Causal Reasoning

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Overview

Causal reasoning asks what produces an outcome, what would change under an intervention, and why an event occurred. Researchers use structural causal models and graphs, discovery and effect-estimation methods, do-calculus, and counterfactual approaches to explanation and responsibility. Recent work also tests and builds language, vision, and agent systems using explicit causal graphs, reasoning traces, simulators, and interactive tasks. A central challenge is distinguishing genuine use of causal structure from reliance on familiar wording or correlations, while making assumptions and uncertainty explicit.

Latest papers

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79 papers6 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Apr 23, 2026

Ideological Bias in LLMs' Economic Causal Reasoning

Do large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic ideological bias when reasoning about economic causal effects? As LLMs are increasingly used in policy analysis and economic reporting, where directionally correct causal judgments are essential, this question has direct practical stakes. We present a systematic evaluation by extending the EconCausal benchmark with ideology-contested cases - instances where intervention-oriented (pro-government) and market-oriented (pro-market) perspectives predict divergent causal signs. From 10,490 causal triplets (treatment-outcome pairs with empirically verified effect directions) derived from top-tier economics and finance journals, we identify 1,056 ideology-contested instances and evaluate 20 state-of-the-art LLMs on their ability to predict empirically supported causal directions. We find that ideology-contested items are consistently harder than non-contested ones, and that across 17 of 20 models, accuracy is systematically higher when the empirically verified causal sign aligns with intervention-oriented expectations than with market-oriented ones. Moreover, when models err, their incorrect predictions disproportionately lean intervention-oriented, and this directional skew is not eliminated by one-shot in-context prompting. These results highlight that LLMs are not only less accurate on ideologically contested economic questions, but systematically less reliable in one ideological direction than the other, underscoring the need for direction-aware evaluation in high-stakes economic and policy settings.

Donggyu Lee, Hyeok Yun, Jungwon Kim +4

Graduate School of Data Science, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea · College of Business, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea · School of Computing, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea +1

Political Bias in Language ModelsLanguage Model Bias EvaluationCausal ReasoningCausal Inference
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Apr 16, 2026

ClimateCause: Complex and Implicit Causal Structures in Climate Reports

Understanding climate change requires reasoning over complex causal networks. Yet, existing causal discovery datasets predominantly capture explicit, direct causal relations. We introduce ClimateCause, a manually expert-annotated dataset of higher-order causal structures from science-for-policy climate reports, including implicit and nested causality. Cause-effect expressions are normalized and disentangled into individual causal relations to facilitate graph construction, with unique annotations for cause-effect correlation, relation type, and spatiotemporal context. We further demonstrate ClimateCause's value for quantifying readability based on the semantic complexity of causal graphs underlying a statement. Finally, large language model benchmarking on correlation inference and causal chain reasoning highlights the latter as a key challenge.

Liesbeth Allein, Nataly Pineda-Castañeda, Andrea Rocci +1

Department of Computer Science, KU Leuven, Belgium · Institute of Argumentation, Linguistics, and Semiotics (IALS), Universit`a della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland

Relation ExtractionClimate ScienceCausal DiscoveryCausal Reasoning
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Apr 14, 2026

Generating Effective CoT Traces for Mitigating Causal Hallucination

Although large language models (LLMs) excel in complex reasoning tasks, they suffer from severe causal hallucination in event causality identification (ECI), particularly in smaller models (≤\leq1.5B parameters). A promising approach to address this issue is to fine-tune them with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces. However, there is currently a lack of CoT trace dataset available for ECI. In this paper, we first investigate the essential criteria that effective CoT traces should possess to mitigate causal hallucination in smaller models. We then design a pipeline to generate CoT traces that meet these criteria. Moreover, since there is currently no metric for quantifying causal hallucination, we also introduce a new metric, the Causal Hallucination Rate (CHR), to quantify causal hallucination, guide the formulation of effective CoT trace criteria, and validate the effectiveness of our pipeline. Our experiments show that fine-tuning with the CoT traces generated by our pipeline not only substantially reduces causal hallucination in smaller LLMs but also improves mean accuracy. Moreover, the fine-tuned models exhibit strong cross-dataset and cross-difficulty generalization, as well as robustness under misleading intervention prompts.

