Event Time Prediction

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3 papers in the last four weeks, down 25% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 30

Sep 21, 2026cs.LG

Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer: Integrating Heterogeneous Context for Process Event Prediction

Event logs arise in a wide range of real-world processes, capturing not only event activities and timestamps but also multi-modal contextual information. Existing event-sequence models, including many temporal point process approaches, primarily model event activities and timestamps while overlooking heterogeneous context, such as numerical measurements, categorical attributes, textual descriptions, and metadata associated with individual events and entire traces. In this paper, we propose Universal Multi-Modal Traceformer (UMT), a unified framework for incorporating heterogeneous process context into next-event prediction. Built on a Transformer backbone, UMT introduces a universal feature encoder that maps diverse feature types into a shared representation space and handles contextual information at both the event and trace levels. UMT further develops a per-event Perceiver module that dynamically weights contextual features and adaptively integrates them into event-token representations. To accommodate the heavy-tailed and potentially multi-modal distribution of inter-arrival times, UMT represents each interval at multiple temporal scales and jointly predicts the corresponding scale-specific quantities. Experiments on 13 real-world event logs show that UMT improves both next-event activity and time prediction over existing approaches.

Fabian Spaeh, Jingxing Fang, Shandian Zhe +1

Celonis

Event Time Prediction Predictive Process Monitoring Multimodal Fusion

Sep 21, 2026physics.plasm-ph

Horizon-Aware Early Event Prediction for Tokamak Disruption Alarms

Reliable disruption prediction is essential for the safe operation of future tokamaks. Existing full-distribution survival methods model the complete residual time-to-disruption distribution, whereas operational decisions primarily depend on disruption risk within a finite prediction horizon. This mismatch motivates introducing Early Event Prediction (EEP) objectives into survival-based disruption prediction. We take Deep Survival Machines (DSM) as the full-distribution baseline and propose applying two established EEP methods to tokamak disruption prediction: Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), which directly predicts disruption probability within a finite horizon, and survTLS, which additionally models the event-time distribution within that horizon. Using a common causal encoder, we compare these methods on DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST. We distinguish threshold-free deadline ranking from validation-selected fixed-policy alarm performance and evaluate prediction horizons and encoder architectures. TLS achieves the best mean alarm performance on DIII-D and EAST, whereas all methods perform poorly on Alcator C-Mod. survTLS does not consistently outperform DSM, suggesting that directly learning horizon-level event probability is more effective than modeling detailed within-horizon event-time distributions in the present setting. Finally, the selected prediction horizons and encoder-ablation results vary across devices, reflecting differences in disruption characteristics.

Takeshi Koshizuka, Takaharu Yaguchi

RIKEN AIP, Japan. · Kyushu University IMI, Fukuoka, Japan.

Event Time Prediction Survival Analysis

Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Aditi Tiwari, Aashrith Bandaru, Heng Ji

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA

Event Time Prediction Selective Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting LLM Reliability

Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery +109

Event Time Prediction Tabular Prediction

Aug 30, 2026cs.LG

INTERVenE: Temporal-Abstraction-Interval Based Transformers for Short-Horizon Medical Event Prediction

Electronic Health Record (EHR) prediction models in the intensive care unit must learn from sparse and irregular measurements while preserving the clinical meaning of time and supporting transparent decision-making. We present INTERVenE, a family of Transformer architectures whose input is an interval-based, knowledge-based temporal abstraction (KBTA), a token stream of named clinical concepts (states, trends, events, contexts) drawn from a curated medical ontology, rather than an unnamed bin index or a raw measurement triplet. This naming layer is what we ask KBTA to do: it makes the model's per-token attributions resolve to clinical concepts by construction. INTERVenE offers two complementary variants: an auto-regressive decoder that generates future abstraction trajectories with a per-step risk readout (localizing \emph{when} and \emph{after which events} risk rises), and a bidirectional encoder for single-pass joint risk and time-to-event prediction. Evaluated on 57,078 MIMIC-IV admissions against GRU-D, STraTS, and KarmaLego, INTERVenE-Enc reaches a support-weighted AUPRC

_w

of 0.672, improving by 0.041 over the strongest neural baseline with non-overlapping 95% bootstrap CIs, while also taking the best AUROC

_w

(0.901) and length-of-stay MAE (44.4,h). INTERVenE-Ar (AUROC

_w

0.854

, AUPRC

_w

0.587

under the same evaluation contract - a strictly harder generative readout) provides a complementary token-level risk trajectory. An input-representation ablation confirms the lift transfers across structured discretizations, positioning KBTA-based intervals as the interpretable substrate that makes per-token attributions resolve to meaningful clinical concepts within the deployed model.

Shahar Oded, Yuval Shahar

The Stein Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel

Event Time Prediction Interpretable ML Clinical Outcome Prediction Electronic Health Records Time Series Transformers

Aug 12, 2026cs.LG

Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods

Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. Each hazard gets two questions, never blended. Using 589 dated outbursts from HMAGLOFDB and several thousand catalogued landslides, we match each event against similar but unfailed sites, and hold every model to a strong simple baseline under spatial cross-validation that withholds whole map tiles, so no model succeeds by recognising a trained-on neighbourhood. Antecedent weather times the trigger at ROC 0.73 for big bursts, 0.83 for landslides, and 0.82 for small floods. Terrain ranks susceptibility only in part: scored naively it appears near 0.9, largely because catalogued failures cluster in wetter ranges; matched against comparable nearby sites the honest figures are 0.76, 0.71, and 0.54 (no better than chance). The burst signal holds within single regions, reaching 0.89 in Nepal alone. Five deep-learning models do not decisively beat a simple gradient-boosted baseline. Three score marginally higher on landslides, a hint too small to confirm. For the lake hazards the baseline wins outright, reproduced by a three-rule decision tree on ruggedness and monsoon rainfall. We close with a ranked Nepal watchlist, a prioritisation aid, not a prediction, and note where free data reaches its limits.

Matthew Kahn, Milan Arjel, Nirmala Adhikari +2

Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, United States of America · Department of Electronics and Computer Engineering, Purwanchal Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Dharan, Nepal · Department of Physics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America +2

Event Time Prediction

Aug 12, 2026cs.LG

Certifying What Helps Customer-Return Timing: A Screen-and-Confirm Test for Conditioning Signals, and Why Decay Is Nearly Enough

Practitioners enrich customer-return models with ever more signals (lifetime value, category, recency/frequency, calendar, geography), and the temporal-point-process (TPP) literature follows suit with covariate- and external-covariate-conditioned intensities. But does any of it improve the timing, and how would you know? A null ("feature X doesn't help") is only meaningful if the model could have found a signal. We make two contributions--a method and a measurement--to answer this credibly. (i) A screen-and-confirm protocol that certifies whether a candidate signal improves a TPP's event-timing likelihood: a positive control plants a coupling of known strength and confirms the model recovers it, so a real-data null can be read as "no signal" rather than "weak method." The control is validated for categorical and continuous encodings, and on a real clock-driven dataset (NYC taxi hour-of-day). (ii) A model-free ceiling quantifying how little of customer-return timing is point-predictable at all (a single-digit percentage of gap variance from any covariate; returns are near-memoryless). With these we certify a clean result on three public benchmarks (Amazon, Taobao, RetailRocket) and a real marketplace (Thumbtack): the inter-event clock--continuous-time decay, long known to beat frozen-intensity models--is nearly sufficient, and the conditioning the field keeps adding is redundant or harmful on top of it (statistically null on the public benchmarks, at most 0.06 NLL; null to mildly harmful on the marketplace). We do not claim to discover that decay helps; our contribution is the tools that turn "conditioning doesn't help" into a checkable, certified statement--plus an honest-evaluation account of the read-out/leakage pitfalls we hit and retracted.

Sang Su Lee, Vineeth Loganathan, Shishir Dash +1

Thumbtack, Inc. San Francisco, CA, USA

Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Jul 26, 2026cs.SI

GTIN: A Unified Framework for Joint Event and Time Prediction in Temporal Graphs

Temporal graphs are increasingly used to model dynamic systems in diverse domains such as social networks, financial networks, and traffic networks. Predicting both what the next event will be and when it will occur in these systems is crucial for understanding and anticipating complex behaviors, but has not been studied much. To address this gap, we propose a unified mathematical framework capable of capturing varying degrees of complexity across temporal graphs. Our framework is flexible and expressive enough to accommodate a wide range of network structures and temporal dynamics. Building upon this analysis, we introduce our novel approach for jointly predicting the next event and its occurrence time. Empirical evaluations across multiple datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing techniques, particularly in scenarios involving irregular event patterns and complex temporal dependencies. These findings highlight the potential of our framework as a robust foundation for future research in temporal event prediction.

