Quantitative Idea Divergence

Federated learning lets multiple participants train a shared model without pooling raw data, by exchanging locally trained model updates instead. Federated averaging assumes that averaging local models is a reasonable way to solve one shared problem when participants' data are broadly similar. Work on non-IID federated learning has shown that this assumption can withstand differences in label and feature distributions. We ask whether it survives a different strain specific to graph neural networks, where client graphs differ not in label or feature distribution but in structure itself, requiring the same shared weights to operate over fundamentally different topologies. We call the resulting harm structural negative transfer. In a federation of real citation networks and synthetic structural proxies, a structurally atypical client lost more than half its achievable accuracy simply by joining. In an initial six-client federation, two label-free structural statistics computable before training were strongly associated with this harm. Expanding to twenty clients showed that degree divergence remained associated with harm, although more weakly, and survived removal of domain contrast. Spectral divergence did not replicate, which we trace to a confound caused by the composition of the reference pool used for leave-one-out statistics. A causal intervention isolating topology found no significant effect. A degree-normalization mechanism held across twenty-four seeds but did not explain the harm when corrected. The best of five candidate fixes beat a tuned baseline only until a matched, structurally blind control was applied, after which the gain disappeared. What survives is a modest, partially replicated, degree-specific signal that is not yet a validated predictor at scale.

Does the cooperative bias documented for Western frontier LLM agents extend to a different alignment lineage, and should the Chinese models that embody it be treated as a single bloc or as distinct laboratories? We study four frontier-tier Chinese models - DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen3-Max, Kimi K2.5 and GLM-5.1 - in an evolutionary Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, under a design that removes a confound present in prior work. Rather than letting each model convert its own natural-language strategies into code, which entangles strategic disposition with coding ability, we hold the converter fixed (GPT-5.4 Mini) across all labs, so every cross-lab comparison is a comparison of generation alone. We run the full protocol: all-play-all tournaments and a Moran process at n=500 runs per condition, across three prompt styles and four population regimes. Two pre-registered hypotheses are evaluated. H6 (not monolithic) is supported: the four labs differ significantly in aggressive-equilibrium proportion, P_A running from 1% for Qwen3-Max to 9% for DeepSeek V4 Pro, with four of six pairwise comparisons surviving Holm-Bonferroni. The spread across the four labs (P_A range 8pp) is larger than the difference between the Chinese and Western ecosystems' mean P_A (5.0% vs 5.0%): on this measure, within-ecosystem variation exceeds the East-West gap. H5 (cooperative-bias generality) is consistent but qualified: a cooperative plurality holds in 6 of 12 lab-prompt combinations against the 9 of 12 reported for Western models, a difference we do not treat as firm, since the count rests on Cooperative-Neutral near-ties and rises to 9/12 under an alternate converter in our pre-registered robustness check. The lab, not the ecosystem, is the unit at which cooperative disposition is set; treating "Chinese models" as a monolith is not supported by the evidence.

A temporally drifting data stream may pass through discrete regimes rather than changing continuously. We ask whether such regimes are recoverable from the weights of models trained on the stream, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) fit to the chronologically ordered trajectory of those weights. We study this question in two domains known to drift over time: multimodal misinformation detection, using the Fakeddit dataset; and sentiment analysis, using the Yelp dataset. We train classifiers on consecutive temporal windows and fit an HMM to the trajectory of their aligned weights, recovering latent states that partition each timeline into coherent phases. On both datasets, classifiers generalize better to data from windows sharing the state of their training window than to windows across state boundaries. This within-state transfer advantage survives a control for temporal proximity and modestly exceeds the advantage recovered by a naive partition into contiguous states of equal size. Although the states are estimated solely from model weights, they correlate more strongly with shifts in the data's class distribution than with the weight-space geometry used to estimate them. After class divergence and lag are residualized out, the within-state advantage exceeds its permutation null on both tasks, indicating that the states recover structure relevant to transfer beyond the data distribution. Every effect replicates on both tasks but is attenuated on Yelp, whose label distribution is more temporally stable.