Yiheng Zhao, Jun Yan

Concordia University, Montreal, Canada

LLM Hallucination MitigationHallucination in Language ModelsCausal Reasoning in Language ModelsCausal ReasoningCoT Reasoning
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Apr 3, 2026

Hume's Representational Conditions for Causal Judgment: What Bayesian Formalization Abstracted Away

Hume's account of causal judgment presupposes three representational conditions: experiential grounding (ideas must trace to impressions), structured retrieval (association must operate through organized networks exceeding pairwise connection), and vivacity transfer (inference must produce felt conviction, not merely updated probability). This paper extracts these conditions from Hume's texts and argues that they are integral to his causal psychology. It then traces their fate through the formalization trajectory from Hume to Bayesian epistemology and predictive processing, showing that later frameworks preserve the updating structure of Hume's insight while abstracting away these further representational conditions. Large language models serve as an illustrative contemporary case: they exhibit a form of statistical updating without satisfying the three conditions, thereby making visible requirements that were previously background assumptions in Hume's framework.

Yiling Wu

BridgeM, Inc. · Department of Philosophy, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Causal Reasoning
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Apr 1, 2026

The Digital Twin Counterfactual Framework: A Validation Architecture for Simulated Potential Outcomes

The fundamental problem of causal inference - that the counterfactual outcome for any individual is never observed - has shaped the entire methodology of the field. Every existing approach substitutes assumptions for missing data: ignorability, parallel trends, exclusion restrictions. None produces the counterfactual itself. This paper proposes the Digital Twin Counterfactual Framework (DTCF): rather than estimating the counterfactual statistically, we simulate it using a digital twin and subject the simulation to a hierarchical validation regime. We formalize the digital twin simulator as a stochastic mapping within the potential outcomes framework and introduce a hierarchy of twin fidelity assumptions - from marginal fidelity through joint fidelity to structural fidelity - each unlocking a progressively richer class of estimands. The central contribution is threefold. First, a five-level validation architecture converts the unfalsifiable claim that the simulator produces correct counterfactuals into falsifiable tests against observable data. Second, a formal decomposition separates causal quantities into those that are marginally validated (ATE, CATE, QTE - testable through observable-arm comparison) and those that are copula-dependent (the ITE distribution, probability of benefit/harm, variance of treatment effects - permanently reliant on the unobservable within-individual dependence structure). Third, bounding, sensitivity, and uncertainty quantification tools make the copula dependence explicit. The DTCF does not resolve the fundamental problem of causal inference. What it provides is a framework in which marginal causal claims become increasingly testable, joint causal claims become explicitly assumption-indexed, and the gap between the two is formally characterized.

Olav Laudy

Counterfactual EvaluationCausal Effect EstimationCausal ReasoningCausal IdentifiabilityDigital Twins
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Mar 30, 2026

LogiStory: A Logic-Aware Framework for Multi-Image Story Visualization

Generating coherent and communicative visual sequences, such as image sequences and videos, remains a significant challenge for current multimodal systems. Despite advances in visual quality and the integration of world knowledge, existing models still struggle to maintain logical flow, often resulting in disjointed actions, fragmented narratives, and unclear storylines. We attribute these issues to the lack of attention to visual logic, a critical yet underexplored dimension of visual sequence generation that we define as the perceptual and causal coherence among characters, actions, and scenes over time. To bridge this gap, we propose a logic-aware multi-image story visualization framework, LogiStory. The framework is built around the central innovation of explicitly modeling visual logic in story visualization. To realize this idea, we design a multi-agent system that grounds roles, extracts causal chains, and verifies story-level consistency, transforming narrative coherence from an implicit byproduct of image generation into an explicit modeling objective. This design effectively bridges structured story planning with visual generation, enhancing both narrative clarity and visual quality in story visualization. Furthermore, to evaluate the generation capacity, we construct LogicTale, a benchmark comprising richly annotated stories, emphasizing causal reasoning, and visual logic interpretability. We establish comprehensive automatic and human evaluation protocols designed to measure both visual logic and perceptual quality. Experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the narrative logic of generated visual stories. This work provides a foundational step towards modeling and enforcing visual logic in general image sequence and video generation tasks.

