Linear Regret

Sequence prediction methods for linear dynamical systems with long memory, i.e. marginally stable systems, typically achieve regret that grows linearly with the hidden dimension of the underlying generative model. While many methods have been developed to address this regime with varying success, we show that simply using the second-order Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth (VAW) algorithm to learn a short autoregressive-with-inputs (ARX) model achieves astoundingly strong results: for bounded sequential data from a marginally-stable linear dynamical system with spectra in the complex disk except for angular wedge of width $δ$ around the negative real axis, this algorithm achieves dimension-free regret $O\left( δ^{-4} \log^2 T \right)$. These bounds are state-of-the-art to our knowledge. The key components for our result come from 1) using the theory of ``Universal Sequence Preconditioning'' (USP) \cite{marsdenuniversal} to prove the existence of an optimal setting of autoregressive coefficients, 2) the application of VAW which takes better advantage of the memory compression provided by USP, and 3) the analysis of Faber polynomials on circular sectors to extend these results to systems with complex spectra.

We design the first regret guarantees for robust dynamic pricing that decouple the dependence on the corruption $C$ and the time horizon $T$. In dynamic pricing, a seller with unlimited supply of a good interacts with a stream of buyers over $T$ rounds, with the goal of maximizing revenue. At each round $t$, the seller posts a price $p_t$, and the buyer purchases the good only if their unknown valuation $v^\star$ exceeds this price. The seller observes only the binary feedback $\mathbb{I} \left\{ p_t \leq v^\star \right\}$, indicating whether a sale occurred. In the \emph{robust} pricing setting, a malicious adversary is allowed to corrupt this feedback in at most $C$ rounds. Even if the learner knows the corruption $C$, the best known regret bound is $\mathcal{O}(C\log\log T)$ by Gupta et al. [2025]. This leaves as an open problem to ``decouple'' the dependence on $C$ and $T$. In this work, we resolve this open problem. In particular, we develop a robust variant of binary search that achieves regret $\mathcal{O}(C+\log T)$ when the corruption $C$ is known and $\mathcal{O}(C+\log^2 T)$ when the corruption is unknown.

The classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem tackles the challenge of accruing maximum reward while making decisions under uncertainty. However, in applications, often the goal is to minimize cost subject to a constraint on the minimum permissible reward, an objective captured by multi-armed bandits with cost-subsidy (MAB-CS). Of interest to this paper is the setting where the quality (reward) constraint is specified relative to the unknown best reward and the cost of each arm is known. We characterize the expected sub-optimal samples required by any policy by proving instance-dependent lower bounds that offer new insight into the problem and are a strict generalization of prior bounds. Then, we propose an algorithm called Cost-Ordered Feasibility (COF) that leverages our insight and intelligently combine samples from all arms to gauge the feasibility of a cheap arm. Thereafter, we analyze COF to establish instance-dependent upper bounds on its expected cumulative cost and quality regret, i.e., relative to the cheapest feasible arm. Finally, we empirically validate the merits of COF, comparing it to baselines from the literature through extensive simulation experiments on the MovieLens and Goodreads datasets as well as representative synthetic instances. Not only does our paper develop qualitatively better theoretical regret upper bounds, but COF also convincingly demonstrates improved empirical performance.

We study the distribution of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits and episodic reinforcement learning through a unified framework. We formalize a distributional regret bound as a probabilistic guarantee that holds uniformly over all confidence levels $δ\in (0,1]$, thereby characterizing the regret distribution across the full range of $δ$. We present a simple UCBVI-style algorithm with exploration bonus $\min\{c_{1,k}/N, c_{2,k}/\sqrt{N}\}$, where $N$ denotes the visit count and $(c_{1,k},c_{2,k})$ are user-specified parameters. For arbitrary parameter sequences, we derive general gap-independent and gap-dependent distributional regret bounds, yielding a principled characterization of how the parameters control the trade-off between expected performance, tail risk, and instance-dependent behavior. In particular, our bounds achieve optimal trade-offs between expected and distributional regret in both minimax and instance-dependent regimes. As a special case, for multi-armed bandits with $A$ arms and horizon $T$, we obtain a distributional regret bound of order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{AT}\log(1/δ))$, confirming the conjecture of Lattimore & Szepesvári (2020, Section 17.1) for the first time.

