TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction

This paper considers channel state information (CSI) prediction using neural networks for time-varying multi-antenna channels from noisy historical observations. The main challenge is to exploit temporal correlation while distinguishing channel evolution from observation noise. We propose JEPA-kMMVAE, which combines a joint-embedding predictive architecture with a k-memory Markov variational autoencoder to predict future CSI through temporally structured latent representations. The framework supports direct prediction and residual corrections relative to the latest latent state and noisy CSI observation. Simulation results show that the residual configuration outperforms the evaluated baselines at moderate and high input CSI signal-to-noise ratios, while sequence baselines remain more accurate under stronger noise.

Accurate and timely channel state information (CSI) is essential for next-generation wireless systems, yet existing works treat CSI compression and CSI prediction as separate problems, both in academia and in current 3GPP studies. Consequently, channel aging remains insufficiently addressed within standardized CSI feedback pipelines. In this article, we propose a unified compression-prediction framework that integrates Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) directly into the 3GPP-compliant CSI compression architecture. Instead of predicting high-dimensional CSI matrices, our approach forecasts future latent representations and jointly optimizes reconstruction fidelity and temporal predictive coherence via a combined 1-SGCS and InfoNCE objective. This design enables temporal representation learning without increasing feedback overhead. We present two variants: CPC-before-Compression, which performs autoregressive modeling on encoded features prior to quantization, and CPC-after-Compression, which shifts temporal modeling to the base-station to reduce the complexity of users' devices. Evaluations on 3GPP-compliant datasets from Nokia, Oppo, and CATT show that CPC-before-Compression achieves over 90% reconstruction accuracy with 32x lower decoder GFLOPs than the 3GPP baseline, while CPC-after-Compression preserves an identical encoder footprint and the same 64-bit feedback overhead. By unifying compression and prediction within a standardized pipeline, the proposed framework provides an age-aware, computationally efficient CSI feedback solution. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/AhmedRadwan02/cpc-3gpp

Accurate trajectory forecasting and well-defined predictive uncertainty are crucial for reliable, safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. Most trajectory prediction approaches provide point estimates only, while uncertainty-aware approaches typically quantify uncertainty only in the trajectory space. In physics-aware approaches, uncertainty in the predicted motion variables should be explicitly modeled and propagated through the vehicle dynamics. Otherwise, the resulting trajectory-space uncertainty may not fully reflect the variability introduced by the underlying motion prediction. Therefore, in this work, uncertainty-aware extensions of X-TRACK (X-TRACK-DE and X-TRACK-MCD), a physics-aware trajectory prediction framework, are proposed. The proposed framework predicts future vehicle motion variables and models both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties by propagating motion space uncertainty to trajectory space. Additionally, conformal prediction is applied to the trajectory space predictive covariance to construct uncertainty regions targeting a desired marginal coverage level. Evaluation on the highD dataset shows that X-TRACK-DE improves trajectory prediction accuracy over the deterministic baseline, while both uncertainty-aware variants provide predictive uncertainty that can be conformally calibrated to the desired marginal coverage level.