Trajectory Prediction

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Overview

Trajectory prediction estimates future paths from past motion and cues such as maps, goals, other agents, and environmental conditions. Common methods include Transformers, graph neural networks, and state-space models, alongside probabilistic approaches such as variational autoencoders, diffusion, and flow matching that represent multiple possible futures. Physics-based models, retrieval, and language or vision-language models are also used, especially when forecasts must support planning or work across domains. A central challenge is balancing accuracy and efficient inference with calibrated uncertainty, realistic and safe behavior, and reliable performance under distribution shifts; displacement benchmarks alone may not capture success in closed-loop settings.

Latest papers

CardsList

187 papers17 papers in the last four weeks, down 15% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Rectify, Don't Regret: On-Policy Closed-Loop Training for Multimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Mar 24, 2026Harsh Yadav, Christian Bohn, Tobias MeisenTrajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    University of Wuppertal

  2. TrajLoom: Dense Future Trajectory Generation from Video

    Mar 23, 2026Zewei Zhang, Jia Jun Cheng Xian, Kaiwen Liu +4Trajectory PredictionVideo Prediction

    McMaster University · University of British Columbia · Vector Institute +2

  3. ThinkJEPA: Empowering Latent World Models with Large Vision-Language Reasoning Model

    Mar 23, 2026Haichao Zhang, Yijiang Li, Shwai He +5Latent World ModelsTrajectory Prediction

    Northeastern University · University of California San Diego · University of Maryland +2

  4. Single-Eye View: Monocular Real-time Perception Package for Autonomous Driving

    Mar 22, 2026Haixi Zhang, Aiyinsi Zuo, Zirui Li +3Autonomous Driving PerceptionTrajectory Prediction

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA · Faculty of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA

  5. SutureFormer: Learning Surgical Trajectories via Goal-conditioned Offline RL in Pixel Space

    Mar 19, 2026Huanrong Liu, Chunlin Tian, Tongyu Jia +8Offline RLTrajectory Prediction

    Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau, China · University of Macau Advanced Research Institute in Hengqin, Zhuhai, China · Senior Department of Urology, The Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China +4

  6. ASCENT: Transformer-Based Aircraft Trajectory Prediction in Non-Towered Terminal Airspace

    Mar 17, 2026Alexander Prutsch, David Schinagl, Horst PosseggerTrajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Institute of Visual Computing, Graz University of Technology, Austria

  7. PanguMotion: Continuous Driving Motion Forecasting with Pangu Transformers

    Mar 17, 2026Quanhao Ren, Yicheng Li, Nan SongTrajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    School of Data Science, Fudan University

  8. A Comparative Study of Demonstration Selection for Practical Large Language Models-based Next POI Prediction

    Mar 16, 2026Ryo Nishida, Masayuki Kawarada, Tatsuya Ishigaki +2In-Context LearningLarge Language Model-Based Recommendation

    National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan

  9. TrajMamba: An Ego-Motion-Guided Mamba Model for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction from an Egocentric Perspective

    Mar 16, 2026Yusheng Peng, Gaofeng Zhang, Liping ZhengPedestrian Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China · School of Software, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China

  10. Latent Dynamics-Aware OOD Monitoring for Trajectory Prediction with Provable Guarantees

    Mar 15, 2026Tongfei Guo, Lili SuOOD DetectionChange-Point Detection

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

  11. WestWorld: A Knowledge-Encoded Scalable Trajectory World Model for Diverse Robotic Systems

    Mar 15, 2026Yuchen Wang, Jiangtao Kong, Sizhe Wei +6Robot Motion PredictionWorld Models for Robotics

    William & Mary · Georgia Institute of Technology · Carnegie Mellon University +2

  12. Evaluating randomized smoothing as a defense against adversarial attacks in trajectory prediction

    Mar 11, 2026Julian F. Schumann, Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Baymler Mathiesen +3Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionAdversarial Robustness

    Department of Cognitive Robotics, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands · Delft Center for Systems and Control, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands

  13. Recover to Predict: Progressive Retrospective Learning for Variable-Length Trajectory Prediction

    Mar 11, 2026Hao Zhou, Lu Qi, Jason Li +5Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    Great Bay University · Tsinghua SIGS · Wuhan University +3

  14. Rethinking Gaussian Trajectory Predictors: Calibrated Uncertainty for Safe Planning

    Mar 11, 2026Fatemeh Cheraghi Pouria, Mahsa Golchoubian, Katherine Driggs-CampbellPedestrian Trajectory PredictionSafe Motion Planning

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820 USA · Department of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

