Crop Yield Prediction

Reliable, timely crop-yield forecasts are essential for market stability and risk management, yet many approaches rely on costly or hard-to-scale inputs. We present a frugal, transferable, and architecture-agnostic deep learning framework that uses routine weather as the only time-varying input plus two lightweight static context inputs (crop year and an agro-environmental label) to capture long-run change and regional heterogeneity, while supporting multiple sequence encoders under identical data requirements. Using a 20-season Brazilian soybean case study (2001/02-2020/21) with leave-one-year-out cross-validation, we benchmark MLP, CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, a Transformer encoder and the Mamba state-space model against linear ridge regression and a five-year moving-average "farmer" baseline. All deep learning variants outperform ridge, and all sequential encoders surpass the non-sequential MLP. The Transformer achieves the best national accuracy (RMSE 149 kg ha^-1; rRMSE 5.3%; R^2 = 0.784), reducing error by 47.6% relative to the farmer baseline. In-season forecasts improve monotonically from early- to late-season issuance, reaching approximately 50% lower error than the baseline at the latest forecast point. Ablations indicate that the agro-environmental label and spatial instance expansion (multiple grid-node weather sequences per municipality-year) contribute positively without increasing input complexity. SHAP diagnostics suggest crop year explains most of the long-run trajectory, whereas within-season weather and agro-environmental context primarily drive interannual deviations, with moisture/cloud and thermal-demand variables dominating. Overall, the framework is straightforward to deploy across other crops and geographic regions and is naturally compatible with operational weather forecasts for routine monitoring.

Accurate yield forecasting at the individual-plant level is critical for precision agriculture and supply-chain planning, yet public datasets capturing both visual growth dynamics and per-plant measurement labels are scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel, annotated image time-series dataset of 691 sweet pepper plants monitored over two growing seasons, comprising 4837 images with per-plant fruit counts categorized by maturity. We propose a multimodal deep learning framework that fuses high-dimensional image features, extracted using the DinoV3 encoder, with numerical count measurements. Our architecture utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to model temporal dependencies and handles irregular sampling intervals common in greenhouse monitoring. Through quantitative experiments, we demonstrate that this multimodal approach reduces RMSE over a persistence baseline by 33% and 38% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively, with a further 1.2% average gain over a measurement-only model. Furthermore, we employ Deep Ensembles and Gaussian Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates, with an Uncertainty Calibration Error (UCE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.89 depending on the cross-season evaluation direction, offering a principled confidence signal for real-world agricultural decision-making. We release the dataset and code to support reproducible research and to accelerate development of data-driven yield forecasting methods for horticultural crops.

Remote sensing has become an increasingly valuable tool for agricultural monitoring, particularly through the use of publicly available satellite imagery. However, effectively integrating domain knowledge into machine learning methods remains challenging. This study presents a real-world example of early sugar beet harvest yield forecasting from purely optical Sentinel-2 imagery, demonstrating how a tight integration of domain knowledge and machine learning can lead to synergistic gains. We empirically find that using very small vision transformer patch sizes and all available Sentinel-2 spectral bands improves our model despite being uncommon design choices in the domain. As a practical contribution, we were able to identify a large fraction of low-yield fields in a different year early on in the growth cycle through a modified training setup and a ranking-based detection of underperforming fields.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been widely used to estimate agricultural variables across diverse contexts. However, because the quantity and quality of training data strongly influence performance of ML algorithms, their use can be constrained by limited or incomplete reference data. Synthetic Data Generation (SDG) offers a practical approach to address this issue by producing artificial but realistic samples that preserve key characteristics of the original data. Building on teacher-student knowledge transfer and in-context learning for tabular data, this study proposes a Task-Conditioned SDG (TCSDG) algorithm that pairs a Bayesian Network generator with a transformer-based tabular foundation model (TabICL). The proposed algorithm was evaluated on two agricultural prediction tasks: crop yield prediction and crop type classification. Six benchmark SDG algorithms were also utilized to compare their performance with that of TCSDG. Across twelve study sites, two training-data fractions, four multiplication ratios, and three predictive ML algorithms, augmenting the original data with TCSDG-generated synthetic data improved ML performance in 89% of the crop type classification experiments and 74% of the crop yield prediction experiments. TCSDG also substantially outperformed benchmark SDG algorithms and was the only method to consistently improve ML performance across both tasks at the aggregate level. The study demonstrates that carefully designed and processed synthetic data can improve ML performance in precision-agriculture applications. TCSDG offers a practical and extensible framework for generating synthetic data that supports downstream ML agricultural prediction. The full implementation of TCSDG is publicly available as open source at https://github.com/HamidEbrahimy/TCSDG.