Chutian Meng, Fan Ma, Chi Zhang +3

College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China

Visual StorytellingCausal Reasoning
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Mar 26, 2026

ViGoR-Bench: How Far Are Visual Generative Models From Zero-Shot Visual Reasoners?

Beneath the stunning visual fidelity of modern AIGC models lies a "logical desert", where systems fail tasks that require physical, causal, or complex spatial reasoning. Current evaluations largely rely on superficial metrics or fragmented benchmarks, creating a performance mirage'' that overlooks the generative process. To address this, we introduce ViGoR Vision-G}nerative Reasoning-centric Benchmark), a unified framework designed to dismantle this mirage. ViGoR distinguishes itself through four key innovations: 1) holistic cross-modal coverage bridging Image-to-Image and Video tasks; 2) a dual-track mechanism evaluating both intermediate processes and final results; 3) an evidence-grounded automated judge ensuring high human alignment; and 4) granular diagnostic analysis that decomposes performance into fine-grained cognitive dimensions. Experiments on over 20 leading models reveal that even state-of-the-art systems harbor significant reasoning deficits, establishing ViGoR as a critical stress test'' for the next generation of intelligent vision models. The demo have been available at https://vincenthancoder.github.io/ViGoR-Bench/

Haonan Han, Jiancheng Huang, Xiaopeng Sun +7

Tsinghua University · Meituan M17 · The University of Hong Kong +1

Generative AI EvaluationPhysical ReasoningVideo Generation EvaluationCausal Reasoning
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Mar 12, 2026

HCP-DCNet: A Hierarchical Causal Primitive Dynamic Composition Network for Self-Improving Causal Understanding

The ability to understand and reason about cause and effect -- encompassing interventions, counterfactuals, and underlying mechanisms -- is a cornerstone of robust artificial intelligence. While deep learning excels at pattern recognition, it fundamentally lacks a model of causality, making systems brittle under distribution shifts and unable to answer ``what-if'' questions. This paper introduces the Hierarchical Causal Primitive Dynamic Composition Network (HCP-DCNet), a unified framework that bridges continuous physical dynamics with discrete symbolic causal inference. Departing from monolithic representations, HCP-DCNet decomposes causal scenes into reusable, typed causal primitives organized into four abstraction layers: physical, functional, event, and rule. A dual-channel routing network dynamically composes these primitives into task-specific, fully differentiable Causal Execution Graphs (CEGs). Crucially, the system employs a causal-intervention-driven meta-evolution strategy, enabling autonomous self-improvement through a constrained Markov decision process. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees, including type-safe composition, routing convergence, and universal approximation of causal dynamics. Extensive experiments across simulated physical and social environments demonstrate that HCP-DCNet significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in causal discovery, counterfactual reasoning, and compositional generalization. This work provides a principled, scalable, and interpretable architecture for building AI systems with human-like causal abstraction and continual self-refinement capabilities.

Ming Lei, Shufan Wu, Christophe Baehr

Shanghai JiaoTong University, Shanghai · M´et´eo France/CNRS, Universit´e de Toulouse, CNRM UMR 3589, Toulouse, France

Causal ReasoningCausal AbstractionCausal Representation LearningCausal DiscoveryCounterfactual ReasoningSelf-Improving Agents
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Mar 2, 2026

De-paradox Tree: Breaking Down Simpson's Paradox via A Kernel-Based Partition Algorithm

Real-world observational datasets and machine learning have revolutionized data-driven decision-making, yet many models rely on empirical associations that may be misleading due to confounding and subgroup heterogeneity. Simpson's paradox exemplifies this challenge, where aggregated and subgroup-level associations contradict each other, leading to misleading conclusions. Existing methods provide limited support for detecting and interpreting such paradoxical associations, especially for practitioners without deep causal expertise. We introduce De-paradox Tree, an interpretable algorithm designed to uncover hidden subgroup patterns behind paradoxical associations under assumed causal structures involving confounders and effect heterogeneity. It employs novel split criteria and balancing-based procedures to adjust for confounders and homogenize heterogeneous effects through recursive partitioning. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, De-paradox Tree builds simpler, more interpretable trees, selects relevant covariates, and identifies nested opposite effects while ensuring robust estimation of causal effects when causally admissible variables are provided. Our approach addresses the limitations of traditional causal inference and machine learning methods by introducing an interpretable framework that supports non-expert practitioners while explicitly acknowledging causal assumptions and scope limitations, enabling more reliable and informed decision-making in complex observational data environments.

