Multimodal Classification

A key factor in deciding whether to trust an automatic prediction is its confidence score, which should be calibrated to match the actual probability of the prediction being correct. Most confidence calibration metrics target binary or multi-class tasks, while multi-label calibration remains largely underexplored. Multi-label classification tasks, such as assigning medical codes to clinical notes or determining news topics, are usually dominated by a large number of negatives, i.e., labels that do not apply. We show that existing binning schemes to compute label-wise expected calibration error either underestimate the error, simply reflect label frequency, or suffer from many bins with very few instances. To achieve trustworthy label-wise calibration errors, we propose a new binning scheme that gives equal weight to positive and negative label assignments. Our empirical study demonstrates that in contrast to existing binning schemes, our new scheme results in meaningful estimates of calibration error in hierarchical and in extreme multi-label classification. We also show that calibrating confidence scores of large language models for multi-label predictions is an open challenge. Our detailed analysis lays the foundation for further research by providing a solid evaluation metric for measuring calibration in multi-label classification.

Event logs arise in a wide range of real-world processes, capturing not only event activities and timestamps but also multi-modal contextual information. Existing event-sequence models, including many temporal point process approaches, primarily model event activities and timestamps while overlooking heterogeneous context, such as numerical measurements, categorical attributes, textual descriptions, and metadata associated with individual events and entire traces. In this paper, we propose Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer (UMT), a unified framework for incorporating heterogeneous process context into next-event prediction. Built on a Transformer backbone, UMT introduces a universal feature encoder that maps diverse feature types into a shared representation space and handles contextual information at both the event and trace levels. UMT further develops a per-event Perceiver module that dynamically weights contextual features and adaptively integrates them into event-token representations. To accommodate the heavy-tailed and potentially multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival times, UMT represents each interval at multiple temporal scales and jointly predicts the corresponding scale-specific quantities. Experiments on 13 real-world event logs show that UMT improves both next-event activity and time prediction over existing approaches.

Most time series forecasting benchmarks remain numerical-centric and provide limited support for evaluating contextual information that shapes real-world temporal dynamics. Existing multimodal benchmarks also suffer from limited data and context coverage, fragmented evaluation settings, and overreliance on aggregate evaluation. In this paper, we propose \textbf{MUSE-Bench}, a unified benchmark for multimodal time series forecasting with heterogeneous context. It comprises fourteen datasets across eight domains and six types of context: metadata, events, holidays, news, images, and numerical covariates. We evaluate diverse forecasting paradigms, including statistical, data-specific, foundation, multimodal, and general-purpose LLM forecasting methods under shared non-overlapping forecast windows, common target observations, and consistent point and probabilistic metrics. Extensive experiments yield three main findings. First, numerical time series foundation models dominate the overall ranking, while Aurora, the evaluated multimodal foundation model, trails the leading numerical TSFMs but outperforms all evaluated data-specific models. Second, ablations show that external context improves the four evaluated context-aware models, whereas incorrect or temporally misaligned context degrades performance. Third, general-purpose LLMs perform poorly as direct forecasters, and LLM-guided refinement does not yield consistent improvements. MUSE-Bench enables systematic evaluation of how forecasting models utilize context and provides a foundation for future multimodal forecasting research.

Image-metadata prediction requires fusing heterogeneous evidence whose reliability can vary across samples and latent factors. Existing representation-level fusion methods typically choose an aggregation architecture, such as concatenation, gating, conditional modulation, or attention, without explicitly defining what the fused representation should mean under modality uncertainty. We propose RiVaT-Fuse, a reliability-calibrated variational tensor fusion framework that defines fusion as sample-wise latent-state estimation. Rather than producing a fused vector by direct aggregation, RiVaT-Fuse estimates a consensus latent state through a variational objective that balances image evidence, metadata evidence, structured cross-modal interaction, and stability. The resulting framework replaces scalar modality confidence with matrix-valued trust geometry, decomposes interaction into additive, multiplicative, and relational components, and couples the latent state with conditional robustness and structured multi-task prediction. We provide well-posedness and stability interpretations of the latent solve and instantiate the framework with efficient low-rank-plus-diagonal trust operators. On an image-level image-metadata prediction benchmark, RiVaT-Fuse achieves the strongest overall predictive rank among direct representation-level baselines while improving probability and label stability under perturbation.

Integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) provides a promising foundation for beam prediction in future vehicle-to-everything (V2X) networks. However, existing sensing-assisted beamforming methods still rely heavily on radio-frequency sensing, which may become unreliable in complex vehicular environments. Meanwhile, the growing availability of heterogeneous sensors, such as cameras and LiDAR, offers new opportunities to improve beam prediction through richer environmental perception. Motivated by this, this paper proposes a multi-modal beam prediction framework for V2X networks. Specifically, we develop BeamTransFuser, a hierarchical Transformer-based architecture that progressively fuses camera, LiDAR, radar, and GPS observations for robust beam prediction. In addition, to handle possible missing modalities in practical deployment, we introduce a generative module that reconstructs missing modality features from the available observations. Experimental results on a real-world multi-modal V2X dataset show that the proposed framework consistently outperforms representative baselines, while the generative module further improves robustness under incomplete sensing conditions.

Speech-based Alzheimer's disease (AD) detection has recently benefited from multimodal foundation-model representations that integrate complementary acoustic and linguistic information. However, conventional probability averaging over these complementary classifiers is unreliable, because their posterior probabilities exhibit mismatched scales: identical values may reflect different confidence levels across models. We propose a robust rank aggregation framework that aggregates normalized prediction ranks instead of posterior probabilities. Each subject is scored by its percentile within a fixed training-cohort distribution of out-of-fold predictions; since rank ordering is invariant to monotonic transformations, this avoids probability-scale mismatch while preserving classifier confidence ordering. A confidence-gated Random Forest further corrects residual errors using clinically interpretable linguistic features, overriding the rank prediction only when the two disagree and the RF is highly confident, without additional deep model training or explicit posterior-probability calibration. On ADReSS2020 and ADReSSo2021, the method achieves accuracies of 95.83% and 90.14%, respectively, comparing favorably with previously reported results.