Online reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a promising paradigm for aligning large language models (LLMs) by continuously collecting new preference feedback during training. A foundational challenge in this setting is exploration, which requires algorithms that enable the LLMs to generate informative comparisons that improve sample-efficiency in online RLHF. Existing exploration strategies often derive bonuses via on-policy expectations, which are difficult to estimate reliably from the limited historical preference data available during training; as a result, the policy can prematurely down-weight under-explored regions that may contain high-value behaviors. In this paper, we propose data-dependent exploration for preference optimization (DEPO), a simple and scalable method that leverages historical data to construct an extra uncertainty bonus for high-uncertainty regions, encouraging exploration toward potentially high-value data. Theoretically, we provide a data-dependent regret bound for the proposed algorithm, showing that it adapts to the hardness of the learning task itself and can be tighter than worst-case bounds in practice. Empirically, the proposed method consistently outperforms strong baselines across benchmarks, demonstrating improved sample efficiency.

We study online prediction for marginally stable, partially observed linear dynamical systems under nonstochastic disturbances. Our objective is to minimize the cumulative squared prediction loss and compete with the best-in-hindsight Luenberger predictor. Standard online learning methods typically rely on bounded domains/gradients, and thus their guarantees may fail to deal with potentially unbounded trajectories in marginally stable systems. In this paper, we introduce an unconstrained online least squares method that stabilizes the learning process via tailored predictive hints. With model knowledge, we prove that hints constructed from any stabilizing Luenberger predictor render the hint residuals uniformly bounded, achieving logarithmic regret despite unbounded trajectory growth. We also discuss model-free prediction and introduce a simple universal hint for symmetric systems, under which logarithmic regret is maintained without model knowledge. Our results provide an adaptive, instance-wise optimal online predictor compared to classical fixed-gain observers under nonstochastic disturbances.

Interactive multi-objective optimization systems face a budget allocation dilemma: one can spend resources on expensive objective evaluations or on eliciting decision-maker preferences that identify the relevant region of the Pareto set. Moreover, preference elicitation itself spans modalities with different information content and cognitive burden, ranging from cheap, noisy pairwise preference statements (PS) to richer but costlier indifference adjustments (IA). We study cost-aware optimization under an unknown scalarization and introduce QUIVER (Query-Informed Value Estimation for Regret), a surrogate-assisted evolutionary multi-objective optimizer that adaptively chooses between objective evaluations and heterogeneous preference queries. At each step, QUIVER selects the next action by maximizing the expected decision-quality improvement per unit total cost. Across DTLZ and WFG benchmarks under synthetic decision-maker models, QUIVER achieves the lowest final utility regret on challenging WFG problems (utility regret of 2.14 on WFG4, 2.82 on WFG9: a 25% improvement over baselines), outperforming all single-modality baselines. We analyze how the optimal mix of PS and IA adapts to problem difficulty: on easy problems (DTLZ2), QUIVER selects 80% PS queries; on hard problems (WFG9), it shifts to 35% IA queries. This adaptive modality selection demonstrates cost-aware preference learning in action.

Existing auto-bidding algorithms in digital advertising often treat the value of an ad opportunity as the revenue obtained when an ad is shown and/or clicked, and bid accordingly. This can lead to wasteful spending because the true value is the marginal gain from paid exposure: even without winning a sponsored slot, an advertiser may still earn revenue via an organic search result (e.g., on Google or Amazon). Motivated by recent work, we model ad value as a treatment effect--the outcome difference between winning and losing the auction--and study online learning for bidding in second-price (Vickrey) auctions under this causal perspective. We develop algorithms that attain rate-optimal regret under several feedback models. A key ingredient exploits the information revealed by the second-price payment rule, which strictly improves regret relative to analogous learning problems in first-price auctions.