  15. MetaDAT: Generalizable Trajectory Prediction via Meta Pre-training and Data-Adaptive Test-Time Updating

    Mar 10, 2026Yuning Wang, Pu Zhang, Yuan He +2Adaptive Learning RateTrajectory Prediction

    State Key Laboratory of Human-Machine Hybrid Augmented Intelligence, IAIR, Xi’an Jiaotong University, China · KargoBot, China

  16. Context-free Self-Conditioned GAN for Trajectory Forecasting

    Mar 9, 2026Tiago Rodrigues de Almeida, Eduardo Gutierrez Maestro, Oscar Martinez MozosTrajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    AASS, Örebro University, Sweden

  17. AutoTraces: Autoregressive Trajectory Forecasting via Multimodal Large Language Models

    Mar 9, 2026Teng Wang, Yanting Lu, Ruize WangRobot Motion PredictionTrajectory Prediction

  18. A prior information informed learning architecture for flying trajectory prediction

    Mar 6, 2026Xianda Huang, Zidong Han, Ruibo Jin +4Trajectory PredictionTransformer

    Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China · Chinese University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China

  19. TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Driving

    Mar 6, 2026Mingyu Fan, Yi Liu, Hao Zhou +3Trajectory ReconstructionTrajectory Prediction

    College of Information and Intelligent Science, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 China. · School of Computing and Information Technology, Great Bay Institute for Advanced Study/Great Bay University, Dongguan, China, and also with the Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China. · Chongqing Chang’an Technology Co., Ltd, Chongqing 401120 China. +1

  20. ELLIPSE: Evidential Learning for Robust Waypoints and Uncertainties

    Mar 4, 2026Zihao Dong, Chanyoung Chung, Dong-Ki Kim +5Robot Imitation LearningTrajectory Prediction

    FieldAI. · Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

  21. SimpliHuMoN: Simplifying Human Motion Prediction

    Mar 4, 2026Aadya Agrawal, Alexander SchwingHuman Motion PredictionHuman Trajectory Prediction

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA

  22. ShipTraj-R1: Reinforcing Ship Trajectory Prediction in Large Language Models via Group Relative Policy Optimization

    Mar 3, 2026Yang Zhan, Yunhao Li, Zhang Chao +2Vessel Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    School of Artificial Intelligence, Optics, and Electronics (iOPEN), Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China · Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China · State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

  23. Event-Only Drone Trajectory Forecasting with RPM-Modulated Kalman Filtering

    Mar 2, 2026Hari Prasanth S. M., Pejman Habibiroudkenar, Eerik Alamikkotervo +2Trajectory PredictionKalman Filtering

    Department of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Aalto University, 02150 Espoo, Finland

  24. Streaming Real-Time Trajectory Prediction Using Endpoint-Aware Modeling

    Mar 2, 2026Alexander Prutsch, David Schinagl, Horst PosseggerTrajectory PredictionMulti-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    Institute of Visual Computing, Graz University of Technology

  25. FoSS: Modeling Long Range Dependencies and Multimodal Uncertainty in Trajectory Prediction via Fourier State Space Integration

    Mar 1, 2026Yizhou Huang, Gengze Jiang, Yihua Cheng +1Trajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    Brunel University of London · University of Birmingham

  26. Fast Confidence-Aware Human Prediction via Hardware-accelerated Bayesian Inference for Safe Robot Navigation

    Mar 1, 2026Michael Lu, Minh Bui, Xubo Lyu +1Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionHuman Motion Prediction

    School of Computing Science, Simon Fraser University, Canada

  27. Robust Human Trajectory Prediction via Self-Supervised Skeleton Representation Learning

    Feb 26, 2026Taishu Arashima, Hiroshi Kera, Kazuhiko KawamotoHuman Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Chiba University

  28. Uncertainty-Aware Diffusion Model for Multimodal Highway Trajectory Prediction via DDIM Sampling

    Feb 24, 2026Marion Neumeier, Niklas Roßberg, Michael Botsch +1Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt, 85049 Ingolstadt, Germany · Technische Universität München, 80333 München, Germany

  29. ParkDiffusion++: Ego Intention Conditioned Joint Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction for Automated Parking using Diffusion Models

    Feb 24, 2026Jiarong Wei, Anna Rehr, Christian Feist +1Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Germany. · CARIAD SE, Germany.

  30. HiMAP: History-aware Map-occupancy Prediction with Fallback

    Feb 19, 2026Yiming Xu, Yi Yang, Hao Cheng +1Trajectory PredictionMulti-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    Institute of Cartography and Geoinformatics, Leibniz University Hannover, Appelstr. 9a, 30167 Hannover, Germany · Institute of Information Processing, Leibniz University Hannover, Schneiderberg 32, 30167 Hannover, Germany · Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, 7522 NH Enschede, The Netherlands