Bayesian RL

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models but incurs substantial costs from rollouts and policy updates. Online prompt selection improves efficiency by using per-prompt Bayesian posteriors to predict difficulty and prioritize informative prompts. However, existing methods overlook how reliably learning signals are extracted from sampled responses. In GRPO, a response's advantage depends on both its own outcome and the randomly sampled outcomes of its peers through group normalization. Our theoretical and experimental analyses show that uncertainty in group composition introduces composition noise, a non-vanishing variance component that imposes an irreducible lower bound on gradient estimation error and impairs downstream prompt selection. We propose MaPP (Marginalized Posterior-Predictive), a unified framework for data-efficient RLVR that denoises response-level advantage estimation and improves prompt selection using a shared Beta posterior. For each response, MaPP replaces the standard group-relative advantage with a composition-invariant intrinsic advantage through closed-form Beta-Binomial marginalization. The resulting posterior-predictive estimator has an error that provably diminishes as the posterior concentrates. Using the same posterior, MaPP derives an uncertainty-aware prompt selection score to improve data efficiency without additional rollout cost. Experiments on mathematics, planning, and visual geometry across five model backbones show that MaPP consistently outperforms GRPO and strong selection baselines, achieving up to +2.45 average accuracy improvement over the strongest baseline under the same rollout budget and setting a new state of the art.

We present a novel end-to-end model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm for efficient policy synthesis under given Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) specifications (e.g., safety or reachability) in unknown environments. To do so, a Limit-Deterministic B{ü}chi Automaton (LDBA) representation of the LTL task is synchronised with a Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP) representation of the environment, which allows us to leverage an enhanced exploration-exploitation trade-off that is achieved via Bayesian RL, as opposed to traditional non-Bayesian approaches. We further propose a novel Bayes-Adaptive Monte-Carlo Planning (BAMCP) algorithm to allow for approximate Bayes-optimal strategy synthesis in the synchronised BAMDP construct. A range of finite- and infinite-horizon task experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in terms of both property satisfaction and sample efficiency, when compared to traditional model-free approaches. Additional ablation studies also successfully highlight the value of the novel BAMCP algorithm in comparison to classical BAMCP for LTL task satisfaction. Finally, we also showcase a successful application of our approach for \textit{cautious} RL, namely to reduce the number of task violations incurred during policy training.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful yet sample-inefficient approach for learning reward models from human preferences, making active learning a critical component in synthesizing informative preference queries. However, effective uncertainty quantification required for active learning remains a key challenge for large neural network reward models. In this paper, we introduce PreferenceEKF, a sample-efficient approach that tracks reward model uncertainty by framing active preference learning as a sequential Bayesian filtering problem. Instead of relying on computationally prohibitive posterior inference over the full neural network parameter space, our method performs sequential inference via an extended Kalman filter within a low-dimensional parameter subspace, continuously updating the reward model posterior as new preference queries arrive. Our approach enables scalable sampling of neural network parameters to efficiently compute acquisition functions for active reward learning. Experiments on the D4RL and V-D4RL benchmarks demonstrate that our approach achieves better sample efficiency, runtime, scalability, and calibration compared to other Bayesian deep learning approaches, and the learned reward models lead to competitive offline reinforcement learning policy performance. This highlights the potential of scalable Bayesian methods for preference-based reward modeling in RLHF. Our code is available at https://github.com/yutaizhou/bnn_pref.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a sequential decision-making framework in which an agent learns optimal policies through interaction with an environment by maximizing cumulative rewards. Among RL methods, Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) addresses common practical challenges related to data scarcity by leveraging prior knowledge about the environment and sequential belief updates. However, most BRL approaches require an explicit likelihood function, which is frequently inaccessible or intractable in real-world settings. We propose Likelihood-Free Iterated Batch Importance Sampling (LF-IBIS), a novel algorithm for BRL that updates the agent's beliefs online as new interactions become available. By combining Approximate Bayesian Computation with Iterated Batch Importance Sampling, LF-IBIS enables full Bayesian inference in settings where the environment dynamics are not described by an explicit or tractable likelihood. The method yields approximate posterior distributions over both environment parameters and optimal policies, providing a quantification of policy uncertainty useful for a Bayesian treatment of the exploration-exploitation trade-off. We test the method on a simulation study in response-adaptive randomization in clinical trials, where closed-form posteriors enable validation. Additional experiments address settings where the posterior has no closed form and illustrate online policy updating based on the posterior distribution of the optimal policy.

