Overview

Benchmark validity studies whether evaluation tasks measure the intended capability and whether their scores justify claims about real-world performance. Researchers audit task coverage, labels, answer keys, contamination, scoring rules, and agent trajectories, using expert review, controlled interventions, item-level analysis, and psychometric methods such as item response theory. They also test robustness to prompts, data splits, evaluation settings, and benchmark composition, and ask whether rankings predict performance on new tasks or in deployment. A central tension is that standardized benchmarks enable comparison but can reward shortcuts or miss real-world needs, so no single score can establish broad capability without evidence tied to a specific claim.

Latest papers

175 papers20 papers in the last four weeks, down 9% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Mar 31, 2026

BenchScope: How Many Independent Signals Does Your Benchmark Provide?

AI evaluation suites often report many scores without checking whether those scores carry independent information. We introduce Effective Dimensionality (ED), the participation ratio of a centered benchmark-score spectrum, as a fast, population-conditional upper-bound diagnostic of measurement breadth. Applied at per-instance granularity to 22 benchmarks across 8 domains and more than 8,400 model evaluations, ED reveals substantial redundancy: the six-score Open LLM Leaderboard behaves like roughly two effective measurement axes (ED = 1.7), BBH and MMLU-Pro are near-interchangeable (rho = 0.96, stable across seven subpopulations), and measurement breadth varies more than 20x across current benchmarks. We show that relative ED rankings are stable under matched-dimension controls and that ED can flag redundant suite components, monitor performance-conditional compression, and guide benchmark maintenance. Because binary spectra overestimate absolute latent dimensionality, we interpret ED as a screening statistic rather than a literal factor count and complement it with null, reliability, and saturation analyses. We provide a 22-benchmark reference atlas and a four-step diagnostic workflow that benchmark maintainers can run with a score matrix and a few lines of code.
Mar 28, 2026

KααLOS finds Consensus: A Meta-Algorithm for Evaluating Inter-Annotator Agreement in Complex Vision Tasks

Progress in object detection benchmarks is stagnating. It is limited not by architectures but by the inability to distinguish model improvements from label noise. To restore trust in benchmarking the field requires rigorous quantification of annotation consistency to ensure the reliability of evaluation data. However, standard statistical metrics fail to handle the instance correspondence problem inherent to vision tasks. Furthermore, validating new agreement metrics remains circular because no objective ground truth for agreement exists. This forces reliance on unverifiable heuristics. We propose KααLOS (KALOS), a unified meta-algorithm that generalizes the "Localization First" principle to standardize dataset quality evaluation. By resolving spatial correspondence before assessing agreement, our framework transforms complex spatio-categorical problems into nominal reliability matrices. Unlike prior heuristic implementations, KααLOS employs a principled, data-driven configuration; by statistically calibrating the localization parameters to the inherent agreement distribution, it generalizes to diverse tasks ranging from bounding boxes to volumetric segmentation or pose estimation. This standardization enables granular diagnostics beyond a single score. These include annotator vitality, collaboration clustering, and localization sensitivity. To validate this approach, we introduce a novel and empirically derived noise generator. Where prior validations relied on uniform error assumptions, our controllable testbed models complex and non-isotropic human variability. This provides evidence of the metric's properties and establishes KααLOS as a robust standard for distinguishing signal from noise in modern computer vision benchmarks.
Mar 26, 2026

Efficient Detection of Bad Benchmark Items with Novel Scalability Coefficients

The validity of assessments, from large-scale AI benchmarks to human classrooms, depends on the quality of individual items, yet modern evaluation instruments often contain thousands of items with minimal psychometric vetting. We introduce a new family of nonparametric scalability coefficients based on interitem isotonic regression for efficiently detecting globally bad items (e.g., miskeyed, ambiguously worded, or construct-misaligned). The central contribution is the signed isotonic R2R^2, which measures the maximal proportion of variance in one item explainable by a monotone function of another while preserving the direction of association via Kendall's ττ. Aggregating these pairwise coefficients yields item-level scores that sharply separate problematic items from acceptable ones without assuming linearity or committing to a parametric item response model. We show that the signed isotonic R2R^2 is extremal among monotone predictors (it extracts the strongest possible monotone signal between any two items) and show that this optimality property translates directly into practical screening power. Across three AI benchmark datasets (HS Math, GSM8K, MMLU) and two human assessment datasets, the signed isotonic R2R^2 consistently achieves top-tier AUC for ranking bad items above good ones, outperforming or matching a comprehensive battery of classical test theory, item response theory, and dimensionality-based diagnostics. Crucially, the method remains robust under the small-n/large-p conditions typical of AI evaluation, requires only bivariate monotone fits computable in seconds, and handles mixed item types (binary, ordinal, continuous) without modification. It is a lightweight, model-agnostic filter that can materially reduce the reviewer effort needed to find flawed items in modern large-scale evaluation regimes.
Mar 24, 2026

