Temporal Domain Adaptation

Motivated by sequence-to-sequence transport in the context time-series domain adaptation, we study the problem of transportation between trajectories of Markov processes. Given a limited number of trajectories from source distribution and the target distribution, we formulate a flow matching based algorithm which learns a transport map from the source to target trajectory distribution, while preserving the Markov structure. We show that this is consistent in the population limit and derive finite-sample error bounds under mixing time assumptions, following the analysis of classical statistical problems including regression (Nagaraj et al., 2020), principal component analysis (Kumar and Sarkar, 2023), and matrix concentration (Neeman et al., 2024) in the Markov setting. We complement that with a lower-bound construction showing that a mixing-time dependent sample complexity is unavoidable even with regular Gaussian conditional transitions. We evaluate on synthetic and real-world data. For image retrieval from electroencephalography (EEG) on THINGS-EEG2 (Gifford et al., 2022), the task is to identify the viewed image from EEG signals captured from human subjects, which suffers from high inter subject variability. We augment the ENIGMA decoder (Kneeland et al., 2026) with a conditional flow before its subject-specific temporal map. This improves mean top-5 retrieval accuracy from 43.87% to 49.05%, an 11.82% relative improvement.

Federated Video Domain Adaptation (FVDA) enables collaborative learning across distributed and non-IID video datasets while preserving privacy, but is under-explored due to challenges in aligning temporal information. We propose Multi-scalE Temporal domAin aLignment (METAL), a novel framework that leverages temporal information at multiple resolutions to improve cross-domain video action recognition with only model parameter transfers. METAL trains per-scale transformer encoders on source-clients, then performs independent knowledge voting at each temporal scale to generate robust pseudo-labels on the target-server. A novel $L_2$ variance penalty enforces cross-scale consistency during scale-based knowledge distillation, preventing a singular dominant scale. The late fusion aggregates features across different scales, where the fusion head is trained via knowledge distillation using confidence-weighted aggregation of scale-wise predictions, enabling the model to effectively exploit complementary temporal information for final predictions. Experiments on Epic-Kitchens-55 and Daily-DA demonstrate state-of-the-art performances, with gains up to 28.47% over current FDA methods. Ablation studies prove that multi-scale distillation and scale coordination are critical for effective temporal knowledge transfer.

Unsupervised time-series domain adaptation (DA) addresses the challenge of transferring a classifier from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain under distribution shifts induced by different users, sensors, devices, acquisition conditions, or temporal dynamics. Existing methods typically mitigate this shift by aligning marginal feature distributions through adversarial training, optimal transport, or moment-based discrepancies. In this paper, we propose Class-Conditional Path Distribution Alignment (CPDA), a non-adversarial discrepancy-based framework that aligns source and target class-conditional latent path distributions rather than only global feature marginals. CPDA introduces a composite signature-spectral kernel that jointly captures pooled semantic features, temporal path structure, frequency-domain information, and low-rank path-signature dynamics, while using source labels and target soft pseudo-labels to perform class-preserving alignment. We further provide a theoretical analysis showing that CPDA defines a valid kernel discrepancy, admits existing moment-matching methods as restricted cases, and yields a class-conditional target-risk bound. Extensive experiments with CNN, ResNet18, and TCN backbones on 13 different time-series DA benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of CPDA against 30 discrepancy, adversarial, and pseudo-labeling baselines.

Deep-learning-based climate downscaling aims to learn relationships from historical low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) climate data to generate HR climate projections. However, this setting faces a temporal out-of-distribution (OOD) challenge: models trained on historical data are commonly applied to future projections whose distributions may differ substantially from the training period. This study investigates temporal OOD shift for daily temperature downscaling over the Continental United States using paired LR-HR model simulations. We propose a temporal domain-adaptive downscaling framework that combines supervised HR reconstruction on historical data with domain alignment between historical and future climate distributions. Experiments across future validation periods show that the proposed domain-adaptive model consistently outperforms statistical and deep-learning-based bias-correction methods, with the largest gains occurring when the temporal distribution shift is strongest. Spatial analyses indicate stronger improvements over high-elevation and topographically complex regions, along with higher spatiotemporal correlation with the HR target. The extreme analysis shows that domain adaptation also reduces upper-tail temperature bias relative to the non-adaptive model. These results demonstrate that temporal domain adaptation can improve the robustness of HR climate projections under non-stationary climate conditions.

The goal of source-free domain adaptation (SFDA) for time-series data is to transfer knowledge from a pre-trained source model to an unlabeled target domain without requiring access to source data, while addressing feature shift and temporal drift inherent in the signals. Although existing approaches have explored temporal dynamics in unsupervised source-free adaptation, they largely overlook spectral shifts in time-series data. Towards this end, we propose a novel approach termed temporal-Spectral Alignment with Frequency Adaptation (SAFA) for source-free time-series domain adaptation. Specifically, we first model the source domain at multiple scales by jointly capturing temporal dependencies and spectral characteristics. To adapt time-series data in the target domain, we introduce a trainable frequency adaptation module that modulates the phase and amplitude of target signals in the frequency domain to align them with the source distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the efficacy and robustness of SAFA.

Bike-sharing models trained on historical station-hour data may degrade when deployed in later years because travel patterns change over time. This paper studies March Citi Bike demand prediction from 2021 to 2026 as a temporal domain adaptation problem and proposes Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework. The method fits a target-domain station-time anchor with a small labeled target subset, transfers residual rather than raw demand, applies a deterministic label-preserving residual feature generator, and trims high-cost transport matches before training the final residual predictor. Experiments compare Gen-ROTDA with anchor-only, source-only, target-only, fine-tuning, MMD adaptation, Sinkhorn OTDA, ROTDA, and Gen-OTDA. Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE on the main 2025 to 2026 task and is the best OT-family method on average across multi-year tasks, although fine-tuning and MMD adaptation remain strong overall baselines. Under abnormal target-unlabeled records, Gen-ROTDA is much more stable than non-robust OT variants, suggesting that robust transport is useful for noisy temporal transfer in bike-sharing demand prediction.

