Video Prediction

Real-time robot control demands enough visual history to infer motion and task progress, but processing that history can delay action. We present Long-WAM, a model-system framework for scaling the context of causal world-action models under real-time control constraints. Our central finding is that access to history is not the same as using it: longer histories pay off far more when the video foundation is pretrained autoregressively (AR). We first learn causal prediction from robot and egocentric videos without action labels, then preserve this history-to-future structure during world-action adaptation. On RoboCasa GR-1, increasing context from 0.0 to 19.2 seconds raises success from 63.3% to 78.7%, whereas a bidirectionally pretrained initialization shows no net gain; robot-domain AR pretraining further raises peak success on GR-1 and LIBERO-Long. Long-WAM also achieves the best results among compared methods on LIBERO-Long, RoboTwin 2.0, and DOMINO. Streaming observation encoding, asynchronous execution, and hardware-specific acceleration enable deployment on RTX 5090, DGX Spark, and Jetson AGX Thor without dropping future prediction; on RTX 5090, each action chunk, including future-video latent prediction, takes 107.4 ms. Real-time deployment on Unitree G1 and YAM supports dynamic and long-horizon manipulation, including 95% success on dynamic cup stacking, where Pi0.5 and Fast-WAM succeed in none of 20 trials. As a memory-informed executor, Long-WAM also complements higher-level planning in composite tasks.

World action models (WAMs) have emerged as an important class of generalist robot policies, aiming to transfer video prediction priors to action learning. However, we find that existing WAMs frequently produce incorrect motion predictions in open-ended environment, leading to erroneous actions. We attribute this limitation to two factors: (1) base video models are not optimized for manipulation, and (2) naively incorporating action components into video models can substantially degrade their generalization capabilities. We introduce Video Prediction Policy 2 (VPP2), a WAM that enables strong zero-shot generalization in both video prediction and action generation. First, we curate a large-scale, diverse dataset of manipulation videos to continue pretraining the base video foundation model. We annotate video clips with detailed captions and perform \textit{event-level} video pretraining to promote generalization across open-ended manipulation tasks. Second, we post-train and distill the video model into a single-step visual planner with fixed prediction horizon. Finally, we introduce action module via a mixture-of-transformers (MoT) architecture to learn implicit inverse dynamics model. Experiments demonstrate three key results: (1) VPP2-14B outperforms Cosmos3-64B by 11.0% points in video prediction instruction-following success rate on open-ended tasks; (2) VPP2 surpasses the strongest baseline by 18.5% points in success rate on real-world zero-shot ALOHA manipulation tasks; and (3) following benchmark-specific post-training, VPP2 achieves the highest success rates among evaluated methods on the challenging LIBERO-Pro, LIBERO-OOD, and RoboDojo benchmarks.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in video understanding, yet their reliance on retrospective summarization and text-centric priors often limits their ability to bridge unobserved causal transitions when applied to Video Event Prediction (VEP). To address this, we propose VepAgent, an agentic framework that integrates causal-transition reasoning with tool-augmented reinforcement learning (RL) for robust VEP. Unlike prior methods that passively project future trajectories from historical dependencies, our approach explicitly models the logical progression from terminal observed states to future events. Specifically, we first construct futurebench-4K, a high-quality chain-of-thought dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) that effectively bridges the causal-logic gap by structuring the deduction of unobserved intermediate states. Subsequently, we develop a diagnostic tool library integrating state tracking, frame retrieval, and region magnification, enabling the agent to dynamically augment reasoning with external tools to recover missing spatio-temporal evidence and resolve visual ambiguities during inference. Moreover, we propose a composite reward mechanism that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy, causal coherence, and reliable prior, compelling the agent to rely on genuine visual grounding rather than superficial textual similarities. Extensive evaluations on FutureBench and NEPBench datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming larger MLLMs and validating the empirical effectiveness of our agentic, future-oriented reasoning paradigm.

We introduce CNP-Flow, a flow matching framework for temporal generation that learns conditional source distributions through flow reversal. Whereas standard conditional flow matching (FM) incorporates conditioning through the vector field and draws source samples from a standard Gaussian, CNP-Flow uses a conditional noise predictor (CNP) to produce an isotropic Gaussian source for each temporal condition. The CNP is supervised by source samples obtained through flow reversal, which maps observed targets backward through a pretrained FM model. A three-stage pipeline pretrains the FM model, trains the CNP, and fine-tunes the FM model using the learned source distribution, while preserving the FM backbone architecture. Across video prediction, video interpolation, and 7-DoF Franka robot motion planning, CNP-Flow consistently improves generation quality. It also matches baseline performance with fewer function evaluations. Project page: https://embodiedai-ntu.github.io/cnpflow

Predicting the future evolution of a scene is a fundamental capability for world modeling. Recent work has shown that operating in the feature space of Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) yields semantically rich representations that support diverse future scene understanding tasks. However, existing approaches rely on two-stage pipelines, where VFM features are first compressed using fixed dimensionality reduction (e.g., PCA) or independently trained autoencoders, and a separate predictor is trained on top of the resulting frozen latent space. This decoupling between representation learning and temporal prediction, as well as approaches that apply predictors directly on raw VFM features, provides no guarantee that the latent space is structured for predictable dynamics. In this work, we propose Latent-Foresight, an end-to-end framework that jointly learns a latent tokenizer and a flow-based generative dynamics model, explicitly shaping the representation to support temporal predictability. To enable stable joint optimization, we introduce several key design choices that prevent latent collapse and align reconstruction with generative objectives. Extensive experiments show that our approach learns more temporally coherent latent representations and consistently outperforms two-stage baselines across multiple future scene understanding tasks and prediction horizons, while eliminating separate training stages, including during high-resolution adaptation. We provide the implementation code and model weights at https://github.com/Sta8is/Latent-Foresight

We introduce LHFM, a geometric framework for learning image dynamics. Drawing on structures central to classical mechanics, symplectic geometry, and geometric quantization, LHFM represents each image as an exact Lagrangian graph and models its evolution through image-dependent Hamiltonian flows, which yield a transport--source parameterization of image velocities. Our primary application is deterministic video prediction: LHFM-V is a recurrent model that advances frames by integrating predicted transport and source fields, and achieves the lowest reported FLOP count among the compared recurrent models with similar prediction accuracy. The image variant, LHFM-I, shows that the same construction is compatible with flow matching: in a matched experiment, it attains a lower FID than the flow-matching baseline.

Modeling spatiotemporal coupling is a key challenge in building physical intelligence across scales, from microscopic to macroscopic. Existing models capture such structure broadly through physics-motivated dynamical formulations or learning-motivated architectures. The former provide stronger priors but may constrain flexibility, whereas the latter are more flexible but leave the spatiotemporal coupling largely implicit. We therefore seek an approach that combines flexible learning with an explicit geometric bias for jointly modeling time and space. To this end, we propose Minkowski Positional Encoding (MinkowskiPE), which uses joint temporal and spatial coordinates to parameterize Lorentz transformations applied to query and key features. With MinkowskiPE, the query-key attention score depends on position only through the relative spacetime displacement between the two tokens and is therefore invariant to global translation of the coordinates. This paradigm retains the standard dot-product attention interface and remains compatible with efficient attention implementations. We evaluate MinkowskiPE on microscopic molecular dynamics and macroscopic video prediction tasks, achieving the best results on all nine multi-trajectory molecular evaluations and reducing KTH video-prediction MSE by 9.9% relative to the best baseline while using roughly one-tenth as many parameters.

Embodied world models learn to predict future physical dynamics from visual observations and control signals, where physical knowledge is implicitly entangled within latent representations. We introduce CausalWM, a 16B embodied world model that performs explicit causal chain-of-thought reasoning before future video prediction. CausalWM organizes useful variables into a reasoning trajectory, allowing the model to progressively capture causal dependencies underlying physical evolution. To train CausalWM, we collect 31K hours embodied data and develop a three-stage paradigm consisting of large-scale video pre-training, causal CoT mid-training, and multi-objective RL post-training. Despite using only a limited set of supervised CoT variables, CausalWM exhibits emergent in-context learning capabilities, enabling contextual visual feature guidance and efficient few-step generation. CausalWM achieves state-of-the-art performance across language-conditioned, action-conditioned, single-view and multi-view benchmarks, including Top-1 performance on TriWorldBench leaderboard.

Large video models have exhibited impressive performance on a wide range of visual question answering tasks, owing to the rise of powerful, pretrained text and vision encoders. The usefulness of such models have also been demonstrated on a wide range of benchmarks, with an important caveat - the dominant approach in these benchmarks evaluates multiple choice reasoning via text options. This is a natural way to test text-based reasoning in these models, and has led to significant insights regarding model behavior in the community. In this work, we ask a different question - what happens when the evaluation modality is visual, rather than text? We introduce three new vision-centric evaluation benchmarks in temporal frame retrieval, video future prediction, and causal memory distortion, all designed around evaluating visual understanding capabilities in large video models. Our approach complements the existing approaches to evaluate video understanding in frontier models. We show that current frontier models exhibit significant weakness when attempting to reason through visual queries, rather than text. We conclude with an extended analysis section that provides pointers for future improvements in visual understanding for large video models.

Video generators build long videos by composing shorter parts, either by generating segments one after another or by autoregressively extending chunks. Each new part usually depends on memories of historical observations, such as recent frames, selected key frames, memory banks, or cached features. These memories preserve visible evidence from the past, but current generators do not reliably turn such evidence into a world-state interface: what holds in the video world after previous actions and how it should change under the next prompt. A past frame remains valid history, but it may not describe the state needed by the next segment; some states must instead be inferred from occluded or implicit changes rather than copied from a directly observed frame. This creates a simple but overlooked question for video continuation: given a previous video, its prompt, and a new prompt, can a model generate a continuation that reflects the state determined by both the historical video and the new prompt? To answer this question, we introduce Statebench, a benchmark that targets this gap by testing continuations over three state categories: past-visible states, occluded-process states, and complex-transition states. We further propose Stateagent, which explicitly maintains an entity-state representation, updates it under the new prompt, grounds the predicted post-action state as a future end frame, and renders the next video. Experiments show that our method improves controlled video continuation by raising the all-case state score (SCS-All) from 45.2 to 69.3, and also benefits story generation at the one-minute scale. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/StateAgent.

Long-horizon future-frame prediction is important for autonomous driving, traffic surveillance, and intelligent transportation systems, yet remains challenging due to temporal ghosting, geometry drift, and inconsistent object motion. Recent latent video diffusion models have achieved impressive visual quality, but directly applying them to structured traffic scenes often leads to unstable geometry and degraded temporal coherence over extended horizons. We present a training-free inference framework that stabilizes reliable static structure in pretrained video predictions through multi-frame temporal context and view-conditioned routing. For front-camera videos, our method refines generated futures with a multi-frame depth-layered renderer that projects static geometry from observed history frames while preserving dynamic regions from the generative base model. For heterogeneous traffic views, a frozen vision-language model infers a coarse camera group from the observed clip and selects a specialized motion-based predictor. The framework requires neither retraining nor fine-tuning of the underlying video model and can be applied directly to pretrained generators. We validate the proposed framework on the AI City Challenge Track 5 benchmark, where our final system achieves competitive performance among the top-ranked teams. These results demonstrate that geometry-aware inference-time refinement and view-conditioned hybrid inference can improve static-geometry stability and low-level structural fidelity without changing the original model architecture.

Predictive video models have emerged as promising world models by learning latent visual dynamics from large-scale video. Yet these models remain challenged by physical events under occlusion, where later predictions may depend on object evidence that is no longer available in the current view. Addressing this challenge requires historical evidence not only to be preserved but also to remain accessible when it becomes relevant to a subsequent prediction. Existing approaches mainly enlarge the temporal context, cache generic video features, or impose explicit object-centric states, thereby improving the capacity or structure of retained history. However, they do not directly address how relevant historical evidence can be selectively retrieved and integrated into a pretrained predictor without interfering with its native latent workspace. Accordingly, we introduce HERA (Historical Evidence Routing Adapter), a framework for routing retained historical evidence into a frozen latent predictor, and instantiate it with Register-Routed Patch Memory (RRPM), a lightweight adapter comprising a Structured Memory Bank, Memory Registers, and Workspace Registers. On the IntPhys2 Main split, HERA with RRPM improves the pairwise AvgSurprise accuracy of V-JEPA 2-G from 52.57% to 54.35%. Subgroup analysis shows particularly strong improvements on fixed-camera continuity, from 46.15% to 57.69%, and fixed-camera immutability, from 46.15% to 63.46%. These results support historical evidence routing as a practical adaptation strategy for physical prediction in latent world models.

Acting in a physical scene requires knowing its real later state, not a plausible one. Current evaluations often accept words or a realistic-looking image, so the predicted state is never checked against the true one. We introduce DynaPix (Dynamic Pixels), a benchmark that makes prediction checkable. Given a video clip that stops before a key event and a question about a later moment, a model must pick the true future image from close candidates or a large gallery. The scenes come from a physics simulator, so the correct image and its time are known exactly and the wrong options are deliberately similar. Models often succeed when a visible event marks the target moment, but are near chance when only elapsed time marks it. Gallery search is harder still, as the true image rarely ranks first. People handle the elapsed-time items well, so the difficulty lies with the models, not the questions. Training on scene accounts drawn from the simulator's true record, not a teacher's guess, repairs much of this but not the longer elapsed time case. DynaPix thus exposes a temporal-anchoring gap: models attach a prediction to an event far better than to time itself.

Action-conditioned world models aim to predict how visual environments evolve under an agent's actions. Yet future frames are often highly predictable from visual inertia and recurring motion patterns alone. This creates a shortcut: models can fit the data by exploiting statistical biases without making their visible dynamics meaningfully depend on the action. As a result, different actions may produce similar futures, while motion may persist even under zero action. The key question is how to reduce reliance on statistical shortcuts from dominating action-conditioned prediction. We argue that action control requires more than injecting action features; it requires enforcing consistency under counterfactual changes to actions and observations. Based on this insight, we introduce CoCo, a Counterfactual Consistency framework to enhance action controllability through two complementary constraints. Multi-step counterfactual consistency constrains reference, inverse-action, and zero-action rollouts, while action-spatial counterfactual consistency enforces consistent predictions under mirrored scenes and transformed actions. Together, they reduce reliance on statistical shortcuts from substituting for action-dependent dynamics. We further introduce Action Response Consistency (ARC) and Drift Energy (DE) to assess action controllability, together with Mini-SSMB for same-state, multi-action counterfactual evaluation. On Mini-SSMB, our full model achieved ARC_inv of 0.412 and ARC_ref of 0.483, while reducing DE by 17.07% relative to the baseline. On VP2 visual planning, it achieves the highest average success rate among SOTA models, at 73.1%. Experiments on BAIR and RoboNet further show that these gains preserve video prediction quality and transfer across model settings.

We introduce Predictive State Retrieval (PSR), a task in which a model observes a short video prefix and a temporal question about an object's future state, then retrieves instances from other videos or images that depict that state. Unlike action anticipation, which predicts a label, moment retrieval, which localizes an observed event within a video, or video generation, which synthesizes pixels, PSR combines anticipation with cross-instance retrieval across multiple temporal horizons. We construct a benchmark from four datasets with graded, human-validated ground truth, difficulty tiers, and an oracle ceiling. We also propose LFTR, a lightweight retriever with frozen encoders that predicts a question- and horizon-conditioned future latent and matches it in complementary semantic and visual spaces. A ceiling decomposition reveals a clear bottleneck: the true future state is highly retrievable once specified, whereas every predictor we evaluate, including a large multimodal language model with access to the prefix frames, remains far below the oracle. Thus, forecasting rather than perception is the central learnable challenge. LFTR narrows this gap at substantially lower inference cost, and ablations attribute its gains to cross-space fusion and hard-negative training rather than latent rollout. We release the benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts.

