Credit Assignment

We propose incentive-aligned mechanisms for in-context credit assignment: the task of assigning credit for AI-generated content among creators whose intellectual property appears in the context window. Our approach is based on the least core solution concept from cooperative game theory, which distributes value in a way that is as stable as possible by ensuring that no subset of creators is significantly under-compensated relative to the value they could generate on their own. We develop algorithms for approximating the least core, which leverage novel routines for constraint seeding and constraint separation. On a web retrieval credit assignment task, we find that our approaches approximate the least core using an order of magnitude fewer LLM calls compared to alternative methods.

Long-horizon LLM agents depend on intermediate information-gathering turns, yet training feedback is usually observed only at the final answer, because process-level rewards require high-quality human annotation. Existing turn-level shaping methods reward turns that increase the likelihood of a gold answer, but they require answer supervision or stable task-specific verifiers. Conversely, label-free RL methods extract self-signals from output distributions, but mainly at the answer or trajectory level and therefore cannot assign credit to intermediate turns. We propose Self-Induced Outcome Potential (SIOP), which treats semantic clusters of final answers as latent future outcome states for potential-based turn-level credit assignment. For each query, SIOP samples multiple rollouts, clusters final answers into semantic outcome modes, and builds a reliability-aware target distribution over these states. It then rewards turns for increasing posterior support for reliable future states using a tractable cluster-level approximation. The objective generalizes information-potential shaping from gold-answer supervision to settings without task-specific gold verifiers while avoiding the broadcasted rollout-level advantages used by standard GRPO. We formalize the framework, characterize its supervised gold-answer limit, and show that SIOP improves average performance over verifier-free outcome-level baselines on seven search-augmented agentic reasoning benchmarks while approaching a gold-supervised outcome baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/SIOP.git.

Memory systems are widely adopted to enhance LLMs for long-horizon tasks, and are commonly organized as multi-agent pipelines with memory building, summarizing, and retrieval agents. To empower this system, existing RL-based methods either apply final downstream task rewards (e.g., QA accuracy) for all agents uniformly, which are coarse and ambiguous, or design task-specific rewards for agents on different subtasks, which require costly annotations (e.g., key evidence) and are difficult to define reliably. To address these limitations, we propose Tree-based Credit Assignment for Multi-Agent Memory Systems (TreeMem), which derives agent-specific credit from the final reward without task-specific annotations. Specifically, TreeMem extends the multi-agent pipeline (builder--summarizer--retrieval) into a tree structure, where each agent's outputs are expanded into multiple subsequent branches. The contribution of each agent is estimated via Monte Carlo averaging over its subsequent branches, capturing how intermediate agent actions may influence the final reward. This converts the coarse final reward into agent-specific optimization signals. These signals are then used to update all agent policies simultaneously, helping heterogeneous agents specialize effectively. Experiments on long-horizon benchmarks show that TreeMem improves memory system performance over strong baselines, validating the effectiveness of tree-structured credit assignment for the multi-agent memory system.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) performs coarse-grained credit assignment in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) by assigning the same advantage to all tokens in a rollout. Process reward models can provide finer-grained supervision, but they require step-level annotation or additional reward modeling. We show that hidden-state distributions contain a useful signal for local reasoning quality that can be extracted using only outcome-level correctness labels available in RLVR. Specifically, within each GRPO group, the Wasserstein distance between span-level hidden state distributions of correct and incorrect rollouts increases around regions where their local reasoning quality diverges. This association holds both across examples and within individual trajectories, suggesting that hidden-state distributional divergence can serve as a self-supervision signal for fine-grained credit assignment. We formalize this observation with a separation theorem showing that, under mild structural assumptions, post-divergence spans have larger Wasserstein distances than pre-divergence spans whenever the population-level distributional gap exceeds finite-sample noise. Motivated by this result, we propose Span-level Hidden state Enabled Advantage Reweighting (SHEAR), which modifies GRPO by using span-level Wasserstein distances to scale token-level advantages, amplifying updates on tokens whose hidden states are more separated from the opposing group. The method requires no additional model and only minimal changes to the training pipeline. Experiments on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks and five code generation benchmarks show improvements over standard GRPO and strong performance relative to supervised process reward models, while requiring no additional annotation or reward model training.

Reinforcement learning for multi-step reasoning with large language models (LLMs) typically relies on sparse terminal rewards, which creates a poorly conditioned credit-assignment problem: the final feedback is propagated uniformly across all intermediate decisions. This leads to high gradient variance, unstable training, and many ineffective updates, ultimately limiting sustained model improvement. We propose a counterfactual-comparison framework for credit assignment. For each input, the framework samples multiple reasoning trajectories and treats their differences as implicit approximations to alternative decisions. This yields an implicit process-level advantage estimator that converts sparse terminal rewards into step-sensitive learning signals. Building on this framework, we introduce Implicit Behavior Policy Optimization (IBPO), which substantially improves training stability and the performance ceiling on mathematical and code-reasoning benchmarks. Our results point to a promising direction for unlocking the reasoning potential of LLMs.

