Causal Reasoning in Videos

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in video understanding, yet their reliance on retrospective summarization and text-centric priors often limits their ability to bridge unobserved causal transitions when applied to Video Event Prediction (VEP). To address this, we propose VepAgent, an agentic framework that integrates causal-transition reasoning with tool-augmented reinforcement learning (RL) for robust VEP. Unlike prior methods that passively project future trajectories from historical dependencies, our approach explicitly models the logical progression from terminal observed states to future events. Specifically, we first construct futurebench-4K, a high-quality chain-of-thought dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) that effectively bridges the causal-logic gap by structuring the deduction of unobserved intermediate states. Subsequently, we develop a diagnostic tool library integrating state tracking, frame retrieval, and region magnification, enabling the agent to dynamically augment reasoning with external tools to recover missing spatio-temporal evidence and resolve visual ambiguities during inference. Moreover, we propose a composite reward mechanism that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy, causal coherence, and reliable prior, compelling the agent to rely on genuine visual grounding rather than superficial textual similarities. Extensive evaluations on FutureBench and NEPBench datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming larger MLLMs and validating the empirical effectiveness of our agentic, future-oriented reasoning paradigm.

Lifelong physical agents must reason over extended interactions where past events continue to shape the world long after they disappear from view. Beyond recalling what happened, agents must infer how history changes the current state and constrains future actions. Yet existing embodied and video-memory benchmarks largely focus on historical retrieval and summary, leaving such history-dependent causal reasoning underexplored. We introduce EMBER-Bench, an egocentric benchmark for cross-event causal reasoning in long-horizon embodied tasks, for which we newly created the task design, video recording, and data annotation. It contains 189 household tasks and 699 QA pairs, spanning task progress, failure recovery, external interventions, and compound long-horizon tasks with distant dependencies and prerequisites, with fine-grained event and causal-chain annotations. EMBER-Bench evaluates reasoning in both directions: next-action prediction selects the next action from history, and causal traceback, given that action, identifies the historical event that makes it necessary. Input ablations that add action logs or privileged cause-and-consequence annotations to the video indicate which kind of historical information models fail to use. Among the 16 evaluated models, the highest overall accuracy is 61.2%, compared with a mean of 98.3% across two human evaluators. At paired decision points, correct traceback is not associated with correct next-action prediction. Adding action logs yields a gain of 1.6 points, whereas cause-and-consequence annotations yield an additional gain of 13.0 points on top of that. These results suggest that extracting causal information from past events and converting it into constraints on current actions remains a key difficulty for long-horizon embodied agents. Project Page: https://zhaoalexgoat.github.io/EMBER-Bench/

Instruction-guided video editing has made significant progress, yet existing methods use multimodal large language models (MLLMs) primarily as semantic encoders, so they often fall short in working with implicit edits that require causal or semantic reasoning. To bridge this fundamental gap in video editing, we propose ThinkV2V, a reasoning-driven framework for complex instruction-guided video editing, explicitly activating MLLM thinking before visual generation. At its core, ThinkV2V builds on a practical MLLM-to-DiT architecture to turn explicit thinking over the source video and instruction into refined conditioning signals for video editing. Further, we equip it with a dedicated training and inference recipe, combining Progressive Curriculum Training, which gradually cultivates the model from basic editing to reasoning-intensive cases, with Inference-Time Thinking Scaling, which iteratively refines candidate prompts and selects the most reliable one, to better elicit reasoning in challenging editing scenarios. We also curate the ThinkV2V-150K dataset and introduce ThinkV2V-Bench to support training and evaluation of video editing with implicit intent and causal reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of ThinkV2V on both complex and standard editing scenarios, in which our 5B-scale DiT model substantially outperforms larger 10B-scale baselines.

