CARDINAL Predicts Cardiovascular Risk From Non-contrast Cardiac CT

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death among women, yet cardiovascular risk assessment often relies on clinical variables that may be missing, outdated, or unavailable in routine care. Screening mammography offers an opportunity for opportunistic cardiovascular risk stratification because it is routinely acquired and contains vascular features, including breast arterial calcifications (BAC), that are associated with cardiovascular risk and events. We evaluate whether mammography specific foundation models, originally pretrained for breast cancer-related tasks, can transfer to cardiovascular risk prediction without cardiovascular specific supervision or explicit BAC annotation. We constructed a 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) cohort of 22,497 women linked to electronic health record outcomes, including 500 events (2.22% prevalence). The foundation models achieved AUROCs of 0.823 and 0.822 substantially exceeding an age-only model (AUROC 0.765), despite using only the screening mammogram as input, with no clinical variables. Both foundation models evaluated assigned substantially higher predicted risk to patients with radiologist-documented BAC, despite BAC never being used as a training label, and showed activation patterns consistent with vascular findings. Together, these findings suggest that mammography foundation models can recover clinically relevant cardiovascular risk information directly from mammographic pixels and suggest that screening mammography may provide an opportunistic source of cardiovascular risk information to complement conventional clinical assessment without additional imaging. Code is available in https://github.com/PauFeld/MammoCVD

Non-contrast computed tomography calcium scoring (CTCS) is widely recognized as an effective tool for cardiovascular risk stratification. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning framework for predicting myocardial ischemia from routine non-contrast CTCS scans using quantitative coronary calcium assessment. This study analyzed 1,375 patients who underwent both non-contrast CTCS and regadenoson stress cardiac positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging within one year at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center. A total of 74 variables, including clinical variables, Agatston score, and calcium-omics features, were evaluated. Relevant features were identified using XGBoost with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Predictive models were trained and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation. Among 987 patients, 89 (9%) were positive for myocardial ischemia. The final model incorporated the Agatston score, eight calcium-omics features, and age. The proposed model achieved a precision of 98.9+/-3.0%, sensitivity of 79.2+/-8.4, and F1 score of 87.7+/-5.3%. The addition of calcium-omics features significantly improved predictive performance compared with models using clinical variables alone or clinical variables with the Agatston score (p<0.05). Interestingly, the number of calcified arteries, despite being the lowest-ranked feature based on SHAP analysis, showed the strongest association with myocardial ischemia in logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 3.63, 95% confidence interval: 2.80-4.77, p<0.00001). We developed a machine learning approach for predicting myocardial ischemia using routinely acquired non-contrast CTCS scans. Calcium-omics features provided incremental predictive value beyond conventional risk factors and Agatston scoring and may support more accessible cardiovascular risk stratification.

Therapy-induced cardiotoxicity is the leading non-oncological cause of treatment interruption in breast cancer patients, yet early, automated risk stratification from routine cardiac imaging remains an unsolved problem. We present EchoRisk, the first curated, multicentre, longitudinal echocardiography dataset with explicit cardiotoxicity labels, released as the primary technical reference for the EchoRisk-MICCAI 2026 challenge. The dataset comprises 422 patients enrolled in the EU-funded CARDIOCARE prospective study across five European sites, yielding 2,159 echocardiography videos across 1,123 clinical exams acquired at up to five longitudinal timepoints, alongside a dedicated cohort of 280 patients with baseline imaging for early cardiotoxicity prediction. Three clinically grounded tasks are defined: automated estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction from cine video (Task 1), classification of LV dysfunction from longitudinal imaging (Task 2), and early prediction of therapy-induced cardiotoxicity from pre-therapy baseline echocardiography alone (Task 3). For each task we specify the evaluation protocol, primary and secondary metrics, and ranking procedure. We establish baseline performance using an R(2+1)D video backbone with LSTM aggregation trained from Kinetics-400 pretrained weights, demonstrating strong discriminative performance for cardiac functional assessment and LV dysfunction classification, while early cardiotoxicity prediction from a single pre-therapy video remains a significant open problem for the community. The dataset, evaluation code, and baseline implementations are publicly available to serve as a benchmark for further collaboration, comparison, and the creation of task-specific architectures in cardio-oncology.