Mohammad Ostadmohammadi, Sepehr Kazemi, Hamid R. Rabiee

Department of Computer Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran · Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran · Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave., Tehran, Iran

Event Time Prediction Dynamic Graph Learning

Jul 16, 2026cs.LG

GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.

Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai +2

Yunnan Key Laboratory of Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis, Yunnan University, Kunming, China · Insilicom LLC, Peabody, MA, USA · University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA

Event Time Prediction Temporal Link Prediction Temporal KGs

Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

A Temporal Machine Learning-Based Time-to-Event Model for Predicting ALS Progression and Healthcare Utilization

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and heterogeneous neurodegenerative disease in which predicting clinically meaningful milestones, such as assistive device use, remains challenging. We developed a time-to-event, digital-twin-inspired framework that integrates longitudinal ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) trajectories with survival modeling to support individualized prediction of functional decline and assistive device utilization. We constructed a harmonized longitudinal dataset by integrating diagnosis records, ALSFRS-R assessments, activities of daily living, and demographic information, followed by preprocessing to ensure data quality, temporal alignment, and cohort consistency. Correlation-based clustering identified coherent functional domains spanning bulbar, upper limb, axial, lower limb, and respiratory systems. Generalized additive mixed models characterized nonlinear, domain-specific functional decline across all domains. In addition, a temporal machine learning model was developed to predict longitudinal functional decline and capture stage-dependent disease progression. Cox proportional hazards modeling further identified lower limb function, particularly walking and stair climbing, as the strongest predictors of earlier wheelchair access. Building on these results, we implemented a digital twin-inspired temporal machine learning-based time-to-event (TTE) model that generates individualized survival curves and dynamically predicts wheelchair-free survival. This framework provides a scalable, interpretable, and clinically actionable approach for linking ALS progression with personalized decision support, with applications in proactive care planning, clinical trial stratification, and precision medicine.

Zongliang Yue, Qi Li, Terry Heiman-Patterson +3

Department of Health Outcomes Research and Policy, Harrison College of Pharmacy, Auburn University Auburn, AL, USA

Event Time Prediction Survival Analysis Clinical Outcome Prediction

Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

ReDiTT: Retrieval Augmented Conditional Diffusion Transformers for Asynchronous Time Series

We present a diffusion based model for asynchronous time series prediction, where the goal is to predict the next inter event time and event type. To address the inherent uncertainty of future events, we introduce ReDiTT, a retrieval augmented conditional diffusion transformer that operates in latent space. ReDiTT retrieves structurally similar latent sequences from a memory bank during both training and inference and incorporates them as reference conditions through cross attention. This retrieval based conditioning allows the model to attend to relevant temporal dynamics and provides global structural guidance for generation. As a result, ReDiTT stabilizes long horizon forecasting and improves sample diversity. Experiments on seven real world datasets demonstrate state of the art performance on next event prediction and long horizon forecasting. Our code is available at https://github.com/BorealisAI/ReDiTT.

Saiyue Lyu, Zhitian Zhang, Ruizhi Deng +1

Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia · Work done during an internship at RBC Borealis. · RBC Borealis

Irregular Time-Series Modeling Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes Diffusion Transformer Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting Conditional Diffusion Models

Jun 29, 2026stat.ML

Dynamic Prediction of Alternating Recurrent Events via Neural Network

Alternating recurrent events -- event-times of a specific nature that trigger a secondary refractory period -- occur in a wide-range of fields, including behavioral science, criminal justice, and biostatistics. Analysis of these events requires careful attention to the statistical nuance, including correlated observations and repeated outcomes subject to potential censoring. We develop an online dynamic prediction framework appropriate for predicting subsequent alternating recurrent events, by developing neural network theory for a statistical audiences and applying inverse probability weighted pseudo-observations. The proposed model is applied to dynamically predict alternating recurrent event-free time, showing good performance in simulation, and outstanding capability in application to predicting periods of low mood for first-year medical residents. We close with a discussion.

Abigail Loe, Susan Murry, Zhenke Wu

Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Macalester College, Saint Paul, Minnesota, U.S.A. · Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A.

Event Time Prediction Survival Analysis Clinical Outcome Prediction

Jun 16, 2026cs.SD

Next-Turn: Duration-Aware Streaming Endpoint Detection via Time-to-Next-Speech-Onset Prediction

Endpoint detection (EPD) is essential for natural turn-taking in streaming speech systems. However, reliably determining the endpoint of an utterance is challenging because speakers often pause mid-utterance due to hesitations and disfluencies. Semantic EPD has emerged as a promising direction to address this issue but is hindered by ambiguous supervision and strict streaming constraints. We propose Next-Turn that uses the time-to-next-speech-onset as the training objective, where targets are derived directly from speech timestamps and require no additional annotation. Experiments show that the proposed method outperforms conventional acoustic and recent semantic EPD baselines, achieving a 25.9% absolute improvement in endpoint accuracy within 320 ms over the strongest baseline. In addition, joint training with the duration-aware objective complements standard binary EPD, with gains that increase monotonically with increasing pauses.

Tristan Tsoi, Jiajun Deng, Yingke Zhu +5

Central Media Technology Institute, Huawei · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Nanyang Technological University

Event Time Prediction Streaming ASR Speech Processing Turn-Taking in Dialogue

Jun 14, 2026cs.LG

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.

Amit Arnold Levy

University of Oxford

Event Time Prediction RL for Language Models Probabilistic Forecasting RL Fine-Tuning

Jun 13, 2026cs.CL

When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction

Predicting the timing of individual and collective panic emotional arousal before manifestation is essential for timely emergency intervention. Existing methods incorporate cognitive elements but none of them model emotion in the generative direction of the arousal process, leaving arousal timing undetermined. We argue that grounding prediction in appraisal emotion theory is necessary because it models this process explicitly in its natural generative direction, but three problems must be solved. (1) Appraisal theory posits that emotion arises from simultaneous evaluation across multiple threat dimensions, yet no prior work fuses these inputs into risk perception; (2) Existing models are trained in the opposite, behavior-bridged direction, recovering emotion merely as a post-hoc correlate of behavior; (3) Approaches that adopt LLMs as the primary decision-maker yet overlook the fragility and hallucination-proneness of their outputs. We introduce PanicCognitivePath (PCP) to address all three. A Psychological Safety Distance (PSD) model, grounded in psychological distance theory, maps four-domain signals (physical, social, cognitive, and informational) into a unified risk metric that gates entry to cognitive reasoning. An explicit Emotion node grounded in appraisal emotion theory is introduced into BDI, forming a novel Belief-Desire-Emotion-Intention (BDEI) pathway that couples threat appraisal directly to emotional arousal. Inverting the conventional LLM-as-decision-maker paradigm, PCP confines the LLM to parameter estimation for the Belief-to-Desire transition, restricting hallucinations to a single step and curbing their accumulation across steps. Experiments on Hurricane Sandy show PCP improves individual prediction accuracy by 10.68% over baselines, reduces peak count error to 7.07%.

Mengzhu Liu, Long Qin, Chuan Ai +7

National Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligent Modeling and Simulation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan Province, China · College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China +1

Event Time Prediction Computational Cognitive Modeling Human Behavior Prediction Emotion Recognition

Jun 13, 2026cs.AI

Fusion is not one-size-fits-all: Cross-Modal Representation Alignment for Time-to-Event Modeling

Accurate time-to-event (TTE) prediction from multimodal clinical data remains challenging due to modality imbalance and distribution shift. We introduce a foundation model-driven framework for cross-modal representation alignment between CT imaging and longitudinal EHR data, designed to generalize across tasks and institutions. CT and EHR modalities are encoded independently using domain-specific foundation models and aligned in a shared latent space through four principled fusion strategies: late fusion, contrastive alignment, cross-attention, and co-attention. We evaluate two clinically distinct TTE tasks: pulmonary embolism (PE) mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, on large-scale multi-institutional cohorts (PE: N=3,099 train; 1,098 internal; 435 external; CVD: N=2,951 train; 837 internal; 682 external). Fusion consistently improves concordance index by 1.5-5.4% over unimodal baselines when modalities contribute comparably. Overall, contrastive multimodal fusion, particularly with CLMBR representations, provided the most consistent and statistically robust improvements, especially for PE mortality prediction. For MACE, cross-attention (one-hot) achieved the highest internal performance and image-guided co-attention achieved the best external performance. We therefore introduce a generalizable foundation model-based cross-modal alignment framework and provide the first systematic analysis of fusion behavior under modality imbalance in TTE prediction. Our results establish task-aware multimodal alignment as a necessary design principle for robust generalization and scalable clinical deployment.

Zhemin Zhang, Weijie Chen, David Le +7

Arizona State University · Mayo Clinic

Event Time Prediction Multimodal Robustness Cross-Modal Alignment Clinical Outcome Prediction Multimodal Survival Analysis Multimodal Fusion

Jun 10, 2026cs.CL

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding +1

Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge

Event Time Prediction LLM Agent Evaluation Forecasting Benchmarks Probabilistic Forecasting Temporal Data Leakage

May 31, 2026cs.LG

GLIDE: Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Point Processes

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) provide a principled framework for modeling asynchronous events in continuous time and space. Recent diffusion-based approaches offer a flexible alternative to deterministic prediction by modeling complex conditional distributions, but their application to STPPs remains challenging: reverse sampling from pure noise is costly, and weak structural constraints in sparse spatial domains can lead to poorly localized probability mass. We propose \textbf{GLIDE} (Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation), a conditional diffusion framework for next-event modeling in STPPs. GLIDE organizes historical events into a multi-scale historical graph and encodes temporal evolution and spatial topology through a dual-stream architecture, yielding a structured conditioning context for a dual-branch diffusion denoiser. It further introduces a prior-guided leap inference mechanism, in which a lightweight mean predictor provides a deterministic anchor and the reverse process starts from an intermediate diffusion step instead of from pure Gaussian noise. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets show that GLIDE improves both distribution fitting and next-event prediction, with the largest gains appearing on the spatial side. The results also indicate that prior-guided leap inference substantially reduces reverse-sampling cost while preserving the stochastic generation capability of diffusion models.

Guanyu Zhou, Yao Liu, Yanglei Gan +5

University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China

Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes Conditional Diffusion Models Diffusion Model Inference Acceleration

May 31, 2026cs.LG

UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA

Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction on checkout page is crucial in instant logistics for enhancing user satisfaction, optimizing dispatching, and controlling operational costs. In international on-demand delivery platforms, where ETA data originates from diverse countries or regions with different patterns, multi-domain modeling is of great importance and has been widely adopted. However, existing methods still face three critical challenges in real-world deployment. First, current multi-domain models struggle to generalize to completely unseen domains, failing to achieve zero-shot prediction during the initial cold-start phase. Second, cross-domain feature spaces are often assumed to be consistent, whereas new domains commonly suffer from structural missingness of offline (statistical) features due to the lack of historical data. Third, such feature missingness often compels industrial systems to model mature and cold-start domains separately, hindering knowledge transfer and increasing maintenance overhead. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{UME}, a \textbf{U}nified \textbf{M}eta-generalization framework for \textbf{E}TA. Specifically, UME integrates a unified dual-branch architecture with a novel meta-learning mechanism that employs a hypernetwork-based meta learner. By leveraging domain-level knowledge and instance-level context, the meta learner empowers three meta modules to dynamically modulate feature gating, expert attention, and final prediction, capturing cross-domain correlations and facilitating intra-domain adaptation. A knowledge distillation strategy is further introduce to enhance performance. UME has now been deployed in Meituan-keeta delivery platform (the largest international food delivery platform in China). Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate that UME significantly outperforms existing baselines.

Duo Wang, Qiong Wu, Jianguo Wu +9

Peking University · Meituan

Event Time Prediction Meta-Learning Cross-Domain Generalization

May 21, 2026cs.AI

Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for forecasting scientific progress under controlled knowledge constraints. We present CUSP (Cutoff-conditioned Unseen Scientific Progress), a multi-disciplinary and event-level benchmark that evaluates scientific forecasting in AI systems through feasibility assessment, mechanistic reasoning, generative solution design, and temporal prediction. Across 4,760 scientific events, we observe systematic and domain-dependent limitations in current frontier models. While models can identify plausible research directions from competing candidates, they fail to reliably predict whether scientific advances will be realized and systematically misestimate when they will occur. Performance is highly heterogeneous across domains, with the timing of AI progress more predictable than advances in biology, chemistry, and physics. Performance is largely insensitive to whether events occur before or after the training cutoff, suggesting these limitations cannot be explained solely by knowledge exposure in training data. Under controlled information access, additional pre-cutoff knowledge improves performance but does not close the gap to full-information settings, which becomes more pronounced for high-citation advances. Models also exhibit systematic overconfidence and strong response biases, indicating unreliable uncertainty estimation. Taken together, current AI systems fall short as predictive tools for scientific progress. Access to prior knowledge does not translate into reliable forecasting, and performance benefits more from post-event information than from forward-looking prediction.

Sean Wu, Pan Lu, Yupeng Chen +7

University of Oxford · Stanford University · Allen Institute for AI +1

Event Time Prediction Scientific Discovery Forecasting Benchmarks

May 11, 2026cs.LG

HEPA: A Self-Supervised Horizon-Conditioned Event Predictive Architecture for Time Series

Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.

Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni +3

1ETH Zurich · 2Forgis · University of Vienna

Event Time Prediction Self-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Time Series Transformers

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series

Accurate early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental observations is essential for timely intervention and more sustainable crop protection. However, many existing studies formulate disease prediction as daily presence classification, which can favor persistence-driven predictions and provide only limited support for actionable short-horizon warning. In this paper, we present an event-based approach for early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental time series and evaluate it through a vineyard case study. Rather than predicting daily disease status, the task is reformulated to predict transitions into annotated disease-risk periods within a future window of 3-7 days. To reduce fragmentation caused by short interruptions in the binary labels, new events are defined only after a minimum disease-free gap. This formulation encourages models to capture environmental precursors associated with upcoming risk periods instead of merely reproducing temporal persistence. Using multi-year agro-meteorological data, we construct input representations that capture humidity dynamics, rainfall accumulation, temperature variability, and seasonal structure through cyclic temporal encoding. We evaluate representative methods from classical machine learning and deep learning, including XGBoost, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), using both standard classification metrics and an event-oriented early warning protocol. The results show that the event-based formulation supports practical short-horizon warning, while the compared models exhibit distinct trade-offs between event recall, lead time, and false-alert behavior. Overall, the study underscores the importance of problem formulation in environmental time-series learning and demonstrates the value of event-based prediction for vineyard disease warning systems.

Ivica Dimitrovski, Ivan Kitanovski, Danco Davcev +2

Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering University Ss Cyril and Methodius Skopje 1000, North Macedonia

Event Time Prediction Time Series Forecasting

May 2, 2026physics.ins-det

Forecasting Source Stability in Scientific Experiments using Temporal Learning Models: A Case Study from Tritium Monitoring

The Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino Experiment (KATRIN) aims to measure the absolute neutrino mass with unprecedented sensitivity, requiring precise monitoring of the windowless gaseous tritium source, where tritium beta decay occurs. To track variations of the source activity, beta-induced X-ray spectroscopy provides real-time diagnostics. However, traditional drift detection methods struggle with the infrequent and transient nature of instability events in gaseous tritium. This study bridges the gap between state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models and real-world experimental applications by leveraging deep learning to predict the time to stability after instabilities. Unlike standard benchmarking approaches that emphasize algorithmic performance on fixed datasets, we apply forecasting models -- including LSTM, N-BEATS, TFT, NHITS, DLinear, NLinear, TSMixer, and Chronos-LLM -- to complex, large-scale experimental data. Our findings highlight two challenges: learning from sparse instability events and forecasting long time horizons (i.e., predicting hundreds of future points), both of which are ongoing challenges in time-series forecasting and remain active areas of research. This prediction task has direct experimental value by enabling better scheduling and maintenance planning. A reliable forecast of stability time allows for more efficient measurement and task management during stabilization periods. Through model selection, we identified N-BEATS as the top performer, excelling in accuracy and repeatability, demonstrating that deep learning can optimize large-scale physics experiments.