LLM agents operate in two distinct regimes: open-weight agents amenable to reinforcement learning (RL) and black-box agents whose behaviour must be controlled purely at test time. Although black-box agents are often backed by state-of-the-art proprietary LLMs, API-only access precludes parameter-level optimization, rendering most RL methods inapplicable. To address this limitation, we turn to a known equivalence between RL and Bayesian inference. We propose Agentic Monte Carlo (AMC) to directly sample from the optimal policy of a black-box agent rather than training it through RL. The optimal policy is a posterior over trajectories whose prior we define as the fixed black-box LLM agent. We employ Sequential Monte Carlo to sample from this posterior by learning a value function to steer the agent while leaving the underlying black-box model unchanged. We validate AMC on three diverse environments from the AgentGym benchmark, demonstrating significant improvements over prompting baselines and even outperforming Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) as we scale the test-time compute of our method. AMC demonstrates the feasibility of performing principled RL-style optimization of black-box LLM agents. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/Agentic-Monte-Carlo

Sequential decision-making problems are often modelled as a Markov decision process (MDP). We focus on the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, which is an infinite-horizon undiscounted MDP with absorbing terminal states. We develop a Bayesian framework to learn the optimal decision strategy through interactions with the decision-making task. Specifically, we learn the optimal action-value function $Q^*$, but unlike many existing Bayesian approaches, we do not rely on unrealistic modelling assumptions and ad-hoc approximations. Our approach is to directly construct the posterior beliefs for $Q^*$ through Bellman's optimality equations. For deterministic rewards, we characterise the posterior as a distribution with a manifold density. To facilitate simpler inference, we relax the likelihood so that a Lebesgue density exists. The flip side is to create unidentifiability issues. Specifically, the relaxed posterior can have significant mass on improper decision rules, while the exact posterior will not. We also calculate the exact posterior probabilities for optimal action selections for the tabular parametrisation of $Q^*$, a Gaussian likelihood relaxation and a Gaussian prior, which is useful in benchmarking studies. Numerical studies on variants of the Deep Sea benchmark verify our findings. We demonstrate that our framework faithfully quantifies uncertainty and, compared to other temporal-difference-based Bayesian methodologies, is more data efficient. We conclude with recommendations for future work.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies from pre-collected datasets. A bottleneck of this paradigm is managing epistemic uncertainty, which arises from limited data coverage (sample-level) and the ambiguity in identifying transition dynamics from finite data (model-level). To provide a unified quantification of these uncertainties, Bayesian RL has been proposed by treating the dynamics model as a random variable and maintaining a corresponding belief. Despite its theoretical appeal, policy optimization in Bayesian RL remains computationally challenging as it requires solving composite objectives with expectations. Prior methods either employ search-based techniques with poor computational scalability or impose restrictive posterior assumptions that sacrifice the adaptability of Bayesian RL. To address these limitations, we propose Posterior Hybrid Bayesian Belief (PhyB), which reformulates the expectation as a convex combination over a subset of dynamics models. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the objective discrepancy induced by this approximation remains bounded. Based on PhyB, we develop an iterative regularized policy optimization algorithm that provides metric-agnostic guarantees for monotonic improvement until convergence. Empirical results demonstrate that PhyB achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmarks.

Decision-making from offline datasets typically warm-starts a policy or score model from fixed offline data and then refines it with limited online interaction. Offline data reduces uncertainty, but it does not remove the need for exploration; it changes what remains to be explored. We formalise this residual uncertainty by the conditional mutual information $I(χ;τ_{1:T}\mid\mathcal{D}_N)$ between a learning target $χ$ and the online trajectories after conditioning on the offline dataset. This view leads naturally to information-directed sampling (IDS), a family parameterised by $η\ge 0$ that selects actions by trading off instantaneous regret against information gain. We prove a generic offline-to-online Bayesian regret bound for IDS through a ratio certificate: any information-ratio bound satisfied by a reference Thompson-sampling policy over the same randomised policy class is inherited by IDS. In a known-dynamics Bayesian linear-reward model, the conditional mutual information has a log-determinant form, and vanilla IDS ($η=0$) satisfies $\widetilde O\!\left(Hd\min\left\{\sqrt T,\,T\sqrt{C^\dagger_{β,\mathrm{IDS}_0}(N,T)/N}\right\}\right),$ where the coverage coefficient is tied to the visitation distribution induced by vanilla IDS itself. We also identify a warm-start regime with a dominated but informative probe in which vanilla IDS selects the probe while Thompson sampling never does, giving a constant-factor Bayesian regret separation. Controlled bandit experiments and D4RL offline-to-online RL experiments validate this mechanism: IDS is most beneficial when offline data is informative but leaves biased or low-probability residual uncertainty that targeted online actions can resolve, a regime shared by offline RL, offline black-box optimization, and Bayesian optimization.

