQL pipeline. This makes queries schema-aware while preserving comparability across generative models. Across 49 datasets and 11 generative models, it activates 10-12 templates per dataset, producing more than 100 executable SQL queries per dataset. Our systematic experiments show five main patterns. First, current tabular generative models can have good distance-based fidelity, but they still fall short on query-centric fidelity: RealTabFormer achieves the highest query-centric fidelity, but it only reaches 0.75 +/- 0.15 (REAL data score is 1.00). Second, tabular generative models struggle with very high-cardinality discrete support. Third, SOTA generative models preserve good global conditional query-centric fidelity, but fail more on local queries. Fourth, tail fidelity deteriorates as queries move toward the extreme tail; even the best model recovers only about 40.7% of real rare values. Finally, there is a fidelity-cost tradeoff in tabular generation: BayesNet offers the strongest tradeoff, with slightly lower query-centric fidelity but much lower generation cost.