Visual world models typically learn future dynamics from a single observation stream, limiting their ability to model cooperative systems with multiple independently moving observers. We investigate this challenge in Mother--Child endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), where two flexible scopes provide complementary yet role-dependent views without a calibrated stereo relationship. Unlike conventional multi-view fusion that assumes symmetric information exchange, we formulate \textbf{role-asymmetric dual-scope future prediction}, where cross-view evidence is selectively transferred according to the prediction target and its underlying spatial requirements. We propose \textbf{CrossScope}, a dual-stream surgical world model that preserves view-specific experts while enabling target-specific evidence routing through geometry-guided residual interactions. CrossScope learns two complementary communication directions: geometric motion cues from the Mother view guide Child-view future dynamics, while pose-aligned Child appearance supports Mother-view prediction only when valid spatial correspondence is established. This design allows each scope to contribute task-relevant evidence without compromising its view-specific representation. To evaluate this problem, we establish a paired dual-scope benchmark comprising synchronized phantom and real-world ERCP episodes, with evaluations assessing visual fidelity, structural preservation, target localization, and motion consistency. Experiments demonstrate that CrossScope consistently outperforms strong surgical video generation baselines, validating the importance of role-aware evidence routing for multi-observer visual world modeling.

End-to-end driving requires a coherent understanding of future scenes, yet existing methods model these scenes using task-specific heads and output formats, with limited scalability. Can video generation instead provide a shared predictor? We introduce SUV, a unified end-to-end driving framework that casts future Scene Understanding as Video generation using a pretrained video foundation model. SUV models future appearance, semantics, relative depth, and instance-level dynamics as video streams with a shared video expert, without stream-specific visual prediction heads. Through joint video-action attention, the action expert attends to the latent representations of all future streams and generates the ego trajectory. Experiments show that SUV directly predicts all four future streams, while controlled ablations show that structured future supervision and direct future-stream access yield higher trajectory planning scores. With only a single front camera and no candidate-trajectory selection, SUV outperforms a broad set of recent state-of-the-art methods on both NAVSIM-v2 splits, achieving 91.0 EPDMS on navtest and 36.9 on navhard. On the long-tail WOD-E2E benchmark, SUV achieves a competitive RFS of 7.94.

In the physical world we inhabit, space and time are fundamentally continuous. However, existing machine learning paradigms for world modeling are largely confined to discrete-time prediction, thereby exhibiting significant inefficiency in capturing the dynamics of physical world. We introduce Physical-Time Flow (PT-Flow), a novel approach that learns a continuous latent velocity field operating in physical time. Crucially, the underlying dynamics of sequential data are parameterized by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) embedded in a well-structured representation space. Under this paradigm, the prediction of future can be recast as temporal integration via an ODE solver in the compressed latent space. Building upon PT-Flow, we construct ODEWorld, a continuous-time latent world model that is both efficient and versatile. By extracting time-variant features and enforcing ODE properties on both the dynamical representation space and the latent velocity field, ODEWorld effectively addresses the long-standing representation collapse issue in latent world model literature. This also enables high-quality image reconstruction even after long-horizon prediction. Moreover, its continuous nature allows for arbitrary temporal resolution and even backward prediction, which is impossible for most discrete-time models. Lastly, ODEWorld can provide rich planning-oriented information to facilitate downstream policy learning. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that ODEWorld successfully reconciles planning-conducive dynamics abstraction with visual realism, excelling in both video generation and robotic control. Project page: https://odeworld.github.io/.

Recent autoregressive video diffusion methods are increasingly built upon Self Forcing, where the student is trained on histories produced by its own rollout rather than ground-truth video contexts. This reduces exposure bias, but the historical key-value cache is still used by future frames only as frozen rollout state. As a result, future losses cannot supervise how earlier generated latents should be written into more useful keys and values for later video-latent generation. We call this the historical context-gradient gap. We propose Self Gradient Forcing (SGF), a two-pass training strategy that restores this missing supervision signal without backpropagating through the full serial rollout. Pass 1 performs a no-gradient autoregressive rollout matching inference and, at a sampled denoising exit step, records both the self-generated context and the noisy latents fed to the model. Pass 2 performs parallel context-gradient reconstruction for the recorded exit step. The generated context is used as stop-gradient clean-latent input, while the model recomputes the context KV representations and future-to-context causal attention. Thus, SGF provides the missing memory-writing supervision within the native autoregressive training objective, using losses on future video latents to train the model to encode context into more effective causal memory. Across extensive long-horizon frame-wise and chunk-wise experiments under different initializations, SGF achieves stronger native long-video extrapolation than Self Forcing, especially in subject identity, background/layout consistency, and temporal stability. Remarkably, using only a 5-second training window, SGF can extrapolate to videos lasting several minutes. Code and models will be released to advance research on autoregressive video generation.

