Bayesian Decision Theory

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Overview

The field asks how to turn uncertain beliefs into actions that perform well according to a goal, often by minimizing posterior expected loss or maximizing expected utility. Common approaches include Bayesian model averaging, sequential decision rules for bandits and control, and value-of-information methods for choosing what evidence to gather. Researchers also develop decision-focused learning and experimental design, evaluating methods on tasks such as resource allocation, diagnosis, and adaptive sampling. A central tension is that high confidence or good predictions do not guarantee good decisions when priors, costs, or real-world conditions are misaligned, motivating robust methods that account for ambiguity and decision stability.

Latest papers

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32 papers3 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. A Simple and General Approach to top-kk Selection

    Oct 19, 2026Motti Goldberger, Nils RudiAdaptive SamplingBayesian Decision Theory

    Yale School of Management

  2. When Should an In-Context Learner Expand Its Hypothesis Space?

    Oct 7, 2026Weihan Li, Xinlei Chen, Junhao Wu +1In-Context LearningMetacognition in Language Models

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan · School of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China · Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany +1

  3. Mixed-Prior Decision Risk for Open-Set Recognition

    Sep 28, 2026L. A. Erlygin, P. D. Proskura, A. A. ZaytsevSelective PredictionOpen-Set Recognition

    Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech), Moscow, Russia · Risk Management, Sber, Moscow, Russia · The Institute for Information Transmission Problems (IITP RAS), Moscow, Russia

  4. Exact Bayes Regret and Asymptotic Optimality in High-Dimensional Gaussian Bandits

    Sep 23, 2026Prakhar Singhvi, Yi Zou, Abhishek BhattacharjeeThompson SamplingMulti-Armed Bandits

    Abstract Math Institute

  5. Revelation Control

    Aug 24, 2026Qinyou WangActive Information GatheringCost-Aware Inference

  6. Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

    Aug 6, 2026Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi +3Computational Cognitive ModelingValue of Information

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan · Laboratoire Conception de Produits et Innovation (LCPI), Arts et M´etiers ParisTech, 151 Boulevard de l’Hˆopital, 75013 Paris, France

  7. A Generalized-Bayes Perspective on Counterfactual Explanations: Posterior-Based Decision-Making and Evaluation

    Jul 31, 2026Keita KinjoGeneralized Bayesian InferenceCounterfactual Evaluation

    Faculty of Business, Kyoritsu Women’s University

  8. Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertainty

    Jul 9, 2026Haripriya Harikumar, Sammie Katt, Yasir Zubayr Barlas +1Adversarial RobustnessBayesian Decision Theory

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, UK · ELLIS Institute Finland · Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

  9. Strategic Buying Agents

    Jul 6, 2026Mingyang Fu, Ming HuSequential Decision MakingOptimal Stopping

    Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

  10. Uncertainty-Aware Generation and Decision-Making Under Ambiguity

    Jun 29, 2026Nico Daheim, Iryna GurevychIntelligent Tutoring SystemsLLM Decision-Making

    Ubiquitous Knowledge Processing Lab (UKP Lab), Department of Computer Science, Technical University of Darmstadt · National Research Center for Applied Cybersecurity ATHENE, Germany

  11. Bayesian Best-Arm Identification with Abstention: A Polynomial-to-Exponential Phase Transition

    Jun 28, 2026Yuqi Huang, Yunlong Hou, Vincent Y. F. TanMulti-Armed BanditsBest-Arm Identification

    Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore

  12. Bayesian control for coding agents

    Jun 23, 2026Theodore Papamarkou, Vladislav Smirnov, Viktor Mazanov +4Language Model-Based ControlCoding Agents

    1PolyShape · 3MBZUAI

  13. Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives

    Jun 22, 2026Tom Rossa, Angus Phillips, Tom RainforthBayesian Decision TheoryBayesian Experimental Design

    Department of Statistics University of Oxford

  14. Bayesian learning for the stochastic shortest path problem

    Jun 3, 2026Chon Wai Ho, Sumeetpal S. Singh, Jiaqi GuoMarkov Decision ProcessesReinforcement Learning

    Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, UK · School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia

  15. Bayes-Sufficient Representations in Supervised Learning

    Jun 2, 2026Vasileios SevetlidisRepresentation LearningOutput Elicitation

    Athena Research Center, Kimmeria Campus, Xanthi, Greece · Democritus University of Thrace, Vas. Sofias Campus, Xanthi, Greece · International Hellenic University, Serres, Greece

  16. MINTS: Minimalist Thompson Sampling

    Jun 1, 2026Kaizheng WangThompson SamplingMulti-Armed Bandits

    Department of IEOR and Data Science Institute, Columbia University.