Recent controllable speech generation requires training data with fine-grained annotations of speaker traits, prosody, emotion, paralinguistic cues, acoustic scenes, and context. Existing workflows often rely on manual correction, paid hosted multimodal services, or fixed processing chains, which limits large-scale data processing through annotation cost, external-service dependence, or weak cross-stage recovery. We introduce SpeechAnnotator, a locally deployable, context-aware multi-agent framework built entirely from open-source models and tools. Supporting frontend modules first obtain speaker-aware segments and final segment transcripts, while prior evidence extractors attach heterogeneous segment-level cues. Three specialist agents then collaborate through shared state: the Planning Agent converts local audio evidence, speaker history, neighboring segments, and recording-level context into field-specific contracts; the Labeling Agent performs contract-guided multimodal prediction for directly observable attributes; and the Review Agent runs a bounded review loop that checks evidence support and cross-segment consistency, triggering relabeling only for unsupported or inconsistent fields. To address the fragmentation of existing evaluation resources across isolated tasks and narrow-domain test sets, we introduce SpeechAnnotator-Bench (SA-Bench), containing 8.87 hours of human-annotated audio across nine source formats, together with SpeechAnnotator-Eval (SA-Eval), which separates Timeline-Eval for speaker-aware timeline recovery, Closed-Eval for finite-set attributes, and Open-Eval for open-ended attributes. Experiments and ablations show that SpeechAnnotator provides a locally deployable alternative to commercial audio-capable systems, while the bounded review loop improves multidimensional annotation through evidence- and context-aware field-level recovery.

Deep learning models have been increasingly applied to Time Series Forecasting (TSF) in recent years. Transformer-based and MLP-based models have both been used effectively on many real-world TSF regression benchmarks, and there is ongoing debate as to which family of methods is best. While these benchmarks have drawn much attention, it is also worth noting that many current datasets and methods assume approximate periodicity in the time series. In this work, we focus on a new TSF task without periodicity: anticipating falls during humanoid locomotion, on the basis of egocentric vision and proprioception. When the locomotion trajectories are sufficiently diverse, periodicity is violated. We contribute two new benchmark datasets (one from simulation, one from real hardware), showing that periodicity is violated and recent deep TSF methods struggle on these benchmarks. We also propose a novel deep learning architecture that exploits both endogenous and exogenous variables and a training process that rigorously enforces i.i.d sampling of training examples. Our results show statistically significant improvement over prior art in multiple experimental conditions, by 12.73% or more on the real data and 10.40% or more on the simulation data. Code and datasets will be available upon acceptance.

The Rashomon effect is a machine learning phenomenon where equally accurate models produce different predictions for the same inputs (predictive multiplicity). Existing work primarily focuses on multiplicity within individual models, but in more complex decision systems, the impact of the Rashomon effect is less well understood. In this work, we study multiplicity from the perspective of auditing incorrect ensemble predictions, where the decision to divert an instance for human review is based on a consistency criterion that combines the ensemble margin with a measure of local prediction variability for each constituent model. With mild assumptions about stability and smoothness, we show that the consistency scores of finite ensembles converge to the corresponding consistency score of the expected model from the Rashomon set as the ensemble size and the number of samples used to measure local prediction variability increase. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed criterion, we evaluate the framework with respect to transformer models applied to natural language understanding tasks and parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large language models used for tabular data classification tasks. Our experiments show that ensembling models from the Rashomon set substantially reduces the risk of incorrect predictions going unchecked compared with auditing a single model, while incurring only a moderate increase in the number of diversions. Moreover, the auditing behavior of the full Rashomon set can be closely approximated by finite ensembles of relatively modest size, with the risk approaching zero for some datasets. We further demonstrate that the proposed measure exhibits stronger agreement with established predictive multiplicity metrics than existing consistency measures, providing a more reliable way to capture multiplicity in the Rashomon set.

Reliable disaster damage assessment requires models that provide both accurate predictions and transparent explanations. However, existing multimodal approaches are limited by scarce annotated data and insufficient evaluation of reasoning quality. This study proposes a two-stage training framework that integrates Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) within a unified data construction pipeline. From a single Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) annotation workflow, two complementary datasets are derived, namely ReasoningSet, which contains validated rationales for SFT, and PreferenceSet, which comprises paired rationales for DPO-based alignment. The framework evaluates both classification performance and explanation quality using automatic metrics, model-based scoring, and human ranking. Experimental results show that SFT improves accuracy from 73.64% to 78.29% and increases Macro-F1 by 29% compared to the baseline, while explanation quality improves by approximately 25%. Subsequent DPO alignment further enhances interpretability on the PreferenceSet. Cross-model validation on InternVL-3-8B and LLaVA-1.5-7B demonstrates the robustness and generalizability of the approach. The proposed framework improves detection of underrepresented mild damage cases, reduces high-risk misclassifications, and strengthens alignment between model reasoning and human judgment. Overall, it provides a reproducible pathway to develop reliable multimodal systems that deliver auditable, actionable disaster insights for emergency management.

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) often act against multiple pathogen classes, making multi-label activity prediction a more realistic screening target than binary antimicrobial classification. The ESCAPE benchmark formalizes this setting, but leading approaches typically rely on multimodal, structure-conditioned deep models that are costly to train and tune. We show that a simple, sequence-only pipeline can match and surpass these methods by combining 330 interpretable sequence descriptors with TabPFN, a tabular foundation model that performs in-context prediction in a single forward pass without gradient-based training or hyperparameter search. On ESCAPE (82,359 peptides; five labels), a label-powerset TabPFN model achieves mAP-5 = 77.8%, improving on the previously best reported 72.1%. A probabilistic classifier chain is the first method to match or exceed the best published average precision on each of the five labels simultaneously. The gains persist under the prior state-of-the-art single-fold training protocol, indicating they are not a training-set-size artefact, and are largest for remote homologues (+11.2 points below 30% sequence identity). Ablations further show that predicted structure is unnecessary at inference and that performance is not driven by any single descriptor family: ten global physicochemical scalars recover 91% of full-feature performance. Finally, explicitly modelling label dependence yields targeted benefits for scarce activities and supports ranking which activity to assay next from partial positive evidence.

