Overview

Opinion dynamics asks how individual beliefs change through social influence, and how those changes shape outcomes such as consensus, polarization, misinformation, and collective decisions. Classical approaches include DeGroot and Friedkin–Johnsen models, bounded-confidence and voter models, and statistical-physics analyses of networked agents. Researchers also study real online discussions and use agent-based or large-language-model simulations to test how network structure, memory, personality, and persuasion affect belief change. A central challenge is distinguishing genuine, accurate agreement from conformity or shared bias, while ensuring simulations reproduce human behavior across different groups and settings.

Latest papers

79 papers5 papers in the last four weeks, down 67% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Apr 13, 2026

Collective Opinion Dynamics in Structured LLM Populations

Large Language Models are increasingly deployed as interacting agents in settings such as online platforms, recommendation systems, and multi-agent applications. Understanding the collective behaviors that emerge from their interactions is therefore increasingly crucial, especially as these behaviors may shape public opinion and contribute to polarization. In this work, we investigate how network structure and group composition shape the evolution of opinions in populations of LLM agents engaged in multi-round debates. We generate networks with controlled levels of homophily and varying group sizes, and perform ten independent runs per configuration. The results show that LLM agents exhibit patterns that are highly sensitive to network structure, relative group sizes, and to the model itself. We highlight that even within LLM populations, low homophily facilitates convergence by increasing opportunities for cross-group interaction, whereas higher homophily limits cross-group exposure and can preserve distinct opinion states, consistent with previous research. We further show that the choice of LLM substantially affects the resulting dynamics, with different models exhibiting different patterns of opinion updating under comparable network conditions. At the individual level, providing agents with information about their local neighborhood further modulates opinion transitions, revealing substantial differences between models in their sensitivity to local social context. Overall, our findings show that the collective dynamics of LLM populations arise from interactions among model-specific behavior, network structure, population composition, and local social information.
Apr 10, 2026

Decentralized Opinion-Integrated Decision making at Unsignalized Intersections via Signed Networks

In this letter, we consider the problem of decentralized decision making among connected autonomous vehicles at unsignalized intersections, where existing centralized approaches do not scale gracefully under mixed maneuver intentions and coordinator failure. We propose a closed-loop opinion-dynamic decision model for intersection coordination, where vehicles exchange intent through dual signed networks: a conflict topology based communication network and a commitment-driven belief network that enable cooperation without a centralized coordinator. Continuous opinion states modulate velocity optimizer weights prior to commitment; a closed-form predictive feasibility gate then freezes each vehicle's decision into a GO or YIELD commitment, which propagates back through the belief network to pre-condition neighbor behavior ahead of physical conflicts. Crossing order emerges from geometric feasibility and arrival priority without the use of joint optimization or a solver. The approach is validated across three scenarios spanning fully competitive, merge, and mixed conflict topologies. The results demonstrate collision-free coordination and lower last-vehicle exit times compared to first come first served (FCFS) in all conflict non-trivial configurations.
Apr 6, 2026

Talk2AI: A Longitudinal Dataset of Human--AI Persuasive Conversations

Talk2AI is a large-scale longitudinal dataset of 3,080 conversations (totaling 30,800 turns) between human participants and Large Language Models (LLMs), designed to support research on persuasion, opinion change, and human-AI interaction. The corpus was collected from 770 profiled Italian adults across four weekly sessions in Spring 2025, using a within-subject design in which each participant conversed with a single model (GPT-4o, Claude Sonnet 3.7, DeepSeek-chat V3, or Mistral Large) on three socially relevant topics: climate change, math anxiety, and health misinformation. Each conversation is linked to rich contextual data, including sociodemographic characteristics and psychometric profiles. After each session, participants reported on opinion change, conviction stability, perceived humanness of the AI, and behavioral intentions, enabling fine-grained longitudinal analysis of how AI-mediated dialogue shapes beliefs and attitudes over time.
Apr 2, 2026

Free Information Disrupts Even Bayesian Crowds

A core tenet underpinning the conception of contemporary information networks, such as social media platforms, is that users should not be constrained in the amount of information they can freely and willingly exchange with one another about a given topic. By means of a computational agent-based model, we show how even in groups of truth-seeking and cooperative agents with perfect information-processing abilities, unconstrained information exchange may lead to detrimental effects on the correctness of the group's beliefs. If unconstrained information exchange can be detrimental even among such idealized agents, it is prudent to assume it can also be so in practice. We therefore argue that constraints on information flow should be carefully considered in the design of communication networks with substantial societal impact, such as social media platforms.
Mar 28, 2026