Production LLM-based financial sentiment analysis faces a structural cost trap: most queries are trivially classifiable, yet expensive cloud reasoners process them all, and the bill scales linearly with user count. We present TriAgent, a multi-agent committee stratified by contextual granularity -- a word-level lexicon (VADER), a sentence-level domain transformer (FinBERT), and a cross-sentence reasoner (Qwen2.5, 0.5B-14B-4bit, with Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5-mini cross-family checks). A three-way Semantic Divergence Index (SDI) measures pairwise disagreement across granularities and routes each query accordingly. Our central finding is the critic plateau: when the LLM is re-tasked as a critic over the smaller agents' outputs, F1 plateaus at ~0.87 across 1.5B-7B Qwen (bootstrap 95% CIs overlap), while a same-size 3-persona vote drops to F1=0.66, which is driven by granularity-stratified diversity. Three corollaries follow from the same SDI signal: (i) a Shared Consensus Dictionary on multilingual sentence-BERT answers 95% of Chinese queries from an English cache at F1=0.99 -- cross-border canonicalization at zero marginal cost; (ii) SDI doubles as a post-hoc LLM-hallucination detector at AUC=0.90; (iii) the SDI single-stage strategy attains the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe=3.50) on a 20-ticker back-test, dominating both always-FinBERT (1.36) and always-LLM (0.11). At 10M-user scale, TriAgent saves $9.3M/year vs. a GPT-4o-mini baseline. Code, lexicons, and the SCD are released.

Global objectives, such as KL divergence and ELBO, are widely used in Bayesian inference for measuring distributional discrepancy. This paper studies their local-mass behaviour that is not directly captured by such objectives. We introduce and use two mathematical tools: (1) Mass Index for recording the polynomial and logarithmic decay scales of local mass, and (2) regularised extended KL (RE-KL), a set-localised divergence that can be formulated in the presence of singular components. Mass Indices help characterise how Bayesian updating changes local mass: (1) power-log likelihood factors shift it explicitly, and (2) parameter-dependent supports, or their smooth softenings, may change the local scale through the amount of mass that remains near the parameter value. Using local RE-KL, we prove absolute, relative, and directional inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses under the two KL directions. Together, these results provide a local theoretical account of local mass behaviour. Experiments provide controlled illustrations of the local behaviour. Code is available at https://github.com/Forsythia0604/Local-Mass-Framework.

MLLM-as-a-Judge is conventionally validated by agreement with human annotations, but this metric is undefined when the human pool is culturally heterogeneous. We introduce VOIR DIRE, a multimodal benchmark of 626 culturally paired image--prompt artifacts spanning U.S. and mainland Chinese contexts across food, fashion, and architecture, with annotator pools that are within-pool reliable (a = 0.86/0.74) but cross-pool divergent on evaluation (Q1 r = -0.12). Across six MLLMs, the bias decomposes into two failures: a positivity-floor calibration failure (compressed scale use) and an orientation failure (default to one cultural norm). On this corpus, where contested items are sampled to split the two pools, the floor mechanically validates the more-permissive Chinese reading; persona prompting partially recovers calibration, but the orientation residual survives, evidence the tilt is not reducible to scale compression. Reference-pool in-context demonstrations deepen the orientation residual and inflate the high end rather than restoring use of the low end. Model origin adds a small additive tilt (~0.10 MAE) that is approximately invariant under demonstration. We recommend reporting alignment against each reference pool separately and treating cross-pool divergence as a judge property.

Scale buys interpolation; structure buys certifiable transfer. A world model's average error does not say whether a particular rollout can be trusted, or for how long. For equivariant latent world models we give a predictability certificate: a computable region spanning configuration, horizon, and resolution. Under exact equivariance, rollout error is invariant over the monoid generated by k primitive symmetries and is certified from the k generators (Theorem A); universal orbit-flatness over equivariant targets characterizes equivariance at the function level (Lemma 2), so an unconstrained architecture cannot certify the property by construction. Approximate orbit-transfer defects propagate by the finite-time Lyapunov spectrum (Theorem B): expanding channels give a logarithmic horizon $T_j(ε)\sim\log(1/ε)/λ_j$, neutral channels accumulate recurrent defect linearly, and contracting channels accumulate a bounded nonzero floor. Exact conserved charge values are certified to all horizons only at zero defect; with one-step defect $η$, charge-value error grows at most as $Tη$. Empirically, on a 40-dimensional learned model a $\mathbb{Z}_N$-equivariant network recovers the full Lyapunov spectrum ($R^2=0.98$-$0.99$) where dense and recurrent baselines fail. A cone/adapted-metric certificate reads an a-priori horizon off the model's own Jacobian, tight on uniformly hyperbolic dynamics and self-abstaining elsewhere; the resulting horizon improves a budgeted re-observation decision. For public non-equivariant world models the tangent spectrum gives a training-free candidate horizon, paired with a held-out divergence cross-check that abstains or corrects when the learned loop over-promises.

