Vehicle Trajectory Prediction

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate ($\mathrm{TSR}_{0.5}$), defined as the fraction of ground-truth agents with final displacement error below 0.5 m. On the real-world V2V4Real dataset, collaborative prediction improves the success rate by $1.69\%$ and $1.22\%$ for both intelligent vehicles, respectively, compared with individual forecasting.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities and attracted increasing research attention in the field of autonomous driving (AD). However, safe application of LLMs on AD perception and prediction still requires a thorough understanding of both the dynamic traffic agents and the static road infrastructure. To this end, this study introduces a framework to evaluate the capability of LLMs in understanding the behaviors of dynamic traffic agents and the topology of road networks. The framework leverages frozen LLMs as the reasoning engine, employing a traffic encoder to extract spatial-level scene features from observed trajectories of agents, while a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encodes the local high-definition (HD) maps. To assess the intrinsic reasoning ability of LLMs, the extracted scene features are then transformed into LLM-compatible tokens via a reprogramming adapter. By residing the prediction burden with the LLMs, a simpler linear decoder is applied to output future trajectories. The framework enables a quantitative analysis of the influence of multi-modal information, especially the impact of map semantics on trajectory prediction accuracy, and allows seamless integration of frozen LLMs with minimal adaptation, thereby demonstrating strong generalizability across diverse LLM architectures and providing a unified platform for model evaluation.

Vehicle trajectory prediction is central to highway perception, but deployment on roadside edge devices necessitates bounded, deterministic end-to-end latency. We present EdgeVTP, an embedded-first trajectory predictor that combines interaction-aware graph modeling with a lightweight transformer backbone and a one-shot curve decoder. By predicting future motion as compact curve parameters (anchored at the last observed position) rather than horizon-scaled autoregressive waypoints, EdgeVTP reduces decoding overhead while producing smooth trajectories. To keep runtime predictable in crowded scenes, we explicitly bound interaction complexity via a locality graph with a hard neighbor cap. Across three highway benchmarks and two Jetson-class platforms, EdgeVTP achieves the lowest measured end-to-end latency under a protocol that includes graph construction and post-processing, while attaining state-of-the-art (SotA) prediction accuracy on two of the three datasets and competitive error on other benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/SeungjinStevenKim/EdgeVTP.

Bridging the past to the future, connecting agents both spatially and temporally, lies at the core of the trajectory prediction task. Despite great efforts, it remains challenging to explicitly learn and predict latencies, i.e., response intervals or temporal delays with which agents respond to various trajectory-changing events and adjust their future paths, whether on their own or interactively. Different agents may exhibit distinct latency preferences for noticing, processing, and reacting to a specific trajectory-changing event. The lack of consideration of such latencies may undermine the temporal continuity of forecasting systems, leading to implausible or unintended trajectories. Inspired by reverberation in acoustics, we propose a new reverberation transform and the corresponding Reverberation (Rev for short) trajectory prediction model, which predicts both individual latency preferences and their stochastic variations accordingly, by using two explicit and learnable reverberation kernels, enabling latency-conditioned and controllable trajectory prediction under both non-interactive and social latencies. Experiments on multiple datasets, whether of pedestrians or vehicles, demonstrate that Rev achieves competitive accuracy while revealing interpretable latency dynamics across agents and scenarios. Qualitative analyses further verify the properties of the reverberation transform, highlighting its potential as a general latency modeling approach.

Trajectory prediction, as a critical component of autonomous driving systems, has attracted the attention of many researchers. Existing prediction algorithms focus on extracting more detailed scene features or selecting more reasonable trajectory destinations. However, in the face of dynamic and evolving future movements of the target vehicle, these algorithms cannot provide a fine-grained and continuous description of future behaviors and lane constraints, which degrades the prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we present BLNet, a novel dualstream architecture that synergistically integrates behavioral intention recognition and lane constraint modeling through parallel attention mechanisms. The framework generates fine-grained behavior state queries (capturing spatial-temporal movement patterns) and lane queries (encoding lane topology constraints), supervised by two auxiliary losses, respectively. Subsequently, a two-stage decoder first produces trajectory proposals, then performs point-level refinement by jointly incorporating both the continuity of passed lanes and future motion features. Extensive experiments on two large datasets, nuScenes and Argoverse, show that our network exhibits significant performance gains over existing direct regression and goal-based algorithms.

Car-following behavior is fundamental to traffic flow theory, yet traditional models often fail to capture the stochasticity of naturalistic driving. This paper proposes an empirical probabilistic sampling approach to car-following modeling that bypasses conventional parametric assumptions. Under this approach, we introduce the Markov Chain Car-Following (MC-CF) model, which represents state transitions as a Markov process and predicts behavior by randomly sampling accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrates that MC-CF variants significantly outperform all physics-based baselines (IDM, Gipps, FVDM, and SIDM) across both one-step and open-loop trajectory prediction metrics, and remain competitive with modern data-driven baselines including neural network and Gaussian mixture model approaches. Zero-shot generalization on the Naturalistic Phoenix (PHX) dataset further confirms cross-domain transferability. Finally, microscopic ring road simulations validate the framework's scalability: by incrementally integrating unconstrained free-flow trajectories and high-speed freeway data (TGSIM) alongside a conservative inference strategy, the model substantially reduces collisions across most tested scenarios and successfully reproduces naturalistic and stochastic shockwave propagation, though crashes persist under severe shockwave conditions. Overall, the proposed MC-CF model provides a robust and scalable foundation for simulating population-level stochastic traffic behavior that requires no behavioral parameter calibration, making it well-suited for the data-rich future of intelligent transportation.