Causal Inferences

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14 papers in the last four weeks, up 40% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 144

Apr 29, 2026cs.CV

Bridge: Basis-Driven Causal Inference Marries VFMs for Domain Generalization

Detectors often suffer from degraded performance, primarily due to the distributional gap between the source and target domains. This issue is especially evident in single-source domains with limited data, as models tend to rely on confounders (e.g., illumination, co-occurrence, and style) from the source domain, leading to spurious correlations that hinder generalization. To this end, this paper proposes a novel Basis-driven framework for domain generalization, namely \textbf{\textit{Bridge}}, that incorporates causal inference into object detection. By learning the low-rank bases for front-door adjustment, \textbf{\textit{Bridge}} blocks confounders' effects to mitigate spurious correlations, while simultaneously refining representations by filtering redundant and task-irrelevant components. \textbf{\textit{Bridge}} can be seamlessly integrated with both discriminative (e.g., DINOv2/3, SAM) and generative (e.g., Stable Diffusion) Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Extensive experiments across multiple domain generalization object detection datasets, i.e., Cross-Camera, Adverse Weather, Real-to-Artistic, Diverse Weather Datasets, and Diverse Weather DroneVehicle (our newly augmented real-world UAV-based benchmark), underscore the superiority of our proposed method over previous state-of-the-art approaches. The project page is available at: https://mingbohong.github.io/Bridge/.

Mingbo Hong, Feng Liu, Caroline Gevaert +2

University of Twente · 2Drexel University

Multimodal Domain Generalization Recent Vision Foundation Models Vision Foundation Models Bridge Causal Inferences Autonomous Drones

Apr 28, 2026cs.AI

TrialCalibre: A Fully Automated Causal Engine for RCT Benchmarking and Observational Trial Calibration

Real-world evidence (RWE) studies that emulate target trials increasingly inform regulatory and clinical decisions, yet residual, hard-to-quantify biases still limit their credibility. The recently proposed BenchExCal framework addresses this challenge via a two-stage Benchmark, Expand, Calibrate process, which first compares an observational emulation against an existing randomized controlled trial (RCT), then uses observed divergence to calibrate a second emulation for a new indication causal effect estimation. While methodologically powerful, BenchExCal is resource intensive and difficult to scale. We introduce TrialCalibre, a conceptualized multiagent system designed to automate and scale the BenchExCal workflow. Our framework features specialized agents such as the Orchestrator, Protocol Design, Data Synthesis, Clinical Validation, and Quantitative Calibration Agents that coordi-nate the the overall process. TrialCalibre incorpo-rates agent learning (e.g., RLHF) and knowledge blackboards to support adaptive, auditable, and transparent causal effect estimation.

Amir Habibdoust, Xing Song

Institute for Data Science and Informatics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA. · Department of Biomedical Informatics, Biostatistics, and Medical Epidemiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.

Controlled Study Causal Inferences Emulators

Apr 26, 2026stat.ME

Generative Synthetic Data for Causal Inference: Pitfalls, Remedies, and Opportunities

Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law and an accurate treatment-effect contrast, whereas prediction loss penalizes treatment-effect error only through an overlap-weighted term. Thus, under imbalance or limited overlap, a generator may reproduce dominant observed outcomes while underlearning intervention-relevant contrasts. We formalize this mismatch through sensitivity and loss-decomposition results. Motivated by this causal analysis and intuition, we propose a hybrid synthetic-data framework for causal inference that generates covariates while modeling treatment and outcome mechanisms separately. We evaluate the framework in three settings: ATE preservation under fully generative versus hybrid synthesis, augmentation for practical positivity problems, and diagnostic simulation engines for comparing OR, IPW, AIPW, and TMLE before real-data analysis. We also stress-test the hybrid construction across settings that vary overlap, covariate dimension, seed sample size, and treatment-effect complexity, including a logistic outcome-model misspecification check. Across controlled simulation experiments, hybrid synthesis improves causal fidelity relative to fully generative baselines; the ACTG application shows improved predictive fidelity and potential for finite-sample estimator benchmarking. LLM-based hybrid synthesis is often more faithful than CTGAN in settings where causal fidelity can be assessed.