We introduce Midpoint Generative Models (MGM), a principled framework for training one-step generative models. MGM is based on a simple symmetry of Flow Matching with linear interpolation: when the two endpoint distributions coincide, the corresponding drift field vanishes at the midpoint time, $t=1/2$. We show that the norm of this field defines a valid discrepancy between distributions, which we call the Midpoint Divergence. We extend this discrepancy beyond the midpoint by introducing randomly flipped interpolations and further generalize it by replacing deterministic linear Flow Matching interpolations with symmetric stochastic interpolants, yielding a generalized Midpoint Divergence. Finally, we derive a variational formulation of our generalized divergence, yielding a tractable objective for training a one-step generator. The resulting MGM algorithm offers an effective and theoretically grounded approach to generative modeling, achieving competitive performance against existing one-step generative modeling methods.

Machine learning methods rely on data. However, gathering suitable data can be challenging due to availability constraints, cost, or the need for domain expertise. Expanding datasets with additional sources is a common response to limited data, yet this practice does not always improve downstream performance and can sometimes lead to a loss of performance, known as negative transfer. We propose RADAR, a simple, geometrically grounded metric for estimating cross-domain transferability in foundation models. RADAR analyzes the layer-wise evolution of representations by measuring angular alignments and relative changes in distance along layer-to-layer displacement trajectories, and by comparing empirical distributions of within-domain and cross-domain dynamics. We hypothesize that domain transferability is related to the divergence between these trajectory distributions. We evaluate the metric across multiple modalities, including cross-lingual sentiment classification with text embedding models and cross-domain image classification with foundation vision models. Across several settings, RADAR provides competitive predictive performance relative to existing transferability metrics on several vision and text benchmarks, with particularly strong results when domain transitions are smooth or cleanly separated. Our ablations further suggest that the effectiveness of transferability estimation depends on the geometry of the model's internal representation space, with different modalities favoring different topological formulations.

Federated learning enables collaborative training across distributed clients with heterogeneous data, but such heterogeneity often leads to unstable updates and degraded global performance. Moreover, in practical deployments, client updates may deviate from the expected behavior not only due to benign not i.i.d. distributions, but also due to distributional shifts or anomalous inputs, raising concerns about the reliability of the aggregation process. In this work, we propose a lightweight geometric signal to quantify the functional deviation of a client with respect to the global model. Instead of comparing model parameters or gradients, our approach measures how the local training of each client alters the activation-induced partition of the input space, evaluated on a shared probe set. This yields a permutation-invariant, interpretable metric of client--global divergence that captures differences in how data is processed by the model. We show that this signal effectively identifies clients that induce atypical functional changes, distinguishing stable yet heterogeneous clients from those whose updates significantly diverge from the global regime. As a result, the proposed metric provides a simple tool for monitoring client behavior and enabling risk-aware aggregation strategies in federated learning systems.