LLM Olympiad: Why Model Evaluation Needs a Sealed Exam

Benchmarks and leaderboards are how NLP most often communicates progress, but in the LLM era they are increasingly easy to misread. Scores can reflect benchmark-chasing, hidden evaluation choices, or accidental exposure to test content -- not just broad capability. Closed benchmarks delay some of these issues, but reduce transparency and make it harder for the community to learn from results. We argue for a complementary practice: an Olympiad-style evaluation event where problems are sealed until evaluation, submissions are frozen in advance, and all entries run through one standardized harness. After scoring, the full task set and evaluation code are released so results can be reproduced and audited. This design aims to make strong performance harder to ``manufacture'' and easier to trust.
Mar 23, 2026

Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education: Contamination Sensitivity and Score Confidence in LLM Benchmarks

Public benchmarks increasingly govern how large language models (LLMs) are ranked, selected, and deployed. We frame this benchmark-centered regime as Silicon Bureaucracy and AI Test-Oriented Education, and argue that it rests on a fragile assumption: that benchmark scores directly reflect genuine generalization. In practice, however, such scores may conflate exam-oriented competence with principled capability, especially when contamination and semantic leakage are difficult to exclude from modern training pipelines. We therefore propose an audit framework for analyzing contamination sensitivity and score confidence in LLM benchmarks. Using a router-worker setup, we compare a clean-control condition with noisy conditions in which benchmark problems are systematically deleted, rewritten, and perturbed before being passed downstream. For a genuinely clean benchmark, noisy conditions should not consistently outperform the clean-control baseline. Yet across multiple models, we find widespread but heterogeneous above-baseline gains under noisy conditions, indicating that benchmark-related cues may be reassembled and can reactivate contamination-related memory. These results suggest that similar benchmark scores may carry substantially different levels of confidence. Rather than rejecting benchmarks altogether, we argue that benchmark-based evaluation should be supplemented with explicit audits of contamination sensitivity and score confidence.
Mar 21, 2026

BenchBench: Benchmarking Automated Benchmark Generation

Benchmarks are the de facto standard for tracking progress in large language models (LLMs), yet static test sets can rapidly saturate, become vulnerable to contamination, and are costly to refresh. Scalable evaluation of open-ended items often relies on LLM judges, introducing additional sources of bias and prompt sensitivity. We argue that evaluation must extend beyond how well models answer benchmarks to how well models design them. We introduce BenchBench, a three-stage pipeline and dataset for benchmarking automated benchmark generation: (i) extract structured domain cards from seed benchmarks, (ii) prompt multiple designer LLMs to generate quota-controlled suites, and (iii) validate items with a multi-model answerer panel using exact/numeric/symbolic verifiers when possible and rubric-guided judging otherwise, yielding designer--answerer matrices with item-level quality flags and psychometric diagnostics. Across nine variants spanning computer science, mathematics, medicine, and theory-of-mind reasoning (including multilingual and multimodal settings), we generate 16.7K items, retain ~15K core items post-filtering, and produce ~152K graded model--item responses. BenchBench shows that benchmark-design ability is only moderately correlated with answer-time strength (Spearman rho 0.37), invalidity is negatively associated with discrimination (Pearson r0.62), and the resulting designer--answerer matrices enable scalable audits of format/modality/language fidelity and suite-dependent self/family interactions. The project is available at: https://github.com/koanatakiyo/BenchBench.
Mar 21, 2026

Evaluating Uplift Modeling under Structural Biases: Insights into Metric Stability and Model Robustness