Nicholas Tan Jerome, Nadia Aouadi, Christoph Koehler +2

Institute for Data Processing and Electronics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Schmalkalden University of Applied Sciences, Schmalkalden, Germany · Technical University Munich, Garching, Germany +1

Event Time Prediction Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

Towards Event-Aware Forecasting in DeFi: Insights from On-chain Automated Market Maker Protocols

Automated Market Makers (AMMs), as a core infrastructure of decentralized finance (DeFi), uniquely drive on-chain asset pricing through a deterministic reserve ratio mechanism. Unlike traditional markets, AMM price dynamics is triggered largely by on-chain events (e.g., swap) that change the reserve ratio, rather than by continuous responses to off-chain information. This makes event-level analysis crucial for understanding price formation mechanisms in AMMs. However, existing research generally neglects the micro-structural dynamics at the AMMs level, lacking both a comprehensive dataset covering multiple protocols with fine-grained event classification and an effective framework for event-aware modeling. To fill this gap, we construct a dataset containing 8.9 million on-chain event records from four representative AMMs protocols: Pendle, Uniswap v3, Aave and Morpho, with precise annotations of transaction type and block height timestamps. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty Weighted Mean Squared Error (UWM) loss function, which incorporates the block interval regression term into the traditional Time-Point Process (TPP) objective function by weighting the uncertainty with homoscedasticity. Extensive experiments on eight advanced TPP architectures demonstrate that this loss function reduces the time prediction error by an average of 56.41% while maintaining the accuracy of event type prediction, establishing a robust benchmark for event-aware prediction in the AMMs ecosystem. This work provides the necessary data foundation and methodological framework for modeling the discreteness and event-driven characteristics of on-chain price discovery. All datasets and source code are publicly available. https://github.com/yosen-king/Deep-AMM-Events

Huaiyu Jia, Jiehshun You, Yizhi Luo +2

HKUST(GZ) · GUANGZHOU, China · Hong Kong Polytechnic University +1

Event Time Prediction Temporal Point Processes Financial Services Decentralized Finance

Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

EVIL: Evolving Interpretable Algorithms for Zero-Shot Inference on Event Sequences and Time Series with LLMs

We introduce EVIL (\textbf{EV}olving \textbf{I}nterpretable algorithms with \textbf{L}LMs), an approach that uses LLM-guided evolutionary search to discover simple, interpretable algorithms for dynamical systems inference. Rather than training neural networks on large datasets, EVIL evolves pure Python/NumPy programs that perform zero-shot, in-context inference across datasets. We apply EVIL to three distinct tasks: next-event prediction in temporal point processes, rate matrix estimation for Markov jump processes, and time series imputation. In each case, a single evolved algorithm generalizes across all evaluation datasets without per-dataset training (analogous to an amortized inference model). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to show that LLM-guided program evolution can discover a single compact inference function for these dynamical-systems problems. Across the three domains, the discovered algorithms are often competitive with, and even outperform, state-of-the-art deep learning models while being orders of magnitudes faster, and remaining fully interpretable.

David Berghaus

Lamarr Institute · Fraunhofer IAIS

Event Time Prediction Time Series Imputation Automated Algorithm Discovery Interpretable ML LLM-Based Program Synthesis

Feb 11, 2026cs.LG

Capture Timing-Attention of Events in Clinical Time Series

The contemporary paradigm of trajectory learning operates fundamentally at the level of group dynamics, systematically reducing individual-level complexity to fit group-level models, thus rendering effective patient subtyping difficult and individual-level modeling largely out of reach. We propose a data-driven paradigm that introduces a dedicated individual-level temporal variable to capture \emph{Timing Attention} (i.e., the degree of concentration of an event's timing distribution across the patient cohort), thereby rendering timing a \emph{computable dimension} that enables individualized temporal features in trajectory learning. Instantiated as the Level-of-Individual Time Transformation (LITT) and applied to longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients, the proposed paradigm demonstrates, for the first time to our knowledge: (1) automatic discovery of clinically significant patient trajectories, and (2) counterfactual timing deduction, that is, a \emph{What-If Machine}. Both results are purely data-driven, requiring no prior domain knowledge. LITT further achieves strong performance on timing prediction and survival analysis tasks.

