Likelihood

Score-based diffusion models demonstrate superior performance in generative tasks but encounter fundamental bottlenecks in inverse problems due to the analytical intractability of the time-dependent likelihood score. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel proximal-based generative modeling (PGM) framework that rigorously circumvents explicit likelihood evaluation. Our framework is built upon a theoretical equivalence between Gaussian convolution in diffusion processes and Moreau-Yosida regularization in nonsmooth optimization. This enables a new sampling mechanism driven by the proposed Moreau score, which admits a closed-form expression via proximal operators. Moreover, we introduce Moreau score matching to learn the proximal operators that rely solely on samples drawn from the prior distribution. Theoretically, PGM eliminates the early-stopping bias inherent in the score-based diffusion model and achieves non-asymptotic convergence. Experiments demonstrate that PGM significantly surpasses state-of-the-art methods in reconstruction quality and sampling time.

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

We introduce an automatically generated benchmark for predicting hidden text in technical papers. A paper supplies visible context $X$ and a hidden continuation $Y$; the evaluated model writes an auxiliary forecast string $Z$, and a separate scorer assigns next-token probability to $Y$ both with and without conditioning on $Z$. This gives a label-free test of whether $Z$ transmits information about the continuation, compared against controls where $Z$ is recent context rather than a forecast. Our main testbed is equation-suffix prediction: the predictor sees context and the first part of a displayed equation, then forecasts the rest. The task mixes surface-level arXiv/TeX text modeling with reasoning-sensitive inference; the suffix is one of many roughly equivalent continuations, so the benchmark is read statistically rather than item-by-item. On 1363 equation continuations from 138 recent physics and mathematics papers, forecasts from GPT-5.5, Opus 4.7, and GPT-5.4 nano all improve clipped likelihood over the context control under both Qwen3-8B and Kimi K2.6 scorers, distinguishing model families and reasoning-effort settings without human labels. To emulate shortcuts where $Z$ further primes the scorer rather than making a useful forecast, we also fine-tune the scorer on context-only prompts and apply it to held-out papers as a stronger control. GPT-5.5 forecasts still beat this fine-tuned control; GPT-5.4 nano forecasts do not. Longer prose/TeX continuations show positive but noisier lift over controls, concentrated near the beginning of the target. These results support cross-model likelihood scoring as a static benchmark and as a setup for probing shortcut vulnerabilities before reinforcement learning or model-selection optimization is applied.

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are fundamental to cellular function and disease mechanisms. Current learning-based PPI predictors focus on learning powerful protein representations but neglect designing specialized classification heads. They mainly rely on generic aggregating methods like concatenation or dot products, which lack biological insight. Motivated by the biological "L3 rule", where multiple length-3 paths between a pair of proteins indicate their interaction likelihood, our study addresses this gap by designing a biologically informed PPI classifier. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that popular PPI datasets strongly support the L3 rule. We propose an L3-path-regularized graph prompt learning method called L3-PPI, which can generate a prompt graph with virtual L3 paths based on protein representations and controls the number of paths. L3-PPI reformulates the classification of protein embedding pairs into a graph-level classification task over the generated prompt graph. This lightweight module seamlessly integrates with PPI predictors as a plug-and-play component, injecting the interaction prior of complementarity to enhance performance. Extensive experiments show that L3-PPI achieves superior performance enhancements over advanced competitors.

Multi-judge evaluation is increasingly used to assess LLMs and reward models, and the prevailing heuristic is to curate: keep the most accurate judges and discard weaker ones. We show that this heuristic can reverse when the target is not point accuracy, but calibrated probabilistic evaluation from a labeled calibration set. Holding the aggregation and calibration procedures fixed, we compare accuracy-ranked top-$k$ judge selection with using the full judge panel. Across four labeled pairwise-evaluation benchmarks spanning LLM-as-judge and reward-model settings, the calibrated full panel consistently outperforms accuracy-based selection. On RewardBench2, retaining all judges achieves negative log-likelihood (NLL) of $0.006$ versus $0.013$ under top-5 selection, halving the calibration error. This advantage persists after judge-family deduplication and against stronger same-pipeline subset search. We explain this reversal with oracle analyses showing that the optimal calibrated risk under proper scoring rules cannot increase when additional judge signals are made available, and that even below-chance judges can be useful when their biases are learnable and their signals are non-redundant. The resulting operating principle is simple: in multi-judge evaluation with labeled calibration data, do not discard weak judges by accuracy alone; keep them when they are parseable, non-redundant, and calibratable.

The ability to reliably distinguish human-written text from that generated by large language models is of profound societal importance. The dominant approach to this problem exploits the likelihood hypothesis: that machine-generated text should appear more probable to a detector language model than human-written text. However, we demonstrate that the token-level signal distinguishing human and machine text is non-uniform across the hidden space of the detector model, and naively averaging likelihood-based token scores across regions with fundamentally different statistical structure, as most detectors do, causes a form of Simpson's paradox: a strong local signal is destroyed by inappropriate aggregation. To correct for this, we introduce a learned local calibration step grounded in Bayesian decision theory. Rather than aggregating raw token scores, we first learn lightweight predictors of the score distributions conditioned on position in hidden space, and aggregate calibrated log-likelihood ratios instead. This single intervention dramatically and consistently improves detection performance across all baseline detectors and all datasets we consider. For example, our calibrated variant of Fast-DetectGPT improves AUROC from $0.63$ to $0.85$ on GPT-5.4 text, and a locally-calibrated DMAP detector we introduce achieves state-of-the-art performance across the board. That said, our central contribution is not a new detector, but a precise diagnosis of a significant cause of under-performance of existing detectors and a principled, modular remedy compatible with any token-averaging pipeline. This will serve as a foundation for the community to build upon, with natural avenues including richer distributional models, improved calibration strategies, and principled ensembling with hidden-space geometry signals via the full Bayes-optimal decision rule.

ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures. Crucially, cBottle can be guided to generate extreme events such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over locations of interest. Diffusion models such as cBottle work by approximating the probability density of the training data. Here, we show use cases of the probability density estimates of atmospheric states obtained from this climate emulator. Most importantly, these estimates allow us to calculate likelihoods of extreme events under guidance. When guiding the model towards states including TCs, comparing the probability density under the guided and unguided model enables us to quantify how much more likely the guidance has made the TC. We show how these odds ratios allow us to importance-sample from the TC distribution, reducing the standard error of the probability estimate compared to simple Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, we discuss results and limitations of the application of model probability densities to extreme event attribution-like experiments. We present these early but encouraging results hoping they will spur more research into probabilistic information that can be gained from diffusion models of the atmosphere.

The increasing use of token-based representations in language-driven applications has motivated wireless token communication, where tokens are treated as fundamental units for transmission. However, conventional communication systems overlook dependencies among tokens and allocate transmission resources uniformly, leading to inefficient use of limited wireless resources under channel impairments. In this paper, we propose a context-aware token communication framework that leverages a masked language model (MLM) as a shared contextual model between the transmitter (Tx) and receiver (Rx). At the Rx, we develop a context-aware token detection method that integrates channel likelihoods with MLM-based contextual priors under a Bayesian formulation, enabling robust token inference over noisy channels. At the Tx, we propose a context-aware token masking strategy that selectively omits tokens that can be reliably inferred at the Rx, allowing the available power budget to be concentrated on more informative tokens. These components are jointly designed through a shared MLM, establishing a unified Tx-Rx framework for efficient token transmission and detection. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly improves reconstruction performance compared to conventional and existing token communication schemes, achieving up to 1.77X and 1.63X performance gains on the Europarl corpus and WikiText-103 datasets, respectively.

