Structured Evidence Routing for Incident Risk Prediction from Multimodal Longitudinal EHRs

Numerical time-series models effectively process irregular electronic health record (EHR) trajectories, but do not expose which temporal patterns support each prediction as readable evidence. Existing text-based interfaces either serialize observations, preserving source traceability but offering limited clinical interpretation, or generate patient-level summaries that improve readability but can obscure links to source measurements. We introduce STEP-CTS (Source-Traceable Evidence for Prediction from Clinical Time-Series), which learns to select source-traceable text evidence for a language-model predictor. Multi-scale window statistics of each trajectory are verbalized as sets of deterministic threshold predicates, each set linked to its source window (e.g., "[5-7 h]: last temperature at least 38C"). An offline LLM, run once per unique predicate set without access to patient records, the prediction task, or outcome labels, attaches clinical concepts such as "fever" to their supporting predicates and abstains when none applies. Each predicate set, together with its concepts, forms an evidence unit. A learned Evidence Selector selects a fixed-size subset of the evidence units, which a pretrained clinical language-model encoder reads to make the prediction, with no patient-level text generation. Across three ICU benchmarks, STEP-CTS outperforms evaluated text-based baselines, improving AUPRC over the strongest by 5.1, 3.7, and 11.7 percentage points on P2012, MIMIC-III, and P2019, respectively, and is competitive with dedicated numerical time-series models. Ablations show that clinical concepts and learned evidence selection each contribute to predictive performance. In a blinded clinician study, the selected evidence is rated as traceable as deterministic serialization, near the ceiling of the scale, and above generated summaries on clinical interpretation.

Electronic health record (EHR) data are inherently multimodal, and leveraging multiple modalities can improve predictive performance. However, most existing approaches rely on deep fusion, which obscures how individual modalities contribute to predictions and limits the interpretability of multimodal reasoning. We propose an explicit multimodal routing framework for clinical prediction that enables interpretable, robust, and auditable reasoning across three EHR modalities: structured longitudinal variables (L), clinical notes (N), and chest X-rays (I). Our model constructs discrete unimodal, directional bimodal, and trimodal routes to capture both individual modality signals and asymmetric cross-modal interactions. To audit multimodal reasoning and assess robustness, we introduce inference-time route masking, which simulates missing modalities and reweights the remaining routes without retraining. We analyze changes in performance and routing weights under these scenarios to understand model decision-making. We evaluate our framework on multi-label phenotype prediction (K = 25) and binary ICU mortality prediction using trimodal patient stays from MIMIC-IV, revealing systematic differences in modality reliance across clinical condition groups. Overall, our framework offers a transparent, auditable, and practical approach to multimodal clinical prediction, providing interpretability, robustness, and insights into how different data sources drive model decisions.

Structured electronic health records (EHRs) contain a patient's clinical trajectory as a sequence of clinical codes. Answering clinical questions from such records requires both the context of the whole trajectory and the specific events that support the answer. We introduce GLoC-EHR, a multimodal language model that reads a contextual encoding of the record through a fixed-size global memory of the trajectory and a local memory of selected events. The model learns to generate hospital-course summaries from the global memory and descriptions of masked concepts from the local memory, aligning both with clinical text. It is then trained to cite evidence before answering, through rationale fine-tuning followed by group relative policy optimization (GRPO) with rewards for correct answers and record-supported evidence. On three MIMIC-IV outcome tasks, GLoC-EHR attains the highest macro AUROC among the compared models when it answers directly, whereas zero-shot LLMs reading the serialized record fall far behind. With evidence-cited reasoning, it stays close to its direct multi-task counterpart in macro AUROC, and the evidence terms of the objective reduce unsupported evidence at a similar macro AUROC. The local memory adds distinct supported findings, particularly under strict matching, without a detectable change in macro AUROC. Without retraining, GLoC-EHR transfers to EHRSHOT on par with EHR-BERT and answers two unseen laboratory questions better than zero-shot prompting of its own backbone.