We test whether a parameterized quantum circuit (PQC) improves a hybrid quantum-classical model's performance on classical datasets, using an interface-matched classical map as the control while holding all other components fixed. Our architecture, Quantum-Embedded Attention (QEA), uses a learnable projector to compress backbone features into an $n_q$-dimensional angle vector, a shallow PQC to map those angles to one- and two-qubit Pauli expectations, and a classical attention decoder to produce class logits. We hypothesized the PQC would improve accuracy or seed-to-seed stability over a classical map with matched input/output dimensions. We test this with an interface-matched $2\times2$ factorial on Breast Cancer Wisconsin at $n_q\in\{4,8\}$, independently swapping the PQC for a classical map and the attention decoder for a linear head, across five paired seeds per cell. Three of four paired quantum-minus-classical $95\%$ confidence intervals include zero; the fourth, a $+1.63$ percentage-point contrast for the attention decoder at $n_q=4$, reverses sign at $n_q=8$ and does not survive correction across the four contrasts. The experiment thus shows no consistent PQC contribution and cannot establish equivalence. A five-dataset cross-modality grid shows comparable accuracy on AG~News, Breast Cancer Wisconsin, and BirdCLEF but a large deficit on CIFAR-10; these cells are not interface-matched and are interpreted descriptively. We report all planned canonical runs, distinguish current Pauli-readout results from legacy probability-readout experiments, and analyze bottleneck, simulation, finite-shot, and noise limitations. The results do not establish a quantum advantage; they demonstrate why controlled component attribution is necessary before crediting a hybrid model's performance to its quantum layer.

Multimodal classification typically assumes all modalities are available, yet real-world inputs are often incomplete. Imputation and dynamic fusion can mitigate such incompleteness, but existing methods operate at a coarse modality level and thus cannot retain reliable components while suppressing misleading ones within the same recovered modality, compromising prediction reliability. To address this issue, we propose GAUGE, a lightweight counterfactual gating framework for incomplete multimodal classification. GAUGE first imputes missing modalities with a frozen imputer and encodes observed and recovered inputs uniformly as fine-grained evidence units. Rather than intervening on each unit explicitly, GAUGE scores the counterfactual effect of replacing every unit with a reference representation through prediction-aware Taylor evidence scores, all obtained in a single forward-backward pass. These scores are mapped to continuous gates, which are converted into additive attention-logit biases for unit-wise evidence modulation without altering the backbone architecture. Experiments across six benchmarks demonstrate that GAUGE outperforms strong baselines across diverse incomplete-input settings. Furthermore, a Taylor remainder theoretical analysis characterizes the error of the first-order approximation relative to the exact counterfactual effect, establishing GAUGE as a principled and scalable framework for fine-grained evidence control under modality incompleteness.

Skin lesion classification plays an important role in supporting the early diagnosis of skin cancer. However, automated analysis remains challenging due to class imbalance, inter-class similarity, and intra-class variability in dermoscopic images. This paper proposes a multimodal classification framework that combines Swin Transformer-based image features with structured clinical metadata to improve diagnostic performance through integrated visual-context learning. Experiments on a publicly available dataset show that the proposed model achieves a test accuracy of 92.55% and a macro F1-score of 91.33%, with strong performance across minority classes. Temperature scaling is applied as a post-hoc calibration method, resulting in a reduction in expected calibration error and improving prediction reliability, while uncertainty estimation is incorporated to further assess the confidence of model predictions. Qualitative explainability analysis further shows that the model focuses on lesion regions during inference. Therefore, the results demonstrate that multimodal fusion, combined with calibration and interpretability analysis, provides an effective and trustworthy approach for automated skin lesion classification.

Automatic modulation classification research has largely emphasized representation accuracy, but a cognitive receiver must also decide when heterogeneous evidence justifies overriding a trusted default prediction. We study this post-inference problem through cross-fitted residual utility and a primary-preserving cognitive decision policy. A structured KAN-Fourier classifier supplies the default probability, while neural and non-neural candidates provide observable evidence. Candidate-specific residual utility is learned from train-split out-of-fold predictions, and a disjoint validation split freezes action thresholds, approved transitions, conditional routes, and a unified risk mask before held-out evaluation. On RMLA, RMLB, and HISAR, the complete system improves overall accuracy from 63.632% to 66.332%, 65.161% to 66.168%, and 77.769% to 79.867%, respectively. Controlled comparisons show that the isolated utility target does not uniformly dominate alternative out-of-fold meta-learners; the consistent gain comes from the complete evidence-and-action policy. Paired bootstrap and Holm-corrected McNemar analyses support the controlled gains. A frozen-policy stress test under carrier-frequency offset, I/Q imbalance, and synthetic Rayleigh/Rician fading yields positive gains in all 11 conditions, with every paired 95% confidence interval above zero.

Multi-modal classification leverages complementary information across diverse data sources to enhance predictive performance. However, real-world scenarios subject to operational constraints, such as sensor failures or privacy restrictions, lead to inconsistent modality availability between training and inference times. To handle missing modalities, prior studies have mainly covered bimodal data setups and focused on designing robust fusion processes. Instead, we adopt a multi-modal co-learning framework that prioritizes inter-modal collaboration rather than multi-modal fusion. Specifically, we consider that any subset of modalities may be absent, without assuming predefined missing-modality patterns, an inference scenario we refer to as missing arbitrary modalities. To address this challenge, we introduce two alternative approaches that leverage information at both feature- and decision-level. Experiments on two multi-modal classification benchmarks demonstrate significant robustness gains in various missing modality conditions. The first method shows more robust behavior under minimal missing conditions, where a single modality is absent, whereas the second performs better under extreme missing conditions, where all-but-one modalities are missing. Our code is available at https://github.com/fmenat/Co4Miss.

Computer vision models are increasingly used as measurement tools to estimate population-level quantities from large image collections, but prediction errors introduce bias and the resulting estimates lack statistical guarantees required in scientific applications. Prior work uses a Monte Carlo framework to combine model predictions with ground-truth annotations by sampling some images for humans to label and is able to provide unbiased estimates with controllable accuracy, but primarily addresses single-scalar estimation. We study the more general problem of multi-target estimation, where many quantities (e.g., class counts or proportions) must be estimated simultaneously, and adapt sampling and estimation strategies from survey sampling to this setting. Evaluations on five detection and segmentation datasets with 7-80 classes show that importance sampling excels with moderate annotation budgets or fewer targets, whereas uniform sampling with control variates is superior when estimating many targets or operating with minimal labels. Additionally, a subset-based ratio estimator remains highly competitive across all regimes. Ultimately, our framework effectively combines biased model predictions and limited human labels into rigorous scientific measurements.

Most multimodal learning methods improve how heterogeneous representations are aligned and fused, while post-fusion enhancement remains less explored. We propose Parallel Quantum Feature Augmentation (PQFA), a hybrid quantum-classical framework that applies multiple shallow variational quantum circuits to fused multimodal features. Text and image representations extracted by frozen RoBERTa and ViT encoders are processed through bidirectional cross-attention, attentive pooling, and adaptive gated fusion. The fused feature is then amplitude-encoded into parallel quantum circuits, whose measurement readouts are concatenated with the classical representation for prediction. We evaluate PQFA on MM-IMDb and N24News through controlled comparisons using the same encoders, fusion backbone, data splits, projection dimension, and augmentation output width. PQFA consistently outperforms both the fusion backbone without quantum augmentation and a width-matched MLP augmentation baseline, while using approximately 2.2K augmentation parameters compared with 24.0K for the MLP branch. Missing-modality experiments further show improved robustness when textual or visual inputs are incomplete, with particularly clear gains when the more informative textual modality is severely degraded. Controlled ablations and feature-space analyses indicate that the improvement cannot be reproduced by random feature mappings, increased classical width, or untrained quantum transformations. Quantum-state diagnostics additionally show stable predictive performance across the tested simulated noise levels and distinct branch-specific transformations of the encoded states. These results establish PQFA as an effective and parameter-efficient strategy for post-fusion augmentation in hybrid quantum-classical multimodal learning.

Few-shot multimodal classification commonly attaches a lightweight head, such as $k$-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, or a linear SVM, to a frozen pretrained encoder. Although computationally efficient, these heads can produce poorly calibrated confidence scores, limiting their reliability in calibration-sensitive applications. We evaluate TabPFN as a plug-and-play, zero-gradient classification head for frozen image, text, and audio encoders. Across 22{,}820 evaluation episodes spanning 14 datasets, 11 encoders, and three modalities, TabPFN achieves the best mean rank among nine classification heads on both negative log-likelihood (NLL) and expected calibration error (ECE). At a representative setting, it reduces NLL by 48--62% and ECE by 2.1--5.3$\times$ relative to the average of the eight baselines while matching or exceeding their average accuracy. Its accuracy advantage is conditional, concentrating at moderate-to-high shot counts and low-to-moderate feature dimensions ($k \ge 50$, $d \le 32$), and diminishing when labeled data are scarce, feature dimensions are high, or competing methods approach ceiling accuracy. In targeted backbone-adaptation experiments, replacing the trained linear head with TabPFN substantially improves calibration while preserving competitive accuracy. These results provide empirical guidance for using TabPFN as a training-free head in calibration-sensitive multimodal classification. To support transparency and reproducibility, we publicly release the source code, experiment configurations, and evaluation scripts in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/Jingxiang-Zhang/tabpfn-multimodal-embeddings.

We introduce a new context-enriched, multimodal time series forecasting benchmark, TimesX. TimesX contains a wide selection of high-quality real-world time series with diverse domains and textual contexts obtained from an automated data generation pipeline, which helps address three main issues of existing multimodal forecasting benchmarks: (1) poor generalization due to the small scale and synthetic nature of benchmark data, (2) very limited types of textual contexts in the benchmarks, and (3) an inability to mitigate data leakage in evaluation. We conduct a thorough empirical study of zero-shot multimodal forecasting approaches on TimesX. Our results suggest that many approaches that perform well on existing benchmarks may fail on TimesX. In contrast, simple ensemble methods that leverage rich textual context accompanying time-series can outperform strong baselines on TimesX.

In multimodal classification, late-fusion approaches classify concatenated modality-specific features extracted by unimodal neural networks. When modality imbalance is pronounced, various regularization techniques have been proposed to balance the learning process and overcome the inferior performance of late-fusion networks. In contrast, this work demonstrates that multimodal data can be effectively classified without any explicit modality fusion, using deep ensembles of unimodal networks. We systematically compare deep ensembles to late-fusion networks at equal parameter count and show that ensembles consistently outperform state-of-the-art late-fusion methods designed to address modality imbalance. This advantage also holds over intermediate-fusion techniques we evaluated and over hybrid methods that combine unimodal and multimodal predictions. We propose and empirically validate a method for selecting the number of models per modality in an ensemble, avoiding computationally expensive exhaustive search. Under extreme modality imbalance and small ensemble sizes, the heuristic indicates that ensembles of unimodal models trained solely on the stronger modality are preferable; as the ensemble scales up, incorporating models from the weaker modality becomes beneficial. Both predictions align with our empirical findings. To systematically explore the challenges of optimizing multimodal models, we propose a synthetic multimodal framework that allows control over both the number of modalities and their predictive strength; our findings are consistent across synthetic and real-world datasets. Finally, by fitting scaling laws to bimodal datasets, we estimate the asymptotic performance of ensembles.

Glaucoma is a progressive eye disease that can lead to irreversible vision loss if not detected at an early stage. Conventional diagnostic procedures are often time-consuming and rely heavily on expert interpretation, limiting their scalability for large-scale screening. In this study, glaucoma detection is investigated under two evaluation settings: sample-wise, where individual samples are analyzed independently, and patient-wise, where data from each patient are aggregated for final prediction. An automated multimodal framework is proposed that integrates fundus images with clinical data. Under the sample-wise setting, detection is performed using fundus images and clinical features individually, as well as through their multimodal combination. Under the patient-wise setting, predictions are obtained by aggregating multiple fundus image representations with corresponding clinical information for each patient. Deep visual features are extracted using a Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture and classified using classical machine-learning models, with a stacking-based ensemble of the three best-performing classifiers employed to optimize performance. Experiments conducted on the publicly available PAPILA dataset demonstrate strong diagnostic performance, achieving 97.47% accuracy and a 97.50% F1-score for sample-wise multimodal classification, and 98.97% accuracy and F1-score for subject-wise detection. The proposed framework is further deployed as an end-to-end web-based platform to support automated glaucoma screening and clinical decision support.

Modern time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) generate hundreds of thousands of alerts each night, making real-time decisions for follow-up observations a central challenge in time-domain astronomy. Robust early classification is crucial for making informed decisions, but is hindered by sparse light curves and degeneracies between classes. In this work, we leverage multimodality to substantially improve real-time classification and demonstrate the practicality of our approach by deploying our model on the ZTF alert stream. Building on the Online Ranked Astrophysical CLass Estimator (ORACLE), we introduce the ORACLE-2 models, which combine light curves, metadata, and images for real-time hierarchical classification. Using both real and simulated datasets, we show that incorporating additional modalities consistently improves classification performance. On observations from ZTF's Bright Transient Survey, our best-performing model, ORACLE-2 Omni, achieves a macro F1 score of 0.73 -- an improvement of up to 11% over models using light curves and metadata alone, and up to 40% over light-curve-only models, with the strongest gains realized at early times. To demonstrate applicability to the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will increase alert volume by more than an order of magnitude, we train a light curve + metadata variant on the simulated ELAsTiCC dataset. This model achieves a macro F1 score of 0.88, an improvement of up to 13% over the light-curve-only variant, matching the performance of other state-of-the-art models. Finally, we quantify the trade-offs between performance and throughput, identifying regimes where multimodal approaches offer the greatest benefit. These results show that combining multiple modalities improves early-time classification, enabling more effective triage of high-volume alert streams for current and future time-domain surveys.