Pretrial risk assessment tools are used on over one million U.S. defendants each year, yet their use for predicting rare violent re-offense faces a basic statistical barrier. We derive a universal precision bound -- the Likelihood Ratio Wall -- showing that when violent re-arrest rates are low (2-5%), achieving even a 50% hit rate among people labeled "high risk" (positive predictive value, or PPV) would require tools far more discriminative than current instruments appear to be. For rare outcomes, a tool can have respectable-looking performance metrics and still be wrong most of the time it flags someone as "high risk for violence." We show that post-hoc score recalibration cannot solve this problem because it does not improve the tool's underlying ability to separate true positives from false positives. We further prove a Surveillance Ceiling: when over-policing inflates recorded "risk factors" among those who would not re-offend, the maximum achievable precision is structurally lower for over-policed groups, even at equal offense rates. We translate these results into the Number Needed to Detain (how many people must be detained to prevent one violent offense), and propose that risk reports should communicate this uncertainty explicitly. Our findings suggest that for rare violent outcomes, debates about fairness metrics alone are incomplete: under current data regimes, the available features may not support high-confidence individualized detention decisions.

Identity teacher forcing (ITF) enables stable training of deterministic recurrent surrogates for chaotic dynamical systems and has been highly effective for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) with recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including interpretable almost-linear RNNs (AL-RNNs). However, as an intervention-based prediction loss (and thus a generalized Bayes update), teacher forcing need not match the free-running model's marginal likelihood geometry. We compare the objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs, estimating ambiguity-aware observed information via Louis' identity. In the switching setting studied here, conditioning on a single forced regime path (as ITF does) inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood curvature is reduced by a missing-information correction when multiple switching explanations remain plausible. In Lorenz-63 experiments, windowed evidence fine-tuning improves held-out evidence but can degrade dynamical quantities of interest (QoIs) relative to ITF-pretrained models.

The marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is regarded as a mathematical embodiment of Occam's razor, enabling model selection that avoids overfitting. The evidence lower bound (ELBO) objective from variational inference has also been used for similar purposes. Prior work has shown that restricting the approximate posterior family via a mean-field approximation can lead the ELBO to underfit. In this paper, we show how ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple over-parameterized regression model can also produce overfitting, depending on the assumed rank of the covariance matrix in a Gaussian approximate posterior. Surprisingly, among only the underfit and overfit options, Bayesian model selection via the evidence itself sometimes prefers the overfit version, while the ELBO does not. Bayesian practitioners hoping to scale to large models should be cautious about how reduced-rank assumptions needed for tractability may impact the potential for model selection.

Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space, where the state is either 0 or 1. We study prior-agnostic robust forecast aggregation in which the aggregator observes only experts' reports, yet is ignorant of both the underlying joint information structure and the full prior, including the underlying state space. Unlike the standard model that fixes the binary state space {0, 1}, we allow the (binary) unknown state values to be arbitrary numbers in [0, 1], so the same reported probability may correspond to very different realized outcome frequencies across environments. Our main contribution is a simple, explicit, closed-form log-odds aggregator that linearly pools forecasts in logit space, together with (nearly-)tight minimax-regret guarantees across three knowledge regimes. We first show that under conditionally independent (CI) signals, robust aggregation with an unknown state space is strictly harder than in the known-state setting by establishing a larger lower bound, and our aggregation rule can achieve a worst-case regret of 0.0255. Along the way, we also characterize tight regret bounds for Blackwell-ordered structures and for general information structures. In the classical setting with known state space {0,1}, our aggregator achieves regret strictly below 0.0226 for CI structures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit closed-form aggregator that achieves a regret upper bound strictly less than 0.0226. Finally, we extend the model where the aggregator additionally knows each expert's marginal forecast distribution; in this setting, with the CI structures, we show that a generalized log-odds rule achieves regret of 0.0228, complementing with a lower bound of 0.0225.