Yichen Xu

University of California, Berkeley

Causal Inferences Synthetic Data Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Synthetic Training Data Covariates

Apr 25, 2026stat.ML

MOCA: A Transformer-based Modular Causal Inference Framework with One-way Cross-attention and Cutting Feedback

Causal effect estimation from observational data requires careful adjustment for confounding. Classical estimators such as inverse probability weighting and augmented inverse probability weighting are effective under favorable model specification, but may become unstable when treatment assignment and outcome mechanisms are complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional. Machine learning and representation learning approaches improve flexibility, yet joint training can allow outcome-related information to influence treatment-side representations, which is undesirable from a causal perspective. We propose MOCA (Modular One-way Causal Attention), a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through a modular design, and performs confounder adjustment using a one-way attention mechanism. A cutting-feedback strategy, implemented via gradient detachment, prevents the outcome loss from updating the treatment module. This design preserves directional information flow while retaining the representational power of transformer architectures for causal inference. Across multiple simulated scenarios, including linear, nonlinear, heavy-tailed, hidden confounding, and high-dimensional settings, MOCA shows competitive or improved performance relative to IPW, AIPW, X-learner, TARNet, and DragonNet. We further illustrate the method on the Infant Health and Development Program dataset and the Dehejia-Wahba dataset as real-world benchmarks. These results suggest that modular attention with one-way information flow provides a promising and interpretable direction for causal inference with modern deep learning models.

Lei Wang, Debashis Ghosh

Department of Biostatistics and Informatics Colorado School of Public Health

Causal Inferences Latent Confounders Causal Attention Cross-Attention Feedback

Apr 24, 2026cs.AI

Towards Causally Interpretable Wi-Fi CSI-Based Human Activity Recognition with Discrete Latent Compression and LTL Rule Extraction

We address Human Activity Recognition (HAR) utilizing Wi-Fi Channel State Information (CSI) under the joint requirements of causal interpretability, symbolic controllability, and direct operation on high-dimensional raw signals. Deep neural models achieve strong predictive performance on CSI-based HAR (CHAR), yet rely on continuous latent representations that are opaque and difficult to modify; purely symbolic approaches, in contrast, cannot process raw CSI streams. We propose a fully automatic and strictly decoupled pipeline in which CSI magnitude windows are compressed by a categorical variational autoencoder with Gumbel-Softmax latent variables under a capacity-controlled objective, yielding a compact discrete representation. The encoder is then frozen and used as a deterministic mapping to one-hot latent trajectories. Causal discovery is performed on these trajectories to estimate class-conditional temporal dependency graphs. Statistically supported lagged dependencies are translated into Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) rules, producing a fully symbolic and deterministic classifier based solely on rule evaluation and aggregation, without any learned discriminative head. Because rules are defined over discrete latent variables, antenna-specific rule sets can in principle be combined at the symbolic level, enabling structured multi-antenna fusion without retraining the encoder. Results from CHAR Latent Temporal Rule Extraction (CHARL-TRE) indicate competitive performance while preserving explicit temporal and causal structure, showing that deterministic symbolic classification grounded in unsupervised discrete latent representations constitutes a viable alternative to end-to-end black-box models for wireless HAR.

Luca Cotti, Luca Lavazza, Marco Cominelli +10

University of Brescia, Italy. · Università La Sapienza Roma, Italy. · DEIB, Politecnico di Milano, Italy. +8

Human Activity Recognition Wifi Causal Representation Learning Causal Inferences Linear Temporal Logics

Apr 24, 2026cs.LG

From Local to Cluster: A Unified Framework for Causal Discovery with Latent Variables

Latent variables pose a fundamental challenge to causal discovery and inference. Conventional local methods focus on direct neighbors but fail to provide macro level insights. Cluster level methods enable macro causal reasoning but either assume clusters are known a priori or require causal sufficiency. Moreover, directly applying single variable causal discovery methods to cluster level problems violates causal sufficiency and leads to incorrect results. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes L2C (Local to Cluster Causal Abstraction), a unified framework that bridges local structure learning and cluster level causal discovery. Unlike prior work that requires a complete manual assignment of micro variables to clusters, L2C discovers the partition automatically from local causal patterns. Our solution leverages a cluster reduction theorem to reduce any cluster to at most three nodes without loss of causal information, applies local causal discovery to identify direct causes, effects, and V structures in the presence of latent variables, and performs macro level causal inference via cluster level calculus on the learned cluster graph. L2C does not assume causal sufficiency, as latent variables are handled through local discovery. Theoretical analysis shows that L2C ensures soundness, atomic completeness, and computational efficiency. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real world data demonstrate that L2C accurately recovers ground truth clusters and achieves superior macro causal effect identification compared to existing baselines.