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate the incremental effect of an intervention by modeling how customer behavior would change under alternative treatments using counterfactual analysis. However, real-world marketing data often exhibit various biases, such as selection bias, spillover effects, measurement error, and unobserved confounding. These biases can adversely affect both the accuracy of uplift estimation and the validity of evaluation metrics. Despite the importance of bias-aware assessment, there remains a lack of systematic studies evaluating how different models and metrics perform under such biased conditions. To bridge this gap, we design a systematic benchmarking framework. Unlike standard predictive tasks, real-world uplift datasets inherently lack counterfactual ground truth. This limitation renders the direct validation of evaluation metrics infeasible and prevents the precise quantification of biases. Therefore, a semi-synthetic approach serves as a critical enabler for systematic benchmarking. This approach effectively bridges the gap by retaining real-world feature dependencies while providing the ground truth needed to isolate structural biases. Our investigations reveal that (i) uplift targeting and prediction can manifest as distinct objectives, where proficiency in one does not ensure efficacy in the other; (ii) while many models exhibit inconsistent performance under diverse biases, TARNet shows notable robustness, providing insights for subsequent model design; (iii) the stability of evaluation metrics is linked to their mathematical alignment with the ATE, suggesting that ATE-approximating metrics yield more consistent model rankings under structural data imperfections. These findings suggest the need for more robust uplift models and evaluation metrics under real-world data imperfections.
Mar 20, 2026

LiveClawBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Complex, Real-World Assistant Tasks

OpenClaw-style personal assistants extend LLM agents from isolated tool use to open-ended, stateful, and personalized software environments. Evaluating these assistants is fundamentally a fidelity problem: benchmarks must be faithful both to the distribution of real assistant tasks and to the execution semantics of the environments in which those tasks unfold. Existing benchmarks often lose fidelity in one dimension or the other. Their task distributions are shaped by what is easy to isolate, mock, and verify, underrepresenting real-world difficulties such as cross-service dependency, contaminated state, implicit intent, and runtime change. Their environments are either live but hard to reproduce, or reproducible but reduced to endpoint-level stubs that remove sessions, artifacts, state transitions, and downstream side effects. We introduce LiveClawBench, a benchmark designed around this dual-fidelity requirement. LiveClawBench combines a Triple-Axis Complexity Framework for difficulty-driven task construction with reproducible full-stack mock applications that preserve stateful execution semantics. With 134 executable cases across 10 domains with 22 mocked services, LiveClawBench supports controlled, extensible, and factor-level diagnostic evaluation of realistic agentic tasks. We release the benchmark resources: (1) Benchmark: https://github.com/Mosi-AI/LiveClawBench; (2) Leaderboard: https://mosi-ai.github.io/LiveClawBench/leaderboard/; (3) Trajectories: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Mosi-AI/LiveClawbench-trajectories
Mar 18, 2026

The Validity Gap in Health AI Evaluation: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Benchmark Composition

Background: Clinical trials rely on transparent inclusion criteria to ensure generalizability. In contrast, benchmarks validating health-related large language models (LLMs) rarely characterize the "patient" or "query" populations they contain. Without defined composition, aggregate performance metrics may misrepresent model readiness for clinical use. Methods: We analyzed 18,707 consumer health queries across six public benchmarks using LLMs as automated coding instruments to apply a standardized 16-field taxonomy profiling context, topic, and intent. Results: We identified a structural "validity gap." While benchmarks have evolved from static retrieval to interactive dialogue, clinical composition remains misaligned with real-world needs. Although 42% of the corpus referenced objective data, this was polarized toward wellness-focused wearable signals (17.7%); complex diagnostic inputs remained rare, including laboratory values (5.2%), imaging (3.8%), and raw medical records (0.6%). Safety-critical scenarios were effectively absent: suicide/self-harm queries comprised <0.7% of the corpus and chronic disease management only 5.5%. Benchmarks also neglected vulnerable populations (pediatrics/older adults <11%) and global health needs. Conclusions: Evaluation benchmarks remain misaligned with real-world clinical needs, lacking raw clinical artifacts, adequate representation of vulnerable populations, and longitudinal chronic care scenarios. The field must adopt standardized query profiling--analogous to clinical trial reporting--to align evaluation with the full complexity of clinical practice.
Mar 17, 2026

Who Benchmarks the Benchmarks? A Case Study of LLM Evaluation in Icelandic

This paper evaluates current Large Language Model (LLM) benchmarking for Icelandic, identifies problems, and calls for improved evaluation methods in low/medium-resource languages in particular. We show that benchmarks that include synthetic or machine-translated data that have not been verified in any way, commonly contain severely flawed test examples that are likely to skew the results and undermine the tests' validity. We warn against the use of such methods without verification in low/medium-resource settings as the translation quality can, at best, only be as good as MT quality for a given language at any given time. Indeed, the results of our quantitative error analysis on existing benchmarks for Icelandic show clear differences between human-authored/-translated benchmarks vs. synthetic or machine-translated benchmarks.
Mar 9, 2026

Leaderboard Incentives: Model Rankings under Strategic Post-Training

Influential benchmarks incentivize competing model developers to strategically allocate post-training resources toward improvements on the leaderboard, a phenomenon dubbed benchmaxxing or training on the test task. In this work, we initiate a principled study of the incentive structure that benchmarks induce. We model benchmarking as a Stackelberg game between a benchmark designer who chooses an evaluation protocol and multiple model developers who compete simultaneously in a subgame given by the designer's choice. Each competitor has a model of unknown latent quality and can inflate its observed score by allocating resources to benchmark-specific improvements. First, we prove that current benchmarks induce games for which no Nash equilibrium between model developers exists. This result suggests one explanation for why current practice leads to misaligned incentives, prompting model developers to strategize in opaque ways. However, we prove that under mild conditions, a recently proposed evaluation protocol, called tune-before-test, induces a benchmark with a unique Nash equilibrium that ranks models by latent quality. This positive result demonstrates that benchmarks need not set bad incentives, even if current evaluations do.
Mar 8, 2026

Safety Under Scaffolding: How Evaluation Conditions Shape Measured Safety

Safety benchmarks usually test "bare" models that receive prompts and output responses, but real-world deployments "wrap" those models in complex scaffolds. How much do these scaffolds affect model safety as measured by benchmarks? We test six leading models on four pre-registered safety benchmarks with a direct API and three scaffolds: ReAct, multi-agent, and map-reduce. We conducted 60,112 scored evaluations. On average, how safety is measured matters more than scaffolding does: we find that using a multiple choice vs. open-ended format for otherwise-identical benchmark items changes measured safety by about 5-20 percentage points (pp). The two formats are scored with different methods (answer extraction and an LLM judge), so the gap is due to measurement rather than differences in latent safety. Using a heuristic to classify model refusals would have led to different findings in four of five cases. Benchmark choice explains 15.1% of the variation in outcomes; scaffold architecture explains 0.5%, about 33x less. We find that map-reduce scaffolds, a form of structure-destroying delegation that strips answer options by decomposing prompts, reduce pooled measured safety by 7.3 pp (95% CI: 6.4 to 8.1). The pooled effects for ReAct and multi-agent scaffolds are within our pre-registered +/-2 pp margin of equivalence. However, there are large differences across models for specific benchmarks and scaffolds that are hidden by pooled estimates: for example, on the same sycophancy benchmark items, Opus 4.6 has 16.8 pp lower measured safety with a map-reduce scaffold, while Llama 4 has 18.8 pp higher measured safety. Composite reliability is G = 0.251 (95% CI: [0.000, 0.879]). This wide confidence interval, which spans "of little use" to "very good", does not support using a single composite measure of model safety as the basis for go/no-go decisions about model deployment.
Mar 4, 2026

The Arrival of AGI? When Expert Personas Exceed Expert Benchmarks

Do expert personas improve language model performance? The Wharton Generative AI Lab reports that they do not, broadcasting to millions via social media the recommendation that practitioners abandon a technique recommended by Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. We demonstrate that this null finding was structurally predictable. Five core mechanisms precluded detection before data collection began: baseline contamination elevating the starting point to near-ceiling, system prompt hierarchy subordinating experimental manipulation, impossible expert specifications collapsing to generic competence, format constraints suppressing reasoning processes, and provider exclusion limiting generalizability. Controlled trials correcting these limitations reveal what the original design obscured. To test this, we selected the GPQA Diamond hardest questions to prevent baseline pattern matching, forcing reliance on genuine expert reasoning. On items with valid key answers, expert personas achieve ceiling accuracy. They eliminated all baseline errors through confidence amplification. Furthermore, forensic examination of model divergence identified that half of the hardest GPQA items contain chemically or logically indefensible answers. The model's CoT revealed reasoning away from impossible answers, yielding penalization for accurate chemistry. These findings recontextualize the original null results. Methodologically sound persona research faces measurement constraints imposed by benchmark validity limitations. Answering the persona question requires evaluation infrastructure the field does not yet possess.
Mar 3, 2026

Quantifying Ranking Instability Across Evaluation Protocol Axes in Gene Regulatory Network Benchmarking

Benchmark rankings are routinely used to justify scientific claims about method quality in gene regulatory network (GRN) inference, yet the stability of these rankings under plausible evaluation protocol choices is rarely examined. We present a systematic diagnostic framework for measuring ranking instability under protocol shift, including decomposition tools that separate base rate effects from discrimination effects. Using existing single cell GRN benchmark outputs across three human tissues and six inference methods, we quantify pairwise reversal rates across four protocol axes: candidate set restriction (16.3 percent, 95 percent CI 11.0 to 23.4 percent), tissue context (19.3 percent), reference network choice (32.1 percent), and symbol mapping policy (0.0 percent). A permutation null confirms that observed reversal rates are far below random order expectations (0.163 versus null mean 0.500), indicating partially stable but non invariant ranking structure. Our decomposition reveals that reversals are driven by changes in the relative discrimination ability of methods rather than by base rate inflation, a finding that challenges a common implicit assumption in GRN benchmarking. We propose concrete reporting practices for stability aware evaluation and provide a diagnostic toolkit for identifying method pairs at risk of reversal.
Mar 3, 2026

Beyond Task Completion: Revealing Corrupt Success in LLM Agents through Procedure-Aware Evaluation

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly adopted in high-stakes settings, but current benchmarks evaluate mainly whether a task was completed, not how. We introduce Procedure-Aware Evaluation (PAE), a framework that formalizes agent procedures as structured observations and exposes consistency relationships between what agents observe, communicate, and execute. PAE evaluates agents along complementary axes (Utility, Efficiency, Interaction Quality, Procedural Integrity) and applies multi-dimensional gating that categorically disqualifies corrupt outcomes. Evaluating state-of-the-art LLM agents on tau-bench yields findings at the axis, compliance, and benchmark levels. At the axis level, the dimensions capture non-redundant failure modes: utility masks reliability gaps, speed does not imply precision, and conciseness does not predict intent adherence. At the procedural compliance level, 27-78% of benchmark reported successes are corrupt successes concealing violations across interaction and integrity. Furthermore, gating substantially collapses Pass^4 rate and affects model rankings. The analysis of corrupt success cases reveals distinctive per-model failure signatures: GPT-5 spreads errors across policy, execution, and intent dimensions; Kimi-K2-Thinking concentrates 78% of violations in policy faithfulness and compliance; and Mistral-Large-3 is dominated by faithfulness failures. At the benchmark level, our analysis exposes structural flaws in the benchmark design, including task scope gaps, contradictory reward signals, and simulator artifacts that produce accidental successes.
Mar 3, 2026

Benchmark of Benchmarks: Unpacking Influence and Code Repository Quality in LLM Safety Benchmarks

The rapid expansion of research in LLM safety presents challenges in tracking advancements, making benchmarks important evaluation infrastructures for identifying key trends and facilitating systematic comparisons. Yet no systematic assessment exists of their code quality and runnability, nor of what factors are associated with the community's adoption of certain benchmarks over others. To address this gap, we conduct a systematic measurement study of 31 LLM safety benchmarks (covering prompt injection, jailbreak, and hallucination) with 382 non-benchmark papers as a control group, combining automated static analysis, human runnability testing (220+ person-hours), and bibliometric analysis. We find that only 39% of benchmark repositories can run without modification, only 16% provide flawless installation guides, and a mere 6% include ethical considerations despite containing potentially harmful content. These deficiencies persist across the study period with no significant improvement. Analyzing adoption factors, we find that benchmark adoption correlates with author prominence and code runnability, but not with code quality standards such as Pylint score and maintainability, suggesting that the community's benchmark selection does not reward higher coding standards. Based on these results, we identify potential safety and reliability concerns. Some safety benchmark repositories openly expose harmful content, such as successful jailbreak responses, without any ethical warning or access control, effectively serving as unguarded attack resources. Furthermore, when benchmarks require ad-hoc modifications to run, downstream safety evaluations across different papers may not be comparable. We present case studies illustrating these concrete consequences and propose a targeted checklist to help benchmark contributors improve code quality, documentation, and ethical practices.
Feb 27, 2026

AI Evaluation Should Require Standardized Item-Level Data Releases

This position paper argues that standardized item-level benchmark data should become the default infrastructure for AI evaluation. Current evaluations suffer from underspecified item selection, construct misalignment, and poor generalization; a disproportionate focus on aggregate model scores compounds these failures by keeping them undetected and unfixable. Without item-level evidence, validity claims cannot be assessed, resulting in inflated capability claims, misdirected research, and unwarranted trust in deployed systems. Our position is that valid evaluation requires empirical evidence from item-level benchmark data, including item content, test conditions, model responses, and item-level score statistics, and that the standardized release of such data should be treated as core AI evaluation infrastructure. Such releases also enable transparency, replicability, and auditability of evaluation results. To show that the norm is both feasible and consequential, we construct OpenEval, an item-level repository of 10.7M+ responses across 160K+ items from widely-used benchmarks, under a unified schema that the AI evaluation community can build upon. We demonstrate how item-level data can identify low-quality items, document construct misalignment, and recover validity evidence about benchmarks' internal structure. We address objections concerning contamination and coordination burden, and show that both are tractable relative to the costs of decisions made on inadequately validated evaluative claims.
Feb 25, 2026

BenchBrowser: Retrieving Evidence for Evaluating Benchmark Validity

Do language model benchmarks actually measure what practitioners intend them to ? High-level metadata is too coarse to convey the granular reality of benchmarks: a "poetry" benchmark may never test for haikus, while "instruction-following" benchmarks will often test for an arbitrary mix of skills. This opacity makes verifying alignment with practitioner goals a laborious process, risking an illusion of competence even when models fail on untested facets of user interests. We introduce BenchBrowser, a retriever that surfaces evaluation items relevant to natural language use cases over 20 benchmark suites. Validated by a human study confirming high retrieval precision, BenchBrowser generates evidence to help practitioners diagnose low content validity (narrow coverage of a capability's facets) and low convergent validity (lack of stable rankings when measuring the same capability). BenchBrowser, thus, helps quantify a critical gap between practitioner intent and what benchmarks actually test.
Nov 27, 2025

Unexplored flaws in multiple-choice VQA make benchmarking unreliable

Previous works identify sensitivity to option order as a key issue in multiple-choice VQA (MC-VQA) evaluation and propose protocols to mitigate this effect. We show that such mitigation is insufficient to ensure the validity of MC-VQA as a reliable benchmark for Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLMs): performance remains highly sensitive to semantically neutral prompt format choices that are not controlled by current benchmarks. In a large-scale study spanning seven MLLMs and five MC-VQAs datasets, we find frequent rank reversals even under order-invariant evaluation. These reversals arise when we systematically vary option ID sets, delimiters, and separators, yielding 48 semantically equivalent prompt formats. Mechanistic analyses trace this instability to low-level language modeling effects: tokenizer-induced fusion or removal of option ID tokens introduces corrupted option ID tokens into the input sequence, while the choice of option ID sets directly affects the reliability of attention patterns for option selection. Accordingly, MC-VQA rankings correlate weakly with open-ended evaluation, indicating that MC-VQA reflects option-selection dynamics in addition to multimodal reasoning. These findings identify prompt formatting as a major, previously under-controlled confounder in MC-VQA benchmarking and motivate evaluation protocols that explicitly control prompt format sensitivity.
Oct 27, 2025

The Benchmarking Epistemology: Validity Theory for Evaluating Machine Learning Models

Predictive benchmarking, evaluating machine learning models based on predictive performance and competitive ranking, is central to machine learning research and scientific inquiry. However, benchmark scores at best measure performance relative to a specific dataset and learning problem. Drawing substantial scientific inferences requires additional assumptions. Adapting ideas from psychological validity theory, we propose validity conditions that make these assumptions explicit. In two case studies---ImageNet and the Fragile Families Challenge---we show how benchmark results can support inferences about research progress and limits of predictability, situating predictive benchmarking as a distinct epistemic practice in machine learning.
Sep 30, 2025

fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly with the rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage or overlook real-world settings such as tasks with covariates. Their aggregation procedures frequently lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks lack consistent evaluation infrastructure or are too rigid for integration into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark of 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for forecasting evaluation emphasizing reproducibility and integration with existing workflows. Using fev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report performance along two dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for pretrained, statistical, and baseline models and identify promising future research directions.
Sep 27, 2025

WirelessMathBench-XL: An Auditable Benchmark for Wireless Mathematical Reasoning

Technical-domain benchmarks constructed from arXiv papers can overlap the same public text used in LLM pretraining. Auditing this risk at training-corpus scale requires searching billions of corpus n-grams while retaining per-item evidence that users can inspect and recompute. We contribute a reverse-probe audit at a fixed 13-gram threshold: it indexes benchmark prompts, streams public pretraining corpora, and emits per-problem prompt-surface lexical-overlap metadata with memory that scales with the benchmark. We instantiate the protocol in WirelessMathBench-XL, a 4,027-problem wireless mathematical-reasoning benchmark built from 836 retained arXiv papers across 20 subfields. Against 12.9B streamed 13-grams from RedPajama-arXiv, the audit identifies a strict zero-hit view S0 covering 3,853 problems (95.7%). Filtering to S0 changes accuracy by less than 1 pp for every evaluated model; frontier calibration rows form one high-accuracy cluster between 86.5% and 91.3%, not a resolved rank order. Only 30/800 test items carry detected overlap. Under an all-flagged-correct counterfactual, their largest possible positive score inflation is 0.31-0.51 pp for the frontier rows, so full-versus-S0 is a bounded, structurally underpowered stability summary rather than a contamination-effect test or cleanliness claim. The audit channel does not cover paraphrase, target-answer, post-training, or closed-corpus exposure. The release includes source-paper identifiers, verifier-facing ground truths, audit and threshold metadata, filtered views, a paper-disjoint sensitivity view, evaluation traces, paired-bootstrap scripts, training recipes, Croissant metadata, and a Datasheet for Datasets.
Apr 10, 2025

Who Benchmarks the Benchmarks? Towards Comprehensive Evaluation of Commonsense Reasoning Benchmarks

Commonsense reasoning is a key language model capability, as it is purportedly a prerequisite for many basic tasks, unlike specific factual knowledge. It is often measured with multiple-choice questions (MCQ) benchmarks, e.g. HellaSwag and PIQA. Some of these benchmarks, however, are outdated and contain numerous validity issues. We illustrate some typical validity issues with a case study on HellaSwag, one of the most popular and problematic benchmarks for commonsense reasoning. The issues we find range from basic ungrammaticality and numerous typos to misleading prompts or equally correct options. We show that if we remove question prompts or replace them with "Lorem ipsum dolor...", about 68% of model predictions do not change. We argue that this occurs due to inner flaws in the benchmark, not mere contamination that might be present in some models. Since benchmark scores are an essential part of model selection in both research and commercial applications, these issues can have severe consequences. Based on our findings, we propose BenCheck, a package for benchmark validity analysis that encapsulates the main checks performed in our case study and can be used to audit commonsense reasoning benchmarks. We apply these checks to PIQA, Global PIQA, and Winogrande.
Mar 9, 2025

Is Your Benchmark Still Useful? Dynamic Benchmarking for Code Language Models

In this paper, we tackle a critical challenge in model evaluation: how to keep code benchmarks useful when models might have already seen them during training. We introduce a novel solution, dynamic benchmarking framework, to address this challenge. Given a code understanding or reasoning benchmark, our framework dynamically transforms each input, i.e., programs, with various semantic-preserving mutations to build a syntactically new while semantically identical benchmark. We evaluated 10 popular language models on our dynamic benchmarks. Our evaluation reveals several interesting or surprising findings: (1) all models perform significantly worse than before, (2) the ranking between some models shifts dramatically, and (3) dynamic benchmarks can resist against the data contamination problem.
Feb 24, 2025

GuidedBench: Measuring and Mitigating the Evaluation Discrepancies of In-the-wild LLM Jailbreak Methods

Despite the growing interest in jailbreaks as an effective red-teaming tool for building safe and responsible large language models (LLMs), flawed evaluation system designs have led to significant discrepancies in their effectiveness assessments. With a systematic measurement study based on 37 jailbreak studies since 2022, we find that existing evaluation systems lack case-specific criteria, resulting in misleading conclusions about their effectiveness and safety implications. In this paper, we introduce GuidedBench, a novel benchmark comprising a curated harmful question dataset and GuidedEval, an evaluation system integrated with detailed case-by-case evaluation guidelines. Experiments demonstrate that GuidedBench offers more accurate evaluations of jailbreak performance, enabling meaningful comparisons across methods. GuidedEval reduces inter-evaluator variance by at least 76.03%, ensuring reliable and reproducible evaluations. We reveal why existing jailbreak benchmarks fail to evaluate accurately and suggest better evaluation practices.