Decision-Focused Learning (DFL) trains predictors to improve downstream decision quality, but computing regret gradients typically requires differentiating through solvers or relying on surrogate losses, which can be computationally expensive or deviate from the true objective. We show that, under standard regularity with locally stable active constraints, the regret gradient admits a closed-form geometric characterization, equivalent to the prediction error projected onto the tangent space of active constraints, scaled by local curvature. This reveals that regret gradients can be obtained by filtering decision-irrelevant components from the MSE gradient, providing a simpler and more direct alternative to existing approaches. Based on this, we propose PEAR (Projected Error As Regret-gradient), which computes regret gradients via a reduced linear system over active constraints, avoiding differentiation through solver iterations or additional optimization solves. Experiments on LP benchmarks and a real-world QP task show that PEAR achieves the best decision quality among all baselines while being the most computationally efficient, with gains that persist under constraint shifts.

In federated contextual linear bandits, high data dimensionality incurs prohibitive computation and communication costs: local agents perform $O(d^3)$-time determinant computation and upload $O(d^2)$ parameters, making existing algorithms unscalable, where $d$ is the dimension of data. To relieve these scaling bottlenecks, this paper proposes Federated Sketch Contextual Linear Bandits (FSCLB). On the computation side, FSCLB uses SVD to indirectly obtain the determinant required for communication, eliminating the prohibitive cost of direct determinant calculation and cutting complexity from $O(d^3)$ to $O(l^2d)$ per round, where $l< d$ is the sketch size. On the communication side, FSCLB introduces a double-sketch strategy that reduces both upload and download costs from $O(d^2)$ to $O(ld)$. Naively involving sketch update into federated contextual linear bandits can destroy the local increment and invalidate the asynchronous communication condition; FSCLB solves this by replacing the covariance matrix with the sketch matrix when deciding whether to communicate. Theoretically, FSCLB achieves a regret bound of $\widetilde{O} ((\sqrt{d}+\sqrt{M\varepsilon_l})\sqrt{lT})$, where $\varepsilon_l$ is the upper bounded by the spectral tail of the covariance matrix; when $l$ exceeds the rank of the covariance matrix, the bound simplifies to $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{ldT})$, matching the optimal no-sketch regret. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that FSCLB significantly reduces computational and communication costs by over 90 % while sacrificing only a negligible amount of cumulative reward.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a central post-training tool for aligning large language models, but its training reward is only a learned proxy for true human utility. This creates a decision problem under objective misspecification: the policy is optimized against an estimated reward, while deployment performance is governed by an unobserved population preference. The resulting gap leads to reward over-optimization, where proxy reward keeps improving after true quality deteriorates. We propose distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO) for RLHF with a Wasserstein ambiguity set over reward laws, using promptwise $\ell_p$ distances between reward vectors as transport costs. Unlike standard distributionally robust optimization, which pessimizes worst-case value, DRRO pessimizes worst-case regret relative to the best policy under the same plausible reward perturbation. We show that the expressive-policy problem decomposes into promptwise regret problems. For each prompt, the inner adversary has a dual-norm closed form; under the $\ell_1$ transport cost used by our algorithm, the optimizer has a water-filling structure. These results lead to a practical policy-gradient algorithm that adds a simple sampled bonus to GRPO-style training. Theory and experiments both show that DRRO is less over-pessimistic than standard DRO and mitigates over-optimization more effectively than existing baselines.

We study online regression with the square loss in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space under a dynamic regret criterion. The learner is compared with a time-varying comparator sequence, and the bounds depend on its path length in the RKHS norm. The proposed method transfers the finite-dimensional discounted Vovk--Azoury--Warmuth approach of Jacobsen & Cutkosky (2024) to the RKHS setting by means of finite-dimensional subspace approximations. For a fixed subspace, we run a VAW-based ensemble of discounted VAW forecasters over a geometric grid of discount factors. The additional approximation error is controlled by the uniform projection error of kernel sections. We then introduce a general orthogonal truncation method: starting from a feature expansion of the kernel, we construct the associated RKHS by introducing an inner product that makes the feature functions orthonormal, and then use the spans of the first basis functions as finite-dimensional approximation spaces. The resulting subspace reduction is applied to several approximation schemes. Explicit feature expansions yield fast-regime bounds for Gaussian and analytic dot-product kernels. Mercer truncations provide a spectral approximation method and lead to dynamic regret bounds in fast and slow regimes, depending on the eigenvalue decay. Finally, we study subspaces spanned by kernel sections and apply this construction to Matérn kernels.

Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space, where the state is either 0 or 1. We study prior-agnostic robust forecast aggregation in which the aggregator observes only experts' reports, yet is ignorant of both the underlying joint information structure and the full prior, including the underlying state space. Unlike the standard model that fixes the binary state space {0, 1}, we allow the (binary) unknown state values to be arbitrary numbers in [0, 1], so the same reported probability may correspond to very different realized outcome frequencies across environments. Our main contribution is a simple, explicit, closed-form log-odds aggregator that linearly pools forecasts in logit space, together with (nearly-)tight minimax-regret guarantees across three knowledge regimes. We first show that under conditionally independent (CI) signals, robust aggregation with an unknown state space is strictly harder than in the known-state setting by establishing a larger lower bound, and our aggregation rule can achieve a worst-case regret of 0.0255. Along the way, we also characterize tight regret bounds for Blackwell-ordered structures and for general information structures. In the classical setting with known state space {0,1}, our aggregator achieves regret strictly below 0.0226 for CI structures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit closed-form aggregator that achieves a regret upper bound strictly less than 0.0226. Finally, we extend the model where the aggregator additionally knows each expert's marginal forecast distribution; in this setting, with the CI structures, we show that a generalized log-odds rule achieves regret of 0.0228, complementing with a lower bound of 0.0225.

We study the problem of adaptive control of the stochastic linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with constraints that must be satisfied at every time step. Prior work on the multidimensional problem has shown $\tilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret and satisfaction of robust constraints, leaving open the question of whether $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret can be attained in the constrained LQR setting. We contribute to this problem by showing $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret and satisfaction of chance constraints. This type of constraints allow us to handle unbounded noise and also enable analytical techniques not directly applicable to robust constraints. Our proposed algorithm for this problem uses an SDP to select an optimistic policy, and then "scales back" this policy until it is verifiably-safe. Our theoretical analysis establishes regret and constraint guarantees via a key lemma that bounds the system covariance in terms of the chosen policy. This covariance-based analysis is in contrast with the cost-to-go based analysis that is typically used in adaptive LQR.

We give a Gordon-Greenwald-Marks (GGM) style black-box reduction from online learning to online multicalibration. Concretely, we show that to achieve high-dimensional multicalibration with respect to a class of functions H, it suffices to combine any no-regret learner over H with an expected variational inequality (EVI) solver. We also prove a converse statement showing that efficient multicalibration implies efficient EVI solving, highlighting how EVIs in multicalibration mirror the role of fixed points in the GGM result for $Φ$-regret. This first set of results resolves the main open question in Garg, Jung, Reingold, and Roth (SODA '24), showing that oracle-efficient online multicalibration with $\sqrt{T}$-type guarantees is possible in full generality. Furthermore, our GGM-style reduction unifies the analyses of existing online multicalibration algorithms, enables new algorithms for challenging environments with delayed observations or censored outcomes, and yields the first efficient black-box reduction between online learning and multiclass omniprediction. Our second main result is a fine-grained reduction from high-dimensional online multicalibration to (contextual) $Φ$-regret minimization. Together with our first result, this establishes a new route from external regret to Phi-regret that bypasses sophisticated fixed-point or semi-separation machinery, dramatically simplifies a result of Daskalakis, Farina, Fishelson, Pipis, and Schneider (STOC '25) while improving rates, and yields new algorithms that are robust to richer deviation classes, such as those belonging to any reproducing kernel Hilbert space.