  17. Sample Complexity and Decision-Theoretic Guarantees for Bayesian Model Averaging over Decision Trees with Catalan-Exponential Priors

    May 31, 2026Livija Jakaite, Vitaly SchetininSample ComplexityBayesian Inference

    School of Computing and Engineering University of Bedfordshire, Luton, UK

  18. Neural Bayesian Sequential Routing

    May 22, 2026Yongchao HuangUncertainty QuantificationAdaptive Model Routing

  19. Training Neural Networks with Optimal Double-Bayesian Learning

    May 19, 2026Vy Bui, Hang Yu, Karthik Kantipudi +2Neural Network OptimizationBayesian Decision Theory

    Lister Hill National Center for Biomedical Communications, National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20894, USA · Office of Cyber Infrastructure and Computational Biology, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA

  20. Boundedly Rational Meta-Learning in Sequential Consumer Choice

    May 15, 2026Mehrzad Khosravi, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Hema YoganarasimhanMeta-LearningSequential Decision Making

    University of Washington

  21. A Bayesian Approach for Task-Specific Next-Best-View Selection with Uncertain Geometry

    May 6, 2026Jingsen Zhu, Silvia Sellán, Alexander TereninNext-Best-View Planning3D Reconstruction

    Cornell University, USA · Columbia University, USA

  22. Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

    May 1, 2026Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27LLM Agent OrchestrationAI Control

    PolyShape, Greece. · NTUA, Greece. · ESSEC Business School, Singapore. +19

  23. Reducing Hallucination in Enterprise AI Workflows via Hybrid Utility Minimum Bayes Risk (HUMBR)

    Apr 13, 2026Chenhao Fang, Jordi Mola, Mark Harman +10LLM Hallucination MitigationBayesian Decision Theory

    Meta Platforms, Inc. Menlo Park, CA, USA · Meta Platforms, Inc. Bellevue, WA, USA · Meta Platforms, Inc. London, UK +2

  24. Cost-sensitive retraining via posterior learning debt

    Apr 7, 2026Harrison KatzBayesian Decision TheoryRegret Minimization

    Finance Data Science & Strategy, Airbnb Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA

  25. Minimaxity and Admissibility of Bayesian Neural Networks

    Apr 6, 2026Daniel Andrew Coulson, Martin T. WellsBayesian Neural NetworksMinimax Estimation

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University

  26. All Substitution Is Local

    Apr 1, 2026Nidhish Shah, Shaurjya Mandal, Asfandyar AzharValue of InformationBayesian Decision Theory

    Harvard University · University of Oxford

  27. Cognitive Friction: A Decision-Theoretic Framework for Bounded Deliberation in Tool-Using Agents

    Mar 31, 2026Davide Di GioiaTool-Using AgentsCognitive Architectures for AI Agents

  28. Bayes with No Shame: Admissibility Geometries of Predictive Inference

    Mar 5, 2026Nicholas G. Polson, Daniel ZantedeschiBayesian Decision TheoryAnytime-Valid Inference

    Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 · Muma College of Business, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620

  29. Bayesian Adversarial Privacy

    Mar 4, 2026Cameron Bell, Timothy Johnston, Antoine Luciano +1Bayesian Decision Theory

    CEREMADE, Université Paris Dauphine–PSL, France · Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, UK

  30. General Bayesian Policy Learning

    Feb 27, 2026Masahiro KatoGeneralized Bayesian InferencePolicy Learning

    1Mizuho-DL Financial Technology Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan