ROSA: Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory with Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction in Multimodal Traffic

Roundabouts challenge automated driving in mixed traffic, as heterogeneous and non-deterministic human behavior, unknown driving intentions, and high interaction complexity create uncertainty about whether the conflict zone will be blocked or available at the moment of entry. We present ROSA-RL -- uncertainty-aware Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory with Reinforcement Learning. It enables safe and efficient roundabout entry for automated and human-driven vehicles in mixed traffic through probabilistic conflict forecasting. A Transformer-based model predicts conflict zone occupancy over a five-second horizon, capturing multi-agent interactions to anticipate upcoming conflicts and available gaps. The prediction outputs encode uncertainty in future motion and intent, and augment the state of a classical RL framework, enabling uncertainty-aware speed coordination. Evaluated in simulations grounded in real-world data, ROSA-RL can effectively handle uncertainty and outperform a comparable model-based baseline, closing the gap to an ideal setting assuming fully known occupancy while improving traffic efficiency and safety. The source code of this work is available under: github.com/urbanAIthi/ROSA-RL.

Predicting traffic agent trajectories plays an important role in autonomous driving, traffic operations, transportation safety analysis, etc. Although many deep learning algorithms are devised to predict future agent trajectories, the trajectory prediction problem is still challenging due to the complexity of decision-making process, interactions with surrounding vehicles, and the existence of multiple possible intentions for the traveling agents even under similar scenarios. Most existing methods are limited by the requirement of graph structures (e.g., Graph Neural Network) or the requirement of manually labeled intentions. In this study, we propose a pure Transformer-based deep learning model for multi-modal trajectory prediction considering temporal dependencies and agent-agent spatial interactions. After encoding the historical trajectories, two parallel decoders are employed to generate trajectories and probabilities on separate decoder tracks. The model is evaluated on two real-world datasets, one highway dataset and the other pedestrian dataset with solid performance. One important insight is that following a ``propose-then-select'' strategy, the agent-agent spatial interactions are only considered for probability estimation instead of trajectory generation. In summary, the proposed model provides a potential direction to design more robust and effective multi-modal trajectory prediction models.

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate ($\mathrm{TSR}_{0.5}$), defined as the fraction of ground-truth agents with final displacement error below 0.5 m. On the real-world V2V4Real dataset, collaborative prediction improves the success rate by $1.69\%$ and $1.22\%$ for both intelligent vehicles, respectively, compared with individual forecasting.