Zongyu Li

Causal Discovery Methods Causal Inferences Cluster Latent Variable Unified Framework

Apr 24, 2026cs.CL

Fine-Grained Analysis of Shared Syntactic Mechanisms in Language Models

While language models demonstrate sophisticated syntactic capabilities, the extent to which their internal mechanisms align with cross-constructional principles studied in linguistics remains poorly understood. This study investigates whether models employ shared neural mechanisms across different syntactic constructions by applying causal interpretability methods at a granular level. Focusing on filler-gap dependencies and negative polarity item (NPI) licensing, we utilize activation patching to identify the functional roles of specific attention heads and MLP blocks. Our results reveal a highly localized and shared mechanism for filler-gap dependencies located in the early to middle layers, whereas NPI processing exhibits no such unified mechanism. Furthermore, we find that these mechanisms identified by activation patching generalize to out-of-distribution, while distributed alignment search, a supervised interpretability method, is susceptible to overfitting on narrow linguistic distributions. Finally, we validate our findings by demonstrating that the manipulation of the identified components improves model performance on acceptability judgment benchmarks.

Ryoma Kumon, Hitomi Yanaka

1The University of Tokyo · 2RIKEN · 3Tohoku University

Syntactic Structure Linguistics Mechanistic Interpretability Language Modeling Model Activations Causal Inferences

Apr 22, 2026stat.ML

Efficient Symbolic Computations for Identifying Causal Effects

Determining identifiability of causal effects from observational data under latent confounding is a central challenge in causal inference. For linear structural causal models, identifiability of causal effects is decidable through symbolic computation. However, standard approaches based on Gröbner bases become computationally infeasible beyond small settings due to their doubly exponential complexity. In this work, we study how to practically use symbolic computation for deciding rational identifiability. In particular, we present an efficient algorithm that provably finds the lowest degree identifying formulas. For a causal effect of interest, if there exists an identification formula of a prespecified maximal degree, our algorithm returns such a formula in quasi-polynomial time.

Benjamin Hollering, Pratik Misra, Nils Sturma

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Germany · Binghamton University, USA · École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland

Identifiability Causal Inferences Tractability Symbol-Impact Analysis

Apr 22, 2026cs.CV

Dual Causal Inference: Integrating Backdoor Adjustment and Instrumental Variable Learning for Medical VQA

Medical Visual Question Answering (MedVQA) aims to generate clinically reliable answers conditioned on complex medical images and questions. However, existing methods often overfit to superficial cross-modal correlations, neglecting the intrinsic biases embedded in multimodal medical data. Consequently, models become vulnerable to cross-modal confounding effects, severely hindering their ability to provide trustworthy diagnostic reasoning. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Dual Causal Inference (DCI) framework for MedVQA. To the best of our knowledge, DCI is the first unified architecture that integrates Backdoor Adjustment (BDA) and Instrumental Variable (IV) learning to jointly tackle both observable and unobserved confounders. Specifically, we formulate a Structural Causal Model (SCM) where observable cross-modal biases (e.g., frequent visual and textual co-occurrences) are mitigated via BDA, while unobserved confounders are compensated using an IV learned from a shared latent space. To guarantee the validity of the IV, we design mutual information constraints that maximize its dependence on the fused multimodal representations while minimizing its associations with the unobserved confounders and target answers. Through this dual mechanism, DCI extracts deconfounded representations that capture genuine causal relationships. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets, SLAKE, SLAKE-CP, VQA-RAD, and PathVQA, demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing approaches, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Furthermore, qualitative analyses confirm that DCI significantly enhances the interpretability and robustness of cross-modal reasoning by explicitly disentangling true causal effects from spurious cross-modal shortcuts.

Zibo Xu, Qiang Li, Ke Lu +3

Medical Visual Question Answering Multimodal Clinical Data Causal Inferences

Apr 20, 2026cs.LG

Learning Invariant Modality Representation for Robust Multimodal Learning from a Causal Inference Perspective

Multimodal affective computing aims to predict humans' sentiment, emotion, intention, and opinion using language, acoustic, and visual modalities. However, current models often learn spurious correlations that harm generalization under distribution shifts or noisy modalities. To address this, we propose a causal modality-invariant representation (CmIR) learning framework for robust multimodal learning. At its core, we introduce a theoretically grounded disentanglement method that separates each modality into causal invariant representation' and environment-specific spurious representation' from a causal inference perspective. CmIR ensures that the learned invariant representations retain stable predictive relationships with labels across different environments while preserving sufficient information from the raw inputs via invariance constraint, mutual information constraint, and reconstruction constraint. Experiments across multiple multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that CmIR achieves state-of-the-art performance. CmIR particularly excels on out-of-distribution data and noisy data, confirming its robustness and generalizability.

Sijie Mai, Shiqin Han

School of Computer Science, South China Normal University

Multimodal Learning Modalities Causal Inferences

Apr 18, 2026cs.LG

LLM-Extracted Covariates for Clinical Causal Inference: Rethinking Integration Strategies

Causal inference from electronic health records (EHR) is fundamentally limited by unmeasured confounding: critical clinical states such as frailty, goals of care, and mental status are documented in free-text notes but absent from structured data. Large language models can extract these latent confounders as interpretable, structured covariates, yet how to effectively integrate them into causal estimation pipelines has not been systematically studied. Using the MIMIC-IV database with 21,859 sepsis patients, we compare seven covariate-integration strategies for estimating the effect of early vasopressor initiation on 28-day mortality, spanning tabular-only baselines, traditional NLP representations, and three LLM-augmented approaches. A central finding is that not all integration strategies are equally effective: directly augmenting the propensity score model with LLM covariates achieves the best performance, while dual-caliper matching on text-derived categorical distances restricts the donor pool and degrades estimation. In semi-synthetic experiments with known ground-truth effects, LLM-augmented propensity scores reduce estimation bias from 0.0143 to 0.0003 relative to tabular-only methods, and this advantage persists under substantial simulated extraction error. On real data, incorporating LLM-extracted covariates reduces the estimated treatment effect from 0.055 to 0.027, directionally consistent with the CLOVERS randomized trial, and a doubly robust estimator yielding 0.019 confirms the robustness of this finding. Our results offer practical guidance on when and how text-derived covariates improve causal estimation in critical care.

Lei Liu, Jialin Chen, Kathy Macropol

Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Arcadia University Glenside, PA, USA · Department of Computer Science Yale University New Haven, CT, USA

Causal Inferences Covariates Mimic-Iv Datasets Electronic Health Records Sepsis

Apr 17, 2026cs.CV

Real-Time Visual Attribution Streaming in Thinking Model

We present an amortized framework for real-time visual attribution streaming in multimodal thinking models. When these models generate code from a screenshot or solve math problems from images, their long reasoning traces should be grounded in visual evidence. However, verifying this reliance is challenging: faithful causal methods require costly repeated backward passes or perturbations, while raw attention maps offer instant access, they lack causal validity. To resolve this, we introduce an amortized approach that learns to estimate the causal effects of semantic regions directly from the rich signals encoded in attention features. Across five diverse benchmarks and four thinking models, our approach achieves faithfulness comparable to exhaustive causal methods while enabling visual attribution streaming, where users observe grounding evidence as the model reasons, not after. Our results demonstrate that real-time, faithful attribution in multimodal thinking models is achievable through lightweight learning, not brute-force computation.

Seil Kang, Woojung Han, Junhyeok Kim +3

YYonsei University. · AAmazon.