In online reinforcement learning, data scarcity creates epistemic uncertainty that makes robustness important early in learning, whereas sufficient exploration is needed to learn the true-environment optimal policy. We study this time-varying robustness--exploration trade-off through a quantile Bayesian risk-aware Markov decision process (BR-MDP), in which the quantile level controls how posterior uncertainty enters the Bellman backup. We characterize this control through an asymptotic normality result for the difference between the quantile BR-MDP value and the value in the true environment. The result implies that upper/lower-tail quantiles induce optimism/pessimism towards epistemic uncertainty, and the magnitude of the optimism/pessimism decreases as data accumulate. Building on this characterization, we propose an online Bayesian risk-aware algorithm with an adaptive quantile schedule that emphasizes robustness early and gradually encourages exploration of less-visited state--action pairs. We establish sublinear Bayesian regret bounds with respect to both the true optimal value and the optimal BR-MDP robust value. Numerical experiments demonstrate strong performance in both exploration-demanding and exploration-costly environments.

Real-world control systems frequently operate under \emph{piecewise stationary} conditions, where dynamics remain stable for extended periods before undergoing abrupt regime changes. Standard robust RL methods face a fundamental dilemma: a globally conservative policy wastes performance during stable periods, while a locally adaptive policy risks catastrophic failure when the regime changes undetected. We propose \textbf{BAPR} (Bayesian Amnesic Piecewise-Robust SAC), which unifies Bayesian Online Change Detection (BOCD) with robust ensemble RL. The BAPR operator -- a convex combination of mode-conditional Bellman operators weighted by a frozen belief distribution -- is a $γ$-contraction. A complementary counterexample, machine-verified in Lean4, establishes a \emph{sharp boundary}: when beliefs depend on the Q-function, the contraction factor becomes $γ+ λΔ$ (where $Δ$ is the mode reward gap), and contraction fails exactly when $γ+ λΔ\geq 1$. We derive a \emph{component-wise} formal error budget for the abstract operator -- every component machine-verified -- bounding post-switch recovery; the budget applies to the abstract mode-mixture operator and inherits to the implemented shared-critic algorithm only through the frozen-parameter design intuition. All results are formally verified with no \texttt{sorry} (1,145 lines across 3 Lean4 files, 22 machine-verified theorems). BOCD drives an adaptive conservatism mechanism: the policy becomes maximally conservative after detected change-points and smoothly relaxes as confidence grows, with detection delay $O(\log(1/δ))$. A context-conditioning module trained via RMDM loss provides mode-aware representations from simulator-provided mode IDs at training time and requires no mode labels at deployment.

Policy gradient methods are reinforcement learning algorithms that adapt a parameterized policy by following a performance gradient estimate. Conventional policy gradient methods use Monte-Carlo techniques to estimate the gradient, which tend to have high variance, requiring many samples and resulting in slow convergence. We first propose a Bayesian framework for policy gradient, based on modeling the policy gradient as a Gaussian process. This reduces the number of samples needed to obtain accurate gradient estimates. Moreover, estimates of the natural gradient and a measure of the uncertainty in the gradient estimates, namely, the gradient covariance, are provided at little extra cost. Since the proposed framework considers system trajectories as its basic observable unit, it does not require the dynamics within trajectories to be of any particular form, and can be extended to partially observable problems. On the downside, it cannot exploit the Markov property when the system is Markovian. To address this, we supplement our Bayesian policy gradient framework with a new actor-critic learning model in which a Bayesian class of non-parametric critics, based on Gaussian process temporal difference learning, is used. Such critics model the action-value function as a Gaussian process, allowing Bayes rule to be used to compute the posterior distribution over action-value functions, conditioned on the observed data. Appropriate choices of the policy parameterization and of the prior covariance (kernel) between action-values yield closed-form expressions for the posterior of the gradient of the expected return with respect to the policy parameters. We perform detailed experimental comparisons of the proposed Bayesian policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms with classic Monte-Carlo based policy gradient methods, on a number of reinforcement learning problems.

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is a heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop successful algorithms for a variety of continuous control problems. However, theoretical work on GP-PSRL is limited. All known regret bounds either have a sub-optimal growth rate, require strong smoothness assumptions, or fail to properly account for the fact that the set of possible system states is unbounded. Through a recursive application of the Borell-Tsirelson-Ibragimov-Sudakov inequality, we show that, with high probability, the states actually visited by the algorithm are contained within a ball of near-constant radius. We then use the chaining method to control the regret suffered by GP-PSRL under weak smoothness conditions. Our main result is a Bayesian regret bound of the order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H\sqrt{γ_TT})$, where $H$ is the horizon, $T$ is the number of time steps and $γ_T$ is the expected information gain. With this result, we resolve the limitations with prior theoretical work on PSRL, and provide the theoretical foundation and tools for analyzing PSRL in complex settings.

