Agentic Time Series Forecasting

Wind power forecasting models are often deployed as fixed temporal backbones, but the errors they make can vary across meteorological regimes such as cold waves, heat-and-calm periods, productive typhoon, and destructive storms. We present a guarded Agent-in-the-loop residual adaptation framework that leaves the temporal backbone unchanged and adapts only a small set of scene-conditioned residual experts. An Agent layer interprets external scene information, identifies the current regime, selects residual experts, and applies a correction only when recent observed errors support it. New experts enter the pool after they outperform their initializations on a validation set, keeping model growth under explicit control. Backbone-only and Agent-enhanced forecasts are compared at lead times of 4, 8, 12, 24, and 48 across nine time-series backbones. Across these runs, the guarded framework lowers both MAE and RMSE for all 45 backbone-horizon combinations, with average MAE reductions ranging from 11.21% to 20.26% across backbones. Online-selection baselines, component ablations, and routing analyses identify the roles of residual experts, scene-aware routing, and the online acceptance rule. Candidate-scene runs evaluate the promotion path under controlled conditions; long-term unattended deployment was not evaluated.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) perform unevenly across forecasting tasks. Recent work uses agentic model orchestration (AMO) to select or combine TSFMs, often outperforming individual forecasters. Yet these gains may reflect stronger or more complementary candidates rather than better orchestration. To disentangle these effects, we introduce FairAMO, a controlled evaluation protocol with frozen candidate forecasts. Experiments on GIFT-Eval show that AMO improves accuracy, but its gains are bounded by the candidate TSFMs. The best orchestrators reduce MASE by less than 6% relative to the best single TSFM across all tasks. These gains depend on complementarity (different candidates excel on different tasks) rather than the number of candidates. Adding members yields diminishing returns, and a redundant member can erase these gains. The value of historical evidence also saturates quickly. A few recent windows capture all gains, and further history adds none. These findings separate system-level forecasting gains from the contribution of orchestration itself.

Time-series foundation models provide strong zero-shot forecast, but deployment for real-world applications still requires task-specific designs for model inputs and outputs. Direct inference can leave domain knowledge and recurring forecast errors unaddressed, while tailored pipelines require substantial human expertise and effort. We introduce TimeRSI, a self-improving agentic deployment system around frozen forecasting models. A coding agent translates task descriptions into executable pipeline changes. It tests each revision on historical forecasting windows and uses observed errors to guide subsequent revisions. During deployment, an adaptive selector chooses among the resulting pipelines using completed forecasts under similar conditions. Across 198 tasks on TIME and fev-bench, TimeRSI outperforms all submissions on six point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Controlled comparisons support the value of feedback-guided revision over non-iterative pipeline search. Further experiments verify the generalization with different coding agents and forecasting models. Code is available at https://github.com/haoxin1998/TimeRSI.

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide forecasts for operational decisions, but accuracy alone does not determine their value. Evaluating agents that use these models requires measuring decision quality and forecast cost. FWBench evaluates this capability on 1,251 electricity and cycle-hire cases using fixed forecast tools and simulated capacity contracts. Agents select models, histories and horizons, then submit capacities to minimize a stated loss-cost objective. We evaluated two hosted and eight local configurations, including small language models, and tested local models with and without TSFMs. GPT-6 Astra bought inexpensive short-horizon forecasts selectively, using 2.5% of the budget, and outperformed fixed policies when the saved decisions were scored with three loss-cost weightings. FWBench enables reproducible evaluation of how language models select and use time-series forecasts to make decisions under cost constraints.

Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time-varying. Consequently, a time series agent must adapt the forecasts it produces and the orchestration policy that determines which components to trust and how to coordinate them. The deployment process naturally provides supervision for this adaptation as forecast horizons elapse and realized targets reveal the effectiveness of earlier decisions. Committing all numerical expert forecasts and candidate agent paths before target observation allows each realized outcome to evaluate the entire alternative set, providing delayed feedback without additional annotation. However, existing time series agents primarily incorporate prior experience through forecast refinement, reflection, or retrieval, without systematically converting realized outcomes into persistent updates to the joint orchestration policy governing later origins. To exploit this delayed feedback systematically, we introduce TimEvolve, a frozen-backbone time series agent that converts each realized outcome into persistent joint updates of expert trust, agent path selection, and intervention strength. A temporally ordered predict, reveal, and update protocol applies this feedback to subsequent forecasts. Experiments across eight Time-MMD domains show that TimEvolve achieves the best average MSE and MAE ranks among fifteen methods and the lowest errors on both metrics in seven domains. These results demonstrate the value of learning forecasting policies from the futures encountered during deployment.

LLM-based agents are increasingly being developed for time-series problems, but their design choices vary substantially across task settings. This survey adopts a problem-driven taxonomy that organizes these systems by the time-series problems they address rather than by isolated technical components. We group existing systems into four categories: forecasting and reasoning, augmentation and synthesis, anomaly detection and diagnosis, and decision support. Within each category, we examine how task requirements shape agent architecture, tool use, and memory design. We further summarize representative datasets and environments, and compare reported model performance under shared or closely related settings. Overall, this survey offers a task-oriented guide to designing LLM-based agents for time-series problems and identifies open gaps for future work.