We study downlink beam and rate adaptation in a multi-user mmWave MISO system where multiple base stations (BSs), each using analog beamforming from finite codebooks, serve multiple single-antenna user equipments (UEs) with a unique beam per UE and discrete data transmission rates. BSs learn about transmission success based on ACK/NACK feedback. To encode service goals, we introduce a satisficing throughput threshold $τ_r$ and cast joint beam and rate adaptation as a combinatorial semi-bandit over beam-rate tuples. Within this framework, we propose SAT-CTS, a lightweight, threshold-aware policy that blends conservative confidence estimates with posterior sampling, steering learning toward meeting $τ_r$ rather than merely maximizing. Our main theoretical contribution provides the first finite-time regret bounds for combinatorial semi-bandits with satisficing objective: when $τ_r$ is realizable, we upper bound the cumulative satisficing regret to the target with a time-independent constant, and when $τ_r$ is non-realizable, we show that SAT-CTS incurs only a finite expected transient outside committed CTS rounds, after which its regret is governed by the sum of the regret contributions of restarted CTS rounds, yielding an $O((\log T)^2)$ standard regret bound. On the practical side, we evaluate the performance via cumulative satisficing regret to $τ_r$ alongside standard regret and fairness. Experiments with time-varying sparse multipath channels show that SAT-CTS consistently reduces satisficing regret and maintains competitive standard regret, while achieving favorable average throughput and fairness across users, indicating that feedback-efficient learning can equitably allocate beams and rates to meet QoS targets without channel state knowledge.

Nash regret has recently emerged as a principled fairness-aware performance metric for stochastic multi-armed bandits, motivated by the Nash Social Welfare objective. Although this notion has been extended to linear bandits, existing results suffer from suboptimality in ambient dimension $d$, stemming from proof techniques that rely on restrictive concentration inequalities. In this work, we resolve this open problem by introducing new analytical tools that yield an order-optimal Nash regret bound in linear bandits. Beyond Nash regret, we initiate the study of $p$-means regret in linear bandits, a unifying framework that interpolates between fairness and utility objectives and strictly generalizes Nash regret. We propose a generic algorithmic framework, FairLinBandit, that works as a meta-algorithm on top of any linear bandit strategy. We instantiate this framework using two bandit algorithms: Phased Elimination and Upper Confidence Bound, and prove that both achieve sublinear $p$-means regret for the entire range of $p$. Extensive experiments on linear bandit instances generated from real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods consistently outperform the existing state-of-the-art baseline.

Real-world reinforcement learning often faces environment drift, but most existing methods rely on static entropy coefficients/target entropy, causing over-exploration during stable periods and under-exploration after drift, and leaving unanswered the principled question of how exploration intensity should scale with drift magnitude. We show that, under standard assumptions, entropy scheduling in non-stationary maximum-entropy RL can be cast as the dynamic-regret trade-off between tracking a drifting comparator and stabilizing updates, yielding a square-root scaling rule for the entropy weight in terms of a online non-stationarity proxy. Building on this, we propose AES--Adaptive Entropy Scheduling--which adaptively adjusts the entropy coefficient/temperature online using observable drift proxies during training, requiring almost no structural changes and incurring minimal overhead. Across 4 algorithm variants, 12 tasks, and 4 drift modes, AES significantly reduces the fraction of performance degradation caused by drift and accelerates recovery after abrupt changes.

We prove that Thompson sampling exhibits $\tilde{O}(σd \sqrt{T} + d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)})$ Bayesian regret in the linear-Gaussian bandit with a $\mathcal{N}(μ_0, Σ_0)$ prior distribution on the coefficients, where $d$ is the dimension, $T$ is the time horizon, $r$ is the maximum $\ell_2$ norm of the actions, and $σ^2$ is the noise variance. In contrast to existing regret bounds, this shows that to within logarithmic factors, the prior-dependent burn-in'' term $d r \sqrt{\mathrm{Tr}(Σ_0)}$ decouples additively from the minimax (long run) regret $σd \sqrt{T}$. Previous regret bounds exhibit a multiplicative dependence on these terms. We establish these results via a new elliptical potential'' lemma, and also provide a lower bound indicating that the burn-in term is unavoidable.