Persona-Based Simulation of Human Opinion at Population Scale

What does it mean to model a person, not merely to predict isolated responses, preferences, or behaviors, but to simulate how an individual interprets events, forms opinions, makes judgments, and acts consistently across contexts? This question matters because social science requires not only observing and predicting human outcomes, but also simulating interventions and their consequences. Although large language models (LLMs) can generate human-like answers, most existing approaches remain predictive, relying on demographic correlations rather than representations of individuals themselves. We introduce SPIRIT (Semi-structured Persona Inference and Reasoning for Individualized Trajectories), a framework designed explicitly for simulation rather than prediction. SPIRIT infers psychologically grounded, semi-structured personas from public social media posts, integrating structured attributes (e.g., personality traits and world beliefs) with unstructured narrative text reflecting values and lived experience. These personas prompt LLM-based agents to act as specific individuals when answering survey questions or responding to events. Using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, a nationally representative probability sample of U.S. adults, we show that SPIRIT-conditioned simulations recover self-reported responses more faithfully than demographic persona and reproduce human-like heterogeneity in response patterns. We further demonstrate that persona banks can function as virtual respondent panels for studying both stable attitudes and time-sensitive public opinion.
Mar 24, 2026

Beyond Preset Identities: Selective Stance Accommodation and Interaction Reorganisation in Generative Agent Societies

Generative agent societies simulate people with assigned roles, preferences and relationships. As agents exchange arguments and choose partners, they can revise their positions and reorganise discussion. Understanding these changes requires examining what they accept and how they continue to interact. Stance-change scores and communication totals describe the extent of change. However, the same stance movement can preserve or reverse an assigned preference, and frequent communication can support either agreement or continuing disagreement. We therefore examine the content of changed positions and the exchanges that strengthen particular partnerships. Using Computational Multi-Agent Society Experiments (CMASE), we combine stance measures, source evaluations and temporal networks with individual answers and messages. Study 1 compares seven conditions across ten GPT-4o runs per condition, with a separate interview collection covering four models. Study 2 follows one 75-step GPT-4o café simulation. Environmental rational persuasion yields the largest mean stance departure (1.30±0.081.30\pm0.08 on a 7-point scale), whereas economic emotional persuasion yields the highest low-trust stance-shift rate (17.3%±11.2%17.3\%\pm11.2\%, with standard deviations across runs). In the separate interviews, eight environmental agents shift from 7 to 6, acknowledge economic concerns and rate the source 3. Their partial acceptance preserves the assigned environmental preference. In the café, a pair with zero earlier exchanges becomes the most frequent final-phase partnership, with 25 messages. Its members develop coordination proposals while disputing their implementation. These results show that partial acceptance can coexist with low source trust, and sustained coordination with continuing disagreement.
Mar 21, 2026

The Hidden Puppet Master: Predicting Human Belief Change in Manipulative LLM Dialogues

As users increasingly turn to LLMs for practical and personal advice, they become vulnerable to subtle steering toward hidden incentives misaligned with their own interests. While existing NLP research has benchmarked manipulation detection, these efforts often rely on simulated debates and remain fundamentally decoupled from actual human belief shifts in real-world scenarios. We introduce PUPPET, a theoretical taxonomy and resource that bridges this gap by focusing on the moral direction of hidden incentives in everyday, advice-giving contexts. We provide an evaluation dataset of N=1,035 human-LLM interactions, where we measure users' belief shifts. Our analysis reveals a critical disconnect in current safety paradigms: while models can be trained to detect manipulative strategies, they do not correlate with the magnitude of resulting belief change. As such, we define the task of human belief shift prediction and show that while state-of-the-art LLMs achieve moderate correlation (r=0.3-0.5), they exhibit systematic directional biases, with certain models over or under-predicting the magnitude of human belief change. This work establishes a theoretically grounded and behaviorally validated foundation for AI social safety efforts by studying incentive-driven manipulation in LLMs during everyday, practical user queries.
Mar 21, 2026

Subjective-Graph LLM Agents for Simulating Uncertainty in Classroom Social Perception