Validating interpretable surrogate models for ensemble learners requires measuring agreement between the ensemble's internal representation and its surrogate approximation, rather than mere association. Correlation-based approaches are scale-invariant and fail to detect systematic discrepancies in co-occurrence structure. We propose a statistical framework grounded in the agreement-association distinction, centered on the normalized Loss of Interpretability (nLoI). Rooted in the Cressie-Read power divergence family with lambda equal to 2, the nLoI admits a closed-form decomposition into within-node and between-node components, providing a unique diagnostic capability to identify precisely where and why reconstruction fails. The framework incorporates four complementary measures capturing distinct structural facets of approximation quality. A unified permutation testing procedure delivers valid inference for all measures within a single resampling pass. Theoretical properties, including boundedness and symmetry, are established for each metric. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical evaluations confirm exact Type I error control and demonstrate that these measures detect reconstruction fidelity gradients invisible to correlation-based alternatives. The framework is developed and illustrated in the context of Explainable Ensemble Trees (E2Tree), and empirical evaluation on three benchmark datasets illustrates the practical utility of the framework.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by having a lightweight draft model propose speculative windows of candidate tokens for parallel verification by a larger target model. In practice, speculative efficiency is often bottlenecked by hard-to-draft positions, where an early mismatch truncates the accepted prefix and invalidates the rest of the speculative window. Most learning-based drafters are still optimized with token-level supervised objectives, even though speculative utility is inherently window-level and prefix-sensitive. We propose PPOW (Performance-Driven Policy Optimization with Adaptive Windowing), a reinforcement learning framework that shifts drafter optimization from token-level imitation to window-level optimization. PPOW combines a Cost-Aware Speedup Reward, a Distribution-Based Proximity Reward, and Adaptive Divergence-Aware Windowing, which prioritizes informative windows with high confidence-weighted draft-target divergence. PPOW achieves average acceptance lengths of 6.29-6.52 and speedups of 3.39-4.36$\times$ across multiple model families and benchmarks under a unified decoding protocol. These results show that performance-driven window-level optimization is a practical approach to improving speculative decoding efficiency.

Many real-world coding challenges are open-ended and admit no known optimal solution. Yet, recent progress in LLM coding has focused on well-defined tasks such as feature implementation, bug fixing, and competitive programming. Open-ended coding remains a weak spot for LLMs, largely because open-ended training problems are scarce and expensive to construct. Our goal is to synthesize open-ended coding problems at scale to train stronger LLM coders. We introduce FrontierSmith, an automated system for iteratively evolving open-ended problems from existing closed-ended coding tasks. Starting from competitive programming problems, FrontierSmith generates candidate open-ended variants by changing the problems'goals, restricting outputs, and generalizing inputs. It then uses a quantitative idea divergence metric to select problems that elicit genuinely diverse approaches from different solvers. Agents then generate test cases and verifiers for the surviving candidates. On two open-ended coding benchmarks, training on our synthesized data yields substantial gains over the base models: Qwen3.5-9B improves by +8.82 score on FrontierCS and +306.36 (Elo-rating-based performance) on ALE-bench; Qwen3.5-27B improves by +12.12 and +309.12, respectively. The synthesized problems also make agents take more turns and use more tokens, similar to human-curated ones, suggesting that closed-ended seeds can be a practical starting point for long-horizon coding data.

Leaderboards rank frontier models on independent axes but do not reveal whether capabilities reinforce or trade off across releases -- and at the frontier, this interaction is the more informative signal. We decompose paired SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond scores into a population coupling trend and per-release residual ($h$-field) that diagnoses capability emphasis from two public benchmark scores. Across 34 models from 10 labs (2024--2026), capabilities cooperate ($r = +0.72$, $p < 10^{-6}$), but cooperation varies systematically: per-lab coupling slopes span $5\times$ (Google $1.15$ vs. DeepSeek $0.23$), and labs pivot -- DeepSeek reversed from reasoning-rich to coding-first ($Δh = 15.9$~pp); Anthropic oscillates between coding excursions and recovery. The population regression serves as an isocline phase boundary: the same $\sqrt{(a/b)\cdot B_1}$ classifier that identifies the base-scale coupling transition [Amin, 2026] classifies frontier models and already detects mixed-phase behavior at the next transition (two models below the GPQA--IFEval isocline). The $h$-field is not just diagnostic -- it tells you what to change. Pretraining establishes coupling at $0.871$ while RLHF adds $0.081$ [Amin, 2026]: pretraining-level shifts are permanent (DeepSeek's four-release reversal persists), post-training shifts are reversible (Anthropic's three coding excursions each recover within one release), and inference compute alone shifts $h$ by $+7.8$~pp without retraining. Knowing which component dominates determines whether to retrain or wait. We provide a three-step diagnostic (locate, classify, predict), a per-lab measurement-priority table, and seven falsifiable predictions with timestamped criteria. Five post-cutoff releases fall within the 95% prediction interval. Code, data, and an interactive dashboard: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