Jia Li, Yu Hou, Rui Zhang

Department of Surgery; Department of Computer Science, U of M Minneapolis, MN, USA

Event Time Prediction Healthcare Counterfactual Prediction Longitudinal EHR Modeling

Dec 9, 2025cs.MA

Probabilistic Multi-Agent Aircraft Landing Time Prediction

Accurate and reliable aircraft landing time prediction is essential for effective resource allocation in air traffic management. However, the inherent uncertainty of aircraft trajectories and traffic flows poses significant challenges to both prediction accuracy and trustworthiness. Therefore, prediction models should not only provide point estimates of aircraft landing times but also the uncertainties associated with these predictions. Furthermore, aircraft trajectories are frequently influenced by the presence of nearby aircraft through air traffic control interventions such as radar vectoring. Consequently, landing time prediction models must account for multi-agent interactions in the airspace. In this work, we propose a probabilistic multi-agent aircraft landing time prediction framework that provides the landing times of multiple aircraft as distributions. We evaluate the proposed framework using an air traffic surveillance dataset collected from the terminal airspace of the Incheon International Airport in South Korea. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy than the baselines and quantifies the associated uncertainties of its outcomes. In addition, the model uncovered underlying patterns in air traffic control through its attention scores, thereby enhancing explainability.

Kyungmin Kim, Seokbin Yoon, Keumjin Lee

Korea Aerospace University, Goyang, 10540, South Korea · Department of Advanced Air Transportation · Department of Air Transport, Transportation, and Logistics

Event Time Prediction Air Traffic Management Intelligent Transportation Systems Probabilistic Forecasting

Oct 14, 2025cs.CV

State-Change Learning for Prediction of Future Events in Endoscopic Videos

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Saurav Sharma, Chinedu Innocent Nwoye, Didier Mutter +1

University of Strasbourg, CNRS, INSERM, ICube, UMR7357, France · IHU Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France · University Hospital of Strasbourg, France

Event Time Prediction Surgical Video Understanding

Jul 29, 2025cs.LG

Edge Selection for the Effective use of Piecewise-Constant Distributions as Neural Network Outputs for Event Prediction

We study the output representation of a neural network used for next event prediction. We propose partitioning the time axis into a fixed set of intervals and having a neural network output a categorical distribution over them, which we map to a (mostly) piecewise-constant probability density. We present an optimization procedure that selects interval edges in order to maximize data likelihood under the representation. The representation is well suited to processes whose inter-event distribution is a mixture of smooth and sharply peaked components

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a pattern we find common in event data recorded from real-world processes.

Kevin Doran, Tom Baden

School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, UK · School of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, UK · Institute of Ophthalmic Research, University of Tübingen, Germany

Event Time Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting

May 1, 2025cs.LG

Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers

Utilities publish Estimated Times of Restoration (ETRs) for customer-facing storm outages, and their accuracy governs whether customers can make sound decisions about food, medical equipment, and relocation. Prior work treats ETR as static tabular regression in which each outage contributes one record, discarding the fact that every development of an outage, from crew assignment through dispatch, suspension, damage assessment and partial restoration, is recorded as a revision. We reformulate ETR prediction as longitudinal tabular regression and introduce a Longitudinal Tabular Transformer (LTT), an axial-attention model that consumes the revisions preceding a prediction and issues a refined estimate at every one. On 242{,}928 storm-attributed outages from a cohort of 526{,}468 filtered events and 10.0 million revisions at six operating companies, LTT reduces customer-weighted asymmetric error at all six, by a median of 36.9,% against the estimates the utilities published during the same storms and 11.3,% against the strongest learned baseline at each. It is the only method improving on the incumbent's satisfaction impact at all six companies while also reducing root mean squared error at all six. Stratification by revision index shows that LTT error is largest at the first revision, where no history is available, and falls monotonically as revisions accumulate.

Bogireddy Sai Prasanna Teja, Valliappan Muthukaruppan, Carls Benjamin

Exelon Corporation, Chicago, IL, USA

Event Time Prediction Transformer Tabular ML Tabular Regression Power Systems