Tokenizer fertility varies 1.6x across foundation models on Ukrainian legal text, yet this cost-critical dimension is absent from model selection practice. We benchmark seven models from five providers on 273 validated court decisions from Ukraine's state registry (EDRSR), measuring tokenizer fertility and zero-shot performance on three tasks. Four findings emerge. (1) Qwen 3 models consume 60% more tokens than Llama-family models on identical input, making tokenizer analysis a prerequisite for cost-efficient deployment. (2) NVIDIA Nemotron Super 3 (120B) achieves the highest composite score (83.1), outperforming Mistral Large 3 (5.6x more total parameters) at one-third the API cost model scale is a poor proxy for domain performance. (3) Few-shot prompting degrades performance by up to 26 percentage points; stratified and prompt-sensitivity ablations confirm this is intrinsic to Ukrainian-language demonstrations, not an artifact of example selection. (4) A cross-temporal generalization experiment reveals that classifiers trained on pre-war court ecisions (2008-2013) lose 27.9 percentage points when applied to full-scale invasion era decisions (2022-2026), with a pronounced forward-backward asymmetry: newer models transfer backward (+14.6 pp above forward transfer), but older models fail catastrophically on wartime legal language. For practitioners: tokenizer analysis should precede model selection, and zero-shot is a more reliable default than few-shot for morphologically rich languages. To support reproducibility and address the absence of Ukrainian from legal NLP benchmarks, we release a public dataset of 14,452 court decisions spanning 2008-2026, annotated with seven outcome labels across three temporal epochs that capture the impact of armed conflict on judicial proceedings.

Time introduces fundamental challenges in model development and deployment: models are usually trained on historical data while deployed on future data where semantic distributions and domain knowledge may evolve. Unfortunately, existing studies either overlook temporal shifts or hardly capture rich shifting patterns of both semantic and knowledge. We develop Knowledge-driven Augmentation and Retrieval for Integrative Temporal Adaptation (KARITA) to capture diverse temporal shifts (e.g., uncertainty and feature shift), construct and integrate rich knowledge sources (e.g., medical ontology like MeSH), and leverage shifting insights for selecting-retrieval augmented learning. We evaluate KARITA on classification tasks across multiple domains, clinical, legal, and scientific corpora, demonstrating consistent improvements across multiple domains with temporal adaptation. Our results show that knowledge integration can be more critical and effective in temporal augmentation and learning.

Camera traps are vital for large-scale biodiversity monitoring, yet accurate automated analysis remains challenging due to diverse deployment environments. While the computer vision community has mostly framed this challenge as cross-domain generalization, this perspective overlooks a primary challenge faced by ecological practitioners: maintaining reliable recognition at the fixed site over time, where the dynamic nature of ecosystems introduces profound temporal shifts in both background and animal distributions. To bridge this gap, we present the first unified study of camera-trap species recognition over time. We introduce a realistic benchmark comprising 546 camera traps with a streaming protocol that evaluates models over chronologically ordered intervals. Our end-user-centric study yields four key findings. (1) Biological foundation models (e.g., BioCLIP 2) underperform at numerous sites even in initial intervals, underscoring the necessity of site-specific adaptation. (2) Adaptation is challenging under realistic evaluation: when models are updated using past data and evaluated on future intervals (mirrors real deployment lifecycles), naive adaptation can even degrade below zero-shot performance. (3) We identify two drivers of this difficulty: severe class imbalance and pronounced temporal shift in both species distribution and backgrounds between consecutive intervals. (4) We find that effective integration of model-update and post-processing techniques can largely improve accuracy, though a gap from the upper bounds remains. Finally, we highlight critical open questions, such as predicting when zero-shot models will succeed at a new site and determining whether/when model updates are necessary. Our benchmark and analysis provide actionable deployment guidelines for ecological practitioners while establishing new directions for future research in vision and machine learning.

This paper addresses domain adaptation in graph-structured data under chronological splits. We consider transductive semi-supervised node classification (SSNC), in which labels of historical nodes are used to predict labels of more recent nodes. Temporal dependencies in graph connectivity induce distribution shifts across time, often degrading the performance of models trained on past nodes. Despite its practical relevance, domain adaptation under chronological graph splits remains relatively underexplored. We propose Symmetric Temporal Averaging Message Passing (STAMP), a timestamp-balanced operator that replaces standard neighborhood aggregation with temporally aligned propagation. We call its specialized variant for the heterogeneous ogbn-mag dataset STAMP-mag, reserving STAMP for the general formulation. By balancing messages across timestamps, STAMP enforces first-moment invariance across temporal domains while remaining scalable and easy to implement. Unlike many existing domain adaptation methods, whose assumptions are difficult to verify on graphs, STAMP relies on transparent, practically checkable conditions and is supported by theoretical analysis. Empirically, STAMP and STAMP-mag improve accuracy across all evaluated temporal graph benchmarks. STAMP achieves state-of-the-art performance on ogbn-arxiv, while STAMP-mag does so on ogbn-mag. For temporal-split Pokec, where no established benchmark exists, applying STAMP to the state-of-the-art model for the original dataset consistently improves performance under our chronological split. These results demonstrate that timestamp-balanced propagation is an effective and practical approach to mitigating temporal distribution shift in graph learning.