Social actors do not observe a common social world: each individual forms judgments from a partial and potentially distorted view of the surrounding network. We study whether graph-local evidence and credibility-weighted communication can generate persistent distortions in perceived academic standing, even when agents repeatedly receive objective performance signals. We introduce a data-constrained multi-agent framework in which LLM agents operate through individualized subjective graphs that determine peer visibility, evidence access, and interaction opportunities. Agents exchange uncertainty-annotated assessments, evaluate message credibility, and maintain explicit Gaussian belief states updated through Bayesian fusion. We evaluate the framework on 12 middle-school classrooms comprising 482 students, using questionnaire-derived social information and six consecutive examinations. On the Social-Observed subset (n=419), collective ranking error increases from 0.066 \pm 0.008 to 0.124 \pm 0.009 across six epochs despite repeated exam-based anchoring. Ablations associate individualized visibility and LLM-based trust gating with more stable long-horizon behavior, while constrained retrieval primarily safeguards against global-information leakage. Compared with evaluated DeGroot configurations, the proposed framework achieves lower final ranking error; those DeGroot configurations exhibit near-zero terminal opinion diversity. These findings establish subjective-graph LLM agents as a mechanism-oriented framework for data-constrained simulated social perception. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Rashomonomon-0126.
Mar 11, 2026

Reactive Writers: How Co-Writing with AI Changes How We Engage with Ideas

Emerging experimental evidence shows that writing with AI assistance can change both the views people express in writing and the opinions they hold afterwards. Yet, we lack substantive understanding of procedural and behavioral changes in co-writing with AI that underlie the observed opinion-shaping power of AI writing tools. We conducted a mixed-methods study, combining retrospective interviews with 19 participants about their AI co-writing experience with a quantitative analysis tracing engagement with ideas and opinions in 1{,}291 AI co-writing sessions. Our analysis shows that engaging with the AI's suggestions -- reading them and deciding whether to accept them -- becomes a central activity in the writing process, taking away from more traditional processes of ideation and language generation. As writers often do not complete their own ideation before engaging with suggestions, the suggested ideas and opinions seeded directions that writers then elaborated on. At the same time, writers did not notice the AI's influence and felt in full control of their writing, as they -- in principle -- could always edit the final text. We term this shift Reactive Writing: an evaluation-first, suggestion-led writing practice that departs substantially from conventional composing in the presence of AI assistance and is highly vulnerable to AI-induced biases and opinion shifts.
Mar 9, 2026

Examining the Role of YouTube Production and Consumption Dynamics on the Formation of Extreme Ideologies

The relationship between content production and consumption on algorithm-driven platforms like YouTube plays a critical role in shaping ideological behaviors. While prior work has largely focused on user behavior and algorithmic recommendations, the interplay between what is produced and what gets consumed, and its role in ideological shifts remains understudied. In this paper, we present a longitudinal, mixed-methods analysis combining one year of YouTube watch history with two waves of ideological surveys from 1,100 U.S. participants. We identify users who exhibited significant shifts toward more extreme ideologies and compare their content consumption and the production patterns of YouTube channels they engaged with to ideologically stable users. Our findings show that users who became more extreme consumed have different consumption habits from those who do not. This gets amplified by the fact that channels favored by users with extreme ideologies also have a higher affinity to produce content with a higher anger, grievance and other such markers. Lastly, using time series analysis, we examine whether content producers are the primary drivers of consumption behavior or merely responding to user demand.
Mar 5, 2026

The effect of a toroidal opinion space on opinion bi-polarisation

Many models of opinion dynamics include measures of distance between opinions. Such models are susceptible to boundary effects where the choice of the topology of the opinion space may influence the dynamics. In this paper we study an opinion dynamics model following the seminal model by Axelrod, with the goal of understanding the effect of a toroidal opinion space. To do this we systematically compare two versions of the model: one with toroidal opinion space and one with cubic opinion space. In their most basic form the two versions of our model result in similar dynamics (consensus is attained eventually). However, as we include bounded confidence and eventually per agent weighting of opinion elements the dynamics become quite contrasting. The toroidal opinion space consistently allows for a greater number of groups in steady state than the cubic opinion space model. Furthermore, the outcome of the dynamics in the toroidal opinion space model are more sensitive to the inclusion of extensions than in the cubic opinion space model.
Mar 3, 2026

Credibility Governance: A Social Mechanism for Collective Self-Correction under Weak Truth Signals

Online platforms increasingly rely on opinion aggregation to allocate real-world attention and resources, yet common signals such as engagement votes or capital-weighted commitments are easy to amplify and often track visibility rather than reliability. This makes collective judgments brittle under weak truth signals, noisy or delayed feedback, early popularity surges, and strategic manipulation. We propose Credibility Governance (CG), a mechanism that reallocates influence by learning which agents and viewpoints consistently track evolving public evidence. CG maintains dynamic credibility scores for both agents and opinions, updates opinion influence via credibility-weighted endorsements, and updates agent credibility based on the long-run performance of the opinions they support, rewarding early and persistent alignment with emerging evidence while filtering short-lived noise. We evaluate CG in POLIS, a socio-physical simulation environment that models coupled belief dynamics and downstream feedback under uncertainty. Across settings with initial majority misalignment, observation noise and contamination, and misinformation shocks, CG outperforms vote-based, stake-weighted, and no-governance baselines, yielding faster recovery to the true state, reduced lock-in and path dependence, and improved robustness under adversarial pressure. Our implementation and experimental scripts are publicly available at https://github.com/Wanying-He/Credibility_Governance.
Feb 23, 2026