Xian Teng, Yu-Ru Lin

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Causal InferenceCausal ReasoningCausal Effect EstimationDecision Tree LearningConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
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Feb 27, 2026

Seeking Necessary and Sufficient Information from Multimodal Medical Data

Learning multimodal representations from medical images and other data sources can provide richer information for decision-making. While various multimodal models have been developed for this, they overlook learning features that are both necessary (must be present for the outcome to occur) and sufficient (enough to determine the outcome). We argue learning such features is crucial as they can improve model performance by capturing essential predictive information, and enhance model robustness to missing modalities as each modality can provide adequate predictive signals. Such features can be learned by leveraging the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) as a learning objective, an approach that has proven effective in unimodal settings. However, extending PNS to multimodal scenarios remains underexplored and is non-trivial as key conditions of PNS estimation are violated. We address this by decomposing multimodal representations into modality-invariant and modality-specific components, then deriving tractable PNS objectives for each. Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate our method's effectiveness. Code will be available on GitHub.

Boyu Chen, Weiye Bao, Junjie Liu +5

University College London, London, UK · Imperial College London, London, UK · Mingdu Tech, China +1

Medical Image Representation LearningCausal Reasoning
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Feb 24, 2026

CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification, formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions, and estimation, implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 174 queries across 139 real-world datasets, curated from 73 peer-reviewed research papers and three widely used causal-inference textbooks. For each query, a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 81% of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 38%, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis Syrgkanis

Stanford University

Causal Effect EstimationBenchmark DesignCausal IdentifiabilityCausal ReasoningCausal Inference
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Feb 23, 2026

CausalFlip: A Benchmark for LLM Causal Judgment Beyond Semantic Matching

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on traditional reasoning benchmarks does not guarantee true causal reasoning ability of LLMs, as high accuracy may still arise from memorizing semantic patterns instead of analyzing the underlying true causal structures. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a new causal reasoning benchmark, CausalFlip, designed to encourage the development of new LLM paradigm or training algorithms that ground LLM reasoning in causality rather than semantic correlation. CausalFlip consists of causal judgment questions built over event triples that could form different confounder, chain, and collider relations. Based on this, for each event triple, we construct pairs of semantically similar questions that reuse the same events but yield opposite causal answers, where models that rely heavily on semantic matching are systematically driven toward incorrect predictions. To further probe models' reliance on semantic patterns, we introduce a noisy-prefix evaluation that prepends causally irrelevant text before intermediate causal reasoning steps without altering the underlying causal relations or the logic of the reasoning process. We evaluate LLMs under multiple training paradigms, including answer-only training, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) supervision, and a proposed internalized causal reasoning approach that aims to mitigate explicit reliance on correlation in the reasoning process. Our results show that explicit CoT can still be misled by spurious semantic correlations, where internalizing reasoning steps yields substantially improved causal grounding, suggesting that it is promising to better elicit the latent causal reasoning capabilities of base LLMs.

Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li

University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

LLM EvaluationCausal Reasoning in Language ModelsCausal ReasoningCausal Inference
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Feb 22, 2026

DoAtlas-1: A Causal Compilation Paradigm for Clinical AI

Medical foundation models generate narrative explanations but cannot quantify intervention effects, detect evidence conflicts, or validate literature claims, limiting clinical auditability. We propose causal compilation, a paradigm that transforms medical evidence from narrative text into executable code. The paradigm standardizes heterogeneous research evidence into structured estimand objects, each explicitly specifying intervention contrast, effect scale, time horizon, and target population, supporting six executable causal queries: do-calculus, counterfactual reasoning, temporal trajectories, heterogeneous effects, mechanistic decomposition, and joint interventions. We instantiate this paradigm in DoAtlas-1, compiling 1,445 effect kernels from 754 studies through effect standardization, conflict-aware graph construction, and real-world validation (Human Phenotype Project, 10,000 participants). The system achieves 98.5% canonicalization accuracy and 80.5% query executability. This paradigm shifts medical AI from text generation to executable, auditable, and verifiable causal reasoning.

