Causal Reasoning

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7 papers in the last four weeks, down 12% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Sep 28, 2026cs.AI

Fuzzy Distribution Modeling for Synthetic Tabular Data Generation with Causality Preservation

Synthetic tabular data generation provides an effective alternative for the training of machine learning models when real-world data is limited or inaccessible. However, the heterogeneous, non-smooth, and incomplete nature of tabular data poses fundamental challenges to conventional probabilistic and deep generative models, where their interpretability remains limited. This paper proposes a novel fuzzy distribution modeling methodology for synthetic tabular data generation based on fuzzy sets theory. Feature distributions are represented using fuzzy sets and feature dependencies are modeled through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, resulting in a low-parameter, and an interpretable data representation. Synthetic samples are generated by sampling fuzzy concepts rather than raw values, enabling native support for mixed data types, missing values, and domain constraints. The methodology further supports linguistic queries and IF-THEN reasoning, facilitating transparent simulation of decision-making processes. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate competitive performance with respect to utility, fidelity and privacy compared to state-of-the-art methods, while offering substantially improved interpretability. These results establish fuzzy distribution modeling as a principled and effective approach for synthetic tabular data generation in fuzzy systems and decision support applications.

Michael Vasilakakis, Dimitris K. Iakovidis

Department of Computer Science and Biomedical Informatics, University of Thessaly, Lamia, Greece

Synthetic Tabular Data Fuzzy Causal Reasoning Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Sep 22, 2026cs.SE

TraceVIC: Causal Reasoning over Code Evolution for Identifying Vulnerability-Inducing Commits

Software vulnerabilities are often discovered long after they are introduced, making it difficult to identify the vulnerability-inducing commit (VIC) responsible for introducing the underlying vulnerable condition. Existing VIC identification techniques largely rely on git blame to trace vulnerable code through revision history and use positional heuristics, such as selecting its earliest or most recent modification. However, the true VIC may occur anywhere within this history, and vulnerable behavior may depend on code that evolves across multiple revisions. We therefore argue that VIC identification requires reasoning about how vulnerability-relevant code evolves, rather than simply where a candidate commit appears in the revision history. We present TraceVIC, a temporal graph-based approach for identifying and ranking VICs by reasoning over code evolution. TraceVIC first localizes likely root-cause lines and traces their histories across revisions, constructing graph representations that capture program structure within each revision and the evolution of vulnerability-relevant code across the history. It reasons over the resulting revision history, using temporal edges to preserve correspondences between program elements across consecutive revisions, and directly ranks candidate commits according to their contribution to the vulnerable condition. Ablation results show that modeling the full revision history improves F2 from 0.637 to 0.814. TraceVIC improves F2 by up to 28.7% over state-of-the-art methods and identifies a valid VIC for 78 of 79 vulnerabilities across four unseen C/C++ projects.

Fnu Tanish, Samiha Shimmi, Samikshya Chapagain +3

Northern Illinois University · MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Vulnerable Code Commits Traces Causal Reasoning

Sep 22, 2026cs.LG

xWhyL: Causal Interactive Learning

Explanations are central to causal reasoning, and cognitive science has long established that the human drive to explain is itself a mechanism for learning about causality. Despite this, learning from those abductive signals is largely ignored in artificial intelligence. While explainable AI (XAI) increasingly draws on causal models to generate explanations, the converse direction about what explanations can do for causality remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we propose xWhyL, a formal framework connecting causality and XAI by learning causal models from explanations. We develop a mathematical theory that translates explanations into a learning signal complementary to observational data, and demonstrate how it enables overcoming the limits of observational causal discovery. As explanations can be derived from incorrect beliefs and clash with data, a tension we call the Causal Tug-of-War, we prove conditions under which our framework rejects misspecified explanations rather than absorbing them. Our practical instantiation, Causal Interactive Learning (CIL), shows how expert explanations can efficiently support causal discovery and distinguish correct from incorrect explanations.

Nicholas Tagliapietra, Florian Peter Busch, Moritz Willig +4

Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence, Germany · Computer Science Department, Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany · Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI), Darmstadt, Germany

Causal Reasoning Causal Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Sep 21, 2026cs.LG

Concept Drift from a Causal Perspective

Concept drift is a common phenomenon in real-world data streams, in which changes in the data-generating distribution can degrade predictive model performance. Most existing definitions characterize drift as changes in the joint distribution

P(\mathbf{x}, y)

, without distinguishing which component of the data-generating process has changed. In this work, we introduce a causal perspective on concept drift based on Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We propose a taxonomy that categorizes drift events by their causal origin, including changes in exogenous variables, endogenous mechanisms, confounders, and target-generating processes. Building on this framework, we develop an SCM-based data stream generator that simulates controlled mechanism-level drift events. Our experiments empirically characterize the distributional effects of each drift type and show that drifts with different causal origins induce distinct patterns of distribution shift and predictive behavior. Furthermore, by integrating causal discovery methods, we use our framework to construct data streams grounded in real-world dependency structures, enabling more realistic and informative evaluation scenarios. We also demonstrate that leveraging the generated data can improve downstream performance. These results highlight the importance of accounting for causal structure when studying and evaluating adaptive learning methods, and establish a foundation for causally-aware evaluation in non-stationary environments.

Eduardo V. L. Barboza, Jean Paul Barddal, Robert Sabourin +1

LIVIA, École de Technologie Supérieure · Graduate Program in Informatics (PPGIa), Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)

Causal Discovery Methods Causal Reasoning Streaming

Sep 19, 2026cs.CL

From Concept Alignment to Causal Grounding: An Intervention Test of Chain-of-Thought Faithfulness

Chain-of-thought (CoT) can sound plausible yet be unfaithful to the model's underlying reasoning. Most prior work probes CoT faithfulness through input--output behavior or input attributions, leaving internal computation largely underexplored. We instead cast faithfulness as internal concept grounding: Does a large language model's (LLM) CoT reasoning engage the same internal concepts that support the LLM's direct prediction, and do the shared concepts causally drive its answer? Encoding a prediction pass and a CoT pass with a single shared sparse autoencoder (SAE), a reliable approximator of the latent concepts LLMs use, makes their internal concepts directly comparable. We introduce three correlational metrics of concept-level alignment and a causal metric,

Δp

, which ablates the shared concepts and measures the drop in answer probability. Across five LLMs and four datasets, concept alignment is generally high, as indicated by the correlational metrics; yet these only identify which concepts are shared, not how much they causally contribute.

Δp

fills this gap: causal faithfulness varies substantially with model depth, peaking at mid-to-late layers rather than the final ones, and model scale reshapes the layer-wise profile. Moreover, causally important shared concepts are not always verbalized in the CoT. These dissociations suggest that faithfulness cannot be reliably assessed from surface-level or representational correspondence alone; assessing it requires causal tests of whether the internal concepts underlying a CoT actually drive the model's prediction.

Qianli Wang, Yilong Wang, Dennis Wei +5

Technische Universität Berlin · German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) · IBM Research +4

Explanation Faithfulness Faithfulness Causal Reasoning Causal Representational Capacity

Sep 16, 2026cs.AI

Decodability is Not Causality: Dissociating Probe Readouts from Behavioral Drivers via SAE Decomposition

Linear probes can decode safety-relevant concepts such as truthfulness from language-model activations, but probe accuracy may show only decodability, not that the features the probe weights causally drive model behavior. We demonstrate that this gap cannot be closed from the geometry of probe weights alone: the features geometrically aligned with probe direction need not be the ones the model uses, so causal relevance requires intervention. We introduce a feature-level diagnostic that decomposes a deployed True/False probe into sparse-autoencoder (SAE) features, ranks those features by both probe alignment and by gradient sensitivity of the model's behavior, and ablates the resulting shared, probe-only, and random feature sets under a coherence gate. On the truth probe of Buerger et al. (2024) (TTPD), applied in the instructed truth/deception setting of Long et al. (2025) for Gemma2-9B-Instruct, the two rankings overlap only weakly (about 12%, Spearman rho = 0.10), and ablation dissociates them sharply: features the probe shares with the model flip the output far more (up to 27%) than equally sized probe-only (6%) or random (1%) features at full coherence, while probe-only features instead perturb the probe's own readout. The dissociation holds across five seeds and a held-out split, and an activation-aware selection of features flips behavior nearly three times as often as the probe's geometric top features (17.6% vs. 6.1%). In this setting, therefore, the geometric projection of a probe's weight vector alone does not identify the features the model causally uses; however, combining probe information with feature activation statistics recovers substantially more behaviorally causal features, and coherence-gated SAE intervention is needed to separate them from probe readouts.