Emotional Video Captioning aims to generate factually accurate and emotionally empathetic descriptions. While recent methods have recognized the importance of visual causes to guide emotion perception and caption generation, they fundamentally rely on simple attention matching, which inevitably suffers from {causal redundancy and spurious correlations} in co-occurrence bias (e.g., misclassifying sadness'' as joy'' on a sunny beach), leading to severe shortcut learning from confusing backgrounds. Furthermore, existing evaluations fail to verify whether models have genuinely mastered causal reasoning or merely exploited background confounders. To address these limitations, we first construct {EVC-CauseGround}, a comprehensive benchmark with dense spatio-temporal causal annotations. Crucially, it introduces a carefully selected {Causal-Faithfulness Subset} to explicitly quantify genuine emotion-cause attribution. Second, we propose {Causal-EVC}, an emotion-grounding captioning framework, which introduces a Motion-guided Causal Spatiotemporal Localization module to precisely decouple causal triggers from background confounders. Besides, we introduce an Interpretable Sparse Emotion Routing module. By synthesizing counterfactual representations and formulating a novel counterfactual contrastive objective, we enforce the model to anchor its emotion predictions strictly on authentic causal triggers instead of confusing background. Extensive experiments show that Causal-EVC not only achieves the best performance on semantic metrics but also exhibits significant advantages in the causal-faithfulness subset, which demonstrates that our model could mine emotional cues from genuine visual causes and mitigate co-occurrence bias for interpretable multimodal emotion understanding.

Continuous video counting requires distinguishing new observations from new objects or completed events. We introduce StaMina (State Maintenance), which learns to maintain counting state through state-conditioned updates. Recurrent visual context supports recognition; learned transitions maintain visibility, persistent identities, and completed-event records. A differentiable recurrence trains event transitions over legal paths constrained by count endpoints; visibility and association objectives train the object branch. A multi-source pipeline organizes 39.8K spatial queries and complementary event annotations into counting trajectories. On SVCBench, we evaluate counting adaptation with partial video overlap and held-out groups of linked annotations. Under prefix replay (Full) and persistent streaming (Stream), 4B and 8B models reach 41.9/36.4 and 44.9/38.2 Gaussian Precision Accuracy, respectively. The 8B model gains 10.9/3.2 points over Counting-SFT on the same queries. Matched-graph comparisons isolate phase conditioning and trajectory supervision, assessing training objectives alongside hard decisions. Online video benchmarks and count-conditioned decisions assess online understanding and task eligibility. Project Page: https://PLACEHOLDER.github.io/StaMina/

Despite recent progress in agentic multi-shot video generation, producing coherent and consistent long-form stories remains challenging. Existing agentic pipelines typically rely on textual shot plans or previously generated pixels, yet lack an explicit mechanism for propagating the consequences of story events and maintaining the video world state across shots. As a result, missing visual details may be reconstructed inaccurately, while visual drift may propagate across subsequent shots, undermining both narrative coherence and visual consistency. To address these challenges, we propose StoryEngine, a state-grounded agentic framework for video storytelling. StoryEngine establishes a separation between authoritative semantic plans and unreliable visual observations. Specifically, StoryEngine maintains a structured representation of entity placement and story-relevant states, and propagates event-induced changes to define the intended start and end states of each shot. To visually realize these states, StoryEngine constructs canonical references for recurring entities and environments, and compiles state and visual constraints into executable render plans. Meanwhile, to realize these states correctly, a bounded evaluation-guided repair loop further corrects local state inconsistencies. Together, these mechanisms preserve causal story progression and prevent local visual errors from propagating across shots. To comprehensively evaluate long-form storytelling, we construct a benchmark across diverse scenarios and visual styles, with metrics assessing storytelling quality, narrative coherence, and visual consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that StoryEngine consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods across all evaluation dimensions, validating its effectiveness for coherent and consistent video storytelling.

In this paper, we propose ReactVAU, a Slow-Fast Decoupled Framework for real-time streaming Video Anomaly Understanding (VAU). Existing VAU methods rely on offline inference with global temporal sampling, which violates causality and prevents deployment in live surveillance streams. Conversely, general streaming video models satisfy causal access but dilute rare transient anomalies during memory compression and often invoke heavyweight MLLMs uniformly over long normal intervals. React VAU addresses this gap with three synergistic components: a lightweight Fast Detection Module based on Spatial Grid Folding (SGF) for continuous anomaly filtering; an Anomaly-Aware Persistent Memory (AAPM) that protects critical visual cues from temporal decay; and a heavyweight Slow Reasoning Module that remains dormant during normal streams and is awakened only by suspicious events for semantic verification and causal description. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that ReactVAU operates under strict streaming constraints while simultaneously achieving competitive performance in both anomaly detection and causal reasoning, alongside significantly enhanced computational efficiency by minimizing heavyweight MLLM invocations. Project page is available at https://huiyuiui.github.io/ReactVAU/

