Aug 13, 2026 · cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save
Milan Zdravković
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering University of Niš ul. Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, 18000 Niš, Serbia
The paper introduces the ante-hoc Explainable AI methodology to assess the global feature importance of the Machine Learning models used for heat demand forecasting in intelligent control of District Heating Systems, with motivation to facilitate their interpretability and trustworthiness, hence addressing the challenges related to adherence to communal standards, customer satisfaction and liability risks. Methodology includes use of four different approaches, namely intrinsic interpretability of Gradient Boosting method and selected post-hoc methods, namely Partial Dependence, Accumulated Local Effects and SHAP. None of the selected methods assume feature permutation or perturbations which can introduce bias due to introduction of random unrealistic values of data instances. Discussion of results is provided, including the assessment of complementarities where applicable, with specific interpretations in context of the district heating processes.