An associative memory (AM) enables cue-response recall, and it has recently been recognized as a key mechanism underlying modern neural architectures such as Transformers. In this work, we introduce the concept of distributed dynamic associative memory (DDAM), which extends classical AM to settings with multiple agents and time-varying data streams. In DDAM, each agent maintains a local AM that must not only store its own associations but also selectively memorize information from other agents based on a specified interest matrix. To address this problem, we propose a novel tree-based distributed online gradient descent algorithm, termed DDAM-TOGD, which enables each agent to update its memory on the fly via inter-agent communication over designated routing trees. We derive rigorous performance guarantees for DDAM-TOGD, proving sublinear static regret in stationary environments and a path-length dependent dynamic regret bound in non-stationary environments. These theoretical results provide insights into how communication delays and network structure impact performance. Building on the regret analysis, we further introduce a combinatorial tree design strategy that optimizes the routing trees to minimize communication delays, thereby improving regret bounds. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed DDAM-TOGD framework achieves superior accuracy and robustness compared to representative online learning baselines such as consensus-based distributed optimization, confirming the benefits of the proposed approach in dynamic, distributed environments.

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is widely used for decision-making under uncertainty, but its adversarial focus on worst-case loss can lead to overly conservative policies. To mitigate this, we study ex-ante Distributionally Robust Regret Optimization (DRRO) with Wasserstein ambiguity sets, designed to balance robustness with upside potential. We develop a theory of Wasserstein DRRO (WDRRO) paralleling Wasserstein DRO. Under smoothness and regularity, WDRRO selects among ERM optima by a first-order gradient-discrepancy rule. If the ERM optimizer is unique, first-order sensitivity vanishes and a second-order expansion governs deviations. For convex quadratics ERM and DRRO coincide for any radius. We then study regimes where these assumptions fail: nondifferentiable max-affine losses, discrete references, and larger radii, where WDRRO can differ from ERM and WDRO. We show that computing WDRRO regret is NP-hard even without bilinear terms. Nevertheless, we develop exact algorithms, a tractable convex relaxation with guarantees, and experiments showing tightness and loss-dependent behavior.

We pose uncertainty quantification and exploration in online decision-making as a problem of training and generation from an autoregressive sequence model, an area experiencing rapid innovation. Our approach rests on viewing uncertainty as arising from missing future outcomes that could be revealed through action choices, rather than from unobservable latent parameters of the environment. This reformulation aligns naturally with modern machine learning capabilities: we can i) train generative models through next-outcome prediction rather than fit explicit priors, ii) assess uncertainty through autoregressive generation rather than sampling latent parameters from posteriors, and iii) adapt to new information by extending the sequence model's context rather than explicit posterior updating. Our main theoretical result establishes a reduction from online decision-making to offline next-outcome prediction: Bayesian regret is controlled directly by the sequence model's offline prediction loss, without requiring an explicit latent-variable posterior. Experiments, including a semi-synthetic news recommendation task, show that autoregressive generation produces calibrated epistemic uncertainty and enables effective exploration by using article text as prior information to focus exploration on resolving remaining uncertainties.

The performance of online mirror descent depends critically on the geometry induced by its mirror map, yet standard algorithms largely rely on two canonical choices: Euclidean and entropic geometry. We show that these two geometries can both be substantially suboptimal when loss gradients are sparse. We introduce a family of randomized block-norm mirror maps that interpolates between Euclidean and entropic geometries and adapts to intermediate sparsity structure. For several standard convex sets, including $\ell_p$ balls, ellipsoids, boxes, and Minkowski sums of norm balls, we prove polynomial-in-dimension improvements in regret bounds over the better of online projected gradient descent and exponentiated gradient. We further construct explicit online convex optimization instances for which these improvements are realized: on a simple polytope, an intermediate block geometry achieves a $\text{poly}(d)$ separation in regret from both Euclidean and entropic geometries in dimension $d$, while on the probability simplex we obtain a separation of order $\Omega(\sqrt{\log d}/\log\log d)$. Finally, we study geometry selection when sparsity is unknown. We show that naively alternating between mirror maps can incur linear regret, even though either mirror map alone has sublinear regret, and give a Hedge meta-algorithm that competes with the best mirror map in a finite portfolio. For random block geometries, this yields regret within an $O(\sqrt{\log\log d})$ factor of the best random uniform block norm chosen in hindsight.