Visual Evidence Thoughts Real-Time Systems Causal Inferences

Apr 16, 2026cs.LG

Generative Augmented Inference

Large language models enable inexpensive AI-generated annotations, but using them reliably for causal inference remains challenging. Naively pooling AI and human data induces bias, while existing methods such as Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI; Angelopoulos et al., 2023a) treat AI outputs as proxies of true labels -- an assumption often violated for generative model outputs in practice. We propose Generative Augmented Inference (GAI), a framework that treats AI outputs as general, potentially high-dimensional informative features for learning human labels rather than as surrogates. GAI flexibly models this relationship using nonparametric methods, enabling consistent estimation and valid inference from combined human and AI data. We establish asymptotic normality and show that, under random labeling, GAI strictly improves asymptotic efficiency over human-data-only estimation whenever AI outputs are informative for true labels. Empirical studies on real-world datasets demonstrate that GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality across diverse generative data sources relative to human-only and PPI-based estimation.

Cheng Lu, Mengxin Wang, Dennis J. Zhang +1

Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, USA · Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, USA · W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, USA

Generative Artificial Intelligence Agentic Inference Causal Inferences Generative Models

Apr 11, 2026cs.AI

Zero-shot World Models Are Developmentally Efficient Learners

Young children demonstrate early abilities to understand their physical world, estimating depth, motion, object coherence, interactions, and many other aspects of physical scene understanding. Children are both data-efficient and flexible cognitive systems, creating competence despite extremely limited training data, while generalizing to myriad untrained tasks -- a major challenge even for today's best AI systems. Here we introduce a novel computational hypothesis for these abilities, the Zero-shot World Model (ZWM). ZWM is based on three principles: a sparse temporally-factored predictor that decouples appearance from dynamics; zero-shot estimation through approximate causal inference; and composition of inferences to build more complex abilities. We show that ZWM can be learned from the first-person experience of a single child, rapidly generating competence across multiple physical understanding benchmarks. It also shows progressive, staged emergence of capacities during learning and builds brain-like internal representations. Our work presents a blueprint for efficient and flexible learning from human-scale data, advancing both a computational account of children's early physical understanding and a path toward data-efficient AI systems.

Khai Loong Aw, Klemen Kotar, Wanhee Lee +6

Stanford University

World Models Early Layers Causal Inferences

Mar 17, 2026cs.LG

DISCOVER: A Solver for Distributional Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend this setting by optimizing an optimal transport objective that balances proximity to a factual input distribution and alignment to a target output distribution, with statistical certification via chance constrained bounds. However, DCE relies on gradient based optimization, while many real-world tabular pipelines are dominated by non-differentiable models. We propose DISCOVER, a model-agnostic solver for distributional counterfactual explanations. DISCOVER preserves the original DCE objective and certification while replacing gradient descent with a budgeted propose-and-select search paradigm. It exploits a sample-wise decomposition of the transport objective to compute per-row impact scores and enforce a top-k intervention budget, focusing edits on the most influential samples. To guide candidate generation without predictor gradients, DISCOVER introduces an OT-guided cone sampling primitive driven by input-side transport geometry. Experiments on multiple tabular datasets demonstrate strong joint alignment of input and output distributions, extending distributional counterfactual reasoning to modern black box learning pipelines. A code repository is available at: https://github.com/VALHALLA9/Discover.

Yikai Gu, Lele Cao, Bo Zhao +2

Technical University of Denmark · Scholar7 · Aalto University +1

Counterfactual Explanation Counterfactuals Causal Inferences Solvers Gradient Descent

Mar 2, 2026cs.LG

Partial Causal Structure Learning for Valid Selective Conformal Inference under Interventions

Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics, exchangeability often holds only within subsets of interventions that leave a target variable "unaffected" (e.g., non-descendants of an intervened node in a causal graph). We study the practical regime where this invariance structure is unknown and must be estimated from data. Our main result quantifies how coverage degrades when the estimated safe calibration set accidentally includes interventions that affect the target, and gives a conservative correction when an upper bound on this error is available. Rather than learning a full causal graph, we learn only the intervention-target relationships needed to choose calibration interventions. We give algorithms for this partial learning task and evaluate them on synthetic structural equation models and Replogle K562 CRISPR-interference data, where the experiments illustrate synthetic gains from selective calibration and finite-sample tradeoffs on real perturbation screens.