Physically Plausible Video Generation (PPVG) seeks to synthesize videos consistent with physical principles, yet remains challenging due to underspecified natural language conditioning. Advanced chain-of-thought (CoT) frameworks augment prompts with physical knowledge. However, such prompts describe physical phenomena holistically, overlooking intermediate states and transition dynamics. In this paper, we reformulate PPVG as event-centric generation by representing physical evolution as a chain of causally connected and physically constrained events. Our framework comprises three key modules: (1) Physics-driven Event Chain Reasoning. This module decomposes physical phenomena into causally connected events represented by evolving scene graphs. Formula-derived physical quantities are bound to relevant objects and interactions, characterizing the direction and magnitude of each event transition. (2) Transition-aware Routed Keyframe Conditioning. This module routes each event to a specialized keyframe synthesis operator for appearance variation or object transformation. Consecutive keyframes are injected as residual guidance during denoising, enabling smooth visual transitions between event-boundary states. (3) Physics-injected Contrastive Semantic Guidance. This module constructs physics-informed positive and counterfactual negative prompts for classifier-free guidance, steering generation toward plausible dynamics and away from physics-violating counterparts. Experiments on PhyGenBench, VideoPhy, PhyWorldBench, and Physics-IQ demonstrate that our framework generates videos with superior physical plausibility across diverse domains.

Recent advances in Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have greatly improved video understanding, yet their ability to reason about human-centered social situations remains limited. Existing benchmarks typically rely on videos with a single observed trajectory, making it difficult to determine whether models truly understand social dynamics or merely exploit recurring narrative patterns. We introduce SocialReasonBench, a video multiple-choice QA benchmark for evaluating socially grounded reasoning in scenarios derived from interactive narratives. Built from gameplay videos of Detroit: Become Human, the benchmark leverages branching storylines where player decisions lead to alternative social outcomes that can be checked against the game's own script, flowchart, and recorded branches. We develop a multi-agent curation pipeline that localizes socially meaningful clips, grounds answer labels in game-state signals, and generates theory-guided questions with diagnostic distractors. SocialReasonBench covers seven reasoning dimensions, including intent recognition, emotional empathy, moral dilemma, counterfactual reasoning, and causal antecedent. Experiments on contemporary LMMs show that models perform reasonably well on basic social understanding but struggle with counterfactual and causal reasoning. Further ablation and diagnostic error analyses reveal that models often depend on incomplete modality cues and fall into reasoning traps such as visual shortcuts, highlighting a gap between observable event recognition and deeper reasoning over latent social states.

Counterfactual video understanding evaluates whether models grasp physical and commonsense regularities. However, existing multiple-choice question (MCQ) benchmarks inadvertently leak target events through their questions and candidate options. This reduces the core challenge from active discovery to text-guided verification. In this paper, we present FADE, an effective training framework for counterfactual discovery and explanation. Our method is built on an evidence-first, two-stage training paradigm. First, evidence-internalized supervised fine-tuning grounds the model's predictions in decisive visual anomalies. Second, we apply a fading-anchor reinforcement learning strategy that progressively removes textual guidance, compelling the model to independently discover and explain evidence. To rigorously evaluate this capability, we also introduce an effective pipeline that converts existing MCQ datasets into aligned MCQ, open-ended question answering (OQA), and captioning tasks without requiring additional data curation. Our simple approach yields strong results. Using Qwen3-VL-8B as the baseline, FADE achieves state-of-the-art strict paired scores across all three tasks on DualityVidQA-test and IPV-Bench, outperforming GPT-5.6. In specific, when transitioning from constrained MCQs to unconstrained OQA and captioning, our model demonstrates remarkable robustness. Its performance retention is 90.4% and 67.4% on DualityVidQA-test-substantially higher than the 48.1% and 30.7% retained by GPT-5.6. We hope this simple framework can serve as a solid baseline for future research in unconstrained counterfactual video understanding.