Encrypted traffic classification has achieved strong performance, but its decision process remains difficult to interpret. Existing methods usually combine flow statistics, packet sequences, and byte-level representations into opaque latent features, making it unclear which type of evidence actually drives the prediction. In this paper, we propose Traffic-CBM, a structurally interpretable multimodal framework for encrypted traffic classification. Instead of directly fusing heterogeneous traffic signals into a black-box representation, Traffic-CBM organizes them into a unified hierarchical concept space. These concepts are not manually annotated semantic attributes; rather, they are scalar evidence summaries constrained by predefined traffic evidence groups. More specifically, grouped flow statistics are mapped to statistical concepts, dedicated temporal encoders learn temporal concepts from disjoint feature subspaces, and byte-level evidence is further organized into packet-level and cross-packet concepts. This design turns heterogeneous traffic evidence into an explicit concept representation and makes different levels of traffic evidence easier to analyze. We evaluate Traffic-CBM on multiple encrypted traffic benchmarks. Results show that it achieves competitive and balanced classification performance while providing a clearer structural interpretation interface than conventional end-to-end fusion models. Further analyses suggest that the learned concept space is actively used in the prediction process and provides a clearer structural explanation of multimodal traffic evidence.

Motion forecasting is essential for autonomous driving systems to enable safe decision-making and planning in complex driving scenarios. While existing predictors excel at minimizing standard displacement errors, they often overlook the adherence to lane topology of multimodal predictions, particularly for lower-probability modes. Consequently, predicted trajectories may violate physical and logical constraints, making the prediction set unreliable for safety-critical planning. In this paper, we propose LAMP (Lane-Aligned Motion Primitives), a topology-aware forecasting framework that anchors multimodal prediction to structured motion primitives aligned with lane topology. Specifically, we use a VQ-VAE to learn shape-aware motion primitives as discrete intention queries, capturing spatiotemporal patterns beyond endpoint-based intentions. We further introduce a feasibility-aware intention selector trained with a lane-topology prior for filtering unreachable intention queries, guiding the decoder to prioritize topology-consistent intentions while preserving behavioral diversity. Extensive experiments on the Argoverse 2 dataset demonstrate that LAMP achieves prediction accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art baselines while outperforming them in feasibility and diversity metrics.

Automated cattle posture-classification systems frequently report near-perfect accuracy, yet their robustness under realistic deployment conditions remains largely unknown. In particular, it is unclear whether multimodal sensor fusion improves generalisation or leads models to rely on context-specific signals that fail under distribution shift. Here, we evaluate the robustness of automated posture classification (lying versus standing) using collar accelerometers, rumen-bolus sensors, and environmental measurements collected from a pasture-based beef cattle herd across two consecutive years (2024-2025). XGBoost served as the primary model, with Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory networks evaluated as comparative baselines. Model robustness was assessed under progressively more stringent evaluation protocols, ranging from conventional random train-test splits to leave-one-animal-out validation and cross-year evaluation on an independent cohort of previously unseen animals recorded one year later. While multimodal models achieved strong within-year performance (macro-F1 0.94), the performance declined substantially under cross-year evaluation (macro-F1 0.49). Explainability analysis revealed persistent reliance on rumen-bolus activity and environmental variables even when predictive performance deteriorated. Distribution-shift diagnostics further confirmed substantial differences in feature distributions between recording years. Our findings demonstrate that commonly used evaluation protocols can substantially overestimate real-world performance and that multimodal sensor fusion may reduce, rather than improve, robustness under temporal distribution shift. More broadly, the results highlight that benchmark accuracy alone is insufficient to assess deployment readiness and underscore the need for robustness-centred evaluation in livestock-monitoring research.

Multimodal time series forecasting, which pairs numerical sequences with domain-relevant textual reports, promises to inject world knowledge into forecasting pipelines. However, we uncover a critical failure mode in existing frameworks that we term text collapse: the text branch converges to a content-independent transformation, contributing negligible discriminative signal regardless of the input description. We argue that text collapse is a consequence of a fundamental asymmetry in time series forecasting: the numerical input is strongly autocorrelated with the output, making the numerical backbone inherently dominant, while the text branch, despite carrying complementary and often critical information, is insufficiently utilized, leading to its systematic underexploitation. To address this, we propose \textbf{REST-TS} (\textbf{R}esidual-\textbf{E}xclusive \textbf{S}upervision for \textbf{T}ext in \textbf{T}ime \textbf{S}eries), which turns the asymmetry into a design principle: the numerical backbone produces its own independent numerical forecast, and the text branch is exclusively supervised to predict the structured components of the residual, the prediction gap that numbers cannot explain. Because no numerical pathway can reduce these losses, the text branch must extract genuine content from the input description. Evaluated across diverse real-world domains and backbone architectures, REST-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance and consistently demonstrates greater text-branch utilization than existing frameworks, providing strong empirical evidence that supervising the text branch on the residual compels it to extract genuine content from the input.

The energy-based method remains a comparatively underexamined approach for surface classification in mobile robotics, despite promising results in constrained environments. This study evaluated the viability of using energy-derived features as either a standalone classification modality or as supplementary input to inertial data. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted across three publicly available datasets, comparing the performance of modern deep learning architectures including recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, encoder-only transformers, and Mamba state-space models, under automated hyperparameter tuning and input sequence length optimization. The models achieved higher accuracy than previously reported values on all evaluated datasets, with the convolutional neural network yielding the highest overall performance. When relying exclusively on energy-based features, the models attained classification accuracies in the range of 85-90%, approximately 5-10% lower than those achieved when combined with inertial features (96-99%). Augmenting inertial data with energy features resulted in a consistent mean accuracy improvement of 1-2%. These findings indicate that classifiers relying solely on energy features offer sufficient accuracy for standalone deployment, while also providing a consistent gain when used in combination with other sensing modalities.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a fatal disorder that destroys memory and cognitive skills in the elderly population. Most treatments for AD are effective in the early stage, leading to an increasing demand for early AD diagnosis. AD diagnosis increasingly relies on multimodal data such as clinical assessments, structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging. However, MRI and PET acquisition remain costly and not universally accessible, making full-modality inference impractical in real-world clinical workflows. We propose ProMUSE, a Progressive Multi-modal Uncertainty Guided Staged Evidential Network that adaptively determines when additional modalities are necessary, helping reduce the overall cost of data acquisition while maintaining accuracy. ProMUSE first performs evidential classification using low-cost clinical data and quantifies uncertainty via a Dirichlet-based subjective logic model. When uncertainty exceeds a learned threshold, ProMUSE progressively incorporates MRI or PET features, fusing modality-wise belief and uncertainty through Dempster-Shafer theory to obtain a calibrated multimodal prediction. This staged acquisition strategy enables accurate diagnosis while minimizing reliance on expensive imaging. Experiments on ADNI, AIBL, and OASIS across CN-AD, CN-MCI, and MCI-AD tasks demonstrate that ProMUSE achieves competitive or superior accuracy compared to full-modality baselines while reducing MRI/PET usage by 50-90%, yielding substantial cost savings. These results highlight ProMUSE as a practical, uncertainty-aware, and resource-efficient solution for real-world AD screening.