Sierra Leone's agriculture operates with almost no data-driven decision support, and no published machine learning study has examined the country's crop yields. We ask whether rice yield can be forecast from data Sierra Leone currently has. Using 25 years of FAOSTAT production data (2000-2024) for nine major crops, we train XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest under a strict anti-leakage protocol with expanding-window walk-forward evaluation across seven held-out years, benchmarked against naive persistence. No model trained on crop statistics alone outperforms persistence. Augmenting with free satellite climate data (CHIRPS rainfall, NASA POWER temperature) reverses this result: a climate-only XGBoost reduces forecast error by one third (RMSE 284 vs 428 kg/ha), a gain that holds for a linear model and is robust to excluding the anomalous 2018 season. Early-season (May-June) rainfall is the dominant predictor, implying seasonal yield risk is observable months before harvest. No model anticipated the 2018 collapse, whose origins were institutional rather than climatic. We translate the findings into policy recommendations for Sierra Leone's Feed Salone Strategy, with a fully open-source pipeline.

Accurate crop yield prediction is crucial for sustainable agriculture and global food security. While existing methods are predominantly developed for single-crop prediction, they often struggle to generalize across diverse crop types, without addressing the unique crop phenological responses that are dynamically modulated by complex weather patterns. In this paper, we propose PhenoYieldNet, a multi-crop yield prediction framework that learns crop-specific phenology by explicitly modeling their responses with temporal drivers. Specifically, we develop a crop-aware temporal decoder consisting of a Crop Phenology Bank (CPB) and a Crop Phenology Attention (CPA) module. The CPB integrates a set of learnable embeddings, which leverage a query to guide the CPA module to learn the most relevant phenology patterns for the specific crop. And the CPA module explicitly captures multi-scale trend and variation components to construct temporal contexts, enabling the model to dynamically adjust the attention across different phenological stages. To learn robust and generalizable features for multi-crop prediction, the encoder is initialized with a pre-trained foundation model, and further adapted via a self-supervised Temporal Contrastive Adaptation strategy to align with agricultural temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments conducted on multi-crop datasets indicate that our proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities across different regions and crops.

Global food security depends on predicting crop responses to climate variability, yet process based crop models remain too computationally expensive for large scale exploration of genotype and environment interactions. Here we develop a probabilistic neural emulator of APSIM that reproduces key maize growth processes across 13 outputs with high fidelity (with R^2 of 0.93) while reducing simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Trained on two million simulations spanning diverse genetic, soil, and management conditions, and augmented with a convolutional synthetic weather generator that produces physically consistent climate sequences, the framework enables scalable exploration of crop responses under realistic and diverse environmental inputs while providing calibrated predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian inference. Applying this framework across 100,000 trait configurations, six soil environments in Iowa and Illinois, and climate projections through the year 2100 under two emissions scenarios, we identify 181 maize trait combinations that consistently maintain high yield across all tested conditionsan analysis infeasible with the mechanistic model alone. We further show that radiation use efficiency and temperature driven root dynamics are dominant drivers of yield resilience. Notably, projected yield distributions vary substantially across locations, with some lower productivity sites exhibiting yield increases under future climate scenarios, indicating that climate change may reshape regional yield potential in nonintuitive ways. These results demonstrate how uncertainty aware emulation transforms mechanistic crop simulation from a computational bottleneck into an on demand discovery engine, one capable of interrogating the full genotype, environment and management space at a scale no process-based model can match.