Emojis are widely used in online financial communication, but it is unclear whether they provide transferable sentiment signals across languages, platforms, and asset communities. This study examines the extent to which emoji usage, semantics, and sentiment polarity remain stable across financial communities, and how these layers influence zero-shot sentiment transfer. Using large corpora of Twitter and StockTwits posts in four languages, we measure cross-community divergence and evaluate sentiment models trained under emoji-only, text-only, and text+emoji inputs. We find that emoji frequencies differ across communities, especially across languages, but their semantics and sentiment polarity are largely stable. Cross-asset transferability shows minimal degradation, while cross-language transfer remains the most challenging. Including emojis consistently reduces transfer gaps relative to text-only models. These results indicate that financial communication exhibits a partially shared ``emoji code,'' and that emojis provide compact, language-independent sentiment cues that improve model generalization across markets and platforms.

This paper uses a minimum divergence framework to introduce a new way of calculating model weights that can be used to average probabilistic predictions from statistical and machine learning models. The method is general and can be applied regardless of whether the models under consideration are fit to data using frequentist, Bayesian, or some other fitting method. The proposed method is motivated in two different ways and is shown empirically to perform better than or on a par with standard model averaging methods, including model stacking and model averaging that relies on Akaike-style negative exponentiated model weighting, especially when the sample size is small. Our theoretical analysis explains why the method has a small-sample advantage.

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight alternative through two approximations: a first-order Taylor expansion that expresses uncertainty in terms of the gradient of the prediction and the parameter covariance, and an isotropy assumption on the parameter covariance. Together, these yield epistemic uncertainty as the squared gradient norm and aleatoric uncertainty as the Bernoulli variance of the point prediction, from a single forward-backward pass through an unmodified pretrained model. We justify the isotropy assumption by showing that covariance estimates built from non-training data introduce structured distortions that isotropic covariance avoids, and that theoretical results on the spectral properties of large networks support the approximation at scale. Validation against reference Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimates on synthetic problems shows strong correspondence that improves with model size. We then use the estimates to investigate when each uncertainty type carries useful signal for predicting answer correctness in question answering with large language models, revealing a benchmark-dependent divergence: the combined estimate achieves the highest mean AUROC on TruthfulQA, where questions involve genuine conflict between plausible answers, but falls to near chance on TriviaQA's factual recall, suggesting that parameter-level uncertainty captures a fundamentally different signal than self-assessment methods.

In low-resource multilingual speech-to-text translation, uniform architectural sharing across languages frequently introduces representation conflicts that impede convergence. This work proposes a principled methodology to automatically determine layer-specific sharing patterns by mining training gradient information. Our approach employs three distinct analysis strategies: distance-based language clustering, self/cross-task divergence metrics for capacity allocation, and joint factorization coupled with canonical correlation analysis for subspace alignment. Extensive evaluation across four language pairs (using the SeamlessM4T-Medium architecture) demonstrates persistent improvements in translation quality metrics.

Deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) on memory-constrained edge devices relies heavily on aggressive post-training quantization. However, evaluating these models is largely based on zero-shot task accuracy, which depends solely on argmax predictions and is insensitive to changes in the underlying predictive distribution. Consequently, accuracy can exhibit unstable, non-monotonic behavior under progressive quantization, masking substantial fidelity loss relative to the BFloat16 (BF16) uncompressed base model and providing misleading deployment signals. We introduce a distribution-sensitive evaluation framework quantifying information loss in quantized LLMs as the divergence between full-vocabulary predictive distributions at the token decision boundary. We compute statistical distances, including Jensen-Shannon Divergence and Total Variation Distance, between outputs of full-precision and quantized models, enabling a fine-grained analysis of distributional shift. Using this framework, we quantify probability mass displacement and distributional drift relative to the BF16 reference, capturing predictive distribution changes not reflected in top-1 accuracy. We conduct a 120-run experimental matrix across five foundation architectures and four reasoning benchmarks under progressive quantization regimes, from uncompressed BF16 to Q2_K, providing a systematic fidelity analysis. Our results show divergence metrics generally increase under stronger quantization, complementing task accuracy with a fidelity signal. Across tested llama-cpp schemes, mixed-precision Q4_K generally yields lower divergence than uniform Q4_0 at similar memory footprints. These findings motivate distribution-aware evaluation as a practical diagnostic complement to task accuracy; they do not directly establish correctness, calibration, safety, or user-perceived quality.