A Causal Probabilistic Framework for Perception-Informed Closed-Loop Simulation of Autonomous Driving

Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS) must operate reliably under diverse conditions, yet representative data for rare or adverse scenarios is difficult to obtain. Perturbation-based testing is widely used to assess robustness, but most studies focus on offline datasets or simulation, leaving open questions about how such results translate to real-world driving. We present a large-scale study of 72 camera and LiDAR perturbations, evaluated across three testing modalities: offline model-level analysis, hardware-in-the-loop execution, and closed-loop system-level testing on a full-scale autonomous vehicle. The study covers both an end-to-end vision-based driving model and a modular LiDAR-based perception and planning stack. Our results reveal a clear gap between testing levels. For camera-based systems, perturbations with limited offline impact can still induce unstable control and failures in real-world driving. For LiDAR-based systems, degradation is more consistent at the perception level but weakly predictive of system-level failures. Across both modalities, model-level metrics alone are insufficient to identify the most harmful perturbations. We further show that real-time feasibility is a key constraint in real-world testing, and that robustness observations obtained from recorded data do not consistently transfer to closed-loop behavior on a physical vehicle, highlighting the importance of complementary real-world, system-level evaluation.

Environmental illusions (eg., shadows, reflections, and tire marks) are naturally existing yet overlooked phenomena in real-world driving environments. They can disturb visual perception, leading to misinterpretation of the scene and posing serious safety risks to autonomous driving (AD) systems. However, existing researches largely overlook these phenomena, leaving a critical gap. To address this issue, we study AD robustness through the lane perception perspective, a fundamental task supporting core functions like cruise control and lane centering. We focus on two representative models: conventional lane detection (LD) and vision-language model-based systems (ADVLMs). In this work, we introduce the first benchmark, LanEvil++, for evaluating the robustness of lane perception under environmental illusions. LanEvil++ encompasses 14 types of illusions and leverages the CARLA simulator to generate 94 high-fidelity, fully controllable 3D scenes, yielding a dataset of 90,292 annotated images, 1,596 video clips, and 41,855 visual question answering pairs. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that environmental illusions substantially degrade the performance of state-of-the-art LD methods. On average, LD models experience a 5.27% drop in Accuracy and a 10.49% decline in F1-score, while ADVLMs show a 2.03% reduction in GPT-score and a 0.75% drop in Language-score. Among all illusions, shadows emerge as the most disruptive factor, reducing accuracy by up to 7.20%. Furthermore, closed-loop simulations reveal that these illusions can lead to incorrect driving decisions. Complementary real-world case studies highlight safety-critical failures in actual traffic scenes. To enhance robustness, we propose the Multimodal Illusion Defense Approach (MIDA). MIDA achieves substantial gains under challenging conditions, boosting robustness by 4.23% on LD models and 3.82% on ADVLMs.

Credible simulated-rainfall conditions are essential for identifying perception-system boundaries and supporting SOTIF-oriented risk assessment in automated driving. However, closed-field tests are often described only by nominal rainfall intensity or single-point measurements, making it difficult to align simulated rain fields with real rainfall and map test results to real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a path-based credibility evaluation method for simulated rainfall in autonomous-driving perception tests. Using the drop size and velocity joint distribution of real rainfall as the reference, each candidate path is represented by path-equivalent rainfall intensity, an uncertainty band, and a path-averaged Realism of Raindrop Distribution (RRD) score. Lidar target point-cloud count and mean reflectivity are further used for perception-consistency correction, quantifying the proxy capability of each simulated-rainfall path for real-rainfall perception effects. Experiments are conducted using about 10,000 real-rainfall raindrop-spectrum samples, 728 RainSense perception samples, and 45 spatial sampling points in a 2.4 m x 7.2 m simulated-rainfall area. Results show that spatial non-uniformity remains under the same nominal condition, confirming the need for path-based evaluation. The method identifies Path IV and Path VI as preferable candidates, with results of 11.54 +/- 0.31 mm/h, RRD = 0.43, and 8.28 +/- 0.34 mm/h, RRD = 0.46, respectively. These paths show more balanced performance in rainfall-intensity stability, raindrop-spectrum realism, and perception consistency. The proposed method supports path selection, condition description, and credible interpretation of autonomous-driving perception tests under rainfall.