Accurate crop yield forecasting in commercial soft fruit production is constrained by the data available in typical commercial farm records, which lack the sensor networks, satellite imagery, and high-resolution meteorological inputs that most state-of-the-art approaches assume. We propose a structured LLM agent framework that performs post-hoc correction of existing model predictions, encoding agricultural domain knowledge across tools for phase detection, bias learning, and range validation. Evaluated on a proprietary strawberry yield dataset and a public USDA corn harvest dataset, agent refinement of XGBoost reduced MAE by 20% and MASE by 56% on strawberry, with consistent improvements across Moirai2 (MAE 24%, MASE 22%) and Random Forest (MAE 28%, MASE 66%) baselines. Using Llama 3.1 8B as the agent produced the strongest corrections across all configurations; LLaVA 13B showed inconsistent gains, highlighting sensitivity to the choice of refinement model.

Plant breeding underpins global food security through incremental, accumulating improvements in crop yield, quality and sustainability, achieved via repeated cycles of crop ranking, selection and crossing. Climate change disrupts this process by altering local growing conditions, thereby shifting the relative performance of crop genotypes. Predicting these relative changes in yield is critical for food security. Yet, this problem remains an open challenge in plant breeding, and relatively unexplored within the AI community. We propose MixINN, an approach that first isolates high-quality genotype-environment interaction labels using mixed models, and then predicts these interactions for new crop varieties in future environmental conditions with a deep neural network. We evaluate our method on a corn multi-environment trial across the continental United States and show improved prediction of genotype ranking over current plant breeding methods. MixINN demonstrated superior performance in identifying the 20% most productive corn genotypes, leading to a 5.8% higher average yield, which further improved to 7.2% when targeting specific growing environments. These are competitive results for real-world breeding programs, demonstrating the potential of AI research in accelerating the development of climate-adapted crops, and improving future food security under climate change.

Accurate predictions of smallholder maize yields across national boundaries are critical for food security planning in sub-Saharan Africa, yet most published benchmarks report within-country performance that overstates true generalisability. This paper evaluates whether geospatial foundation model embeddings, specifically Prithvi-EO-1.0-100M and ViT-Base, outperform traditional Sentinel-2 spectral features under a Leave-One-Country-Out cross-validation scheme on 6,404 maize field observations from five African countries. The results show a clear generalisability gap: within-country random cross-validation yields moderate R^2 values, but all feature sets perform poorly under cross-country testing, with universally negative R^2. Frozen Prithvi-EO embeddings provide no meaningful advantage over engineered spectral features for cross-country prediction in this setting. The paper argues that the main limitation is a shift in yield distribution between countries rather than representation quality and releases a reproducible negative benchmark for future work.

Crop yield prediction is one of the most important challenge, which is crucial to world food security and policy-making decisions. The conventional forecasting techniques are limited in their accuracy with reference to the fact that they utilize static data sources that do not reflect the dynamic and intricate relationships that exist between the variables of the environment over time [5,13]. This paper presents Attention-Based Multi-Modal Deep Learning Framework (ABMMDLF), which is suggested to be used in high-accuracy spatio-temporal crop yield prediction. The model we use combines multi-year satellite imagery, high-resolution time-series of meteorological data and initial soil properties as opposed to the traditional models which use only one of the aforementioned factors [12, 21]. The main architecture involves the use of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to extract spatial features and a Temporal Attention Mechanism to adaptively weight important phenological periods targeted by the algorithm to change over time and condition on spatial features of images and video sequences. As can be experimentally seen, the proposed research work provides an R^2 score of 0.89, which is far better than the baseline models do.