Devesh Tiwari, Camille Davis, Shivank Sinha +3

WW-P High School South · Phillips Academy Andover · Dublin High School +3

Model Activations Causal Reasoning Causal Improving Sparse Autoencoders Decoding Human Driving

Sep 3, 2026cs.AI

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman +7

Basis Research Institute · Sorbus AI · Massachusetts Institute of Technology +3

Causal Reasoning Causal Modeling Shapley Additive Explanations Feasibility

Sep 3, 2026math.ST

Symmetries and Causality: Causal Effect Identification Beyond IID Data

In the natural sciences, symmetries and cause-effect relationships are ubiquitous. Yet for complex machine-learning tasks, like world-modeling in reinforcement learning, they appear difficult to harness. We propose a formal description of statistical systems based on symmetries in data leaving causal mechanisms invariant. The result is an abstract, simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. This paper provides formal descriptions of models and queries, setting up this language, and the formal infrastructure and strategies for their mathematically rigorous identification from data within this formalism. This approach reproduces and matches standard theoretical results on IID data and transport of experimental and non-experimental data. But its main purpose is to unify and substantially extend the scope of causal reasoning, in going beyond IID data and in approaching complex causal queries not captured by do- or soft-interventions. This new perspective on causally relevant aspects of data-modeling additionally sheds new light on well-known structures like c-components or hedges but also includes aspects of missing data and is inherently well-suited for the description of transfer and robustness properties.

Martin Rabel, Jakob Runge

Department of Computer Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Causal Reasoning Causal Symmetry Statistical Physics

Aug 24, 2026cs.LG

The Mask Is Not the Model: Auditing Prefix Invariance in Attention, State-Space, and Hybrid Sequence Models

Hybrid sequence models must satisfy prefix invariance: representations at position t must not depend on future inputs, yet this is rarely verified. We formalize prefix invariance and give a lightweight audit, two forward passes, no training or gradients, yielding a per-layer score localizing where causality breaks. Attention-mask inspection, the field's default check, is incomplete: causality is a graph-level property, and leaks can occur via scans, aggregations, or normalization despite correct masks. Across 192 injected-fault trials on eight checkpoints, mask inspection detected none, while our audit localized all 192/192 to the exact layer. Static/dynamic analysis of chunked-scan code in transformers found the same defect in Zamba2 and Nemotron-H, an inter-chunk axis error fixed via the reference implementation. The method fits on one page and runs in seconds.

Taebong Kim, Youngsik Hong, Minsik Kim +3

VIDRAFT AI Research · QuantumOS, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Sequence Modeling Real-World Cloud Fault Injection Dataset Model Auditing State Space Causal Reasoning

Aug 13, 2026cs.CV

Context-Matched Distillation: Teacher Causality for Autoregressive Video Distillation

Interactive autoregressive video generation demands both low-latency rollouts and precise online control. Few-step distillation accelerates generation by reducing denoising steps, while online control imposes a causal constraint: frames and blocks should depend on history and controls available during generation. Existing video distribution matching distillation (DMD) pipelines, however, often supervise causal few-step students using bidirectional teachers that score complete clips. The score for a target can therefore depend on future frames and controls that were unavailable when the student generated it, misaligning teacher supervision with the student's causal information set. We introduce Context-Matched Distillation (CMD), a causal DMD framework that aligns teacher supervision with the information available when each target is generated. CMD replaces bidirectional full-clip scoring with a causal teacher that evaluates each target without access to future frames or controls. The same causal teacher initializes the few-step student, establishing a consistent causal formulation across teacher training, student distillation, and inference. Beyond aligning the temporal information boundary, Prefix Scoring matches supervision to the student's realized rollout context by evaluating each target under the cached student-generated prefix that produced it. Prefix Corruption further stabilizes training by perturbing unreliable prefixes produced early in training while preserving this target-context alignment. With a simple causal formulation, CMD naturally extends to frame-wise and chunk-wise generation, long video distillation, and camera-conditioned distillation. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art aggregate performance among autoregressive methods on both short- and long-video benchmarks, together with substantially improved adherence to time-varying camera controls.

Hmrishav Bandyopadhyay, Xuanchi Ren, Zijian Huang +7

NVIDIA · SketchX, CVSSP, University of Surrey

Autoregressive Video Diffusion Models Autoregressive Video Generation Teacher Causal Reasoning

Aug 7, 2026cs.AI

From probability to causality in probabilistic logic programming

Probabilistic logic programming is a formalism of statistical relational artificial intelligence that supports causal queries, including interventions from outside the system. When the structure of a probabilistic logic program is learned from data, however, only probabilistic information is used, and a single probability distribution may be compatible with several causal orders. This leads to ambiguity in interventional reasoning, raising the question of when the causal order is uniquely determined by the distribution. Exploiting the relationship between acyclic probabilistic logic programs and Bayesian networks, we derive conditions under which the probabilistic information encoded in a program determines a unique causal order. We also incorporate constraints arising from relational structure by taking into account prescribed sets of causal symmetries induced by the underlying relational vocabulary. The result is a method for verifying when a learned probabilistic logic program supports well-defined intervention semantics.

Zora Wurm, Kilian Rückschloß, Felix Weitkämper

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Oettingenstraße 67, 80538 München · Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 10, 72076 Tübingen · German University of Digital Science, Marlene-Dietrich-Allee 14, 14482 Potsdam

Causal Reasoning Probabilistic Model Logic Probability Bayesian Networks Relational

Aug 7, 2026cs.DB

Toward a Causal Data Management Ecosystem for Decision Making and Agentic AI

Modern AI is no longer a single model but an ecosystem: classical ML predictors, deep and multimodal models, large language models, and agents, each trained and tuned over different data sources and each producing outputs at scale that become inputs to the others. Operating such an ecosystem is fundamentally a data integration problem - the knowledge it depends on is fragmented across dozens of heterogeneous, independently governed sources that must be reconciled and continually maintained. Yet integration alone is not enough. The predictions these systems make are shaped by many interacting factors, and the events, decisions, and variables that drive an outcome are routinely entangled with the ones that merely accompany it; treated as a basis for action, such correlational signals invite confounded decisions. This becomes acute once agents act autonomously: to be trustworthy and reliable, an agent must anticipate the consequences of its actions, not merely extrapolate from what has co-occurred before. Causal reasoning is what closes this gap, distinguishing the drivers of an outcome from its correlates, and enabling prescriptive and counterfactual analysis over the ecosystem's data. We therefore argue that the integrated ecosystem needs an explicit causal layer, and we propose to build it as a shared, persistent, queryable Causal World System (CWS).

Dazhuo Qiu, Yingli Zhou, Amedeo Pachera +2

Lyon 1 University, CNRS Liris Lyon, France

Causal Reasoning Ecosystems Decisions

Aug 5, 2026cs.MA

Responsibility in Multi-Agent Sequential Decision-Making: Comparing Human Judgments to Formal Models of Causal Attribution

With the growing adoption of artificial intelligence in high-stakes decision-making, identifying the causes of outcomes--particularly failures--and determining who is responsible has become a critical concern. In this work, we examine how well formal definitions of \textit{responsibility attribution}, grounded in the framework of \textit{actual causality}, align with human judgments of responsibility. To this end, we conduct a large-scale survey to elicit human judgments of responsibility in multi-agent sequential decision-making scenarios, using a modified version of the card game Goofspiel. We evaluate multiple responsibility attribution methods, assess their alignment with human judgments about responsibility, and identify factors that significantly shape responsibility judgments. While no single responsibility attribution method consistently aligns with human responses, our findings highlight key factors that influence human responsibility judgments, including agent-specific biases and amount of information available to agents during decision-making.

Nripsuta Ani Saxena, Stelios Triantafyllou, Goran Radanović

University of Southern California Los Angeles, California, USA · Max Planck Institute for Software Systems Saarbrücken, Germany

Human Judgment Causal Reasoning Card Formalization

Aug 4, 2026cs.CL

Sensitivity, Causality, and Repair Dissociate: A Layer-Wise Analysis of Perturbation Robustness and Its Scaling

When a language model fails on surface-perturbed input (typos, OCR noise, homophones), "which layer is responsible" has three natural operationalizations: where representations diverge most (sensitivity), where restoring clean activations recovers the prediction (causality), and where a small adapter can repair the damage (compensatory capacity) - and we show these three layer maps dissociate. Across a five-model panel we identify two propagation regimes - spike-and-suppress (Phi-3.5, Gemma-2-9B) and late-accumulation (Llama-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5-7B) - and on the two models meeting an 80% identity-patch gate, sensitivity and causality are anti-correlated (rho = -0.72 to -0.88). Within-family scaling on Qwen2.5 (1.5B to 14B) shows the late-accumulation signature strengthening monotonically with scale, corroborated on a second family. We propose cascade disruption as the mechanism behind the dissociation: adapters placed at causally implicated early layers break intact downstream computation, making diagnostic-flagged sites the worst adapter placements. A fixed-harness layer sweep across four models (3.8-8B) confirms the core prediction on chain-of-thought GSM8K - the flagged sites are the most damaging adapter windows on every adjudicable model - and is sign-consistent but strongly attenuated on a multiple-choice control, consistent with damage that compounds with generation length. The sweep yields practical guidance: a training-free LRD pre-screen and a default-deepest placement rule, though absolute gains over no-adapter baselines remain small. Finally, apparent gains from a representation-stability loss reverse under an adequate generation budget - truncated chain-of-thought had been scored as empty - a methodological warning for any intervention evaluated on chain-of-thought tasks.