Wearable and mobile sensing technologies enable continuous monitoring of human behavior and health in real-world settings. However, predictive modeling in longitudinal multimodal data remains challenging, particularly when targeting complex or clinically derived outcomes. In this work, we present a longitudinal multimodal study of 66 older adults conducted in real-world conditions and combining wearable sensing, behavioral monitoring, and clinical assessments. This setting provides a rare opportunity to study an underrepresented population in long-term, into-the-wild conditions. Building on this dataset, we investigate how the alignment between sensed signals and target variables affects predictive performance across health-related tasks. We design a unified evaluation framework spanning tasks with increasing levels of observability, including Activity Levels prediction, Sleep Duration estimation, and Sleep Apnea Severity classification. Our results reveal a clear gradient of predictability: highly observable behavioral targets achieve robust performance (macro-F1 65%), while more abstract outcomes remain challenging despite consistent improvements over baseline models. Moreover, through explainability analysis, we show that historical features consistently emerge as the most informative predictors, highlighting the central role of longitudinal information.

Multimodal models in oncology can produce accurate predictions, but accurate prediction does not reveal whether the model has learned biology that is shared across modalities, biology confined to one modality, or spurious correlations that reflect confounders rather than genuine biology. We introduce DECAT, a model-agnostic post-hoc evaluation framework that classifies multimodal representations into four diagnostic scenarios for a given task and modality, using five null-referenced metrics and a rule-based decision procedure. The framework operates on learned representations, requires no knowledge of which specific confounder is present, and returns indeterminate when the evidence is insufficient. We validate DECAT on synthetic data across four multimodal model classes (over 2,500 trained representations) and on real data from 8,979 TCGA patients, evaluating both multimodal embeddings and five pretrained pathology foundation models. Entangled models (e.g., CLIP) achieve near-perfect shared biology detection but falsely claim shared biology in the majority of cases where it is absent on real foundation model embeddings. This false claim rate increases with confound strength so that larger cohorts and stronger representations produce more confident but still incorrect diagnoses. Applied to both multimodal TCGA embeddings and five pathology foundation models without paired RNA, DECAT detects confounding invisible to AUROC without requiring the confounder labels, as confirmed by post-hoc stratification.

Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly attractive for multimodal quality assessment, but their default reliance on autoregressive text generation and dynamic visual processing is poorly matched to scalar regression under strict latency budgets. We present a bounded-compute adaptation of SmolVLM2-256M-Video-Instruct for product-rating prediction in the LoViF 2026 Efficient VLM challenge. Motivated by recent multimodal engagement-prediction results showing that feature-based regression can outperform token-based score generation, we replace the language-modeling head with a lightweight two-layer MLP fed by pooled decoder states, and we enforce deterministic inputs through fixed 384x384 images and truncated metadata. Across controlled ablations, static global image processing slightly outperforms dynamic tiling, and scaling from 100K to 16M training examples substantially improves validation correlation. Under the official held-out evaluation, our 228M-parameter model achieves 0.39 PLCC and 0.40 CES, providing a strong and reproducible baseline for resource-constrained multimodal regression.

We present a multi-modal classification framework that fuses satellite and street-level imagery through a Perceiver IO architecture operating on spatial patch tokens from a shared DINOv2 backbone. The design naturally handles a variable number of street-level views per building without padding or fixed-size pooling, and jointly predicts multi-label roof element and roof material classes. We construct a large-scale dataset of 32,135 buildings (61,672 segments) spanning ten countries, pairing satellite images with up to eight street-level views per segment and evaluating four masking strategies for isolating the target building. We propose an RGB-M masking strategy that appends the building footprint mask as a fourth input channel, providing a soft spatial prior that outperforms hard cropping across both modalities. The Perceiver IO fusion model improves over all other fusion strategies and yields substantial per-class gains for attributes visible from street level (e.g., +11.3 AP for slate, +1.3 AP for dormers), though the satellite-only baseline retains a slight advantage in macro-averaged mAP for classes that are predominantly visible from above. These results establish a scalable, flexible architecture for multi-modal building inspection that can accommodate heterogeneous inputs and multiple output tasks.

Multimodal motion forecasting is inherently under-supervised: each training scene provides only one realized future, yet multiple plausible futures exist. This sparse supervision often leads to mode collapse (redundant hypotheses and insufficient mode coverage) and unreliable confidence ranking when predicting a small set of trajectories. We propose Mode-as-Sequence, a unified decoding framework that translates an unordered mode set into an ordered mode sequence and explicitly models mode-to-mode dependency. Under this framework, we develop two complementary instantiations. ModeSeq performs recurrent mode decoding, where each mode is generated conditioned on the previously generated modes, encouraging diverse, non-redundant hypotheses with calibrated confidence ordering. To remove the mode-by-mode autoregressive bottleneck, we further propose Parallel ModeSeq, which preserves the same causal dependency using masked mode-to-mode self-attention while decoding all modes in a single forward pass, enabling efficient large-$K$ inference and scalable joint-scene prediction. To learn representative modes and calibrated confidence under sparse labels, we introduce Early-Match-Take-All (EMTA) and its joint-scene extension MA-EMTA, together with a lightweight ranking regularizer that reduces confidence inversions. Extensive experiments on large-scale benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both ranking-oriented metrics and best-of-K accuracy across datasets, horizons, and object types. In the Waymo Open Dataset challenges, ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2024 LiDAR-free motion prediction track, and Parallel ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2025 Interaction Prediction Challenge, validating the effectiveness of Mode-as-Sequence for both accuracy and efficiency.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is a long-standing research problem that has gained increasing attention in recent years with the rapid growth of large-scale temporal data. Despite substantial progress enabled by deep learning, designing TSC models that are both accurate and interpretable remains a challenging task. Many existing approaches adopt a direct feature-to-label classification paradigm, by collapsing high-dimensional temporal embeddings into class logits via a single linear projection (often after global pooling), the paradigm conflates feature extraction and decision logic into an inseparable mapping. To address these limitations, we propose PDFTime, a prototype-guided framework that reformulates time series classification as a multi-stage decision process. Instead of direct feature-to-label mapping, PDFTime leverages learned prototypes to approximate class-conditional feature distributions in the latent space, enabling progressive discrimination through classification sub-tasks of varying granularity. To our knowledge, PDFTime is the first framework to reformulate time series classification as a decoupled, multi-stage similarity-based reasoning process, breaking the long-standing paradigm of direct, black-box feature-to-label mapping. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that PDFTime achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across UEA and UCR benchmarks. Notably, it secures the top-$1$ accuracy on 80 out of 128 datasets in the UCR archive, significantly outperforming recent strong baselines in both consistency and generalization.