Amir Asiaee, Kavey Aryan, James P. Long

Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA · Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK · Department of Biostatistics, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA

Conformal Inference Causal Inferences Online Conformal Prediction Causal Graph

Mar 1, 2026stat.ME

Robust Weighted Triangulation of Causal Effects Under Model Uncertainty

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and possibly partially overlapping, sets of identifying assumptions to infer the causal effect, a process known as triangulation. Principled methods for triangulation, however, remain underdeveloped. Here, we develop a framework for causal effect triangulation that combines model testability methods from causal discovery with statistical inference methods from semiparametric theory, while avoiding explicit model selection and post-selection inference problems. We propose a triangulation functional that combines identified functionals from each model with data-driven measures of model validity. We provide a bound on the distance of the functional from the true causal effect along with conditions under which this distance can be taken to zero. Finally, we derive valid statistical inference for this functional. Our framework formalizes robustness under causal pluralism without requiring agreement across models or commitment to a single specification. We demonstrate its performance through simulations and an empirical application.

Rohit Bhattacharya, Ina Ocelli, Ted Westling

Dept. of Computer Science, Williams College · Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Causal Inferences Triangulations Impact Analysis

Feb 24, 2026cs.AI

CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification, formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions, and estimation, implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 174 queries across 139 real-world datasets, curated from 73 peer-reviewed research papers and three widely used causal-inference textbooks. For each query, a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 81% of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 38%, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis Syrgkanis

Stanford University

Causal Inferences Causal Multi-Dimensional Evaluation

Jan 30, 2026cs.LG

Uncertainty-aware Causal Decision Making via Effect Bound Decomposition

Causal inference from observational data can provide strong evidence for finding the best action in a decision-making scenario without having to perform expensive randomized trials. The causal effect of an action is often not pointwise identifiable even with infinite data due to unobserved confounding factors. Furthermore, having only finitely many samples adds another layer of uncertainty to causal effect estimation. Several existing methods can be used to obtain upper and lower bounds to the causal effect, ranging from symbolic methods to the more recent neural network-based approaches, which implicitly incorporate both sources of uncertainty. However, these methods do not inform whether collecting more samples may or may not help identify the best action from observational data, leaving experts in the dark about their data collection strategies. We address this problem with a novel framework that can distinguish the range of causal effect values that might be eliminated by collecting more samples from the range of values that, with high probability, cannot be eliminated with more observational samples. We show that this partitioning can be obtained by solving max-min and min-max optimization problems. We leverage neural causal models to approximately recover this decomposition in practice. We demonstrate via experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets that our algorithm can determine when collecting more samples will not help determine the best action. Our framework can help practitioners decide when to resort to non-observational studies or seek to measure some of the unmeasured confounders for optimal decision-making.

Md Musfiqur Rahman, Ziwei Jiang, Hilaf Hasson +1

Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University · Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University · Cohesity

Causal Inferences Causal Modeling Latent Confounders Decomposition

Jan 23, 2026stat.ME

Falsifying Discriminant Validity of Predictive Algorithms

Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended. These exposés highlight the need to identify when algorithms predict unintended quantities - ideally before deploying them into consequential settings. We propose a falsification framework that provides a principled statistical test for discriminant validity: the requirement that an algorithm predict intended outcomes better than impermissible ones. Drawing on falsification practices from causal inference, econometrics, and psychometrics, our framework compares calibrated prediction losses across outcomes to assess whether the algorithm exhibits discriminant validity with respect to a specified impermissible proxy. In settings where the target outcome is difficult to observe, multiple permissible proxy outcomes may be available; our framework accommodates both this setting and the case with a single permissible proxy. Throughout we use nonparametric hypothesis testing methods that make minimal assumptions on the data-generating process. We illustrate the method in an admissions setting, where the framework establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but fails to establish discriminant validity with respect to race. This demonstrates how falsification can serve as an early validity check. We also provide analysis in a criminal justice setting, where we highlight the limitations of our framework and emphasize the need for complementary approaches to assess other aspects of construct validity and external validity.