We introduce Sci-VBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating knowledge- and reasoning-intensive video generation across scientific domains. It contains 1,253 expert-annotated examples spanning 60 subjects across four core disciplines: Natural Science, Healthcare, Humanities & Social Sciences, and Engineering. Each example requires models to generate temporally rich videos that demand scientific reasoning and knowledge-grounded synthesis, going beyond surface-level visual plausibility. We further establish a rubric-based evaluation protocol. Our analysis shows that, under this protocol, both non-expert human evaluators and MLLM-as-Judge systems can achieve relatively high agreement with expert judgments, supporting reproducible evaluation at scale. We benchmark 16 frontier proprietary and open-source models and find that, while automatic perceptual-quality scores cluster tightly across systems, performance on Prompt Grounding and Scientific and Causal Correctness varies substantially, with a pronounced proprietary-open-source gap. These findings show that advances in visual realism have not yet translated into reliable modeling of scientific and causal dynamics.

Reliable visual safety understanding in real-world scenarios demands more than just object recognition; it requires causal reasoning under epistemic uncertainty. While Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) demonstrate impressive semantic alignment on standard benchmarks, they often struggle to distinguish between superficial correlation and genuine forensic logic when grounded in the dynamic, partially observable nature of first-person experiences. Existing evaluations, dominated by third-person surveillance footage and binary classification metrics, fail to expose this cognitive gap. To address this, we introduce EgoSafe-Bench, a benchmark specifically designed to probe forensic reasoning in egocentric safety scenarios. It comprises 12,000 unique evaluation samples, generated by pairing each of the 3,000 video clips with a QA chain governed by our proposed Hierarchical Reasoning Evaluation (HRE) protocol. Unlike standard benchmarks, HRE mandates a rigorous reasoning trajectory from initial feature anchoring to blind-spot deduction and intent inference, thereby enforcing logical consistency and penalizing shortcut-based predictions. Extensive evaluations of state-of-the-art LVLMs (e.g., Qwen3-VL, Gemini, VideoLLaMA 3) reveal a significant perception-reasoning decoupling: models often achieve high descriptive scores but exhibit notable fragility in causal reasoning and logical closure. Our work provides both a challenging dataset and a systematic evaluation framework to foster the development of logically robust video understanding systems.

Recent advances in world models and video generation have given rise to an emerging reasoning paradigm that leverages video generative models to simulate, predict, and reason about real-world dynamics. We redefine this paradigm as Thinking in Video, where video is not merely an output artifact but a medium for constructing, extending, and verifying causal thought. However, this promise remains unverified: convincing rollouts may reflect memorized appearances rather than causal understanding, while existing metrics separate perceptual fidelity from semantic logic. To evaluate whether video generators support such reasoning, we introduce the Causal-Generative Dual-Judge (CGDJ), auditing World Model Consistency from two perspectives. Explicit Causal Perception tests whether a generator reads a video scenario as a reasoning problem through spatio-temporal flattened visual question answering, while Implicit Generative Perception-Prediction Gap evaluates whether it renders the causal consequence as a consistent future video. Applying CGDJ to representative open- and closed-source generators reveals a clear Perception-Prediction Gap: open-source models produce plausible dynamics despite near-zero explicit causal perception, whereas advanced closed-source systems show stronger but still limited alignment between reasoning and generation. Further analysis exposes audio-visual misalignment, where models verbalize correct causal logic more reliably than they render it, challenging the "world simulator" narrative.