Nathan Labiosa, David Buff, Ena Nayak +1

University of Southern California

Large Language Models Fail Layer-Wise Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Dissociation Causal Reasoning Distributional Signatures

Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

When Many Answers Are Valid, Voting Fails: Symbolic Verification for Best-of-K Causal Reasoning in LLMs

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.

Omatharv Bharat Vaidya, Connor Thomas Jerzak, Zayne Rea Sprague +2

The University of Texas at Austin · New York University

Causal Reasoning Reasoning Traces Answer Symbol-Traces

Aug 3, 2026cs.AI

ReasonCast: Towards Explainable Time Series Forecasting with Reasoning

Most time series (TS) models are specialized for a single task, either understanding (i.e., returning text answers about a TS) or generation (i.e., returning a numeric forecast). Only recently have unified models begun to handle the two within a single architecture. Even these models, however, produce the two outputs as task-separated paths and cannot predict a series and explain why that prediction arises within a single coherent response. In this paper, we argue for a task-fused model that jointly produces 1) prediction (generation) and 2) selfexplanation (understanding), thereby integrating 1) numerical TS forecasting and 2) interpretable text reasoning within a single response. To enable the systematic study of this capability, we present both a benchmark and a recipe that jointly address the two tasks. The benchmark, ReasonTS-Bench, identifies five fundamental patterns underlying TS and enables the joint evaluation of both tasks. ReasonCast, our recipe for finetuning any LLM to perform both tasks jointly, yields a model that generates a reasoning chain and a forecast together in a single autoregressive pass. Extensive experiments show that ReasonCast outperforms both LLMs and TS models on prediction accuracy while producing verifiable, causal reasoning. Code is available at: https://github.com/seunghan96/reasoncast.

Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee +9

LG AI Research

Time Series Forecasting Reasoning Skills Causal Reasoning Single Pass

Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

The Role of Causality in Algorithmic Recourse

Algorithmic recourse aims to provide individuals with actionable changes to improve their predicted outcomes in high-stakes classification settings, such as loan and mortgage applications. However, most existing approaches focus only on flipping a model's prediction, without accounting for whether the recommended changes lead to genuine improvement in an individual's true qualifications or merely enable strategic gaming of the classifier. Consequently, deployed recourse policies can induce behavioral responses that degrade predictive accuracy and become ineffective after model retraining. In this work, we formalize this failure mode through a causal performative framework for recourse. We model how recourse actions propagate through a structural causal model, capturing interactions among features as well as their effect on the true label. These causal responses induce a non-convex optimization problem, even under standard convex losses. We characterize conditions under which performatively stable solutions exist and can be efficiently computed via simple iterative dynamics. Our analysis reveals that recourse policies that ignore causal structure can induce large, misaligned behavioral responses, whereas causal recourse leads to stable equilibria that reduce incentives for gaming. Experiments on both semi-synthetic and real credit datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms standard empirical risk minimization while reducing the need for repeated model retraining to accommodate distribution shifts caused by strategic agent behavior.

Srikanth Avasarala, Varun Gupta, Shahin Jabbari +2

Georgia Institute of Technology · Vector Institute · Drexel University +1

Causal Reasoning High-Stakes Domains Role Convex Loss

Jul 30, 2026cs.AI

Orca: Neural Operators for Causal Reasoning in Continuous Time

Structural causal models are the standard language for reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, but they describe static variables, typically measured once, and usually forbid cyclic dependencies. Many systems we care about, such as patients, climates, and economies, instead evolve continuously in time, are observed at irregular time points, and contain feedback loops. We argue that neural operator learning provides a natural foundation for causal reasoning in this setting, and propose Orca, a framework in which each node of the causal graph is a function of time and each mechanism is a learned map between function spaces. We extend existing neural operator architectures to express causal mechanisms: a mechanism computes the function value of a node from its parent nodes by taking several parent functions as input, respects the arrow of time, and treats latent exogenous noise as a function that can be inferred and reused for counterfactuals. We formalize the model class and demonstrate counterfactual reasoning on synthetic continuous-time examples. Code is available at https://github.com/gerritgr/orca

Gerrit Großmann, David A. Selby, Sebastian J. Vollmer

German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Kaiserslautern, Germany

Causal Reasoning Neural Operators Multiplicative Gamma Noise

Jul 20, 2026stat.ME

Equality, Equity, and Causality in Fairness Research: A Commentary on Cheng (2026)

This is an invited commentary on the Psychometrika focus article "Fairness Issues and Evaluation in Psychometrics and AI/ML: What Can We Learn from Each Field?" by Ying Cheng (2026, doi:10.1017/psy.2026.10110). Cheng offers a systematic comparison between long-standing test fairness and modern algorithmic fairness. Her mapping of the entire testing workflow onto the AI/ML fairness paradigm, rather than only the final selection stage, is a crucial contribution to interdisciplinary fairness research. This commentary extends her discussion by examining two conceptual issues: the distinction between equality and equity, and the role of causality in fairness research. Together, the focus article and this commentary point to directions for future fairness research across the psychometrics and AI/ML communities.

Youmi Suk

Teachers College, Columbia University

Algorithmic Fairness Psychometric Properties Methodology Equivalence Causal Reasoning

Jul 12, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Coordinate Gauge: An Audited Protocol for Detecting Donor-Specific Functional Fingerprints after Neural Collapse

Independently trained neural networks have no shared neuron-index reference frame, so comparing them requires accounting for coordinate freedom. Neural Collapse sharpens this problem: networks converge toward a shared, low-dimensional geometry, raising the question of whether trajectory-specific functional variation remains distinguishable after convergence. We distinguish three claims - detectability, transplantability, and causal persistence - and address the first. Using five independently trained networks reconstructing Neural Collapse on MNIST, we apply a verified affine-correct alignment mapping donor heads into recipient coordinates. Donor-specific functional fingerprints remain distinguishable after recipient-level baseline correction: all 20 ordered donor-recipient pairs are correctly identified, with an exact permutation p=0.0083, robust to a leakage audit. These findings establish detectability under the test used here, but not transplantability or causal persistence. The study shows how alignment, ambiguity diagnostics, and leakage control combine to test cross-network variation in a controlled setting; whether this generalizes beyond it is open.

Truong Xuan Khanh, Phan Thanh Duc

H&K Research Studio, Clevix LLC, Hanoi, Vietnam · Banking Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam

Neural Collapse Fingerprint Model Auditing Causal Reasoning

Jul 9, 2026cs.AI

CausalDS: Benchmarking Causal Reasoning in Data-Science Agents

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without a principled causal data-generating structure. Furthermore, existing causal evaluation datasets are often restricted to curated examples from existing sources, with diversity coming from limited templatized variations rather than from systematic generation of novel synthetic causal structures. We introduce CausalDS, a benchmark for evaluating causal reasoning in agentic data-science workflows. Each benchmark instance is a scene consisting of a sampled structural causal model (SCM) with generated observational data and an accompanying synthetic natural-language story grounded in a realistic domain. We optionally ground the composition of the benchmark components in empirical distributions obtained from real-world datasets, thus retaining empirical structure while reducing the "causal parrot" risk through completely synthetic generation. From each scene, we then derive tasks spanning all three of Pearl's rungs, with typical data-science prediction tasks appearing as Rung 1. Most tasks include a data science coding component, where the model typically needs to use several tools to arrive at the final answer due to the frequent presence of imperfect observations, which are generated by an observation model. Additionally, recognizing when a question admits no warranted answer and abstaining is treated as a first-class scored outcome. The benchmark thus jointly evaluates symbolic causal reasoning, data science, uncertainty quantification, abstention, and tool use/coding.