In cooperative teams where agents act in a fixed order and share a single team-level reward (multi-agent language systems, sequential robotic tasks), per-agent credit assignment is under-determined. Critic-based approaches scale poorly as the number of agents grows owing to the costly maintenance of joint/factored critic(s), whereas the existing critic-free alternatives have other issues: common credit across agents that couples every agent's signal to teammate noise, importance-sampling corrections for upstream-update staleness that incur variance exponential in team size, or per-agent counterfactual replay that isolates each agent's effect at the price of extra environment or reward calls. We propose COSAC, a critic-free per-agent policy gradient for sequential cooperative teams. COSAC fits an additive per-agent decomposition of the team reward by a single ridge regression on the rollout batch (giving each agent a learning signal decoupled from teammate noise), and computes each agent's counterfactual advantage from fictitious continuations of the current policy (policy forward passes that replace both importance-sampling reweighting and per-agent environment replay, at no extra environment or reward cost). The estimator instantiates the Sequential Aristocrat Utility (SeqAU), our extension of Wolpert and Tumer's (2001) aristocrat utility to sequential teams. We prove bias and variance bounds on SeqAU credits that stay controlled as the team grows. Our controlled study on sequential bandits demonstrates that COSAC attains the lowest advantage MSE and consistently low learning regret across team sizes up to $K = 16$. On the AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC) task, where four Qwen3-0.6B agents reason in turn about a grade-school science question, COSAC attains faster convergence than the other critic-free baselines.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs), but sparse outcome rewards make token-level credit assignment difficult. We study token-level credit as a reward-conditioned shift from the behavior policy to a hindsight posterior. In autoregressive RLVR, this shift can be expressed through Conditional Mutual Information (CMI), which shows that token entropy upper-bounds possible hindsight credit. Entropy, however, indicates capacity rather than update direction, so we introduce the Four Quadrant Decomposition to separate updates by reward polarity and token entropy. Controlled interventions show that these two factors jointly shape token updates. Sustained reasoning gains concentrate in signed high-entropy quadrants, whereas low-entropy updates saturate quickly. Based on this analysis, we propose Hindsight-Aware Policy Optimization (HAPO), a sign-preserving modification to GRPO that performs capacity-guided advantage reallocation. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks in two model settings show that HAPO achieves competitive performance among entropy-aware baselines.

We develop a unified treatment of credit assignment for RL training in multi-agent LLM systems. We show that observed reward alone cannot distinguish an agent that determines it from one that never affects it, and that standard shared-reward training performs exact gradient ascent on each agent's private utility rather than system performance. Moreover, we prove no single scalar per agent can consistently account for joint performance once agents interact. We thus develop the unique background-dependent notion of marginal contribution satisfying natural consistency requirements. From it we derive gradient-correct marginal contribution training signals, identify them from filtered feedback, and optimally allocate a budget of exact counterfactual evaluations against learned-signal error. Instantiated in GRPO, our signal improves routed GSM8K accuracy over winner-take-all training at no extra generation cost.

Critic-free reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves code generation by optimizing unit-test pass rates, but GRPO-style updates suffer from coarse credit assignment: a single outcome signal is spread uniformly across long programs even when failure stems from a localized semantic error. We propose Execution-Grounded Credit Assignment (EGCA), which localizes GRPO updates using execution traces. For programs that satisfy algorithmic constraints but fail tests, EGCA executes the candidate and a canonical reference solution (curated once offline; used for analysis, not supervision) under identical instrumentation, identifies the earliest semantic divergence, and assigns advantage only to the corresponding token span while masking downstream tokens. EGCA is a drop-in modification requiring no critic, auxiliary loss, or learned verifier, yielding 82.1% pass@1 on HumanEval (+3.1 over GRPO) and 68.9% on MBPP (+1.5) with 18% wall-clock overhead.

Credit assignment for a team of LLM agents, what each message was worth, has mostly been treated as prediction: a learned critic, a trajectory-level score, or an agent ablation stands in for the counterfactual that defines credit, which is rarely run. Teams that communicate through a shared context are different: when everything a downstream agent reads is written into the trace, the trace is the state, and that counterfactual can be executed. A credit signal can then be judged as any estimator is: by bias, variance, and agreement with an independent reference. C3, credit assignment by counterfactual continuation, substitutes one message at a decision point and continues the run to the terminal reward, so its credit is unbiased, exact up to Monte Carlo error. Given the sampled alternatives, that error's variance follows a derived law with no term for the number of agents, and the observed noise follows the law on 6 workflows of 2 to 10 decision points. On the 2-agent chain, from 4 continuations, C3 ranks alternatives at 0.69 rank correlation against a 16-continuation reference, near the 0.73 at which 2 such references agree; a critic trained on the same rollouts reaches 0.29. Used as the advantage in training a 2-agent team, C3 beats MAGRPO, the stronger baseline in our comparison, and spends 37% fewer training tokens than MAPPO, since only the messages downstream of a decision point are regenerated. When the trace is the state, credit need not be predicted; it can be exact.

To promote cooperation in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning, the reward signals of all agents can be aggregated together, forming global rewards that are commonly known as the fully cooperative setting. However, global rewards are usually noisy because they contain the contributions of all agents, which have to be resolved in the credit assignment process. On the other hand, using local reward benefits from faster learning due to the separation of agents' contributions, but can be suboptimal as agents myopically optimize their own reward while disregarding the global optimality. In this work, we propose a method that combines the merits of both approaches. By using a graph of interaction between agents, our method discerns the individual agent contribution in a more fine-grained manner than a global reward, while alleviating the cooperation problem with agents' local reward. We also introduce a practical approach for approximating such a graph. Our experiments demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, enabling improvements over the traditional local and global reward settings.