Video emotion analysis is typically framed as a static classification problem, treating each clip as an independent labeled unit. However, such a formulation overlooks a key psychological fact: emotions change as a result of cumulative reactions to consecutive causal events. To bridge this gap, we introduce Dynamic Affective Reasoning, the first large-scale benchmark for viewer-centric affect transitions and causal reasoning over consecutive video events. DAR contains 15,087 videos and 36,908 event-aligned affective segments annotated with 27 emotion categories. Unlike existing video-based emotion datasets, DAR presents a new viewer-centric perspective on fine-grained emotional expressions and transitions, and provides dense, temporally grounded, and causally explicit reasoning chains. Based on DAR, we formally define three challenging tasks: affective segmentation, fine-grained emotion classification, and affective reasoning. Complementing this benchmark, we propose DAR-R1, a two-stage framework that combines supervised fine-tuning with Group Relative Policy Optimization. Experiments across 10+ MLLMs show that DAR-R1 sets a new state-of-the-art for dynamic affective reasoning, in terms of both emotional localization and affective reasoning. Project page: https://github.com/Zhang-Zhiyan/DAR.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have rapidly advanced video understanding, achieving strong zero-shot and few-shot recognition across standard benchmarks. Yet their ability to deny an action by recognizing when an activity is not happening despite strong contextual cues remains largely unexplored. We introduce UCF101-AD, a large-scale benchmark consisting of paired Action-Presence and Action-Denial clips, designed to evaluate this capacity for denial. Each negative video in UCF101-AD preserves the same contextual and motion cues, including persons, objects, and locations, as its positive counterpart, but the defining action itself is explicitly absent. Evaluating 20 state-of-the-art MLLMs reveals a consistent failure: models that exceed 85% accuracy on the positive action classes collapse below 50% on their action-denial counterparts, indicating a strong inclination to affirm plausible actions rather than verify that they truly occur. This exposes a critical blind spot in modern video understanding: the inability to reason causally about whether a motion actually happens. To probe this issue, we explore a causal graph formulation, CausalAct, which expresses scene structure through natural-language prompts linking context, interaction, and motion. Incorporating such causal cues substantially reduces false positives, demonstrating that denial is a learnable reasoning skill. UCF101-AD provides a new lens for diagnosing and improving causal reasoning in multimodal models. Dataset and relevant code: https://github.com/raiyaan-abdullah/Learn-to-Deny.

Physical events are not understood by their names alone, but by the causal state changes that compose them. A clip-level label such as "bounce" can be correct while hiding the process that makes the event physically valid, from support loss and contact onset to rebound and settling. To make this hidden process explicit, we introduce Atomic Physical Transitions (APTs): minimal, temporally localized state changes that bind a visible cue to an active physical mechanism and before/after dynamical regimes. An APT chain represents a video as an ordered causal transition sequence rather than a single aggregate event label: event labels tell what happened; APT chains explain why it happened. To make APTs learnable by VLMs, we construct mixed-source APT data from human annotations and simulator ground truth, covering 14 transition types across contact, gravity, friction, and rotation/stability, with 27,303 timed instances over 1,246 trials. Using this data, we find that current VLMs miss transition-level physics, with zero-shot recall at most 14% and errors dominated by missed transitions. Direct fine-tuning on APT chains improves transition detection but causes event-level forgetting, indicating that the model learns a specialized answer format rather than a reusable physical representation. We therefore propose APT-Tune, a parameter-efficient recipe that teaches VLMs to use causal transitions without forgetting how to answer video questions. It combines image-pad-aware supervision, format-conditional co-training, and mechanism-conditioned domain-to-type decoding to make APT learning format-robust and physically grounded. With only 11 M LoRA parameters on Qwen3-VL-2B, APT-Tune substantially improves APT recall while also improving event-level video transfer. These results show that APTs are not a new answer format, but a human-aligned causal supervision signal for physical video understanding.

Recent advances in diffusion-based video generation have significantly improved visual quality and short-term temporal coherence. However, existing methods still struggle to produce videos with physically consistent and causally plausible dynamics, especially in scenarios involving long-horizon interactions. This limitation arises from the fact that video diffusion models primarily learn physical consistency implicitly, while vision-language models can directly model physical laws. Based on this idea, in this work, we propose \textbf{CausalMotion}, a training-free framework that injects explicit physical reasoning into video generation through structured intermediate representations. Our key idea is to decouple reasoning from generation by leveraging a vision-language model to decompose a text prompt into a sequence of causally consistent keyframes and object-centric motion trajectories. These representations are then aligned and integrated as soft constraints to guide a pretrained video diffusion model during inference. This design enables explicit modeling of object dynamics and causal transitions without requiring additional training or supervision. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently improves physical plausibility and temporal coherence, particularly in dynamics-intensive scenarios, while maintaining high perceptual video quality.