Andrej Leban, Yuekai Sun

Department of Statistics University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI, United States

Data Science Agents Causal Reasoning Agentic Benchmarks Causal Narrative Generation

Jul 4, 2026cs.CL

Optimizing Large Language Models for Causality Assessment in Pharmacovigilance: Developing a Performance Metric as Objective for Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization

Background: Growing individual case safety report (ICSR) volumes have intensified demand for scalable automated causality assessment. Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise, yet performance on clinically demanding tasks remains suboptimal and inference-time hyperparameter optimization has not been investigated. Objective: To develop a Gaussian Process (GP)-compatible optimization objective and investigate whether temperature optimization improves LLM-expert agreement on Naranjo causality assessment of FAERS ICSRs. Methods: Expert causality assessments were performed on 723 stratified FAERS cases. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 was evaluated using chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting. Four composite metrics were developed: Weighted Cosine Similarity (WCS), Information-Weighted Agreement Score (IWAS), Entropy-Weighted Agreement and Cosine Similarity Score (EWACS), and Consensus-Weighted Cosine Similarity (CWCS) and Bayesian optimization using a GP surrogate with Probability of Improvement (PoI) acquisition was applied across temperature [0, 2]. Results: GPT-5.2 outperformed prior biomedical LLMs at baseline (T = 0), achieving 74.1% agreement on question 5 and 65.4% on question 10 of Naranjo algorithm. Entropy analysis identified these as the sole informative optimization targets. Temperature showed no systematic population-level effect (\b{eta} = 0.002, p = 0.959). EWACS-guided Bayesian optimization improved causality classification agreement from 45.0% to 72.0% (+27 pp), with the largest gain in Doubtful cases (+42.9 pp). Conclusion: EWACS was identified as the optimal GP-compatible metric. The absence of a universal temperature optimum indicates LLM performance is driven primarily by ICSR content, yet case-specific temperature selection produced meaningful improvements, supporting temperature optimization for LLM-assisted pharmacovigilance.

Nicole Sonne Heckmann, Arnault-Quentin Vermillet, Søren Norlin Mølgaard +4

Department of Drug Design and Pharmacology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. · Safety Operations, Novo Nordisk, Søborg, Denmark. · Clinical Development Centre Denmark, Novo Nordisk, Søborg, Denmark. +1

Causal Reasoning Agreement Performance Metric Drug-Drug Interactions

Jul 2, 2026cs.AI

Actual causality in fault trees

Fault trees are a widely used as effective risk models for complex systems, answering the question "what can go wrong?", especially through minimal cut set analysis. We study fault trees from the perspective of Halpern & Pearl's theory of actual causality. This allows us to use fault trees to answer the question "why has it gone wrong?", which is fundamental to failure diagnostics. We give a complete classification of each of the different notions of actual causality in terms of the fault tree's graph structure and logical structure, and show how minimal cut sets give rise to actual causes.

Georgiana Caltais, Milan Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg, Mariëlle Stoelinga

University of Twente, The Netherlands · Radboud University, The Netherlands

Causal Reasoning Robot Failures Trees Maximum Independent Set

Jun 30, 2026cs.AI

Scientific Explanations in Health Sciences: Causality, Trust, and Epistemic Adequacy

Medical Artificial Intelligence (AI) is widely expected to transform clinical practice, yet the decision-making processes of many Machine Learning (ML) models remain opaque. Explainability has been advanced as a partial remedy to clarify why AI generates predictions, particularly in high-stakes contexts. Despite ongoing efforts, debates on what constitutes an adequate medical explanation remain unsettled. Yet, explanation has long been a central topic of inquiry in the philosophy of science and medicine. The insights developed in these fields, however, have been largely overlooked in contemporary explainable AI (XAI) research, leaving its foundational assumptions insufficiently examined. To address this gap, this paper develops a critical review at the intersection of philosophy of science and XAI. It examines prevailing accounts of what counts as an explanation in the health sciences and assesses their adequacy for informing XAI in medicine, arguing that they provide necessary conditions for a philosophically grounded approach to explainability in this domain. Building on this foundational philosophical literature, the discussion identifies three central axes of analysis: the role of causality in medical reasoning, the epistemic and relational dimensions of medical trust, and the criteria of explanatory adequacy as shaped by the pragmatic needs of diverse stakeholders. By integrating philosophical analysis with current developments in medical AI, the paper outlines principles for designing XAI systems that offer explanations that are not only epistemically robust but also aligned with the epistemic and practical requirements of clinical decision-making, shaping ongoing debates in medical XAI toward underexplored conceptual foundations.

Martina Mattioli, Marcello Pelillo

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Xai Causal Reasoning Scientific Discovery AI Trustworthiness

Jun 30, 2026cs.LO

Beyond But-for Test: Counterfactual Explanation in Abstract Argumentation via Actual Causality (Extended Version)

Counterfactual explanation in abstract argumentation calls for an answer to the what-if query: would the topic argument still be accepted if the status of certain other arguments were changed? Existing approaches are limited to the but-for test and fail to accommodate more refined counterfactual conditions. To overcome these limitations, we introduce an intervention-based counterfactual reasoning framework in abstract argumentation. Our approach encodes the acceptance conditions of arguments as equations, then defines an intervention operator that supports (1) changing sets of arguments simultaneously, and (2) fixing witness arguments to their actual labels. Guided by the refined counterfactual condition introduced in the Halpern-Pearl definition, our method goes beyond the but-for test, thereby correctly identifying causes in argumentation structures such as Preemption and Overdetermination. Through comparison, we show that our method surpasses prior methods in both expressiveness and reliability.

Siyi Liu, Muyun Shao, Beishui Liao

Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

Counterfactual Explanation Argumentation Frameworks Causal Reasoning Falsehood Extended Version

Jun 23, 2026cs.CV

Are Text-to-Image Models Inductivist Turkeys? A Counterfactual Benchmark for Causal Reasoning

Text-to-image (T2I) generation models have achieved remarkable progress in producing visually realistic images from natural language prompts. Yet it remains unclear whether their success reflects genuine causal understanding or sophisticated pattern matching over visual-textual correlations. Inspired by Russell's inductivist turkey, we introduce Counterfactual-World (CF-World), a counterfactual benchmark designed to investigate whether text-to-image models can generate images under rules that systematically contradict real-world priors. CF-World organizes each scenario into three progressive levels: factual generation under ordinary world knowledge, explicit counterfactual generation with direct visual instructions, and implicit counterfactual generation requiring causal deduction from altered rules. We evaluate both open-source and closed-source T2I models using a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based evaluator (CF-Eval). Furthermore, we introduce two metrics: Prior Resistance Rate (PRR), which measures a models' ability to overcome entrenched real-world priors, and Reasoning Retention Rate (RRR), which assesses whether models can maintain reasoning-dependent counterfactual generation without explicit visual cues. Experiments show that all models exhibit sharp degradation from factual to counterfactual settings. Further analyses suggest that these failures arise because current T2I models encode world knowledge and visual appearances as tightly coupled patterns. Consequently, their heavy reliance on frequent visual co-occurrences within the training data forces them to default to familiar commonsense priors when tasked with rendering counterfactual worlds.

Jiayi Lei, Yuandong Pu, Xingyu Han +8

Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai AI Laboratory · The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Modern Text-To-Image Models Text-To-Image Text Generation Causal Reasoning Prior Knowledge Integration Token Co-Occurrence Graphs

Jun 23, 2026cs.RO

Explaining Failures of Cyber-Physical Systems with Actual Causality

Modern autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs), such as self-driving cars, face increasingly complex demands, and yet are expected to act reliably. The black-box nature often characterizing such systems, especially those relying on neural components, makes it impossible to fully verify the system behavior prior to deployment. Unfortunately, unexpected failures-when the system does not comply with its specification-are inevitable and may have catastrophic implications. To improve trust in the system and facilitate future mitigation after a failure occurs, it is important to try to derive an explanation for the unexpected system behavior. This paper introduces the novel concept of leveraging the framework of actual causality for CPS failure explanation. Up until now, this framework was only used to derive explanations in the context of simple systems, such as image classifiers. This paper addresses the theoretical gaps and provides the guidance needed to allow for correct explanation derivation in the CPS domain. Beyond the theoretical contribution, the paper presents two novel, practical, system-agnostic explanation derivation algorithms, allowing to prioritize either explanation optimality or derivation efficiency. The approach is demonstrated and evaluated in the context of a neural-network-controlled autonomous car, designed to avoid collisions.