Yulong Li, Jianxu Chen, Xiwei Liu +9

Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

Causal ReasoningCausal InferenceClinical Decision Support
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Aug 28, 2025

ChainReaction: Causal Chain-Guided Reasoning for Modular and Explainable Causal-Why Video Question Answering

Existing Causal-Why Video Question Answering (VideoQA) models often struggle with higher-order reasoning, relying on opaque, monolithic pipelines that entangle video understanding, causal inference, and answer generation. These black-box approaches offer limited interpretability and tend to depend on shallow heuristics. We propose a novel, modular paradigm that explicitly decouples causal reasoning from answer generation, introducing natural language causal chains as interpretable intermediate representations. Inspired by human cognitive models, these structured cause-effect sequences bridge low-level video content with high-level causal reasoning, enabling transparent and logically coherent inference. Our two-stage architecture comprises a Causal Chain Extractor (CCE) that generates causal chains from video-question pairs, and a Causal Chain-Driven Answerer (CCDA) that derives answers grounded in these chains. To address the lack of annotated reasoning traces, we introduce a scalable method for generating accurate causal chains from existing datasets. We construct human verified causal chains for 46K samples. We also propose CauCo, a new evaluation metric for causality-oriented captioning. Experiments on three large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only outperforms state-of-the-art models, but also yields substantial gains in explainability, user trust, and generalization -- positioning the CCE as a reusable causal reasoning engine across diverse domains. Project page: https://paritoshparmar.github.io/chainreaction/

Paritosh Parmar, Eric Peh, Basura Fernando

Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore · Centre for Frontier AI Research, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

Video QAMultimodal CoT ReasoningCausal ReasoningCausal ExplanationCausal Reasoning in Videos
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May 13, 2025

Synergizing Large Language Models and Theory for Human-like Causal Reasoning

Performing causal reasoning akin to humans is fundamental to achieving strong artificial intelligence. However, existing studies on causal reasoning and large language models (LLMs) often underestimate the role of human causal cognition. Human causal reasoning is far more than recognizing causes and effects. Humans often factor in many other considerations when establishing a causal link between two events, such as norm violations, intentionality, morality, counterfactual scenarios, etc. To simulate such reasoning, it is intuitive to identify cause-effect pairs using token causality formalisms while modeling the factors that influence human causal judgment using findings from cognitive science experiments. To support the evaluation and modeling of human-like causal reasoning in LLMs, we introduce HCR-Bench, a challenging benchmark with 1,093 instances and detailed human causal reasoning step annotations, and HCR-Reasoner, an approach that systematically integrates theories of token causality and cognitive science into LLMs for human-like causal reasoning. Results suggest that HCR-Reasoner consistently improves LLMs' causal alignment with humans, and that theory-guided reasoning is highly effective.

Yanxi Zhang, Xin Cong, Zhong Zhang +3

Center for Data Science, AAIS, Peking University · Wangxuan Institute of Computer Technology, Peking University · Tsinghua University +1

Causal Reasoning in Language ModelsCausal ReasoningLLM Reasoning
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May 6, 2025

A Communication-First Account of Explanation

This paper develops a formal account of causal explanation, grounded in a theory of conversational pragmatics, and inspired by the interventionist idea that explanation is about asking and answering what-if-things-had-been-different questions. We illustrate the fruitfulness of the account, relative to previous accounts, by showing that widely recognised explanatory virtues emerge naturally, as do subtle empirical patterns concerning the impact of norms on causal judgments. This shows the value of a communication-first approach to explanation: getting clear on explanation's communicative dimension is an important prerequisite for philosophical work on explanation. The result is a simple but powerful framework for incorporating insights from the cognitive sciences into philosophical work on explanation, which will be useful for philosophers or cognitive scientists interested in explanation.