Amanda Coston

Statistics Department University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA, USA

Falsehood Validation Discriminative Causal Inferences

Oct 9, 2025cs.LG

Spatial Deconfounder: Interference-Aware Deconfounding for Spatial Causal Inference

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate standard no-interference assumptions. While existing methods typically address one by assuming away the other, we show they are deeply connected: interference reveals structure in the latent confounder. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Spatial Deconfounder, a two-stage method that reconstructs a substitute confounder from local treatment vectors using a conditional variational autoencoder (C-VAE) with a spatial prior, then estimates causal effects with a flexible outcome model. We show that this enables nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions--without multiple treatment types or a known latent-field model. Empirically, we extend SpaCE, a benchmark suite for spatial confounding, to include treatment interference, and show that the Spatial Deconfounder consistently improves effect estimation across real-world environmental health and social science datasets. By turning local interference into a multi-cause proxy for latent spatial confounding, our framework advances robust causal inference for spatial data.

Ayush Khot, Miruna Oprescu, Maresa Schröder +2

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign · Cornell University, Cornell Tech · LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) +1

Latent Confounders Causal Inferences Vectors

May 3, 2025cs.LG

Causally Fair Node Classification on Non-IID Graph Data

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recent research has extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but many studies neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses a prevalent challenge in many fair machine learning research, which typically assumes independent and identically distributed (IID) data, from the causal perspective. Specifically, this work targets the circumstance where nodes with different neighborhood structures follow different causal mechanisms, violating the invariance assumptions required for classical structural causal models and do-calculus. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and develop a Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions for causally fair node classification. We establish theoretical soundness under two conditions: Decomposability and Graph Independence. These conditions formalize when causal mechanism heterogeneity can be overcome by constructing a structural representation that restores invariance and facilitates the computation of interventional distributions using do-calculus in non-IID settings. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. Our findings demonstrate the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications and motivate future work on relaxing the classic assumptions in algorithmic fairness.

Yucong Dai, Lu Zhang, Yaowei Hu +2

Clemson University · University of Arkansas · Walmart Inc.

Causal Graph Algorithmic Fairness Causal Inferences Graph Representations

Dec 6, 2024cs.CV

SPARC: Scalable Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness via Causal Conditional Independence

Deep learning models exhibit fairness concerns when predictions are inadvertently influenced by sensitive attributes. However, existing attempts to make Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness optimizable rely on estimating marginal potential outcome probabilities-an approach that fundamentally requires high-dimensional conditional density estimation and breaks down in modalities such as medical images, where the curse of dimensionality renders reliable estimation infeasible. To address this limitation, we reduce the problem of enforcing Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness to a causal conditional independence constraint and prove that satisfying this constraint is sufficient to eliminate the unfair causal effect. This reduction replaces intractable counterfactual estimation with a discriminative optimization objective that remains scalable in high-dimensional settings.

Bowei Tian, Yexiao He, Ziyao Wang +3

University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA · Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA

Algorithmic Fairness Causal Inferences Conditional Independence Deep Learning Intrinsic Dimensionality Objective Functions

Jun 12, 2024cs.LG

Causality for Tabular Data Synthesis: A High-Order Structure Causal Benchmark Framework

Existing evaluations of tabular synthesis models rely primarily on low-order statistics and downstream task performance, leaving multivariate causal relationships that go beyond pairwise correlations largely unmeasured. We argue that a systematic evaluation on high-order structural information is a crucial first step in addressing this issue in tabular data synthesis. In this paper, we present high-order structural causal information as a natural form of prior knowledge and introduce a benchmark framework to evaluate tabular synthesis models. This framework allows us to generate benchmark datasets through a flexible range of data generation processes, allowing for the training of tabular synthesis models using these datasets for further evaluation. We propose multiple benchmark tasks, high-order metrics, and causal inference tasks as downstream tasks for evaluating the quality of synthetic data generated by the trained models. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the benchmark framework in evaluating the model's ability to capture high-order structural causal information. Furthermore, our benchmarking results provide an initial assessment of state-of-the-art tabular synthesis models. These results reveal significant gaps between ideal and actual performance and highlight how baseline methods differ. We position the framework as a controlled diagnostic benchmark for causal fidelity, complementing existing low-order and downstream evaluations. We open source the benchmark framework, including both code and data along with documentation, to support further research in this area.

Zineb Senane, Axel Karlsson, Lele Cao +6

KTH Royal Institute of Technology · Stockholm, Sweden · King AI Labs, Microsoft +2

Synthetic Tabular Data Causal Modeling Causal Inferences Causal Reasoning Diagnostic Benchmark Distributional Fidelity