Single-Agent LLMs Outperform Multi-Agent Systems on Multi-Hop Reasoning Under Equal Thinking Token Budgets
Organizations: Stanford University
Abstract
Recent work reports strong performance from multi-agent LLM systems (MAS), but these gains are often confounded by increased test-time computation. When computation is normalized, single-agent systems (SAS) can match or outperform MAS, yet the theoretical basis and evaluation methodology behind this comparison remain unclear. We present an information-theoretic argument, grounded in the Data Processing Inequality, suggesting that under a fixed reasoning-token budget and with perfect context utilization, single-agent systems are more information-efficient. This perspective further predicts that multi-agent systems become competitive when a single agent's effective context utilization is degraded, or when more compute is expended. We test these predictions in a controlled empirical study across three model families (Qwen3, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama, and Gemini 2.5), comparing SAS with multiple MAS architectures under matched budgets. We find that SAS consistently match or outperform MAS on multi-hop reasoning tasks when reasoning tokens are held constant. Beyond aggregate performance, we conduct a detailed diagnostic analysis of system behavior and evaluation methodology. We identify significant artifacts in API-based budget control (particularly in Gemini 2.5) and in standard benchmarks, both of which can inflate apparent gains from MAS. Overall, our results suggest that, for multi-hop reasoning tasks, many reported advantages of multi-agent systems are better explained by unaccounted computation and context effects rather than inherent architectural benefits, and highlight the importance of understanding and explicitly controlling the trade-offs between compute, context, and coordination in agentic systems.
Figures & tables
| 100 thinking tokens | 500 thinking tokens | ||||||||||||||
| Data | Model | SAS | SAS-L | Seq | Sub | Roles | Deb | Ens | SAS | SAS-L | Seq | Sub | Roles | Deb | Ens |
| FRAMES | Qwen3-30B | 0.191 | 0.195 | 0.198 | 0.155 | 0.207 | 0.204 | 0.146 | 0.240 | 0.220 | 0.223 | 0.187 | 0.223 | 0.206 | 0.193 |
| MuSiQue | Qwen3-30B | 0.200 | 0.210 | 0.220 | 0.174 | 0.202 | 0.225 | 0.149 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.226 | 0.187 | 0.204 | 0.229 | 0.183 |
| FRAMES | DeepSeek-R1-70B | 0.365 | 0.374 | 0.387 | 0.385 | 0.427 | 0.400 | 0.365 | 0.427 | 0.432 | 0.396 | 0.402 | 0.407 | 0.392 | 0.400 |
| MuSiQue | DeepSeek-R1-70B | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.328 | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.383 | 0.375 | 0.332 | 0.303 | 0.329 | 0.320 | 0.319 |
| FRAMES | G2.5-F | 0.333 | 0.427 | 0.462 | 0.365 | 0.441 | 0.445 | 0.284 | 0.487 | 0.459 | 0.494 | 0.442 | 0.451 | 0.470 | 0.384 |
Appendix figures & tables12 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Gemini-2.5-Flash | Qwen3-30B-A3B | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucket | Avg Tokens | Entity Spans | % gold in thoughts | Avg Tokens | Entity Spans | % gold in thoughts | ||||||
| SAS | Seq | SAS | Seq | SAS / Seq / Both | SAS | Seq | SAS | Seq | SAS / Seq / Both | |||
| MR/SW | 72 | 260 | 516 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 12.5 / 41.7 / — | 60 | 788 | 769 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 18.3 / 56.7 / — |
| SR/MW | 124 | 286 | 565 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 42.7 / 18.6 / — | 96 | 733 | 791 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 63.5 / 28.1 / — |
| BR | 265 | 217 | 483 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 61.9 / 64.5 / 50.9 | 209 | 666 | 761 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 73.7 / 78.5 / 69.9 |
| BW | 714 | 274 | 542 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 3.36 / 2.66 / — | 810 | 787 | 809 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 3.33 / 3.58 / — |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 0.191 | 0.240 | 0.252 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.263 |
| 95% CI | (0.158, 0.201) | (0.238, 0.268) | (0.251, 0.282) | (0.248, 0.275) | (0.247, 0.295) | (0.252, 0.299) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 100 | 474 | 800 | 1103 | 1260 | 1307 |
| Seq | 0.198 | 0.223 | 0.225 | 0.252 | 0.252 | 0.258 |
| 95% CI | (0.174, 0.206) | (0.214, 0.224) | (0.205, 0.232) | (0.227, 0.255) | (0.229, 0.253) | (0.247, 0.281) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 99.5 | 494 | 889 | 1321 | 1693 | 1808 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 0.200 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.271 | 0.271 | 0.271 |
| 95% CI | (0.196, 0.214) | (0.248, 0.255) | (0.260, 0.271) | (0.269, 0.276) | (0.268, 0.276) | (0.268, 0.276) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 100 | 495 | 916 | 1345 | 1453 | 1462 |
| Seq | 0.220 | 0.226 | 0.229 | 0.229 | 0.231 | 0.231 |
| 95% CI | (0.212, 0.238) | (0.229, 0.235) | (0.223, 0.248) | (0.223, 0.240) | (0.226, 0.243) | (0.225, 0.244) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 99.6 | 495 | 907 | 1383 | 1766 | 1811 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 0.365 | 0.427 | 0.448 | 0.454 | 0.455 | 0.456 |
| 95% CI | (0.359, 0.378) | (0.407, 0.432) | (0.421, 0.459) | (0.431, 0.463) | (0.434, 0.464) | (0.434, 0.465) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 100 | 466 | 550 | 574 | 635 | 960 |
| Seq | 0.387 | 0.396 | 0.391 | 0.393 | 0.394 | 0.397 |
| 95% CI | (0.365, 0.395) | (0.373, 0.397) | (0.360, 0.400) | (0.369, 0.405) | (0.372, 0.399) | (0.374, 0.400) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 99.6 | 493 | 749 | 959 | 1080 | 1337 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | 0.294 | 0.383 | 0.407 | 0.418 | 0.419 | 0.417 |
| 95% CI | (0.282, 0.305) | (0.372, 0.397) | (0.400, 0.413) | (0.412, 0.429) | (0.413, 0.429) | (0.402, 0.429) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 100 | 412 | 519 | 574 | 635 | 724 |
| Seq | 0.328 | 0.332 | 0.320 | 0.327 | 0.323 | 0.327 |
| 95% CI | (0.324, 0.347) | (0.317, 0.361) | (0.313, 0.336) | (0.312, 0.357) | (0.318, 0.344) | (0.320, 0.351) |
| Avg. thinking tokens | 99.6 | 479 | 788 | 1017 | 1105 | 1124 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS acc. | 0.263 | 0.340 | 0.331 | 0.334 | 0.344 | 0.338 |
| 95% CI | (0.249, 0.266) | (0.319, 0.358) | (0.324, 0.346) | (0.322, 0.353) | (0.323, 0.370) | (0.321, 0.361) |
| Self-count tok. | 90 | 399 | 637 | 884 | 1407 | 1687 |
| Visible words | 124 | 212 | 248 | 254 | 250 | 251 |
| Assumed visible tok. | 177 | 303 | 354 | 363 | 357 | 359 |
| Sequential acc. | 0.272 | 0.287 | 0.287 | 0.283 | 0.289 | 0.285 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS acc. | 0.308 | 0.391 | 0.413 | 0.412 | 0.419 | 0.428 |
| 95% CI | (0.288, 0.320) | (0.369, 0.405) | (0.397, 0.420) | (0.408, 0.418) | (0.410, 0.425) | (0.413, 0.435) |
| Self-count tok. | 84 | 442 | 816 | 884 | 1526 | 1522 |
| Visible words | 124 | 226 | 273 | 254 | 276 | 275 |
| Assumed visible tok. | 177 | 323 | 390 | 363 | 394 | 393 |
| Sequential acc. | 0.393 | 0.391 | 0.400 | 0.414 | 0.392 | 0.392 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS acc. | 0.333 | 0.487 | 0.551 | 0.532 | 0.545 | 0.547 |
| 95% CI | (0.315, 0.341) | (0.473, 0.496) | (0.537, 0.570) | (0.510, 0.537) | (0.541, 0.564) | (0.524, 0.551) |
| Self-count tok. | 89 | 374 | 535 | 714 | 1057 | 1267 |
| Visible words | 138 | 221 | 254 | 278 | 272 | 275 |
| Assumed visible tok. | 197 | 316 | 363 | 397 | 389 | 393 |
| Sequential acc. | 0.462 | 0.494 | 0.507 | 0.526 | 0.524 | 0.516 |
| System | 100 | 500 | 1k | 2k | 5k | 10k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS acc. | 0.368 | 0.600 | 0.680 | 0.700 | 0.700 | 0.692 |
| 95% CI | (0.358, 0.376) | (0.578, 0.608) | (0.640, 0.704) | (0.673, 0.705) | (0.691, 0.705) | (0.661, 0.718) |
| Self-count tok. | 84 | 494 | 807 | 1119 | 1158 | 1210 |
| Visible words | 138 | 261 | 322 | 337 | 337 | 330 |
| Assumed visible tok. | 197 | 373 | 460 | 481 | 481 | 471 |
| Sequential acc. | 0.654 | 0.660 | 0.670 | 0.690 | 0.680 | 0.691 |
| Original | Light paraphrase | Deep paraphrase | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Budget | SAS | Seq | SAS | Seq | SAS | Seq |
| Qwen3-30B-A3B | 1k | 0.260 (0.260, 0.271) | 0.229 (0.223, 0.248) | 0.249 (0.236, 0.260) | 0.224 (0.175, 0.234) | 0.268 (0.264, 0.286) | 0.225 (0.214, 0.234) |
| Qwen3-30B-A3B | 2k | 0.271 (0.269, 0.276) | 0.229 (0.223, 0.240) | 0.264 (0.254, 0.274) | 0.204 (0.200, 0.220) | 0.272 (0.263, 0.286) | 0.236 (0.231, 0.248) |
| Gemini-2.5-Flash | 1k | 0.331 (0.324, 0.346) | 0.287 (0.270, 0.308) | 0.326 (0.320, 0.331) | 0.278 (0.266, 0.298) | 0.358 (0.346, 0.373) | 0.308 (0.283, 0.325) |
| Gemini-2.5-Flash | 2k | 0.334 (0.322, 0.353) | 0.283 (0.271, 0.296) | 0.329 (0.323, 0.340) | 0.289 (0.271, 0.304) | 0.348 (0.332, 0.356) | 0.304 (0.277, 0.309) |
| Model | SAS | Sequential |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini-2-Flash-Lite | 0.258 (0.245, 0.282) | 0.255 (0.226, 0.266) |
| Gemini-2-Flash | 0.347 (0.333, 0.366) | 0.308 (0.296, 0.321) |
| Gemini-2.5-Flash | 0.296 (0.276, 0.319) | 0.294 (0.279, 0.316) |
| Gemini-2.5-Pro | 0.399 (0.381, 0.400) | 0.396 (0.372, 0.403) |
| Gemini-3-Pro-Preview | 0.491 (0.472, 0.500) | 0.489 (0.461, 0.513) |
| Method | Level | SAS | Sequential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deletion | 0.245 (0.234, 0.248) | 0.221 (0.218, 0.229) | |
| Deletion | 0.216 (0.210, 0.226) | 0.219 (0.217, 0.235) | |
| Deletion | 0.229 (0.221, 0.242) | 0.215 (0.213, 0.225) | |
| Masking | 0.234 (0.223, 0.255) | 0.221 (0.211, 0.229) | |
| Masking | 0.223 (0.205, 0.238) | 0.223 (0.206, 0.231) | |
| Masking | 0.220 (0.215, 0.224) | 0.231 (0.224, 0.248) |