PACIFIER: Pacing Opinion Depolarization via a Unified Graph Learning Framework

Online social networks often form opposing echo chambers that reinforce opinion polarization. Under the Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) model, ModerateInternal (MI) and ModerateExpressed (ME) reduce polarization by neutralizing selected users' internal or expressed opinions, but existing solutions are largely model-specific and learning-based depolarization remains underexplored. We study FJ-based moderation as feedback-free autoregressive sequential planning and propose PACIFIER, a unified graph-learning framework that constructs ordered intervention sequences from the initial graph-opinion instance without using recomputed post-intervention expressed opinions as intermediate feedback. PACIFIER combines history-aware node representations with Greedy and RL variants for immediate and long-horizon action scoring, and supports MI, ME, continuous opinions, cost-aware moderation, and node removal. We evaluate intervention trajectories by Accumulated Normalized Polarization (ANP). Trained only on synthetic graphs with fewer than 50 nodes, PACIFIER transfers to 15 real-world Twitter networks with up to 155,599 nodes. It improves over the strongest non-PACIFIER baseline by up to 35.3%, while PACIFIER-RL improves over PACIFIER-Greedy by up to 37.69%. Compared with oracle-style Greedy, PACIFIER retains 98.94% and 97.39% near-oracle quality on MI and ME, respectively, and is about 600x faster at the 450-node range. The source code is available at https://github.com/RickyYY-SZU/PACIFIER
Feb 23, 2026

Graph-theoretic Agreement Framework for Multi-agent LLM Systems

The shift from monolithic LLMs to distributed multi-agent architectures demands new frameworks for verifying and securing autonomous coordination. Unlike traditional multi-agent systems focused on cooperative state alignment, modern LLM patterns: multi-agent debate, constitutional oversight, helper-critic loops-rely on adversarial critique for error correction and reasoning refinement. Since LLMs are dynamical systems whose latent states are imperfectly observable from verbalized outputs, securing these networks requires understanding both macroscopic topology and microscopic agent observability. This paper establishes a rigorous graph-theoretic framework for analyzing consensus in signed, directed interaction networks, bridging graph theory and LLM reasoning by formally mapping Transformer cross-entropy log-odds to the signed Laplacian. We characterize agreement stability through structural balance theory, showing how unbalanced critique cycles produce logical frustration and persistent reasoning oscillations, and prove that unobservable latent states from hidden system prompts act as topological Trojan horses that destabilize cooperative consensus. To resolve unobservable deadlocks, we restrict interaction topologies to chordal graphs and apply matrix decomposition with Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization, proving that rank-one spectral edge perturbations deterministically break expertise symmetry by shifting eigenvalues into the stable left-half plane. Core contributions include consensus theorems, polynomial-time Perfect Elimination Ordering verification algorithms, and large-scale empirical validation on clustered ensembles of LLaMA-3, Mistral, and Gemma agents.
Feb 17, 2026

The geometry of online conversations and the causal antecedents of conflictual discourse

This article investigates the causal antecedents of conflictual language and the geometry of interaction in online threaded conversations related to climate change. We employ three annotation dimensions, inferred through LLM prompting and averaging, to capture complementary aspects of discursive conflict (such as stance: agreement vs disagreement; tone: attacking vs respectful; and emotional versus factual framing) and use data from a threaded online forum to examine how these dimensions respond to temporal, conversational, and arborescent structural features of discussions. We show that, as suggested by the literature, longer delays between successive posts in a thread are associated with replies that are, on average, more respectful, whereas longer delays relative to the parent post are associated with slightly less disagreement but more emotional (less factual) language. Second, we characterize alignment with the local conversational environment and find strong convergence both toward the average stance, tone and emotional framing of older sibling posts replying to the same parent and toward those of the parent post itself, with parent post effects generally stronger than sibling effects. We further show that early branch-level responses condition these alignment dynamics, such that parent-child stance alignment is amplified or attenuated depending on whether a branch is initiated in agreement or disagreement with the discussion's root message. These influences are largely additive for civility-related dimensions (attacking vs respectful, disagree vs agree), whereas for emotional versus factual framing there is a significant interaction: alignment with the parent's emotionality is amplified when older siblings are similarly aligned.
Feb 12, 2026