Khen Elimelech, Tom Yaacov, David A. Kelly +2

King’s College London · Rice University

Cyber-Physical System Causal Reasoning Derivations Black Box

Jun 14, 2026cs.CL

Vernier: Probing Representational Misalignment Behind Lexical Gaps in Causal Reasoning

Instruction-tuned language models can answer the same causal-reasoning question differently after its English variable names are replaced by type-preserving placeholders, although the structural causal model and the gold answer are unchanged. We ask whether this lexical gap reflects information loss in the placeholder view or a misaligned read-out from a representation that still carries answer-relevant content. Vernier uses a paired-view weight update as an instrument and then inspects the mechanism left after the gap closes. In the working regimes, the evidence favours representational misalignment. A variable-name probe becomes more accurate on the placeholder view, and activation patching on Qwen-7B, Qwen-14B, and Llama-3.1-8B shows that the decision-token representation can transfer answer identity between views. The update that realigns the views is counterfactual augmentation over original and placeholder prompts, while the answer-subspace KL mainly sharpens intermediate answer-belief agreement. Success is bounded by model family, scale, and task. CRASS transfer is reliable across Qwen scales and Llama, e-CARE remains weak, and preliminary non-causal rename tasks show a similar qualitative pattern.

Zhenyu Yu

College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Fudan University

Causal Reasoning Measures

Jun 11, 2026cs.AI

WISE: A Long-Horizon Agent in Minecraft with Why-Which Reasoning

Rapid advances have been made in developing general-purpose embodied agent in environments like Minecraft through the adoption of LLM-augmented hierarchical approaches. Despite their promise, low-level controllers often become performance bottlenecks due to repeated execution failures. We argue that a key limitation is not only the lack of episodic memory, but also the decoupling of \textit{what-where-when} memory from \textit{which-why} reasoning. To address this, we propose \textbf{WISE} (Which-Why Informed Semantic Explorer), a long-horizon agent framework with an enhanced low-level controller equipped with a Causal Event Graph that augments episodic memory with explicit causal structure linking observations to task relevance. Unlike prior work such as MrSteve, which relies on feature similarity for retrieval, WISE enables robust recall under viewpoint changes and supports opportunistic task reordering through causal reasoning. Building on this memory, we propose an Opportunistic Task Scheduler that dynamically re-prioritizes subtasks when causally relevant opportunities are detected. We further equip WISE with a multi-scale progressive exploration strategy to provide spatially comprehensive observations for downstream reasoning. Experiments show that WISE largely improves task success and efficiency on long-horizon sparse tasks, particularly in settings requiring adaptive decision-making.

Renmin Cheng, Changhao Chen

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

Long-Horizon Agents Episodic Memory Object-Level Control Causal Reasoning Stance Relevance

Jun 4, 2026cs.DB

Causal Scaffolding for Physical Reasoning: A Benchmark for Causally-Informed Physical World Understanding in VLMs

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

Tianyi Tang, Zhuoyi Lin, Zeyu Feng +4

CFAR, IHPC, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Singapore · I2R, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Singapore · Nanyang Technological University Singapore

Causal Reasoning Causal Graph Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

Reconciling Causality and Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics with Hamiltonian Causal Models

Causal modeling of physical temporal phenomena must handle interventions that act along trajectories, nonstationary induced laws, path-dependent effects, and feedback mediated by dynamics, all challenging in standard causal models. We introduce Hamiltonian Causal Models (HCMs), a trajectory-level framework in which observed variables interact with local environments and interventions act as controls of Hamiltonian mechanisms. HCMs separate immutable equations of motion from intervenable mechanisms and define causal effects as discrepancies between interventional path laws. A key motivation for HCMs is their natural interface with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Entropy production quantifies the irreversibility of a process and is a central causal observable: it is estimable from data and witnesses causal effects along the system's evolution that are invisible to endpoint and cumulative versions of the standard average treatment effect. As in physics, cause and effect are not primitives of the relation between two random variables but arise from the non-invertibility of the thermodynamic arrow. With this, our paper reconciles the language of statistical causal models and non-stationary thermodynamics, offering new tools to describe causality in a wide range of physical systems.

Dario Rancati, Max Welling, Francesco Locatello

Institute of Science and Technology Austria · University of Amsterdam

Causal Modeling Causal Reasoning Statistical Physics Pathways Non-Stationarity

May 29, 2026cs.CV

SVI-Bench: A Dynamic Microworld for Strategic Video Intelligence

True video intelligence demands more than recognizing what is visible: it requires reasoning about why events unfold, predicting what would change under different conditions, and deciding what to do next. We refer to this progression, from perception through causal reasoning and simulation to strategic planning, as Strategic Video Intelligence (SVI). No existing benchmark evaluates this capability stack: in-the-wild videos lack verifiable ground truth for causal and strategic questions, while synthetic environments sacrifice the complexity of real multi-agent systems. To bridge this gap, we introduce SVI-Bench, a large-scale benchmark that leverages team sports as a dynamic microworld, combining the complexity of real-world multi-agent interaction (10-22 agents making coordinated decisions under adversarial pressure) with the verifiability of explicit rules and definitive outcomes. SVI-Bench comprises approximately 35K hours of broadcast video, 15M annotated actions, 15K hours of expert commentary, 23K game reports, and 103K structured statistical records across basketball, soccer, and hockey, all constructed via a data engine that transforms raw game data into a dense, cross-referenced corpus. We organize evaluation into 9 tasks spanning a progressive four-pillar hierarchy: Dynamic Scene Understanding, Causal Reasoning, Strategic Simulation, and Agentic Synthesis. Evaluating strong multimodal and agentic baselines, we find a capability cliff: models perform competently on perceptual tasks, achieving approximately 74% on fine-grained action QA, but degrade sharply at each successive cognitive level. Agentic tasks prove hardest: the strongest model achieves only 5% accuracy when required to autonomously gather and integrate evidence across a corpus of 1.8M clips.

Yulu Pan, Han Yi, Seongsu Ha +4

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA · Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

Causal Reasoning

May 28, 2026cs.CV

YoCausal: How Far is Video Generation from World Model? A Causality Perspective

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

You-Zhe Xie, Yu-Hsuan Li, Jie-Ying Lee +3

National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University · Shanda AI Research Tokyo

Video Diffusion Models Causal Reasoning Video Generation Causal Attention Physical Plausibility World Models+2

May 28, 2026cs.CV

DMC-CF: Dynamic Multimodal CounterFactual QA benchmark for Causal Reasoning

With the rapid advancement of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), models have demonstrated increasingly powerful multimodal capabilities. However, whether MLLMs trained through statistical learning can truly understand the causal relationships underlying the real world remains a key research question. In recent years, numerous multimodal causal reasoning datasets have been proposed. Nevertheless, these datasets are either limited in scale or constructed from synthetic images and videos, cartoon-based content, or other non-realistic multimodal sources. To address these limitations, we collect real-world videos and construct DMC-CF-Static, a large-scale benchmark for multimodal causal counterfactual reasoning. Furthermore, to mitigate issues such as data contamination in traditional static evaluation, we represent causal events using causal graphs and propose the Dynamic Graph Intervention (DGI) framework to build the dynamic evaluation benchmark DMC-CF-Dynamic from DMC-CF-Static. Experimental results on the overall DMC-CF, which includes both static and dynamic evaluation benchmarks, demonstrate that the multimodal causal reasoning capabilities of current multimodal large language models in real-world scenarios still require substantial improvement.

Junzhe Zhang, Huixuan Zhang, Guirong Wang +5

Wangxuan Institute of Computer Technology, Peking University · Alibaba Group

Multimodal Reasoning Benchmarks Causal Reasoning Multimodal Large Language Models

May 27, 2026cs.AI

BEAMS: Benchmarking and Evaluating AI for Modeling and Simulation

AI tools to support real world decision making must be able to build simulation models that inform their recommendations and render them interpretable. Tools that can automate aspects of modeling practice must complement human expertise, not replace it. The BEAMS Initiative aims to guide the development of AI tools for modeling and simulation toward forms that are responsible and ethical by establishing benchmarks for human centered modeling and simulation practices. The initiative uses open digital and organizational infrastructure to collaboratively evaluate AI tools for modeling and simulation. The open source sd ai project hosted by the initiative establishes transparency and enables contributions to be shared broadly. A steering group focuses on prioritizing potential benchmarks, while a technical group focuses on implementing the benchmarks in the form of automated tests. Tests for several distinct categories of evaluation have been implemented and applied to AI tools that support qualitative model building, quantitative model building, and model discussion. These include tests for causal translation, model iteration, causal reasoning, conformance, model behavior explanation, suggested model building steps, and suggested model fixes. When engines from the sd ai project are coupled with different LLMs, their performance on these evaluations reveals variability across different AI tools. The evaluations implemented by the initiative demonstrate that AI enabled modeling tools perform better at discussion and basic qualitative tasks than with causal reasoning and quantitative error fixing. No single LLM dominates across engine types, highlighting the importance of specific tasks and tradeoffs between speed and accuracy. Ongoing efforts of the initiative aim to incorporate benchmarks that address concerns about bias by considering alternative perspectives and human centered use cases.