Recovering high-quality video from sparse event streams is a challenging task. Regression methods often blur textures, while existing generative models struggle with long-term stability. We propose LongE2V, a novel approach that leverages pre-trained video diffusion priors to jointly handle event-based video reconstruction, prediction, and frame interpolation. By fine-tuning a foundational video model, our approach achieves high data efficiency and superior perceptual quality. We introduce Autoregressive Unrolling and Adaptive Context Switching to mitigate temporal drift in extremely long sequences. We also propose Reencoding Alignment with Cross Residual Correction to ensure precise bidirectional consistency during frame interpolation. Furthermore, Event Voxel Density Augmentation ensures robustness across varying sensor resolutions. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate that LongE2V outperforms state-of-the-art methods across all three tasks, exhibiting exceptional temporal coherence and zero-shot generalization. Project page: https://cdfan0627.github.io/LongE2V-page/

We present PACR-Video, a parameter-efficient framework for multi-shot long video extrapolation that preserves recurring entities, scene structure, visual style, and causal progression without full generator fine-tuning. PACR-Video keeps a text-to-video diffusion transformer frozen and augments it with low-rank temporal adapters conditioned by learned shot-role prompt tokens. To maintain long-horizon coherence, it builds a recursive prompt bank that stores compact entity, location, action, and style prompts from previous shots, then routes them through adapter gates according to predicted narrative dependencies. A Shot-Local/Story-Global tuning objective combines next-shot reconstruction, cross-shot identity contrast, and prompt sparsity regularization, while an adapter composition schedule balances early-shot visual consistency with later-shot event progression and viewpoint change. Across six multi-shot and long-video benchmarks, PACR-Video outperforms text-to-video, tuning-based, memory-augmented, streaming, and recursive-context baselines on distributional quality, semantic alignment, identity consistency, temporal smoothness, motion stability, transition coherence, and human preference. These results show that compact prompt routing and lightweight temporal adaptation provide sufficient controllable capacity for stable long video extrapolation.

Hierarchical state-space models (HSSMs) offer a promising approach to long-horizon prediction by segmenting sequences into temporal chunks. However, their performance hinges on how chunk boundaries are determined. While prior HSSMs typically rely on fixed-length chunking or similarity-based boundary detection, these methods often misalign with the intrinsic temporal structure of the data. We argue that chunking should instead be driven by prediction errors, which more directly indicate when longer-range context becomes necessary. Nevertheless, integrating surprise-based chunking into HSSMs introduces critical challenges, including hierarchical collapse during end-to-end training and the absence of surprise signals during open-loop prediction. To address these issues, we propose Surprise-based Nested Temporal Abstraction (SUNTA), a method that employs a decoupled training strategy to preserve surprise signals and uses internal inconsistency as a top-down surprise metric to determine chunk boundaries within imagined rollouts. Experiments on video prediction tasks in 2D and 3D environments demonstrate that SUNTA outperforms baselines, uniquely maintaining accurate predictions over 250 timesteps, whereas all baselines degrade within the first 10 timesteps.

