Decision-Making under Uncertainty

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Minimization Using Samples: Algorithms, Convergence Rates, and Applications

    Aug 7, 2026Sumedh Gupte, Prashanth L. A., Sanjay P. BhatStochastic Optimization ConvergencePortfolio Optimization

    TCS Research, IIIT-H Research Park, Hyderabad, 500032, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India

  2. Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

    Aug 6, 2026Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi +3Computational Cognitive ModelingValue of Information

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan · Laboratoire Conception de Produits et Innovation (LCPI), Arts et M´etiers ParisTech, 151 Boulevard de l’Hˆopital, 75013 Paris, France

  3. Risk-Aware Decision Policies for Agents Under Noisy Perception

    Aug 5, 2026David SzczecinaArtificial LifeAgent-Based Modeling

    University of Waterloo, Canada

  4. Posture and Sustainment Optimization Under Adversarial Uncertainty

    Aug 5, 2026Amelie Norris, Alyssa Lee, Natan Vidra +1Robust OptimizationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

  5. Local Violation Certification for Linear Predict-Then-Optimize Pipelines

    Aug 5, 2026Ş. İlker Birbil, Wenhao ChiAlgorithmic AuditingPredict-Then-Optimize

    Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University

  6. Analytic Planning under Uncertainty with Moment Closure

    Aug 3, 2026Shishir Sharma, Doina PrecupDecision-Making under UncertaintyModel-Based RL

    1McGill University, Montreal, Canada · 2Mila – Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute, Montreal, Canada

  7. Optimizing Minimax Regret in Uncertain MDPs with Small Sets of Policies

    Aug 3, 2026Sterre Lutz, Daniël Vos, Matthijs T. J. Spaan +1Markov Decision ProcessesBranch and Bound

    Delft University of Technology

  8. A Generalized-Bayes Perspective on Counterfactual Explanations: Posterior-Based Decision-Making and Evaluation

    Jul 31, 2026Keita KinjoCounterfactual EvaluationCounterfactual Explanations

    Faculty of Business, Kyoritsu Women’s University

  9. Strategies for Milestone-driven Start-ups in Multi-activity Settings

    Jul 30, 2026Zhengli WangStochastic Optimal ControlDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Faculty of Business & Economics, the University of Hong Kong

  10. Belief-Guided Decision Making with Uncertainty Gating in the Game of Go

    Jul 29, 2026Mehrad Yaghoubi, Azam Bastanfard, Abbas Jalilvand +1Game-Playing AgentsDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Department of Computer Engineering, Ka.C, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran

  11. More Data, Worse Decisions? Preference Reversals in Neural Networks under Gram Incompatibility

    Jul 28, 2026Yanli Yan, Yuanzheng Li, Yong Zhao +2Neural Network GeneralizationNeural Representation Geometry

    Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan, China

  12. AI Strategy: How to Choose What AI Product to Implement

    Jul 26, 2026Foster Provost, Panos IpeirotisAI-Assisted Decision MakingDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Stern School of Business, New York University

  13. TRUST-ESD: A Risk-Calibrated and Governance-Aware AI Framework for Enterprise Strategic Decision Support Under Uncertainty

    Jul 22, 2026Tian Qiu, Li Yan, Mahabubur Rahman Miraj +3AI-Assisted Decision MakingExplainable Artificial Intelligence

    School of Economics and Management, Xinyu University, Xinyu, China · College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China · School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University +2

  14. Long-Term Sequential Decision Making under Risk

    Jul 22, 2026Irmaan, Mirzanejad, Nadjet Bourdache +1Markov Decision ProcessesDynamic Programming

    Mohammad · Université de Caen Normandie, ENSICAEN, CNRS, Normandie Univ, GREYC UMR 6072, France

  15. Optimizing Regret

    Jul 21, 2026Irene AldridgeGradient DescentRegret Minimization

    Risk AI Center

  16. Weak-to-Strong Learning in Decision Making

    Jul 20, 2026Jingwei Ji, Renyuan XuStochastic OptimizationDecision-Focused Learning

    Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

  17. Rationalizing Boltzmann Rationality: An Axiomatic Characterization of Entropy-Regularized Policies

    Jul 19, 2026Silviu PitisMarkov Decision ProcessesMaximum Entropy RL

    University of Michigan

  18. Expected Free Energy as Belief-Dependent Utility for rho-POMDPs

    Jul 18, 2026Patrick Cooper, Alvaro VelasquezFree Energy CalculationActive Inference

    Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

  19. A Causal Markov Condition for Value

    Jul 18, 2026Olav Benjamin VassendDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    University of Inland Norway

  20. Evaluating Epistemic Uncertainty: Beyond OOD Detection and Active Learning

    Jul 16, 2026Jakub Paplhám, Willem Waegeman, Eyke Hüllermeier +1Selective PredictionDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Czech Technical University in Prague · Ghent University · LMU Munich, MCML, DFKI

  21. Decision Making Needs Uncertainty Quantification [Lecture Notes]

    Jul 15, 2026Osvaldo SimeoneUncertainty QuantificationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems, Northeastern University London, One Portsoken Street, London, E1 8PH, UK

  22. Active Noise Floor Estimation for Reliability-Optimal POMDPs: A Value-of-Noise-Information Approach

    Jul 13, 2026Hyung-Jin YoonValue of InformationActive Sensing

    Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Tennessee Technological University, Cookeville, TN 37135, USA

  23. Reproducing human biases in route choice using large language models: Toward scalable behavioral modeling

    Jul 13, 2026Jiangtao Han, Shoufeng Ma, Shuxian Xu +4Cognitive ModelingHuman Behavior Simulation

    College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, China · Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China

  24. Removable Defects: The Economics and Limits of Deliberate Deficiency

    Jul 13, 2026Cheng QianCost-Sensitive LearningSelective Prediction

  25. Robust Bayesian Decision Making under Adversarial Uncertainty

    Jul 9, 2026Haripriya Harikumar, Sammie Katt, Yasir Zubayr Barlas +1Adversarial RobustnessBayesian Decision Theory

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, UK · ELLIS Institute Finland · Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland

  26. Sensitivity to Subjective Expected Utility Maximization: A Methodological Study, with an Illustrative Application to LLM Decision-Making

    Jul 8, 2026Jeff HelznerParameter EstimationParameter Identifiability

  27. Robust Human-AI Complementarity under Uncertainty

    Jul 7, 2026Yewon Byun, Bryan WilderHuman-AI Decision MakingDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University.

  28. Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch

    Jul 7, 2026Yangze Zhou, Yihong Zhou, Thomas Morstyn +1Distributionally Robust OptimizationDecision-Focused Learning

  29. Robust Metaheuristics under Uncertainty for Berth Allocation and Quay Crane Assignment: A Review

    Jul 6, 2026Peilan Xu, Yang Li, Wenjian LuoMetaheuristic OptimizationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China · Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Novel Security Intelligence Technologies, Institute of Cyberspace Security, School of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China

  30. Strategic Buying Agents

    Jul 6, 2026Mingyang Fu, Ming HuSequential Decision MakingOptimal Stopping

    Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto