Mixture Density Networks

For practical motion generation, it is essential to handle multimodality (multiple actions can be correct for the same observation) while maintaining low inference cost and strong generalization from limited demonstrations. We introduce an attentive mixture-density policy trained with the Energy Score that represents future visuomotor trajectories as explicit probability distributions with a single forward pass. Concretely, we output Gaussian mixture parameters for joint commands (and optionally attention points) and optimize them with the Energy Score (computed as a sum of 1D CRPS under a diagonal covariance assumption) instead of the negative log-likelihood (NLL) to avoid MDN singularities and gradient-scale instabilities. Our architecture couples explicit spatial attention with mixture-density outputs, enabling robust multimodal behavior selection under visual noise and small-data regimes. On an 8-DOF manipulator, the method generates distinct avoidance trajectories and stabilizes learning in obstacle avoidance. Moreover, in a randomized moving-object grasping task, where spatiotemporal multimodality and fast timing decisions are required, the proposed model outperforms Diffusion Policy by 15-25% under several unseen conditions, demonstrating superior generalization and real-time feasibility.

Active visual exploration of tabletop objects often requires reorienting an unknown resting object onto a different stable support face to expose occluded surfaces. To identify such placements without exhaustive physical search, we learn a probabilistic placement prior from a single-view point cloud. Stable placement prediction is inherently multimodal, and conventional 6-DoF regression introduces further ambiguity by modeling translation and in-plane yaw. We therefore propose FlipToSee, a probabilistic framework that removes this representational ambiguity by parameterizing placements as unit support normals on $S^2$ while modeling their multimodal conditional distribution via a von Mises--Fisher mixture density network. To decouple mode diversity from physical robustness, FlipToSee deterministically extracts a compact candidate set from the mixture components and applies robustness-aware reranking using an auxiliary head trained with candidate-aligned supervision. In simulation, FlipToSee achieves $98.4\%$ first-proposal success on in-distribution objects, $95.3\%$ on out-of-distribution shapes, and $90.0\%$ under zero-shot transfer to household YCB objects. We further demonstrate the learned placement prior on a physical robot by integrating it with grasp and motion planning for exploratory regrasping.

In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored walk-forward validation, the three heads form a strict gradient: switching from point to Gaussian improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent; switching from Gaussian to mixture adds a further about 2.4 percent. Switching between backbones, in contrast, changes CRPS by less than 1.5 percent on the point-head row and on the backbone-mean axis; density-head backbone spread is larger (up to 5.1 percent on the h=1 Gaussian row, driven by N-BEATS) but the head gradient (3.7 percentage points) still dominates. The Model Confidence Set on squared errors does not exclude any of the 12 variants at the 5 percent level: the head separates them only on distributional metrics (CRPS, pinball, coverage), not on squared error. The mixture head incremental value over a single Gaussian is largest in the highest-volatility regimes (13.9 percent in 1970s stagflation at h=12), confirming the mixture captures tail risk beyond what a unimodal Gaussian can express. The picture is horizon-dependent: the head dominates at short horizons, but at long horizons (h >= 6) the backbone re-takes the lead - an h-split we document against classical baselines (section 5.1). We conclude that on fat-tailed returns at short horizons, the head dominates the backbone, and the mixture distribution adds genuine value over a single Gaussian during crisis periods when risk-management decisions actually matter.

Autonomous aerial vehicles operating in shared airspace must predict the future positions of non-cooperative obstacles to plan evasive maneuvers before a collision becomes unavoidable. Unlike cooperative systems that share intent, non-cooperative obstacles such as birds, uncontrolled drones, or debris exhibit multi-modal motion that deterministic predictors cannot adequately represent. Existing methods either rely on recurrent encoders that propagate temporal information sequentially, limiting their ability to capture long-range kinematic precursors of maneuver initiation, or produce point forecasts that provide no distributional information to downstream planners. This paper presents AeroCast, a probabilistic trajectory prediction framework that combines a Transformer encoder with a Mixture Density Network output head to predict per-timestep Gaussian mixture distributions over future three-dimensional displacements. A translation-invariant consecutive displacement encoding and a calibration-oriented training objective address the input design and mode-degeneracy challenges specific to mixture-based aerial trajectory prediction. On a hybrid real-and-synthetic quadrotor corpus spanning nine motion categories, AeroCast reduces Average Displacement Error and Final Displacement Error by approximately 50% relative to the baselines over a five-second horizon, and achieves the lowest negative log-likelihood and Continuous Ranked Probability Score among all compared methods. Ablation analysis identifies velocity input and model capacity as the primary contributors to prediction quality, and positional encoding as essential for long-horizon trajectory coherence. AeroCast inference completes in 0.1ms per sample, compatible with real-time onboard deployment at 100Hz.

Accurate salary prediction is critical for bridging the information gap between employers and job seekers in modern labor markets. Existing approaches predominantly yield a single point estimate and treat job attributes such as location, occupation, and industry as independent categorical features, ignoring both the inherent uncertainty and multi-modality of real-world compensation data and the rich hierarchical and semantic-similarity relationships that govern pay norms. In this paper we propose GAT-MDN, a unified framework that addresses both limitations simultaneously. For each of the three attribute domains we construct a domain-specific graph whose edges encode (i) hierarchical parent-child containment and (ii) weighted similarity links derived from a pre-trained Sentence-Transformer. Parallel Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with edge-feature-aware attention learn rich, context-sensitive node representations from these multi-relational graphs. A priority-based hierarchical selection module then assembles a composite feature vector that gracefully handles missing or coarse attributes, and a Mixture Density Network (MDN) head maps this vector to the parameters of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), yielding a full conditional salary distribution. Extensive experiments on a real-world Dutch job-posting dataset of over 1 million records demonstrate that GAT-MDN significantly outperforms a non-graph MLP-MDN baseline in both Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).

Despite advances in depth estimation, flying points remain a persistent failure mode: near object boundaries, depth estimators often predict spurious 3D points in the empty space between foreground and background surfaces. We trace this artifact to a standard modeling choice: assigning each pixel a single depth hypothesis. At boundaries, a pixel can straddle a foreground and a background surface, so its true depth is ambiguous between the two. A model that predicts a single depth cannot keep both possibilities, so training instead pulls the prediction toward an intermediate depth that lies on neither surface. We address this with MDA, a mixture-density representation that lets the model predict multiple depth hypotheses and their associated probabilities for each pixel. Near boundaries, different hypotheses can align with different surfaces, and the decoded depth is selected from one of these hypotheses rather than placed in the empty space between them. Across different backbones, MDA substantially improves boundary reconstruction and largely removes flying-point artifacts even under severe input blur, while adding negligible runtime overhead. The same mixture-density framework naturally extends to transparent objects, where it predicts multiple depth layers at transparent pixels, and to sky regions, where a dedicated component separates the unbounded sky from finite-depth regions, producing flying-point-free skylines. Project Page: https://biansy000.github.io/mda-site/.

Active learning for continuous regression has lacked an acquisition function that targets epistemic uncertainty when the predictive distribution is multimodal: variance misses modal disagreement, and information-theoretic targets like BALD are designed for discrete outputs. We introduce a Two-Index framework that makes this separation explicit: one stochastic index selects among competing model hypotheses (epistemic source), while a second governs within-hypothesis randomness (aleatoric source). An entropy decomposition within the framework identifies the mutual information between the output and the epistemic index as a principled acquisition objective, and we prove this quantity vanishes as the model is trained on growing datasets, confirming that it captures exactly the uncertainty data can resolve. Because this mutual information is intractable for continuous outputs, we derive the Mutual Information Lower Bound (MI-LB) acquisition function, a closed-form approximation for Mixture Density Network ensembles. On benchmarks featuring multimodal systems, MI-LB matches or beats every baseline evaluated and is the only method to do so consistently -- geometric and Fisher-based baselines compete only when the input space already encodes the multimodality, and collapse otherwise.

We compare liquid neural networks with mixture density heads against diffusion policies on Push-T, RoboMimic Can, and PointMaze under a shared-backbone comparison protocol that isolates policy-head effects under matched inputs, training budgets, and evaluation settings. Across tasks, liquid policies use roughly half the parameters (4.3M vs. 8.6M), achieve 2.4x lower offline prediction error, and run 1.8 faster at inference. In sample-efficiency experiments spanning 1% to 46.42% of training data, liquid models remain consistently more robust, with especially large gains in low-data and medium-data regimes. Closed-loop results on Push-T and PointMaze are directionally consistent with offline rankings but noisier, indicating that strong offline density modeling helps deployment while not fully determining closed-loop success. Overall, liquid recurrent multimodal policies provide a compact and practical alternative to iterative denoising for imitation learning.

Probabilistic forecasts provide a principled representation of forecast uncertainty through predictive distributions. Directly propagating predictive distributions with conventional physical models requires solving distributional evolution equations, a task well-known to be computationally prohibitive for high-dimensional nonlinear systems. Consequently, multi-step predictive distributions are commonly approximated using ensembles or sampled trajectories. A novel distribution-to-distribution (D2D) neural probabilistic forecasting framework is proposed with compatible distributional encoding and decoding interfaces around a replaceable neural forecasting module. Kernel mean embeddings represent input distributions, while mixture density networks parameterise outputs, enabling recursive multi-step forecasting in distributional form. The framework is demonstrated on the Lorenz63 system. Results show that the D2D model captures nontrivial distributional evolution, produces skillful probabilistic forecasts without explicit ensemble simulation, and remains competitive with a naively initialised perfect-model benchmark. This provides proof-of-concept evidence that predictive distributions can be recursively propagated through a neural forecasting model and evaluated in terms of probabilistic forecast performance.