From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction

The ability to accurately assess and anticipate risks in safety-critical scenarios is crucial for autonomous driving systems. While existing research has made progress in collision prediction, accurately quantifying risk levels from monocular vision inputs remains challenging due to the complex dynamics of multi-agent interactions and the inherent uncertainty in real-world environments. To address these challenges, we present NSF-HRPT, a novel framework that combines learning-based perception with structured reasoning for quantitative risk assessment. Our approach features a Neural Semantic Field (NSF) that learns to model scene semantics, trajectory predictions, and probabilistic Time-to-Collision (TTC) distributions from simulation data. During inference, the pre-trained NSF serves as a prior for our Hierarchical Risk Perception Tree (HRPT), which enables efficient parallel computation and spatial reasoning about multi-agent risks. Additionally, we introduce a Sim2Real enhancement strategy that improves real-world applicability without retraining by incorporating priors from foundation models. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic benchmarks and delivers competitive, near-state-of-the-art results on real-world datasets for both TTC estimation accuracy and risk localization precision. The proposed method provides an effective solution for real-time risk awareness from monocular camera inputs.

Trajectory prediction is a key component of autonomous driving systems because future motions directly affect collision checking, behavior planning, and control. The task remains challenging under dense interactions, heterogeneous behaviors, multimodal futures, and limited on-board computation. Existing graph, attention, and generative predictors improve interaction reasoning or uncertainty modeling, but their high-capacity designs are often costly for real-time deployment. Lightweight predictors and conventional distillation reduce inference cost, yet usually rely on static imitation and do not explicitly correct safety-relevant teacher bias. This paper proposes \textbf{MAVEN-T}, a reinforced heterogeneous distillation framework for real-time multi-agent trajectory prediction. A high-capacity teacher models directed local interactions with a surround-aware graph encoder, combines efficient temporal filtering with shifted-window spatial attention, and decodes maneuver-specific futures through a sparse Mixture-of-Experts head. A compact GRU--Squeeze-and-Excitation student with a Low-Rank Adapted policy head is trained by feature-, attention-, and semantic-level distillation. To align prediction with downstream behavior, the student is further refined by Proximal Policy Optimization rewards for collision avoidance, comfort, and progress, while a complexity-aware curriculum and Elastic Weight Consolidation stabilize stage-wise training. Experiments on NGSIM, HighD, MoCAD, Argoverse~2, and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset evaluate accuracy, efficiency, generalization, robustness, and closed-loop safety. The student achieves 6.2$\times$ parameter compression, 3.7$\times$ inference acceleration, and 14.6,ms latency on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin while maintaining competitive accuracy.

End-to-end autonomous driving models generate future trajectories from multi-view inputs, improving system integration but introducing opaque decisions and hard-to-localize risks. Existing methods either rely on auxiliary monitoring models or generate textual explanations, but are decoupled from the planning process and fail to reveal the visual evidence underlying trajectory generation. While attribution offers a direct alternative, planning differs from image classification by taking six-view camera images as input and predicting continuous multi-step trajectories, requiring attribution to capture both critical views and regions and their influence on outputs. Moreover, whether attribution maps can support risk identification remains underexplored. To address this, we propose a hierarchical attribution framework for end-to-end planning. Specifically, using L2 consistency with the original trajectory as the objective, we design a coarse-to-fine region attribution strategy that searches candidate regions across the full six-view input and refines attribution within them. We further extract three attribution statistics as predictive signals for planning risk, including attribution entropy to measure how concentrated the planner's reliance is over the joint visual space, within-camera spatial variance to characterize how spread out the attribution is within each view, and cross-camera Gini coefficient to quantify how unevenly attribution is distributed across the six cameras. Experiments on BridgeAD, UniAD, and GenAD show that these statistics correlate with planning risk, achieving Spearman correlations of $0.30 \pm 0.07$ with trajectory error and AUROC of $0.77 \pm 0.04$ for collision detection. The signal generalizes to held-out scenes with negligible degradation and remains stable under an alternative attribution baseline.