Time series analysis in high-stakes domains relies on recurring data releases, where new observations can alter the evidence base and the validity of later conclusions. Existing time series QA benchmarks mostly rely on fixed snapshots, leaving temporal validity and cutoff-aware evidence use unevaluated. We introduce TimeSage-EV, a live benchmark for agentic time series analysis in evolving environments. It tracks 60 real institutional scenarios across 6 domains, comprising 1,485 scenario-period QA pairs from Feb 2023 to May 2026 and spanning monthly, weekly, daily, and irregular release cadences. At each period, large language model (LLM) agents receive time series data and source reports, while the withheld target release provides ground truth. TimeSage-EV evaluates state identification, data summarization, and outlook reasoning. Experiments with frontier LLM agents and TimeSage-1.0, a novel self-evolving agent with a reusable analytical skill library, reveal significant performance gaps across model tiers and recurring failures in temporal validity, exogenous context use, and adaptation. We release TimeSage-EV as a research resource with monthly updates, code, a leaderboard, and failure-mode analyses.

Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have extended forecasting beyond numerical extrapolation toward context-aware reasoning. However, existing approaches often lack explicit mechanisms to identify relevant contexts, reason about their impacts, and validate forecasts against temporal and domain constraints. In this work, we propose CastFSR, an agentic framework that formulates context-aware forecasting as a Fast--Slow--Reflect workflow. In fast thinking, CastFSR profiles observations and selects lightweight forecasters to construct a data-driven forecast prior. In slow deliberation, it retrieves contextual evidence, adaptively determines informative look-back windows, and reasons about how contexts reshape future dynamics. In reflection, it iteratively refines forecasts to ensure temporal, contextual, and domain consistency. CastFSR supports both training-free inference with off-the-shelf LLMs and efficient deployment through a two-stage SFT and reinforcement learning strategy that transfers its orchestration capability to compact LLMs. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that CastFSR consistently outperforms representative baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/CastFSR.

Time series are often embedded in rich contexts that are essential for holistic modeling. Moreover, real-world practitioners often require end-to-end workflows for analyzing temporal dynamics, where widely studied tasks such as forecasting are only one step in a broader solution loop. While generalist AI agents offer a promising interface for such workflows under complex contexts, they still operate primarily in textual spaces that are not fully aligned with structured temporal signals. In this work, we introduce TimeClaw, an agentic harness framework for time series that equips generalist LLM agents with the time series-native runtime support needed for contextualized temporal reasoning. TimeClaw integrates executable temporal tools for grounded and auditable analysis, experience-driven capability evolution for creating reusable analytical routines, and episodic multimodal memory for retrieving relevant reasoning traces. Together, these components unlock harnessed open-ended temporal reasoning with contextual information. Extensive evaluation on multiple benchmarks covering diverse tasks across energy, finance, weather, traffic, and other real-world domains demonstrates improved performance of TimeClaw. Code is available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/TimeClaw.

Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation. However, in real-world forecasting settings, a statistically plausible baseline is rarely the final forecast used in practice. Before a forecast becomes decision-ready, it often needs to be revised using weakly structured business context such as holiday effects, campaign plans, external events, historical analogs, and expert feedback. This practical stage remains underexplored in the forecasting literature. In this paper, we formulate this stage as the last-mile forecasting problem and present an LLM-agent framework that sits on top of a forecasting backbone. Our system maintains a unified forecast workspace, invokes tools to retrieve contextual evidence, and converts reasoning trajectories into explicit forecast revision actions under structural safety constraints. It also supports long-horizon forecasting through map-reduce-style decomposition and post-hoc reflection through a memory bank. The resulting system is designed to be controllable and auditable. Through real-world case studies, we show how LLM agents can bridge the gap between statistical prediction and business-ready forecasting.

Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task in temporal data analytics, and large language model (LLM)-based agents offer a promising paradigm through autonomous tool interaction and evidence-grounded reasoning. However, two fundamental challenges remain: how to acquire forecast-relevant evidence through adaptive tool interactions, and how to translate such evidence into accurate numerical predictions. To address these challenges, we propose CastFlow, a role-specialized agentic forecasting framework that bridges general-purpose tool reasoning and specialized temporal forecasting. Specifically, CastFlow introduces an Experience Memory that distills successful tool-use trajectories from training data, guiding a frozen LLM to orchestrate a multi-view toolkit for evidence acquisition. A lightweight specialized LLM then performs evidence-grounded temporal reasoning to refine an ensemble forecasting prior. To enhance this capability, we develop a two-stage training strategy combining supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, where final forecasting outcomes of the overall workflow guide the optimization of the specialized model. Extensive experiments on ten real-world benchmarks demonstrate that CastFlow outperforms competitive baselines on nine datasets. Our findings highlight the importance of bridging autonomous evidence acquisition and specialized temporal reasoning for accurate and adaptive agentic forecasting. The source code is available at https://github.com/Forever-Pan/CastFlow.

Recent agentic time series forecasting (TSF) approaches use large language models (LLMs) to autonomously orchestrate analytical and forecasting tools and reason about temporal patterns using the resulting evidence. However, many such approaches rely on powerful LLMs in training-free, prompt-driven workflows, leaving open whether smaller models can learn these interaction and reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we introduce Cast-R1, an 8Bparameter agentic forecasting model trained through trajectory distillation and multi-turn reinforcement learning with structured memory. First, we develop a forecasting agent harness with specialized analysis and prediction tools to generate multi-turn interaction trajectories using a teacher LLM, which are subsequently evaluated and selected for supervised fine-tuning. Second, we apply group relative policy optimization (GRPO) across multi-turn forecasting episodes, with structured memory preserving diagnostic evidence and intermediate forecasts for state construction. Rewards based on prediction accuracy and temporal structure guide tool selection, model routing, and forecast refinement. A difficulty-aware curriculum combines sample filtering and progressive sample ordering during training. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Cast-R1. These findings highlight the potential of forecasting-specific post-training to equip smaller LLMs with multi-turn, tool-augmented forecasting capabilities within structured workflows.