"Why This Avoidance Maneuver?" Contrastive Explanations in Human-Supervised Maritime Autonomous Navigation

Maritime systems operate in highly dynamic environments where unexpected equipment failures can compromise safety, reliability, and operational efficiency. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, digital twins, and predictive maintenance enable proactive failure prediction and prevention. However, ensuring trustworthy and explainable decision-making remains a major challenge in safety-critical maritime applications. This chapter reviews key AI technologies required for explainable failure prediction and prevention in maritime systems and presents a conceptual architecture capable of supporting autonomous or human-in-the-loop corrective actions. This architecture integrates data acquisition, time-series forecasting, anomaly detection, risk assessment, decision-making, and explainable AI into a closed-loop framework. With reference to the architectural components, a review and discussion of relevant maritime studies is performed, outlining their methods, advantages, and limitations. Furthermore, it highlights current challenges, including uncertainty and robustness, model generalization, explainability, limited availability of maritime datasets, and operational deployment, and identifies future research directions toward trustworthy AI-assisted maritime decision-making.

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) and AI- supported decision assistants are expected to transform maritime operations, but their safe integration depends on how maritime professionals perceive and trust such systems. This paper presents a survey study on maritime stakeholders' attitudes toward an AI-supported assistant in collision-avoidance scenarios. Participants evaluated technology anxiety, trust in automation, and explanation quality using established and adapted questionnaires, complemented by sentiment and thematic analysis of open-ended responses Results indicate a generally positive disposition toward maritime technology, no clear age-related differences in openness, stable trust across scenarios, and more scenario-sensitive, multidimensional explanation ratings. Open responses showed that participants valued support for decision-making, situation awareness, and confidence-building, while raising concerns about AI reliability, over- reliance and loss of expertise. The findings suggest that maritime AI systems should not focus solely on increasing automation or trust, but on supporting calibrated reliance through transparent, reliable, and operationally meaningful design with domain experts in the loop.

Predicting when maritime systems require maintenance can be critical, avoiding hazards and costly consequences. To address this problem, this paper proposes an explainable decision-making framework that integrates a neuro-fuzzy prediction model with a two-stage explainable component. The first stage of this component produces feature-attribution explanations, using gradient-based saliency maps, and the second stage extracts local rules using a fuzzy decision tree. The proposed framework is generic and can be integrated into any deep learning-based approach, rendering it explainable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fuzzy logic-based framework enabling both feature-level and local rule-based explanations of black box models. This approach aims to foster trustworthiness in decision making through user-understandable machine inferences. The performance of the proposed framework using a deep residual-based neural backbone is evaluated on various general-purpose public benchmark datasets, and its utility in maritime is demonstrated in the context of early fault detection in a naval propulsion system dataset. The results indicate that it can provide predictions outperforming relevant state-of-the-art approaches, with an average AUC-ROC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve) value, reaching up to 99%, while offering the advantage of explainability.