Aleatoric Uncertainty

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2 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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  1. Structural Limits of the Information-Theoretic Uncertainty Decomposition

    Sep 30, 2026Jakob Lønborg Christensen, Christian F. Baumgartner, Morten Rieger Hannemose +2Aleatoric UncertaintyInformation-Theoretic Lower Bounds

    DTU Compute Technical University of Denmark · Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine University of Lucerne

  2. From Answers to Interpretations: Rethinking Ambiguity-Induced Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs

    Sep 7, 2026Omer Nahum, Niv Nayman, Jonathan Fhima +4LLM Uncertainty EstimationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Data and Decision Sciences, Technion, Israel · Amazon Web Services · Computer Vision Group, University of Bern, Switzerland

  3. Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

    Aug 31, 2026Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt +3Probabilistic ForecastingAleatoric Uncertainty

    Applied Machine Learning Group, Fraunhofer Heinrich-Hertz Institute, 10587 Berlin, Germany · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technische Universität Berlin, 10587 Berlin, Germany · BIFOLD - Berlin Institute for the Foundations of Learning and Data, 10587 Berlin, Germany

  4. Tracing sources of epistemic uncertainty in deep learning predictions: homo- and hetero-scedastic linearized estimators

    Aug 7, 2026Pierre Nodet, Thomas GeorgeUncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Orange Research, Châtillon, France

  5. A Ground-Truth Framework for Uncertainty Disentanglement with Posterior Risk

    Aug 6, 2026Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler +2Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Hertie Institute for AI in Brain Health, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Berlin, Berlin, Germany +2

  6. Attribution and Uncertainty Behavior of Learned Residual Gyro Correction for Gyro-Stellar Estimation

    Jul 27, 2026Mariela De Lucas Álvarez, Melvin Laux, Arthur de Freitas Precht +4Residual LearningAleatoric Uncertainty

    Robotics Innovation Center, German Research Center for AI (DFKI GmbH), Bremen, Germany · Airbus Defence and Space GmbH, Immenstaad, Germany

  7. Disentangling Model and Human Data Uncertainty in Apparent Facial Age Estimation

    Jul 17, 2026Andrei Foitos, Ivo Pascal de Jong, Matias Valdenegro-ToroBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Bernoulli Institute, University of Groningen, Groningen, NL

  8. Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 16, 2026Raghad Alamri, Michele Caprio, Gavin BrownUncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester · Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick

  9. Trading Confidence: Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation in Algorithmic Trading

    Jul 3, 2026Lin Li, Li Rong Wang, Hsuan Fu +1Reinforcement LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Nanyang Technological University 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University Centre for Frontier AI Research, A*STAR 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Laval University Quebec, Canada

  10. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Faculty of Business and Commerce, Kansai University, Suita, Japan · Data Science and AI Innovation Research Promotion Center, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan · Graduate School of Data Science, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan

  11. On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions

    Jun 17, 2026Sam Goring, Tom Kuipers, Nicola Paoletti +1Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    King’s College London · Northeastern University London

  12. Hybrid Uncertainty Sensitivity Analysis Based on the HSIC for High-Dimensional Responses with Aleatory--Epistemic Separation

    Jun 12, 2026Shijie Zhong, Jiangfeng Fu, Pengfei WeiUncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    School of Power and Energy Northwestern Polytechnical University Xi’an, Shanxi 710129

  13. What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?

    Jun 10, 2026Yusuf Sale, Christopher Bülte, Felix Czaja +2Dynamical SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    Institute of Computer Science, LMU Munich · Munich · Department of Mathematics, LMU Munich +1

  14. Neuronal Stochastic Attention Circuit (NSAC) for Probabilistic Representation Learning

    May 25, 2026Waleed Razzaq, Yun-Bo ZhaoRepresentation LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Automation, University of Science & Technology of China, Hefei, China · Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center

  15. A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

    May 21, 2026Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. MuttaqiUncertainty QuantificationTime Series Forecasting