We introduce CoMET, \textit{\textbf{C}omposing \textbf{M}odality \textbf{E}ncoders with \textbf{T}abular foundation models}, a simple yet highly competitive method for multimodal classification: pass each modality through a frozen pre-trained backbone, compress the resulting embeddings with PCA, and concatenate as input into a Tabular Foundation Model (TFM) for prediction. We show that PCA alone suffices to act as an adaptor yielding strong, robust performance across modalities. When the \texttt{CLS} tokens of the foundation model align poorly with downstream tasks, we propose \textbf{PALPooling}, a lightweight adaptive token pooler that consistently improves representation quality. By composing strong frozen representation learning backbones with TFMs, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse multimodal benchmarks without any training. On hierarchical tasks with large fine-grained class spaces, our approach enables fast and scalable classification, handling datasets with over 500,000 samples and 2,000 classes without any fine-tuning. Overall, our results show that the composition of foundation models is a simple, yet powerful, out-of-the-box solution for multimodal learning, challenging the necessity of complex, end-to-end training pipelines for new problems.

Standard cells form the building blocks of digital circuits, so their delay and power critically influence chip-level performance; yet characterization still relies on slow simulation sweeps, and many fast predictors ignore layout geometry, missing coupling and layout-dependent effects. The challenge is to jointly represent layout geometry and netlist topology so models capture fine-grained spatial details together with structural connectivity for accurate performance prediction. We introduce FusionCell, a dual-modality predictor that treats routed layout geometry and netlist topology as inputs and fuses them explicitly in a unified model. A DeiT encoder processes three-layer routed layouts, while a graph transformer models heterogeneous device/net graphs. The modalities are integrated through a topology-guided mechanism, where the netlist acts as a structural "map" to actively query relevant physical regions in the layout for joint geometric and topological reasoning. We build a 7nm dataset based on the ASAP7 PDK with over 19.5k cells spanning 149 types using automatic tools, targeting six metrics: signal rise/fall delay, transition, and power. Experimental results demonstrate that FusionCell reduces regression error, with an average MAPE of 0.92 percent, and improves Spearman/Kendall ranking over baselines, while accelerating the characterization process by orders of magnitude compared to circuit simulation.

Accurately forecasting human trajectories from an egocentric perspective plays a central role in applications such as humanoid robotics, wearable sensing systems, and assistive navigation. However, progress in this direction remains limited due to the scarcity of egocentric trajectory datasets collected in real-world environments. Addressing this need, we introduce EgoTraj, an egocentric multimodal open dataset recorded using Meta Quest Pro (MQPro). EgoTraj contains 75 sequences of human navigation collected from multiple MQPro wearers in real-world urban environments. Each recording provides synchronized RGB video along with ground-truth data, including continuous time-synchronized 6-degree-of-freedom head poses, per-frame 3D eye gaze vectors, scene annotations. To the best of our knowledge, EgoTraj differs from typical egocentric trajectory datasets by capturing long-horizon, self-directed navigation across diverse urban routes with broad participant diversity. To demonstrate the potential of the dataset, we benchmark several state-of-the-art methods for egocentric trajectory prediction and conduct ablation studies to analyze the contributions of gaze, scene, and motion cues. The results highlight the utility of EgoTraj for AR-based perception, navigation, and assistive systems. The EgoTraj dataset, code, and EgoViz Dashboard are publicly available at https://github.com/yehiahmad/EgoTraj.

Industrial multi-label document understanding pipelines score candidate labels and threshold or rank them to form a label set per document. This early selection step directly affects the accuracy of downstream information extraction from the document, as well as the associated verification effort. In practice, OCR noise, label imbalance, instance-dependent label cardinality, and asymmetric error costs make global score thresholds brittle and hard to maintain as document formats evolve. We present RAPT, a deployment-oriented retrieval-augmented score thresholding wrapper, applied post-hoc to improve label set selection without retraining the underlying classifier. RAPT is a model-agnostic wrapper: any predictor that provides document representations for similarity search and per label confidence scores can be used, including metric learning encoders and fine-tuned transformer classifiers. For each query document, given a classifier's score vector, RAPT retrieves similar document thresholding situations (cases) and adapts the query's label set selection threshold using their outcomes. The adaptation selects the final label set by locally aggregating neighbour solutions (e.g. average label count, cutoff calibration). Evaluation compared multi-label classifiers (metric learners and transformers) combined with RAPT against global and label-wise thresholding baselines, and against few-shot LLMs. Across an industrial dataset and six public benchmarks, RAPT consistently outperformed global and label-wise static thresholding baselines. In the industrial setting, RAPT achieved its best predictive performance with metric learners, reaching 0.87 Macro-F1, while fine-tuned transformer variants on average achieved 0.775 Macro-F1, outperforming fewshot LLM baselines (K = 5) by 2x and requiring at least 115x less inference time and 13.5x less GPU memory.