Jacqueline Harding, Tobias Gerstenberg, Thomas Icard

Stanford University

Causal ReasoningCausal Explanation
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Nov 13, 2024

Causal Explanations for Image Classifiers

Existing algorithms for explaining the output of image classifiers use different definitions of explanations and a variety of techniques to find them. However, none of the existing tools use a principled approach based on formal definitions of cause and explanation. In this paper we present a novel black-box approach to computing explanations grounded in the theory of actual causality. We prove relevant theoretical results and present an algorithm for computing approximate explanations based on these definitions. We prove termination of our algorithm and discuss its complexity and the amount of approximation compared to the precise definition. We implemented the framework in a tool ReX and we present experimental results and a comparison with state-of-the-art tools. We demonstrate that ReX is the most efficient black-box tool and produces the smallest explanations, in addition to outperforming other black-box tools on standard quality measures.

Hana Chockler, David A. Kelly, Daniel Kroening +1

King’s College London, London, UK · Amazon.com, Inc.,, USA · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, Abu Dhabi, UAE +1

Actual CausalityExplainable Image ClassificationCausal ReasoningCausal ExplanationCausal InterpretabilityExplainability Evaluation
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Apr 9, 2024

CausalBN-Bench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Causal Learning Capability of LLMs

The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual reasoning, as causality reveals the underlying data distribution. However, the lack of a comprehensive benchmark currently limits the evaluation of LLMs' causal learning capabilities. To fill this gap, this paper develops CausalBN-Bench based on data from the causal research community, enabling comparative evaluations of LLMs against traditional causal learning algorithms. To provide a comprehensive investigation, we offer three tasks of varying difficulties, including correlation, causal skeleton, and causality identification. Evaluations of 19 leading LLMs reveal that, while closed-source LLMs show potential for simple causal relationships, they significantly lag behind traditional algorithms on larger-scale networks (>50>50 nodes). Specifically, LLMs struggle with collider structures but excel at chain structures, especially at long-chain causality analogous to Chain-of-Thought techniques. This supports the current prompt approaches while suggesting directions to enhance LLMs' causal reasoning capability. Furthermore, CausalBN-Bench incorporates background knowledge and training data into prompts to thoroughly unlock LLMs' text-comprehension ability during evaluation, whose findings indicate that, LLM understand causality through semantic associations with distinct entities, rather than directly from contextual information or numerical distributions.

Yu Zhou, Xingyu Wu, Jibin Wu +2

Department of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China · College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

LLM EvaluationCausal DiscoveryCausal Structure LearningCausal Reasoning in Language ModelsCausal Reasoning
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Apr 1, 2024

CausalChaos! Dataset for Comprehensive Causal Action Question Answering Over Longer Causal Chains Grounded in Dynamic Visual Scenes

Causal video question answering (QA) has garnered increasing interest, yet existing datasets often lack depth in causal reasoning. To address this gap, we capitalize on the unique properties of cartoons and construct CausalChaos!, a novel, challenging causal Why-QA dataset built upon the iconic "Tom and Jerry" cartoon series. Cartoons use the principles of animation that allow animators to create expressive, unambiguous causal relationships between events to form a coherent storyline. Utilizing these properties, along with thought-provoking questions and multi-level answers (answer and detailed causal explanation), our questions involve causal chains that interconnect multiple dynamic interactions between characters and visual scenes. These factors demand models to solve more challenging, yet well-defined causal relationships. We also introduce hard incorrect answer mining, including a causally confusing version that is even more challenging. While models perform well, there is much room for improvement, especially, on open-ended answers. We identify more advanced/explicit causal relationship modeling & joint modeling of vision and language as the immediate areas for future efforts to focus upon. Along with the other complementary datasets, our new challenging dataset will pave the way for these developments in the field. Project Page: https://github.com/LUNAProject22/CausalChaos

Paritosh Parmar, Eric Peh, Ruirui Chen +4

Institute of High-Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University · National University of Singapore +1

Video QACausal ReasoningCausal ExplanationMulti-Hop ReasoningCausal Reasoning in Videos
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