Recent advances in video multimodal models have significantly improved VideoQA performance. However, these systems often rely on spurious statistical correlations rather than answer-relevant causal evidence, resulting in unfaithful and brittle reasoning, especially in complex real-world scenarios. Existing methods either rely on cross-modality correlations, costly curated training resources, or insufficient causal assumptions and constraints, and typically operate at the time-interval level. As a result, they fail to explicitly disentangle causal visual cues from confounders and provide limited fine-grained evidence localization. To address this issue, we propose a Counterfactual Reasoning framework for fine-grained Evidence Disentanglement (CREDiT). CREDiT formulates the VideoQA process using a structural causal model and learns cross-modality representations that are explicitly decomposed into causal and non-causal components under independence and minimality constraints. To facilitate faithful disentanglement, we introduce feature-level causal interventions and construct counterfactual inputs that approximate causal effects while suppressing non-causal correlations. Extensive experiments on NExT-GQA, SportsQA, and SPORTU-video demonstrate that CREDiT consistently improves answer accuracy and reasoning reliability across both generic and complex sports scenarios, leading to more trustworthy VideoQA systems.

The task of temporal answer grounding in instructional video (TAGV), which aims to locate precise video segments that respond to natural language queries, is increasingly important for direct video answer retrieval. This task remains challenging due to the need to comprehend semantically complex questions and to address the significant length mismatch between untrimmed videos and short target moments. Existing methods often suffer from sensitivity to irrelevant content or insufficient visual reasoning capabilities. To tackle these limitations, we propose a Candidate-Aware Causal Reasoning (CACR) framework. Our approach first employs a Visual-Language Pre-training based Candidate Selection (VBCS) algorithm to efficiently generate K candidate segments, then applies a temporal logic reasoning module enhanced by a rejection reward mechanism and optimized via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for robust inference. Extensive experiments on six benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of mean Intersection-over-Union (mIoU), providing a new perspective for reasoning-based retrieval in long videos.

True video intelligence demands more than recognizing what is visible: it requires reasoning about why events unfold, predicting what would change under different conditions, and deciding what to do next. We refer to this progression, from perception through causal reasoning and simulation to strategic planning, as Strategic Video Intelligence (SVI). No existing benchmark evaluates this capability stack: in-the-wild videos lack verifiable ground truth for causal and strategic questions, while synthetic environments sacrifice the complexity of real multi-agent systems. To bridge this gap, we introduce SVI-Bench, a large-scale benchmark that leverages team sports as a dynamic microworld, combining the complexity of real-world multi-agent interaction (10-22 agents making coordinated decisions under adversarial pressure) with the verifiability of explicit rules and definitive outcomes. SVI-Bench comprises approximately 35K hours of broadcast video, 15M annotated actions, 15K hours of expert commentary, 23K game reports, and 103K structured statistical records across basketball, soccer, and hockey, all constructed via a data engine that transforms raw game data into a dense, cross-referenced corpus. We organize evaluation into 9 tasks spanning a progressive four-pillar hierarchy: Dynamic Scene Understanding, Causal Reasoning, Strategic Simulation, and Agentic Synthesis. Evaluating strong multimodal and agentic baselines, we find a capability cliff: models perform competently on perceptual tasks, achieving approximately 74% on fine-grained action QA, but degrade sharply at each successive cognitive level. Agentic tasks prove hardest: the strongest model achieves only 5% accuracy when required to autonomously gather and integrate evidence across a corpus of 1.8M clips.

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

With the rapid advancement of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), models have demonstrated increasingly powerful multimodal capabilities. However, whether MLLMs trained through statistical learning can truly understand the causal relationships underlying the real world remains a key research question. In recent years, numerous multimodal causal reasoning datasets have been proposed. Nevertheless, these datasets are either limited in scale or constructed from synthetic images and videos, cartoon-based content, or other non-realistic multimodal sources. To address these limitations, we collect real-world videos and construct DMC-CF-Static, a large-scale benchmark for multimodal causal counterfactual reasoning. Furthermore, to mitigate issues such as data contamination in traditional static evaluation, we represent causal events using causal graphs and propose the Dynamic Graph Intervention (DGI) framework to build the dynamic evaluation benchmark DMC-CF-Dynamic from DMC-CF-Static. Experimental results on the overall DMC-CF, which includes both static and dynamic evaluation benchmarks, demonstrate that the multimodal causal reasoning capabilities of current multimodal large language models in real-world scenarios still require substantial improvement.