In this paper, we propose the first VL$\underline{\textbf{M}}$ $\underline{\textbf{a}}$gentic $\underline{\textbf{r}}$easoning framework for few-$\underline{\textbf{s}}$hot multimodal $\underline{\textbf{T}}$ime $\underline{\textbf{S}}$eries $\underline{\textbf{C}}$lassification ($\textbf{MarsTSC}$), which introduces a self-evolving knowledge bank as a dynamic context iteratively refined via reflective agentic reasoning. The framework comprises three collaborative roles: i) Generator conducts reliable classification via reasoning; ii) Reflector diagnoses the root causes of reasoning errors to yield discriminative insights targeting the temporal features overlooked by Generator; iii) Modifier applies verified updates to the knowledge bank to prevent context collapse. We further introduce a test-time update strategy to enable cautious, continuous knowledge bank refinement to mitigate few-shot bias and distribution shift. Extensive experiments across 12 mainstream time series benchmarks demonstrate that $\textbf{MarsTSC}$ delivers substantial and consistent performance gains across 6 VLM backbones, outperforming both classical and foundation model-based time series baselines under few-shot conditions, while producing interpretable rationales that ground each classification decision in human-readable feature evidence.

Modern astronomical observatories generate a massive volume of multimodal data, creating a critical bottleneck for expert human review. While multimodal large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in interpreting complex visual and textual inputs, their ability to perform specialized scientific classification while providing interpretable reasoning remains understudied. We introduce AstroAlertBench, a comprehensive multimodal benchmark designed to evaluate LLM performance in astronomical event review along a three-stage logical chain: metadata grounding, scientific reasoning, and hierarchical classification over five categories. We use a pilot sample of 1,500 real-world alerts from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a wide-field survey that scans the northern sky to detect transient astronomical events. On this dataset, we benchmark 13 frontier closed-source and open-weight LLMs that support visual input. Our results reveal that high accuracy does not always align with model ``honesty,'' defined as the ability to self-evaluate its reasoning, which affects its reliability as a real-world assistant. We further initialize a human-in-the-loop evaluation protocol as a precursor to future community-scale participation. Together, AstroAlertBench provides a framework for developing calibrated and interpretable astronomical assistants.

Time-series classification (TSC) has advanced significantly with deep learning, yet most models rely solely on raw numerical inputs, overlooking alternative representations. While texture-based encodings such as Gramian Angular Fields (GAF) and Recurrence Plots (RP) convert time series into 2D images, they often require heavy preprocessing and yield less intuitive representations. In contrast, chart-based visualizations offer more interpretable alternatives and show promise in specific domains; however, their effectiveness remains underexplored, with limited systematic evaluation across chart types, visual encoding choices, and datasets. In this work, we introduce VTBench, a systematic and extensible framework that re-examines TSC through multimodal fusion of raw sequences and chart-based visualizations. VTBench generates lightweight, human-interpretable plots -- line, area, bar, and scatter, providing complementary views of the same signal. We develop a modular architecture supporting multiple fusion strategies, including single-chart visual-numerical fusion, multi-chart visual fusion, and full multimodal fusion with raw inputs. Through experiments across 31 UCR datasets, we show that: (1) chart-only models are competitive in selected settings, particularly on smaller datasets; (2) combining multiple chart types can improve accuracy by capturing complementary visual cues; and (3) multimodal models improve or maintain performance when visual features provide non-redundant information, but may degrade accuracy when they introduce redundancy. We further distill practical guidelines for selecting chart types, fusion strategies, and configurations. VTBench establishes a unified foundation for interpretable and effective multimodal time-series classification.

We introduce CoCo-LoRA, a multimodal, uncertainty-aware parameter-efficient fine-tuning method for text prediction tasks accompanied by audio context. Existing PEFT approaches such as LoRA are efficient but typically deterministic, while recent Bayesian low-rank adapters model uncertainty in a lightweight way yet remain largely unimodal and condition uncertainty primarily on internal text features. This leaves them poorly equipped to reflect uncertainty driven by external acoustic factors such as background noise, channel variability, or speaking style, which can materially affect reliability in speech-centered applications. CoCo-LoRA addresses this gap by conditioning a contextual variational posterior in the low-rank space on both local text-derived adapter features and an audio-derived context signal. A pooled audio embedding is projected once into a shared context space and then adapted through lightweight layer-wise heads, enabling global-to-local, depth-specific modulation of the adapter uncertainty and update without high-dimensional multimodal fusion. Stochasticity is confined to a compact latent component in the rank space, preserving PEFT scalability while producing audio-sensitive, heteroscedastic uncertainty. Based on our evaluations across diverse tasks and backbone combinations, CoCo-LoRA consistently matches or outperforms text-only PEFT and conventional feature-fusion transfer baselines, particularly on high-coverage labels where reliable adaptation is critical. The results indicate that using audio as a contextual uncertainty signal, rather than as a fused feature stream, provides a robust and parameter-efficient alternative for multimodal low-resource prediction.

The existence of multiple, equally accurate models for a given predictive task leads to predictive multiplicity, where a Rashomon set of models achieve similar accuracy but diverge in their individual predictions. This inconsistency undermines trust in high-stakes applications where we want consistent predictions. We propose three approaches to reduce inconsistency among predictions for the members of the Rashomon set. The first approach is outlier correction. An outlier has a label that none of the good models are capable of predicting correctly. Outliers can cause the Rashomon set to have high variance predictions in a local area, so fixing them can lower variance. Our second approach is local patching. In a local region around a test point, models may disagree with each other because some of them are biased. We can detect and fix such biases using a validation set, which also reduces multiplicity. Our third approach is pairwise reconciliation, where we find pairs of models that disagree on a region around the test point. We modify predictions that disagree, making them less biased. These three approaches can be used together or separately, and they each have distinct advantages. The reconciled predictions can then be distilled into a single interpretable model for real-world deployment. In experiments across multiple datasets, our methods reduce disagreement metrics while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Multimodal prediction models based on imaging and clinical data are increasingly used for clinical decision support, yet their interpretability remains limited. We present multimodal Deep Transformation Models (DTMs) combining statistical approaches and neural networks to achieve strong predictive performance while preserving interpretability for tabular data. A key contribution of this work is the adaption of the xAI methods Grad-CAM and Occlusion to DTMs relying on 3D CNNs, enabling interpretation of the image branch through the generation of explanation maps. We developed DTMs to predict functional independence three months after stroke using diffusion-weighted imaging and clinical data from 407 patients. In a ten-fold cross-validation, the models achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUC 0.81 [0.75, 0.87]) while maintaining interpretability for tabular features, with functional independence before stroke and stroke severity on admission emerging as the strongest predictors. Explanation maps from both xAI methods highlighted consistent regions, including frontal lobe areas which are known to be associated with age, a strong predictor of functional outcome. Notably, these regions disappeared once age was included as an explicit tabular predictor. Similarity analyses of explanation maps revealed distinct spatial patterns, providing meaningful insights into stroke pathophysiology, systematic error analysis and hypothesis generation.