In general reinforcement learning, all established optimal agents, including AIXI, are model-based, explicitly maintaining and using environment models. This paper introduces Universal AI with Q-Induction (AIQI), the first model-free agent proven to be asymptotically $\varepsilon$-optimal in general RL. AIQI performs universal induction over distributional action-value functions, instead of policies or environments like previous works. Under a grain of truth condition, we prove that AIQI is strong asymptotically $\varepsilon$-optimal and asymptotically $\varepsilon$-Bayes-optimal. We also apply our novel proof techniques to show asymptotic $\varepsilon$-optimality of Self-AIXI without any ad-hoc assumptions. Our results significantly expand the diversity of known universal agents.

Deep Bayesian reinforcement learning adapts to unseen tasks by inferring latent transition and reward models, but existing methods typically rely on variational posteriors and evidence lower bounds, introducing approximation error and unstable task representations. We introduce GLiBRL, a deep Bayesian RL framework that combines generalised linear task models with learnable non-linear basis functions. GLiBRL features conjugate Bayesian inference, yielding exact, sequential posterior updates over task parameters and model noise, together with a closed-form marginal likelihood that eliminates variational inference. The update is naturally permutation-invariant, allowing GLiBRL to integrate with both off- and on-policy algorithms. GLiBRL also learns task representation admitting an exact kernel identity, relating distances between task representations to kernel discrepancies over the task contexts. Compared against eight representative or recent meta reinforcement learning methods, GLiBRL achieves the highest aggregate zero-shot test performance on both the MuJoCo locomotion and MetaWorld manipulation benchmarks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) provides a principled framework for decision-making in partially observable environments, which can be modeled as Markov decision processes and compactly represented through dynamic decision Bayesian networks. Recent advances demonstrate that inference on sparse Bayesian networks can be accelerated using quantum rejection sampling combined with amplitude amplification, leading to a computational speedup in estimating acceptance probabilities. Building on this result, we introduce Quantum Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (QBRL), a hybrid quantum-classical look-ahead algorithm for model-based RL in partially observable environments. We present a rigorous, oracle-free time complexity analysis under fault-tolerant assumptions for the quantum device. Unlike standard treatments that assume a black-box oracle, we explicitly specify the inference process, allowing our bounds to more accurately reflect the true computational cost. We show that, for environments whose dynamics form a sparse Bayesian network, horizon-based near-optimal planning can be achieved sub-quadratically faster through quantum-enhanced belief updates. On the other hand, we show that there is no quantum speed-up for environments that are either fully observable, or characterized by Bayesian networks whose maximum in-degree is not small. Furthermore, we present numerical experiments benchmarking QBRL against its classical counterpart on simple yet illustrative decision-making tasks. Our results offer a detailed analysis of how the quantum computational advantage translates into decision-making performance, highlighting that the magnitude of the advantage can vary significantly across different deployment settings.

Offline RL (ORL) promises safe and sample-efficient deployment but existing methods rely on undocumented online interactions for hyperparameter tuning and lack reliable fully offline estimates of initial online performance. We introduce SOReL, a fully offline Bayesian model-based RL method that learns a posterior over dynamics, estimates policy value via predictive uncertainty, and enables complete offline hyperparameter selection. We further propose TOReL, which extends this tuning framework to arbitrary model-free and model-based ORL algorithms. We provide a regret analysis showing that Bayesian offline RL achieves the minimax-optimal parametric rate under standard regularity conditions. Together, our methods establish a practical and theoretically grounded framework for fully offline RL.

This paper develops a framework for learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action spaces, whose rewards and transitions depend on an unknown parameter.To analyze sampling-based adaptive learning algorithms in this setting, we introduce a canonical probability space that explicitly incorporates sampled parameters into the history of the process. As a performance criterion, we adopt the per-period suboptimality gap used in discounted-MDP regret analysis and specialize it to our parametrized Bayesian setting. Since this quantity captures the remaining loss in future performance from the current period onward, we refer to it as residual regret. We use the expected residual regret to connect discounted-MDP regret analysis with asymptotic discount optimality from adaptive control and the temporal-difference error perspective from reinforcement learning. We then focus on Thompson sampling (TS) in discounted infinite-horizon MDPs. Under assumptions that extend those used in prior work on finite state and action spaces to the Borel setting, we show that the expected residual regret for TS converges to zero exponentially fast. We further show that, under mild conditions ensuring the existence of the relevant limits, the ample-path residual regret converges to zero almost surely and TS achieves complete learning.