Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

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Overview

Long-term time series forecasting uses past observations to predict many steps into the future, supporting planning when decisions must be made well ahead of time. Methods range from trend and seasonal decomposition, linear models, and patch-based mixers to Transformers, state-space models, and graph networks for linked locations or variables. Some approaches add physical dynamics, external signals, or retrieval of similar historical cases, while probabilistic models represent uncertainty as well as a single forecast. A central challenge is keeping forecasts stable under distribution shifts and accumulated errors; strong pointwise accuracy can still come at the cost of realistic uncertainty, structural fidelity, or efficiency.

Latest papers

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115 papers20 papers in the last four weeks, up 82% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. DySCo: Dynamic Semantic Compression for Effective Long-term Time Series Forecasting

    Apr 1, 2026Xiang Ao, Yinyu Tan, Mengru ChenLong-Term Time Series ForecastingMultiscale Time-Series Modeling

    School of Software Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

  2. Meteorology-Driven GPT4AP: A Multi-Task Forecasting LLM for Atmospheric Air Pollution in Data-Scarce Settings

    Mar 31, 2026Prasanjit Dey, Soumyabrata Dev, Bianca Schoen-PhelanAir Quality PredictionLLM-Based Time Series Forecasting

    ADAPT SFI Research Centre, School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, Ireland · ADAPT SFI Research Centre, School of Computer Science, University College Dublin · School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, Ireland

  3. DSO: Dual-Scale Neural Operators for Stable Long-term Fluid Dynamics Forecasting

    Mar 26, 2026Huanshuo Dong, Hao Wu, Hong Wang +2PDE Operator LearningNeural Operators

    University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China +1

  4. TimeAPN: Adaptive Amplitude-Phase Non-Stationarity Normalization for Time Series Forecasting

    Mar 18, 2026Yue Hu, Jialiang Tang, Siwei Yu +3Non-Stationary Time Series ForecastingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    School of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, China · Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore +2

  5. VisiFold: Long-Term Traffic Forecasting via Temporal Folding Graph and Node Visibility

    Mar 12, 2026Zhiwei Zhang, Xinyi Du, Weihao Wang +2Traffic ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Key Laboratory of Big Data & Artificial Intelligence in Transportation (Beijing Jiaotong University), Ministry of Education · School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China · Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

  6. Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Retaining Wall Deformation: Mitigating Error Accumulation via Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Stacking Ensemble

    Mar 11, 2026Jihoon Kim, Heejung YounSpatiotemporal ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, 94, Wausan-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul, 04066, Republic of Korea

  7. Rethinking Adam for Time Series Forecasting: A Simple Heuristic to Improve Optimization under Distribution Shifts

    Mar 10, 2026Yuze Dong, Jinsong WuAdaptive Gradient MethodsNon-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

    School of Artificial Intelligence, Guilin University of Electronic Technology 1 Jinji Road, Guilin, 541004, Guangxi, China · Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Chile Av. Tupper 2007, Santiago, 8370451, Chile

  8. Are We Winning the Wrong Game? Revisiting Evaluation Practices for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Mar 9, 2026Thanapol Phungtua-eng, Yoshitaka YamamotoTime Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Shizuoka University, Shizuoka, Japan

  9. N-Tree Diffusion for Long-Horizon Wildfire Risk Forecasting

    Mar 7, 2026Yucheng Xing, Xin WangWildfire ForecastingDiffusion Models

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA

  10. UniMamba: A Unified Spatial-Temporal Modeling Framework with State-Space and Attention Integration

    Mar 6, 2026Xingsheng Chen, Xianpei Mu, Deyu Yi +6Multivariate Time Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China · School of Information Engineering, Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication, Beijing, China · Innovation Engineering College, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macau, China +1

  11. Towards Efficient and Stable Ocean State Forecasting: A Continuous-Time Koopman Approach

    Mar 5, 2026Rares Grozavescu, Pengyu Zhang, Mark Girolami +1Spatiotemporal ForecastingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK · Alan Turing Institute, London, UK · INRIA, Paris, France