Sara Metcalf, William Schoenberg

ISEE Systems

Artificial Intelligence Evaluation User Simulation Causal Reasoning

May 25, 2026cs.CL

Causal Tongue-Tie: LLMs Can Encode Causal Direction, But Their Yes/No Outputs Fail to Express

We find a mismatch between what large language models encode about a causal question and what they answer. On anti-commonsense CLadder items, a fixed linear probe recovers the evidence-supported answer from the model's hidden state (accuracy approximately 0.97), while the spoken Yes/No reverts to the commonsense one (accuracy approximately 0.5). We call this approximately +0.5 gap Causal Tongue-Tie: a wrong Yes/No decomposes into two separable failure modes: no internal signal versus a signal the verbal interface cannot say. The implication cuts both ways for output-only causal benchmarks: a benchmark "correct" need not mean the model has understood, and a benchmark "wrong" need not mean it cannot. Sweeping claims about whether LLMs can do causal reasoning, drawn from a single accuracy number, deserve a second look.

Ziyi Ding, Xiao-Ping Zhang

Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University Shenzhen, China

Large Language Models Fail LLM Reasoning Strategies Causal Reasoning

May 24, 2026cs.CL

Towards a Universal Causal Reasoner

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

Qirun Dai, Xiao Liu, Jiawei Zhang +3

1The University of Chicago · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Causal Reasoning LLM Reasoning Strategies

May 22, 2026cs.CV

From Activation to Causality: Discovery of Causal Visual Representations in the Human Brain

Identifying which brain regions represent a visual concept in the human brain is a central challenge in neuroscience. Existing approaches have localized coarse functional regions (e.g., faces, places) through activation maximization, identifying regions that activate strongly for a target concept relative to other concepts. Yet strong activation alone does not establish that a region represents the concept itself, as responses may instead be driven by correlated visual or semantic cues. We introduce BrainCause, an automated framework that combines generative and brain models to synthesize controlled stimuli and validate neural representations through targeted causal testing. Given a query specifying a concept of interest, our framework constructs targeted stimulus sets comprising concept images, counterfactual edits that remove the target concept while preserving other image content, and images with candidate correlated distractors. It then uses an image-to-fMRI encoding model to predict brain responses and searches for representations that respond specifically to the target concept over correlated alternatives. BrainCause returns validated candidate representations and proposes follow-up fMRI experiments to further test or extend its discoveries. Our approach successfully recovers known functional localizations and identifies new candidate representations across dozens of concepts, validated on both predicted and measured fMRI data. Critically, we show that without causal validation, a large fraction of localizations would be false positives, confirming that activation alone is insufficient evidence of representation.

Yuval Golbari, Navve Wasserman, Matias Cosarinsky +5

Weizmann Institute of Science · Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Causal Representation Learning Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Causal Reasoning Discovery Query Image

May 22, 2026stat.ML

Causality as the Statistical Conscience of Artificial Intelligence: From Pearl's Ladder to Trustworthy Machines

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it -- it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.

Ernest Fokoué

School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science Rochester Institute of TechnologyMay Rochester, New York 14623, USA

Causal Inferences Causal Reasoning Statistical Inference

May 13, 2026stat.ML

Causal Learning with the Invariance Principle

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple environments (e.g., the way minimum wage affects employment rate is stable across different geographical regions), \textit{only} two auxiliary environments are sufficient to infer the causal graph for arbitrary nonlinear mechanisms. Moreover, we demonstrate that this implies identifiability of the SCM functional mechanisms: as a corollary, we show that \textit{two} auxiliary environments are sufficient to guarantee correct counterfactual inference. We empirically support our theoretical results on synthetic data.

Francesco Montagna, Francesco Locatello

Institute of Science and Technology Austria

Causal Discovery Methods Causal Graph Causal Causal Reasoning Principles Nonlinearity

May 13, 2026cs.CL

CommonWhy: A Dataset for Evaluating Entity-Based Causal Commonsense Reasoning in Large Language Models

To effectively interact with the real world, Large Language Models (LLMs) require entity-based commonsense reasoning, a challenging task that necessitates integrating factual knowledge about specific entities with commonsense inference. Existing datasets for evaluating LLM entity-based commonsense reasoning have largely focused on True/False or multiple-choice questions, leaving the explicit assessment of the model's ability in abductive reasoning about causes and effects and generating explanations largely unexamined. In this work, we introduce CommonWhy, a dataset of 15,000 why questions designed to evaluate entity-based commonsense reasoning about causal relationships in LLMs. CommonWhy also serves as a Knowledge Graph Question Answering (KGQA) benchmark, as all supporting knowledge required to answer its queries is available in the Wikidata knowledge graph. Unlike existing KGQA datasets, which primarily test fact retrieval, CommonWhy targets causal commonsense reasoning, establishing a new paradigm for KGQA evaluation. Experiments with state-of-the-art LLMs and LLM-based KGQA methods reveal their significant shortcomings, including frequent factual hallucinations and failures in causal reasoning.

Armin Toroghi, Faeze Moradi Kalarde, Scott Sanner

University of Toronto · Toronto, ON, Canada

Table Reasoning Datasets Knowledge Graphs Causal Reasoning

May 9, 2026cs.AI

CauSim: Scaling Causal Reasoning with Increasingly Complex Causal Simulators

Despite surpassing human performance across mathematics, coding, and other knowledge-intensive tasks, large language models (LLMs) continue to struggle with causal reasoning. A core obstacle is the target data itself: causal systems are complex and often expressed in non-executable forms, while ground-truth answers to causal queries are inherently scarce. We introduce CauSim, a framework that turns causal reasoning from a scarce-label problem into a scalable supervised one. CauSim constructs increasingly complex causal simulators: executable structural causal models (SCMs), incrementally built by LLMs, that scale to globally complex systems while maintaining verifiable answers to causal queries. CauSim operates across representations by formalizing non-executable causal knowledge into code, enabling data augmentation, and translating executable SCMs into natural language, enabling supervision in previously difficult-to-supervise representations. We structure our research into two parts: (1) how to construct increasingly complex causal simulators, and (2) a systematic study of what CauSim enables, demonstrating generalization across representations, consistent gains from curriculum scaling and data volume, LLM self-improvement through self-generated simulators, and data augmentation via formalization of existing domain knowledge.

Nicolás Astorga, Anita Kriz, Mihaela van der Schaar

DAMTP, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

LLM Reasoning Strategies Causal Reasoning Causal Discovery Methods

May 7, 2026cs.CL

Long Context Pre-Training with Lighthouse Attention

Training causal transformers at extreme sequence lengths is bottlenecked by the quadratic time and memory of scaled dot-product attention (SDPA). In this work, we propose Lighthouse Attention, a training-only symmetrical selection-based hierarchical attention algorithm that wraps around ordinary SDPA and can be easily removed towards the end of the training. Our hierarchical selection is also gradient-free, which exempts us from dealing with a complicated and potentially inefficient backward pass kernel. Our contribution is three-fold: (i) A subquadratic hierarchical pre- and post-processing step that does adaptive compression and decompression of the sequence. (ii) A symmetrical compression strategy that pools queries, keys and values at the same time, while preserving left-to-right causality, which greatly improves parallelism. (iii) A two stage training approach which we pre-train for the majority of the time with Lighthouse Attention and recover a full attention model at the end with a short training. We run preliminary small scale LLM pre-training experiments that show the effectiveness of our method compared to full attention training with all other settings matched, where we achieve a faster total training time and lower final loss after the recovery phase. Full code is available at: https://github.com/ighoshsubho/lighthouse-attention

Bowen Peng, Subho Ghosh, Jeffrey Quesnelle

Nous Research

Causal Reasoning

May 7, 2026stat.ME

A Topological Sorting Criterion for Random Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs

Random directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) based on imposing an order on Erdős-Rényi and scale free random graphs are widely used for evaluating causal discovery algorithms. We show that in such DAGs, the set of nodes reachable via open paths, termed relatives, increases monotonically along the causal order. We assess the prevalence of this pattern numerically, and demonstrate that it can be exploited for causal order recovery via sorting by the estimated number of relatives. We note that many simulations in the literature feature settings where this yields an excellent proxy for the causal order, and show that a strict increase of relatives along the causal order leads to a singular Markov equivalence class. We propose sampling time-series DAGs as a possible alternative and discuss implications for causal discovery algorithms and their evaluation on synthetic data.