Foundation video diffusion models are increasingly viewed as world simulators for embodied agents, yet their pretraining on internet-scale generic video leaves them poorly aligned with real-world deployment domains. We study parameter-efficient adaptation of a pretrained foundation video world model to retail scenes: when synchronized egocentric and exocentric video of the same activity are available, which viewpoint of training data produces the strongest adapted model? We introduce RetailSMV (Retail Synchronized Multi-View), a corpus of 32,105 captioned retail clips from five supermarkets with synchronized ego/exo capture from the store-staff perspective (stocking, arranging, weighing, managing supply carts, scanning at checkout), rather than the customer-centric framing of prior retail video corpora, and train three matched Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) configurations of Cosmos3-Nano (egocentric-only, exocentric-only, combined) under identical hyperparameters. On a 200-clip held-out test set evaluated with seven complementary metrics under a strict paired statistical protocol, exocentric-only adaptation matches or exceeds combined adaptation on six of seven point estimates and is significantly better on LPIPS, PSNR, and DreamSim, despite training on only 15,985 exocentric clips (versus 32,105 for combined). A symmetric paired comparison further shows that adding exocentric data to egocentric-only training helps while adding egocentric data to exocentric-only training hurts. The absolute adaptation gap is largest at the shortest rollout time, identifying the near-horizon prediction window as the regime in which adaptation is most beneficial.

How to accurately predict a high-fidelity future world? While the visual world is inherently continuous, existing deterministic video prediction models operate in discrete pixel space and are mainly optimized with pixel-wise mean squared error (MSE), which often leads to over-smoothed predictions and a lack of fine-grained visual details. To address these limitations, we propose Predictive Differentiable Rendering (PDR), a novel end-to-end video prediction paradigm that bridges the gap between discrete and continuous representations. Inspired by recent progress in 3D reconstruction with 3D Gaussian Splatting, we introduce PredGS, a lightweight and plug-and-play adapter based on 2D Gaussian representation, which could be seamlessly integrated with existing pixel space predictors, significantly improving spatial detail preservation with negligible computational overhead. Furthermore, we develop predgsplat, a CUDA-accelerated differentiable 2D Gaussian renderer supporting arbitrary channels. Each Gaussian is defined by 5 + C learnable parameters (position, scale, rotation, and C channel amplitudes) and achieves up to 10x faster rendering than the baseline. Optimized by a combined L1 and SSIM loss, PDR overcomes the inherent blurring tendencies of MSE Loss, significantly enhancing the prediction performance. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks, including TaxiBJ, WeatherBench, KTH, and Human3.6M, demonstrate that PDR consistently surpasses existing methods, delivering superior detail preservation, visual fidelity, and predictive accuracy.

Droplet impact on solid surfaces is a complex fluid dynamics problem with applications in spray cooling, inkjet printing, and pharmaceutical processing. Although numerical simulations are widely used to investigate these dynamics, their computational cost becomes significant when multiple parametric variations are considered. In this work, we investigate the use of a Video Vision Transformer (ViViT) architecture to predict the temporal evolution of viscoelastic droplets impacting solid surfaces using volume fraction fields obtained from the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method. In Newtonian fluids, impact dynamics are mainly characterized by the Reynolds number $Re$, representing the ratio of inertial to viscous forces, and the Weber number $We$, representing the ratio of inertial to surface tension forces. For viscoelastic fluids, additional parameters are required to account for elastic effects, namely the solvent viscosity ratio $β$ and the Weissenberg number $Wi$, increasing simulation complexity and cost. Instead of simulating the entire droplet dynamics, the proposed approach uses only the initial 10% to 20% of the simulation to predict the remaining evolution. Depending on the prediction configuration, this strategy reduces computational cost by approximately 80% to 90% compared to full numerical simulations. The ViViT produces physically consistent predictions across different parameters and prediction horizons, successfully capturing both spreading and bouncing regimes while preserving geometric features and structural similarity. Since volume fraction fields can also be extracted from experimental videos, the proposed framework could be extended to incorporate experimental data during training, potentially improving the physical fidelity of the predicted dynamics.

Scaling robot policy learning for autonomous surgery is challenging, as expert demonstrations are expensive and in vivo exploration poses substantial safety risks. Surgical world models address this by generating realistic, action-conditioned future frames from an initial observation, but existing methods exhibit two persistent failure modes: spatial interaction incoherence, where visible instrument contact fails to induce spatially consistent tissue deformation, and temporal fidelity collapse, where prediction errors compound across autoregressive rollouts and progressively corrupt visual quality. We present SurgVista, a surgical world model that mitigates both failures through two training recipes. Deformation Consistency Regularization extracts scene-point trajectories from training videos and enforces cross-frame coherence through latent contrastive learning, strengthening physically consistent instrument-tissue dynamics. Drift Adaptation Training mitigates long-horizon drift by perturbing conditioning frames with online prediction residuals and photometric augmentations calibrated to long-horizon drift statistics, sustaining visual fidelity over extended rollouts. To enable rigorous evaluation, we further introduce SurgWorld-Bench, featuring diverse procedure types, long-range rollouts, and decoupled metrics for instrument-motion accuracy and tissue-response fidelity. Extensive experiments show that SurgVista consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods across visual quality, temporal consistency, and interaction fidelity, with gains widening as the prediction horizon grows.