Grounded Laplacians of Directed Signed Matrix-Weighted Networks: Spectral Properties and Applications to Non-Trivial Consensus

Grounded Laplacians provide the spectral link between external information and network convergence. This paper establishes positive-stability results for grounded Laplacians in directed signed matrix-weighted networks, where directionality, antagonism, and singular edge weight matrices coexist. First, under in-degree dominance and positive-negative reachability, we derive explicit local thresholds for the grounding gains. Second, a scaled, kernel-based certificate replaces the unscaled degree condition with a signed matrix-weighted Dirichlet decomposition and a joint-kernel test for the scaled symmetric part. The computable margin γpγ_p lower-bounds the minimum real part of the spectrum and certifies exponential contraction in the PP-norm. Under absolute generalized balance, the kernel-intersection test is given; the balanced and definite-edge unbalanced undirected cases follow. As an application, non-trivial consensus (NTC) on signed matrix-weighted networks is studied. Informed agents, external signals and coupling terms are designed to steer all agents to any prescribed nonzero state without requiring structural balance. Switching topology case retains non-trivial consensus result under certain conditions. Realizing NTC on signed matrix-weighted networks demonstrates that groups with both cooperative and antagonistic multi-dimensional interactions can achieve consensus, which was previously deemed exclusive to fully cooperative groups.
Jan 20, 2026

Generating consensus and dissent on massive discussion platforms with a semantic-vector model

Reaching consensus on massive discussion networks is critical for reducing noise and achieving optimal collective outcomes. However, the natural tendency of humans to preserve their initial ideas constrains the emergence of global solutions. To address this, Collective Intelligence (CI) platforms facilitate the discovery of globally superior solutions. We introduce a dynamical system based on the standard O(N)O(N) model to drive the aggregation of semantically similar ideas. The system consists of users represented as nodes in a d=2d=2 lattice with nearest-neighbor interactions, where their ideas are represented by semantic vectors computed with a pretrained embedding model. We analyze the system's equilibrium states as a function of the coupling parameter ββ. Our results show that β>0β> 0 drives the system toward a ferromagnetic-like phase (global consensus), while β<0β< 0 induces an antiferromagnetic-like state (maximum dissent), where users maximize semantic distance from their neighbors. This framework offers a controllable method for managing the tradeoff between cohesion and diversity in CI platforms.
Oct 29, 2025

DEBATE: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Evaluating Opinion Dynamics in Role-Playing LLM Agents

Modeling opinion change through social interactions is important for understanding polarization, misinformation, and societal conflict. Recent work simulates opinion dynamics with role-playing LLM agents (RPLAs), but multi-agent simulations often display unnatural group behavior (e.g., premature convergence) and lack empirical benchmarks for assessing alignment with real human group interactions. We introduce DEBATE, a benchmark for evaluating the authenticity of opinion dynamics in multi-agent RPLA simulations. DEBATE contains multi-round public messages and private Likert-scale beliefs from U.S.-based participants across 107 topics; the cleaned benchmark used in our experiments contains 2,788 participants in 697 groups, enabling evaluation at the utterance and group levels. We instantiate digital-twin RPLAs with seven LLMs and evaluate across two settings: next-message prediction and full dynamics simulation, using stance-based opinion-dynamics metrics. In zero-shot settings, RPLA groups exhibit strong opinion convergence relative to human groups. Across group-generalization tests with unseen participant groups and topic-generalization tests with unseen discussion topics, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct improves stance prediction of individuals and convergence prediction at the group level, though discrepancies in opinion change and belief updating remain. The dataset and benchmark website are publicly available.
Aug 24, 2025

The price of uncertainty for social consensus

How hard is it to achieve consensus in a social network under uncertainty? In this paper we model this problem as a social graph of agents where each vertex is initially colored red or blue. The goal of the agents is to achieve consensus, which is when the colors of all agents align. Agents attempt to do this locally through steps in which an agent changes their color to the color of the majority of their neighbors. In real life, agents may not know exactly how many of their neighbors are red or blue, which introduces uncertainty into this process. Modeling uncertainty as perturbations of relative magnitude 1+ε1+\varepsilon to these color neighbor counts, we show that even small values of ε\varepsilon greatly hinder the ability to achieve consensus in a social network. We prove theoretically tight upper and lower bounds on the price of uncertainty, a metric defined in previous work by Balcan et al. to quantify the effect of uncertainty in network games.