Alexander G. Reisach, Antoine Chambaz, Gilles Blanchard +1

Laboratoire de Mathématiques d’Orsay Université Paris-Saclay 91400 Orsay, France · CNRS, MAP5 Université Paris Cité F-75006 Paris, France · Department of Mathematical Sciences and Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Causal Graph Causal Discovery Methods Causal Reasoning Acyclic Graphs Inhomogeneous Random Graphs Random

May 6, 2026cs.LG

On Semantic Loss Fine-Tuning Approach for Preventing Model Collapse in Causal Reasoning

Standard fine-tuning of transformer models on causal reasoning tasks leads to catastrophic model collapse, where models learn trivial solutions such as always predicting "Yes" or "No" regardless of input structure. We demonstrate that fine-tuning Gemma 270M on transitivity and d-separation tasks without semantic loss results in 100% collapse rate, with models achieving misleadingly high accuracy (73.9%) while learning no causal reasoning. We propose a semantic loss function with graph-based logical constraints and dynamic lambda scheduling that prevents this collapse. Our approach achieves 70.4% accuracy on transitivity tasks and 68.6% on d-separation tasks with stable, context-dependent predictions, representing a 42.7% improvement over collapsed baselines. Adversarial evaluation on 1,000 structural reasoning samples shows semantic models achieve 67-70% accuracy while collapsed models fail catastrophically at 43-71%. We validate our findings through comprehensive benchmarking on 200,000+ evaluation samples across five model variants, demonstrating that semantic loss is essential and not optional, for stable causal reasoning in transformers.

Pratik Deshmukh, Atirek Gupta

Technical University of Vienna, Austria · HCLTech, Noida, India

Causal Reasoning Collapse Transformer Architectures Ablation Model Fine-Tuning

May 5, 2026cs.CL

NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.

Zhi Xu, Yun Fu

Northeastern University

LLM Reasoning Strategies Causal Reasoning Causal Graph Causal Noisy Data

May 4, 2026cs.AI

Trustworthy AI Suffers from Invariance Conflicts and Causality is The Solution

As artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) models and foundation models (FMs), are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, ensuring their trustworthiness has become a central challenge. However, the core trustworthy AI objectives, such as fairness, robustness, privacy, and explainability, are hard to achieve simultaneously, especially while preserving utility. This position paper argues that causality is necessary to understand and balance trade-offs in performance and multiple objectives of trustworthy AI. We ground our arguments in re-interpreting trustworthy AI trade-offs as incompatible invariance requirements under different changes to the data-generating process. We then illustrate this argument through case-study analyses from the literature and a stylized synthetic-data simulation, showing that causality provides a unifying framework for understanding how trade-offs in trustworthy AI arise and how they can be softened or resolved through selective invariance. This perspective applies to both classical ML models and large-scale FMs. Finally, we outline open challenges and opportunities for using causality to build both trustworthy and high-performing AI.

Ruta Binkyte, Ivaxi Sheth, Zhijing Jin +3

CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen · EuroSafeAI +3

Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence Causal Reasoning Synthetic Data

May 4, 2026cs.AI

Shadow-Loom: Causal Reasoning over Graphical World Models of Narratives

Stories hold a reader's attention because they have causes, secrets, and consequences. Shadow-Loom is an experimental open-source framework that turns a narrative into a versioned graphical world model and lets two engines act on it: a causal physics grounded in Pearl's ladder of causation and a recently proposed counterfactual calculus over Ancestral Multi-World Networks; and a narrative physics that scores the same graph against four structural reader-states -- mystery, dramatic irony, suspense, and surprise -- in the tradition of Sternberg's curiosity/suspense/surprise triad, with suspense formalised in the structural-affect line of work on story comprehension and computational suspense. Large language models are used only at the boundary: extraction, rendering, and audit; identification, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning are carried out in typed code over the graph. The system is offered as a research artefact rather than as a benchmarked NLP model; code, fixtures, and pipeline are released open source.

David Wilmot

Narratives Causal Reasoning Violence Detection

May 3, 2026cs.LG

ISAAC: Auditing Causal Reasoning in Deep Models for Drug-Target Interaction

Deep learning models for drug--target interaction (DTI) prediction often achieve strong benchmark performance without necessarily relying on mechanistically meaningful molecular features, a limitation that standard accuracy-based evaluation cannot detect. We introduce ISAAC (Intervention-based Structural Auditing Approach for Causal Reasoning), a post-hoc framework that evaluates prior-relative structural sensitivity by probing frozen models through matched mechanistic and spurious input-level interventions, independently of predictive accuracy. Applied to three sequence-based DTI architectures on the Davis benchmark, ISAAC reveals approximately 25% relative differences in reasoning scores across models with comparable AUROC (within around 3%), stable across training and intervention seeds and two distinct perturbation operators. These discrepancies, undetectable under conventional accuracy metrics, motivate the use of post-hoc structural auditing as a complement to standard performance evaluation in scientific machine learning for molecular modeling.

Barbara Tarantino, Sun Kim, Yijingxiu Lu +1

Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Seoul National University, Gwanak-gu 08826, Korea.

Moleculenet Model Auditing Causal Reasoning

Apr 23, 2026cs.AI

Time, Causality, and Observability Failures in Distributed AI Inference Systems

Distributed AI inference pipelines rely heavily on timestamp-based observability to understand system behavior. This work demonstrates that even small clock skew between nodes can cause observability to become causally incorrect while the system itself remains functionally correct and performant. We present controlled experiments on a multi-node AI inference pipeline, where clock skew is introduced at a single stage. Results show that no violations are observed under synchronized conditions and up to 3 ms skew, while clear causality violations emerge by 5 ms. Despite this, system throughput and output correctness remain largely unaffected. We further observe that violation behavior is not strictly static. In longer runs, negative span rates may stabilize or decrease over time, indicating that effective skew evolves due to relative clock drift between nodes. Experiments were conducted using Kafka and ZeroMQ transports, with consistent results across both. Aeron is under active exploration but is not yet included in the completed validation set. These findings suggest that observability correctness depends not only on system functionality but also on precise time alignment, and that timing must be treated as a first-class concern in distributed AI systems.

Ankur Sharma, Deep Shah, David Lariviere +1

Unified Intelligent Infrastructure workstream at the Open Compute Project (OCP)

Agentic Inference Distributed Optimization Partial Observability Causal Reasoning

Apr 21, 2026cs.AI

Separable Pathways for Causal Reasoning: How Architectural Scaffolding Enables Hypothesis-Space Restructuring in LLM Agents

Causal discovery through experimentation and intervention is fundamental to robust problem solving. It requires not just updating beliefs within a fixed framework but revising the hypothesis space itself, a capacity current AI agents lack when evidence demands representations they have not previously constructed. We extend the blicket detector paradigm from developmental science to test this capacity in AI agents equipped with architectural scaffolding that targets hypothesis-space restructuring. Our compositional architecture has two discrete components: context graphs, which structure exploration as typed state machines, and dynamic behaviors, which monitor for evidence that the current hypothesis space is inadequate and expand it at runtime. Across 1,085 experimental trials, these components make orthogonal contributions: context graphs drive reasoning quality within the post-switch hypothesis space, accounting for 94% of the accuracy gain, while dynamic behaviors drive reasoning eligibility by detecting regime changes and preventing premature commitment to outdated hypotheses.

John Alderete, Sebastian Benthal, Connie Xu +1

Amigo AI · Simon Fraser University · International Computer Science Institute

Agentic Reasoning Hypothesis-Driven Model Expansion Artificial Intelligence Agents Large Language Model Agents Causal Reasoning Hypothesis Class

Apr 21, 2026cs.CL

Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction in Conversations via Semantic Decoupling and Graph Alignment

Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction in Conversations (ECPEC) aims to identify the set of causal relations between emotion utterances and their triggering causes within a dialogue. Most existing approaches formulate ECPEC as an independent pairwise classification task, overlooking the distinct semantics of emotion diffusion and cause explanation, and failing to capture globally consistent many-to-many conversational causality. To address these limitations, we revisit ECPEC from a semantic perspective and seek to disentangle emotion-oriented semantics from cause-oriented semantics, mapping them into two complementary representation spaces to better capture their distinct conversational roles. Building on this semantic decoupling, we naturally formulate ECPEC as a global alignment problem between the emotion-side and cause-side representations, and employ optimal transport to enable many-to-many and globally consistent emotion-cause matching. Based on this perspective, we propose a unified framework SCALE that instantiates the above semantic decoupling and alignment principle within a shared conversational structure. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that SCALE consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Our codes are released at https://github.com/CoCoSphere/SCALE.