  12. Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling

    Mar 5, 2026Yong Liu, Xingjian Su, Shiyu Wang +7Time Series ForecastingTime-Series Foundation Models

    Tsinghua University · ByteDance

  13. XLinear: Frequency-Enhanced MLP with CrossFilter for Robust Long-Range Forecasting

    Mar 4, 2026Xiang AoFrequency-Domain Time Series ModelingRobust Time Series Forecasting

    School of Software Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

  14. Sub-City Real Estate Price Index Forecasting at Weekly Horizons Using Satellite Radar and News Sentiment

    Feb 20, 2026Baris Arat, Hasan Fehmi Ates, Emre SeferTime Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Ozyegin University, Istanbul, Turkey

  15. Stable Long-Horizon Spatiotemporal Prediction on Meshes Using Latent Multiscale Recurrent Graph Neural Networks

    Feb 20, 2026Lionel Salesses, Larbi Arbaoui, Tariq Benamara +2Spatiotemporal ForecastingNeural Surrogate Modeling

    Cenaero, Gosselies, Belgium

  16. HPMixer: Hierarchical Patching for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Feb 18, 2026Jung Min Choi, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-ThiemeMultivariate Time Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    ISMLL, University of Hildesheim

  17. SEMixer: Semantics Enhanced MLP-Mixer for Multiscale Mixing and Long-term Time Series Forecasting

    Feb 18, 2026Xu Zhang, Qitong Wang, Peng Wang +1Long-Term Time Series ForecastingMulti-Scale Feature Fusion

    Shanghai Key Laboratory of Data Science, College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States

  18. Deep TPC: Temporal-Prior Conditioning for Time Series Forecasting

    Feb 18, 2026Filippos Bellos, NaveenJohn Premkumar, Yannis Avrithis +2LLM-Based Time Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA · Independent Scientist · Capital One, McLean, VA, USA

  19. Robust Residual Correction via Selective Deployment for Time Series Forecasting

    Dec 27, 2025Jianxiang Xie, Yuncheng Hua, Mingyue Cheng +2Robust Time Series ForecastingResidual Learning

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia · State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Intelligence, School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

  20. Naga: Vedic Encoding for Deep State Space Models

    Nov 17, 2025Melanie Schaller, Nick Janssen, Bodo RosenhahnSequence ModelingState Space Models

  21. Temporal horizons in forecasting: a performance-learnability trade-off

    Jun 4, 2025Pau Vilimelis Aceituno, Jack William Miller, Noah Marti +2Long-Term Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Institute of Neuroinformatics, ETH Zürich and University of Zürich, Winterhurerstrasse 190, Zürich 8057, Switzerland · School of Computing, National Australian University, 108 North Rd, Acton ACT 2601, Australia · Unit of Land Change Science, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf 8903, Switzerland

  22. Time-o1: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Transformed Label Alignment

    May 23, 2025Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Zhichao Chen +5Long-Term Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Xiaohongshu Inc. · State Key Lab of General AI, School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Peking University · Gaoling School of Artificial Intelligence, Renmin University of China +4

  23. Human Supervisor Workload Prediction: Lag Horizon Selection

    May 21, 2025Mark-Robin Giolando, Julie A. AdamsMultivariate Time Series ForecastingLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Collaborative Robotics and Intelligent Systems Institute at Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

  24. BEAT: Balanced Frequency Adaptive Tuning for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting

    Jan 31, 2025Zhixuan Li, Naipeng Chen, Seonghwa Choi +2Long-Term Time Series ForecastingFrequency-Domain Time Series Modeling

    College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Yonsei University, Korea

  25. Spatio-Temporal Partial Sensing Forecast for Long-term Traffic

    Aug 2, 2024Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Zelin Xu +5Long-Term Time Series ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Department of Computer & Information Science & Engineering, University of Florida · Department of Computer Science, University of Kentucky