This work proposes a physics-enhanced machine learning approach for the system identification of Linear Time-Varying (LTV) systems under time-varying operating conditions in terms of fast-varying natural frequencies and damping ratios by combining a long short-term memory network with an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The proposed approach uses vibration data (displacement and velocity measurements), domain knowledge of modal damping ratios, and a physics-based model that can yield an approximate natural frequencies time-dependency model. The approach is validated using synthetic data generated from a finite element model of a 2-blade offshore wind turbine under realistic environmental and operating conditions. This system displays fast time-varying frequencies due to operating conditions, whose identification is particularly challenging because of the wind and wave loading. The robustness of the proposed approach is assessed under assumed incorrect system information (e.g. damping ratio). The proposed approach is evaluated across different environmental and operating conditions to show its applicability to different operating regimes. The results show the approach can accurately identify the selected fast-varying natural frequency, 1st Fore-Aft (FA-1) mode, with a maximum root mean square error of 0.0012 Hz. The results demonstrate that the model trained on EKF estimates depends on accurate damping values, whereas the model trained on physics-based data exhibits robustness to incorrect damping assumptions. The approach is extended to damping ratio identification for the selected mode by estimating the root mean square error between models trained on EKF estimates and physics-based data. The results show that the approach can yield a good approximation of the FA-1 mode damping ratio using grid search, offering an improvement over covariance-driven stochastic subspace identification.
The robust treatment of environmental and operational variability (EOV) is an open challenge in population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM). The difficulty is compounded in the case that the EOV signals are unmeasured. A common approach in conventional SHM is to apply \emph{projection-based} methods that discard subspaces of healthy feature data, reasoning that the EOV signal dominates the variance of the measured features. However, a common pitfall of projection-based approaches is that when damage acts close to the same variance-dominant direction, damage sensitivity is removed along with the EOV. An alternative identifying assumption for the removal of particular unmeasured EOVs is slowness; the latent EOV process is characterised by its long temporal correlation. In this paper, the latent EOV is cast as a state-space Gaussian process, enabling tractable O(T) inference via a Kalman filter. A robust hierarchical Bayesian identification framework is developed that enables population-level identification of latent EOVs and EOV-free residual features, using a Laplace approximation. The approach is first validated on a single laboratory-scale benchmark structure from the literature, subject to thermal EOVs, demonstrating robust damage detection and EOV recovery. The method is then applied to a simulated nine-turbine offshore wind farm with staggered deployment and damage, where it delivers a substantial true-positive uplift over projection and cointegration-based baselines at matched false-positive rates.
Monitoring high-dimensional engineering structures in extreme environments is limited by non-stationary excitation, nonlinear structural kinematics, and stochastic forcing. Traditional model-based and black-box data-driven methods often struggle to resolve these dynamics in real time, particularly under sensor failure or partial observability. This paper introduces a rank-optimized digital twin framework based on Koopman operator theory, Hankel-matrix embeddings, and dynamic mode decomposition. By lifting operational data into a linear invariant subspace, the method enables autonomous, input-blind reconstruction of structural states without requiring a priori mass or stiffness matrices. The framework is validated on an NREL 5MW spar-buoy floating offshore wind turbine, representing a challenging coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic system. Results show that the rank-optimized Koopman-Hankel manifold separates structural resonances from deterministic 3P rotor harmonics under colored noise, where standard subspace identification can be unreliable. A rolling-horizon virtual sensing strategy achieves high-fidelity reconstruction at critical structural hotspots, with coefficient of determination greater than 0.95 at 1 Hz data assimilation and accuracy exceeding 0.99 at higher sampling rates. By estimating a physical Lyapunov time of approximately 1.0 s, the study defines the predictability horizon associated with the system information barrier. The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and resilient digital twin approach for real-time identification and virtual sensing of complex structural dynamics.
Mohammad Mahdi Abaei, Ahmad BahooToroody, Arttu Polojärvi +4
The identification and modeling of time-varying systems is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and system identification. To address this challenge, we propose a class of time-varying state-space model (SSM) based neural networks in which the neurons' states are governed by time-varying dynamics. The proposed model provides the learnable time-varying dynamics through a dictionary of basis functions, where each basis function evolves differently over time. We evaluate the proposed approach on both synthetic data from switching systems and a speech denoising task where real audio is corrupted with switching dynamics noise. The results show that the proposed time-varying model consistently outperforms its time-invariant counterparts while maintaining comparable computational complexity. Our investigations also reveal which aspects of the time-varying dynamics of the data most need to be captured by the proposed time-invariant models, how the additional freedom provided by time-varying basis functions should be allocated across model components, and to what extent larger models can compensate for time-invariant limitations.