Tianxiang Ma, Weijie Feng, Xinyu Wang +1

Hefei University of Technology

Emotion Recognition Causal Reasoning Discourse

Apr 16, 2026cs.CL

ClimateCause: Complex and Implicit Causal Structures in Climate Reports

Understanding climate change requires reasoning over complex causal networks. Yet, existing causal discovery datasets predominantly capture explicit, direct causal relations. We introduce ClimateCause, a manually expert-annotated dataset of higher-order causal structures from science-for-policy climate reports, including implicit and nested causality. Cause-effect expressions are normalized and disentangled into individual causal relations to facilitate graph construction, with unique annotations for cause-effect correlation, relation type, and spatiotemporal context. We further demonstrate ClimateCause's value for quantifying readability based on the semantic complexity of causal graphs underlying a statement. Finally, large language model benchmarking on correlation inference and causal chain reasoning highlights the latter as a key challenge.

Liesbeth Allein, Nataly Pineda-Castañeda, Andrea Rocci +1

Department of Computer Science, KU Leuven, Belgium · Institute of Argumentation, Linguistics, and Semiotics (IALS), Universit`a della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland

Causal Graph Causal Reasoning Climate

Feb 23, 2026cs.AI

CausalFlip: A Benchmark for LLM Causal Judgment Beyond Semantic Matching

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on traditional reasoning benchmarks does not guarantee true causal reasoning ability of LLMs, as high accuracy may still arise from memorizing semantic patterns instead of analyzing the underlying true causal structures. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a new causal reasoning benchmark, CausalFlip, designed to encourage the development of new LLM paradigm or training algorithms that ground LLM reasoning in causality rather than semantic correlation. CausalFlip consists of causal judgment questions built over event triples that could form different confounder, chain, and collider relations. Based on this, for each event triple, we construct pairs of semantically similar questions that reuse the same events but yield opposite causal answers, where models that rely heavily on semantic matching are systematically driven toward incorrect predictions. To further probe models' reliance on semantic patterns, we introduce a noisy-prefix evaluation that prepends causally irrelevant text before intermediate causal reasoning steps without altering the underlying causal relations or the logic of the reasoning process. We evaluate LLMs under multiple training paradigms, including answer-only training, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) supervision, and a proposed internalized causal reasoning approach that aims to mitigate explicit reliance on correlation in the reasoning process. Our results show that explicit CoT can still be misled by spurious semantic correlations, where internalizing reasoning steps yields substantially improved causal grounding, suggesting that it is promising to better elicit the latent causal reasoning capabilities of base LLMs.

Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li

University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Causal Reasoning LLM Reasoning Strategies

Jun 1, 2025cs.CL

What's Missing in Vision-Language Models? Probing Their Struggles with Causal Order Reasoning

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Zhaotian Weng, Haoxuan Li, Xin Eric Wang +2

University of Southern California · University of California, Santa Barbara · Texas A&M University

Visual Reasoning Causal Reasoning Causal Order

Nov 13, 2024cs.AI

Causal Explanations for Image Classifiers

Existing algorithms for explaining the output of image classifiers use different definitions of explanations and a variety of techniques to find them. However, none of the existing tools use a principled approach based on formal definitions of cause and explanation. In this paper we present a novel black-box approach to computing explanations grounded in the theory of actual causality. We prove relevant theoretical results and present an algorithm for computing approximate explanations based on these definitions. We prove termination of our algorithm and discuss its complexity and the amount of approximation compared to the precise definition. We implemented the framework in a tool ReX and we present experimental results and a comparison with state-of-the-art tools. We demonstrate that ReX is the most efficient black-box tool and produces the smallest explanations, in addition to outperforming other black-box tools on standard quality measures.

Hana Chockler, David A. Kelly, Daniel Kroening +1

King’s College London, London, UK · Amazon.com, Inc.,, USA · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, Abu Dhabi, UAE +1

Explainability Explainable AI Methods Black Box Image Classification Causal Reasoning Causal+1

Jul 12, 2024stat.ML

Granger Causality in Extremes

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among time-varying variables. While this notion gains heightened importance during extreme and highly volatile periods, state-of-the-art methods primarily focus on causality within the body of the distribution, often overlooking causal mechanisms that manifest only during extreme events. Our framework is designed to infer causality mainly from extreme events by leveraging the causal tail coefficient. We establish equivalences between causality in extremes and other causal concepts, including (classical) Granger causality, Sims causality, and structural causality. We prove other key properties of Granger causality in extremes and show that the framework is especially helpful under the presence of hidden confounders. We also propose a novel inference method for detecting the presence of Granger causality in extremes from data. Our method is model-free, can handle non-linear and high-dimensional time series, outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in all considered setups, both in performance and speed, and was found to uncover coherent effects when applied to financial and extreme weather observations.

Juraj Bodik, Olivier C. Pasche

Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley, California, USA · Research Institute for Statistics and Information Science, University of Geneva, Switzerland +1

Causal Discovery Methods Extremes Causal Reasoning

Jun 12, 2024cs.LG

Causality for Tabular Data Synthesis: A High-Order Structure Causal Benchmark Framework

Existing evaluations of tabular synthesis models rely primarily on low-order statistics and downstream task performance, leaving multivariate causal relationships that go beyond pairwise correlations largely unmeasured. We argue that a systematic evaluation on high-order structural information is a crucial first step in addressing this issue in tabular data synthesis. In this paper, we present high-order structural causal information as a natural form of prior knowledge and introduce a benchmark framework to evaluate tabular synthesis models. This framework allows us to generate benchmark datasets through a flexible range of data generation processes, allowing for the training of tabular synthesis models using these datasets for further evaluation. We propose multiple benchmark tasks, high-order metrics, and causal inference tasks as downstream tasks for evaluating the quality of synthetic data generated by the trained models. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the benchmark framework in evaluating the model's ability to capture high-order structural causal information. Furthermore, our benchmarking results provide an initial assessment of state-of-the-art tabular synthesis models. These results reveal significant gaps between ideal and actual performance and highlight how baseline methods differ. We position the framework as a controlled diagnostic benchmark for causal fidelity, complementing existing low-order and downstream evaluations. We open source the benchmark framework, including both code and data along with documentation, to support further research in this area.

Zineb Senane, Axel Karlsson, Lele Cao +6

KTH Royal Institute of Technology · Stockholm, Sweden · King AI Labs, Microsoft +2

Synthetic Tabular Data Causal Modeling Causal Inferences Causal Reasoning Diagnostic Benchmark Distributional Fidelity

Apr 1, 2024cs.CV

CausalChaos! Dataset for Comprehensive Causal Action Question Answering Over Longer Causal Chains Grounded in Dynamic Visual Scenes

Causal video question answering (QA) has garnered increasing interest, yet existing datasets often lack depth in causal reasoning. To address this gap, we capitalize on the unique properties of cartoons and construct CausalChaos!, a novel, challenging causal Why-QA dataset built upon the iconic "Tom and Jerry" cartoon series. Cartoons use the principles of animation that allow animators to create expressive, unambiguous causal relationships between events to form a coherent storyline. Utilizing these properties, along with thought-provoking questions and multi-level answers (answer and detailed causal explanation), our questions involve causal chains that interconnect multiple dynamic interactions between characters and visual scenes. These factors demand models to solve more challenging, yet well-defined causal relationships. We also introduce hard incorrect answer mining, including a causally confusing version that is even more challenging. While models perform well, there is much room for improvement, especially, on open-ended answers. We identify more advanced/explicit causal relationship modeling & joint modeling of vision and language as the immediate areas for future efforts to focus upon. Along with the other complementary datasets, our new challenging dataset will pave the way for these developments in the field. Project Page: https://github.com/LUNAProject22/CausalChaos

Paritosh Parmar, Eric Peh, Ruirui Chen +4

Institute of High-Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University · National University of Singapore +1

Causal Reasoning Long Video Question Answering Table Reasoning Datasets Causal Attention Chaos

Date pendingcs.LG

Aligning Language Models with Observational Data: Opportunities and Risks from a Causal Perspective

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate text that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as medication adherence in patient messaging and conversion rates in content generation. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering, logistical, and ethical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. In simulation experiments, DeconfoundLM more accurately recovers causal relationships and mitigates failure modes of methods that assume counterfactual invariance, achieving over 16% higher objective score than ODIN and other baselines, when entangled confounding is present. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Erfan Loghmani

Foster School of Business University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195

Large Language Model Fine-Tuning Large Language Models Fail Latent Confounders Large Language Model Alignment Causal Reasoning Risk