Video generation models are increasingly used as world simulators for tasks like driving and robotic manipulation. What matters in these settings is not whether a single video looks right, but whether the model's output changes when its input changes. We test this by giving a model two prompts describing the same scene with one physical detail varied, and checking whether the two videos diverge the way physics predicts. The wording difference between the prompts is small by design, since only one variable is changed, but the correct physical difference is not. A model that misses this can still produce two videos that each look plausible individually, and existing benchmarks score videos one at a time and cannot detect this failure. We introduce What-If World, 319 such prompt pairs built on real frames from nuScenes and DROID, organized by a taxonomy of six physical variables shared across driving and manipulation. Each pair is scored with APEO, a four-part rubric checking whether each video follows its prompt (Adherence), is physically consistent (Physics), preserves the shared scene (Environment), and ends in the correct difference (Outcome). Across nine state-of-the-art models, no system exceeds 52% on the paired score, and open-source models cluster near 28%. Every model tested fails on a large fraction of causal interventions, indicating substantial room before these models can reliably support action-conditioned simulation or model-based planning. Where models do score well, performance appears to track the visual prominence of the intervention rather than the tractability of its underlying physics. Some visually subtle interventions score as low as 14.2%, while visually pronounced ones reach 40.4%.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Cause-and-effect reasoning in video is a significant challenge for Vision-Language Models (VLMs), as it requires going beyond surface-level perception to a deeper understanding of causal mechanisms. However, existing benchmarks rarely provide the fine-grained, grounded evidence needed to rigorously evaluate this capability. To address this gap, we introduce CaST-Bench, a benchmark for Causal Chain-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Video Reasoning. CaST-Bench presents complex causal questions that require models to identify and localize a chain of multiple spatio-temporal evidences. Through a human-AI collaborative pipeline, we construct a high-quality dataset of 2,066 questions over 1,015 videos, with causal chains annotated by temporal segments and bounding-box tracks. Furthermore, we design a comprehensive evaluation suite with novel metrics that assess not only answer correctness but also the capability for visual evidence grounded reasoning. This grounding is crucial for improving accuracy by mitigating spurious correlations and for enhancing user trust by making models more transparent. Our experiments show that current VLMs struggle with causal questions, largely due to their limited ability to construct precise and grounded causal chains. This highlights an important direction for improving future VLMs. Homepage: https://woven-by-toyota.github.io/CaST-Bench.

Current motion-controlled image-to-video generation models rigidly follow user-provided trajectories that are often sparse, imprecise, and causally incomplete. Such reliance often yields unnatural or implausible outcomes, especially by missing secondary causal consequences. To address this, we introduce MotiMotion, a novel framework that reformulates motion control as a reasoning-then-generation problem. To encourage causally grounded and commonsense-consistent interactions, we leverage a training-free vision-language reasoner to refine image-space coordinates of primary trajectories and to hallucinate plausible secondary motions. To further improve motion naturalness, we propose a confidence-aware control scheme that modulates guidance strength, enabling the model to closely follow high-confidence plans while correcting artifacts under low-confidence inputs with its internal generative priors. To support systematic evaluation, we curate a new image-to-video benchmark, MotiBench, consisting of interaction-centric scenes where new events are triggered by motion. Both VLM-based evaluation and a human study on MotiBench demonstrate that MotiMotion produces videos with more plausible object behaviors and interaction, and is preferred over existing approaches.

Learning predictive world models from unlabelled video is a foundational challenge in artificial intelligence. While Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have set new benchmarks in semantic classification, they often remain physics-blind, failing to capture the causal dynamics necessary for downstream reasoning. We hypothesize that this stems from standard patch-based masking strategies, which prioritize visual texture over rare but informative kinematic events. We propose Interaction-Aware JEPA (IA-JEPA), which utilizes a self-supervised motion-centric masking strategy to prioritize physical interactions. By specifically targeting entities engaged in collisions or momentum transfers, we force the architecture to reconstruct latent trajectories rather than static background features. Evaluated on the CLEVRER benchmark, IA-JEPA achieves 14.26% accuracy on causal reasoning tasks, a significant lead over the 3.22% achieved by standard patch-masked baselines. Crucially, we demonstrate that IA-JEPA breaks the "static bias" of standard self-supervision by inducing a higher-entropy, more discriminative latent space (+10% entropy gain) that linearizes physical energy ($R^2=0.43$). We show that this interaction bias generalizes to real-world human actions (Something-Something V2) and zero-shot physical puzzles (PHYRE-Lite). Our results provide a scalable, fully self-supervised path toward building foundational world models that begin to internalize the causal structure of the physical world.