    School of Engineering, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC 3216, Australia · ARC Training Centre in Energy Technologies for Future Grids, School of Engineering, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia

  16. GeoFlowVLM: Geometry-Aware Joint Uncertainty for Frozen Vision-Language Embedding

    May 13, 2026Mayank Nautiyal, Li Ju, Andreas Hellander +2Cross-Modal LearningFlow Matching

    Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden · SciLifeLab, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

  17. The Limits of AI-Driven Allocation: Optimal Screening under Aleatoric Uncertainty

    May 8, 2026Santiago Cortes-Gomez, Mateo Dulce Rubio, Carlos Patino +1Aleatoric UncertaintyDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University · Center for Data Science, New York University · University of Amsterdam

  18. Uncertainty-Aware Reward Discounting for Mitigating Reward Hacking

    Apr 29, 2026Disha SinghaReward HackingReinforcement Learning

  19. Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

    Apr 28, 2026Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung +1Uncertainty QuantificationIn-Context Learning

    POSTECH

  20. Credal Concept Bottleneck Models for Epistemic-Aleatoric Uncertainty Decomposition

    Apr 27, 2026Tanmoy Mukherjee, Thomas Bailleux, Pierre Marquis +1Uncertainty QuantificationConcept Bottleneck Models

    Univ. Artois, CNRS, CRIL, France · Institut Universitaire de France

  21. Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification

    Apr 18, 2026Kimia Hamidieh, Veronika Thost, Walter Gerych +2Selective PredictionConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    1MIT · MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab · 3WPI +1

  22. Retrieval-Augmented Generation Must Move Beyond Factual Grounding to Represent Diverse Opinions

    Apr 13, 2026Aditya Agrawal, Alwarappan Nakkiran, Aman Singh Thakur +2Retrieval-Augmented GenerationAleatoric Uncertainty

  23. Quantification of Credal Uncertainty: A Distance-Based Approach

    Mar 28, 2026Xabier Gonzalez-Garcia, Siu Lun Chau, Julian Rodemann +6Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Dept. of Statistics, CS & Mathematics, Public Univ. of Navarre · EPIC Lab, Nanyang Technological Univ. Singapore · Rational Intelligence Lab, CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security +7

  24. Rethinking Uncertainty Quantification and Entanglement in Image Segmentation

    Mar 19, 2026Jakob Lønborg Christensen, Vedrana Andersen Dahl, Morten Rieger Hannemose +2Uncertainty QuantificationDeep Ensembles

    Technical University of Denmark, DTU Compute · University of Lucerne, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Switzerland

  25. Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Physics-Informed Neural Networks. Application to Insulation Material Degradation Prognostics

    Jan 7, 2026Ibai Ramirez, Jokin Alcibar, Joel Pino +2Bayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electronics and Computer Science Mondragon University Arrasate-Mondragon, 20500, Spain · CARTIF Technology Centre Valladolid, 47151, Spain · Department of Physical Chemistry University of the Basque Country (EHU)[cs.LG] Basque Centre for Applied Mathematics (BCAM) Leioa, 20018, Spain +1

  26. Uncertainty Quantification for Regression: A Unified Framework based on kernel scores

    Oct 29, 2025Christopher Bülte, Yusuf Sale, Gitta Kutyniok +1Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    LMU Munich · 2Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · 3DLR-German Aerospace Center +2

  27. CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk

    Jul 10, 2025Ilia Azizi, Juraj Bodik, Jakob Heiss +1Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    Department of Operations, HEC, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · BegooAI, Switzerland · Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, USA +1

  28. An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression

    Apr 25, 2025Christopher Bülte, Yusuf Sale, Timo Löhr +3Uncertainty QuantificationAleatoric Uncertainty

    1LMU Munich · 2Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · 3DLR-German Aerospace Center +2

  29. Decomposing LLM-Judge Uncertainty to Target Expert Labels

    Date pendingRyan LailAnnotator DisagreementLLM-as-a-Judge

    Composo AI