Atmospheric plasma spraying (APS) is a widely used coating process in which in-flight particle temperature and velocity strongly influence coating quality. However, these particle characteristics are difficult to monitor continuously during operation, motivating the development of non-invasive data-driven diagnostic methods. In this work, we investigate the predictive potential of high-speed video observations of the plasma plume for estimating in-flight particle characteristics in APS. We introduce three different video-derived feature representations and evaluate them using Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Networks (TabPFN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and classical regression baselines including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and XGBoost. Experiments are conducted using grouped leave-one-out cross-validation on 126 labeled pre- and post-spray video recordings from 63 APS spray runs. Across the engineered feature experiments, TabPFN achieves the most consistent performance for temperature prediction, reaching R2 = 0.86 using the combined feature representation. CNN models particularly perform stronger for velocity prediction, achieving R2 of 0.81. In addition, we evaluate models operating directly on raw video frames using pretrained CNNs and find that the highest performance is achieved by a pretrained CNN with a regression head with R2 of 0.90 and 0.82 for temperature and velocity, respectively. The results demonstrate that video-derived plume information provides a promising and scalable foundation for non-invasive APS diagnostics and real-time process monitoring.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Reinforcement learning from expert videos across visually distinct domains is challenging due to the absence of reward signals and the presence of domain gaps. We introduce XIPER (Cross-domain Video Prediction Reward), a reward model for learning from expert videos collected in a visually different domain, where the agent's appearance differs due to factors such as color, morphology, or the sim-to-real gap. More specifically, XIPER trains a cross-domain video prediction model that maps agent observations into the expert domain and uses the prediction likelihood as a reward signal. Experiments on the DMC Color Suite (8 tasks) and DMC Body Suite (3 tasks) show that XIPER consistently outperforms baselines despite domain gaps such as differences in agent color and morphology. We further analyze XIPER on a sim-to-real transfer dataset, demonstrating that it produces meaningful reward signals for real-robot observations given only simulated expert videos. Code, pretrained models, datasets and video demonstrations can be found on our project webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/xiper

Minute-scale cinematic video generation is a central challenge for generative video models. Existing paradigms address only fragments of this challenge: single-shot extrapolation preserves an anchor but lacks cinematic structure, while multi-shot storytelling imposes structure yet remains free to invent its visual states rather than continue an observed one. We define Multi-Shot Video Extrapolation (MSVE), a task that extends an observed frame or clip into a sequence of cinematically structured shots while preserving anchor state and advancing narrative intent. This setting operates under the finite per-call generation budget of short-video models. We identify three coupled bottlenecks: (1) global planners over-specify unsupported details from full screenplays; (2) shot-level prompts dilute task-relevant state when carrying the complete story; and (3) temporal chaining turns generated frames into a lossy memory in which identity, scene, object, and action state decay. MSVE reveals that long-video failure is not merely a limitation of context length, but a failure of context allocation. We propose Recursive Context Allocation (ReCA), an inference-time framework that allocates context hierarchically across planning and generation. ReCA recursively decomposes MSVE into context-bounded subproblems, invokes frozen generators at leaf nodes, and propagates structured state updates across time. To evaluate this setting, we further propose MSVE-Bench and NB-Q, a source-grounded protocol with prompts purpose-built for 3 to 5 minute long-video generation, a regime not addressed by existing short-clip benchmarks. Compared to previous methods, ReCA improves average normalized score by 8 to 16 percent over the strongest competing controller and improves multi-shot consistency metrics by 28 to 43 percent. View the project page at https://reca.vmv.re.