Commercial video generation systems such as Seedance2.0 and Veo3.1 have rapidly improved, strengthening the view that video generators may be evolving into "world simulators." Yet the community still lacks a benchmark that directly tests whether a model can reason about how an observed world should evolve over time. We introduce WorldReasonBench, which reframes video generation evaluation as world-state prediction: given an initial state and an action, can a model generate a future video whose state evolution remains physically, socially, logically, and informationally consistent? WorldReasonBench contains 436 curated test cases with structured ground-truth QA annotations spanning four reasoning dimensions and 22 subcategories. We evaluate generated videos with a human-aligned two-part methodology: Process-aware Reasoning Verification uses structured QA and reasoning-phase diagnostics to detect temporal and causal failures, while Multi-dimensional Quality Assessment scores reasoning quality, temporal consistency, and visual aesthetics for ranking and reward modeling. We further introduce WorldRewardBench, a preference benchmark with approximately 6K expert-annotated pairs over 1.4K videos, supporting pair-wise and point-wise reward-model evaluation. Across modern video generators, our results expose a persistent gap between visual plausibility and world reasoning: videos can look convincing while failing dynamics, causality, or information preservation. We will release our benchmarks and evaluation toolkit to support community research on genuinely world-aware video generation at https://github.com/UniX-AI-Lab/WorldReasonBench/.

Although Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have achieved strong performance on general video understanding, their susceptibility to textual prior shortcuts during causal discovery has been recognized as a critical deficit. The underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon remain incompletely understood, as existing benchmarks only measure response accuracy without revealing the sources and extent of the deficit. We introduce ProCauEval, a perturbation-based evaluation protocol that shifts from outcome assessment to mechanism diagnosis, probing causal discovery through five controlled configurations that systematically manipulate visual and textual modalities to decompose their respective contributions to model behavior and dissect the failure modes. Evaluating 17 mainstream LMMs, we find that models faithfully perceive video content yet systematically underexploit it during causal reasoning. We further observe that stronger post-training amplifies rather than mitigates textual prior reliance, and that higher baseline performance correlates with greater fragility under perturbation. To address these, we propose Anti-Distillation Policy Optimization (ADPO), a reinforcement learning framework built on negative teacher alignment, which augments GRPO by explicitly pushing the policy away from a prior-only counterfactual teacher induced by visual corruption. Specifically, ADPO maximizes the divergence between the policy distributions conditioned on the original and visually corrupted inputs, thereby forcing the model to ground its reasoning in visual evidence rather than textual shortcuts. Extensive experiments show that ADPO improves visual engagement without sacrificing fundamental comprehension, thus offering a preliminary step toward reliable causal discovery.

Recent large vision-language models have achieved strong performance on short- and medium-length video understanding, yet they remain inadequate for ultra-long or even infinite video reasoning, where models must preserve coherent memory over extended durations and infer causal dependencies across temporally distant events. Existing end-to-end video understanding methods are fundamentally limited by the $O(n^2)$ complexity of self-attention, while recent retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approaches still suffer from fragmented clip-level memory, weak modeling of temporal and causal structure, and high storage and online inference costs. We present Event-Causal RAG, a lightweight retrieval-augmented framework for infinite long-video reasoning. Instead of indexing fixed-length clips, our method segments streaming videos into semantically coherent events and represents each event as a structured State-Event-State (SES) graph, capturing the event together with its surrounding state transitions. These graphs are merged into a global Event Knowledge Graph and stored in a dual-store memory that supports both semantic matching and causal-topological retrieval. On top of this memory, we design a bidirectional retrieval strategy to efficiently identify the most relevant event causal chains and provide them, together with the associated video evidence, to a backbone video foundation model for answer generation. Experiments on long-video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that Event-Causal RAG consistently outperforms strong clip-based retrieval baselines and long-context video models, particularly on questions requiring multi-event integration and causal inference across long temporal gaps, while also achieving improved memory efficiency and robust streaming performance.