Multi-look acquisition is a widely used strategy for reducing speckle noise in coherent imaging systems such as digital holography. By acquiring multiple measurements, speckle can be suppressed through averaging or joint reconstruction, typically under the assumption that speckle realizations across looks are statistically independent. In practice, however, hardware constraints limit measurement diversity, leading to inter-look correlation that degrades the performance of conventional methods. In this work, we study the reconstruction of speckle-free reflectivity from complex-valued multi-look measurements in the presence of correlated speckle. We model the inter-look dependence using a first-order Markov process and derive the corresponding likelihood under a first-order Markov approximation, resulting in a constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem. To solve this problem, we develop an efficient projected gradient descent framework that combines gradient-based updates with implicit regularization via deep image priors, and leverages Monte Carlo approximation and matrix-free operators for scalable computation. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach remains robust under strong inter-look correlation, achieving performance close to the ideal independent-look scenario and consistently outperforming methods that ignore such dependencies. These results highlight the importance of explicitly modeling inter-look correlation and provide a practical framework for multi-look holographic reconstruction under realistic acquisition conditions. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Computational-Imaging-RU/MLE-Holography-Markov.

We motivate the use of differentiable probabilistic programming techniques in order to account for the large model-space inherent to astrophysical $γ$-ray analyses. Targeting the longstanding Galactic Center $γ$-ray Excess (GCE) puzzle, we construct differentiable forward model and likelihood that make liberal use of GPU acceleration and vectorization in order to simultaneously account for a continuum of possible spatial morphologies consistent with the GCE emission in a fully probabilistic manner. Our setup allows for efficient inference over the large model space using variational methods. Beyond application to $γ$-ray data, a goal of this work is to showcase how differentiable probabilistic programming can be used as a tool to enable flexible analyses of astrophysical datasets.

Instead of directly distilling a language model, this study addresses the problem of aligning a base model with a target model in distribution by designing the domain mixture of training data for pretraining or continued pretraining as a fixed training recipe. We propose a method for determining domain weights by viewing models as points in log-likelihood space and aligning the training update direction with the direction toward the target model. Experiments with NanoGPT show that the proposed method consistently reduces the KL divergence between the trained base model and the target model relative to training with Pile-original weighting. Although knowledge distillation remains more effective when available, the proposed method achieves meaningful alignment, and downstream task performance also tends to become closer to that of the target model.

Maximum likelihood prediction (MLP) is a core task at the heart of modern large language models. Here, we study a quantum version of this task for a simplified data model consisting of independent and identically distributed samples, as a first step. The quantum maximum likelihood predictor (QMLP) is obtained by embedding of empirical probability distributions into quantum states and performing a minimization of quantum relative entropy over a given class of states. We derive non-asymptotic performance guarantees for QMLP in terms of convergence rates and concentration inequalities, both in trace norm and quantum relative entropy. Our approach provides a unified framework to handle MLP within both classical and quantum LLMs. We also consider the related problem of quantum information projection and generalize the quantum Pythagorean theorem to mixture families specified by possibly non-self-adjoint linear constraints. We further show that the Pythagorean inequality continues to hold in the infinite-dimensional setting whenever the convex information-projection problem attains a finite minimum.

Reinforcement learning has been widely applied to diffusion and flow models for visual tasks such as text-to-image generation. However, these tasks remain challenging because diffusion models have intractable likelihoods, which creates a barrier for directly applying popular policy-gradient type methods. Existing approaches primarily focus on crafting new objectives built on already heavily engineered LLM objectives, using ad hoc estimators for likelihood, without a thorough investigation into how such estimation affects overall algorithmic performance. In this work, we provide a systematic analysis of the RL design space by disentangling three factors: i) policy-gradient objectives, ii) likelihood estimators, and iii) rollout sampling schemes. We show that adopting an evidence lower bound (ELBO) based model likelihood estimator, computed only from the final generated sample, is the dominant factor enabling effective, efficient, and stable RL optimization, outweighing the impact of the specific policy-gradient loss functional. We validate our findings across multiple reward benchmarks using SD 3.5 Medium, and observe consistent trends across all tasks. Our method improves the GenEval score from 0.24 to 0.95 in 90 GPU hours, which is 4.6 times more efficient than FlowGRPO and $2\times$ more efficient than the SOTA method without reward hacking.

Single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) record light as a discrete stream of individual detections. The signal is stochastic. Its statistical structure depends on the sensor's operation mode: binary detection in fixed bins, timestamped detection in fixed bins, or free-running timestamped detection. We derive the likelihood score function for each of these three passive modes. From this single object, stem both fundamental limits of recovery (Cramer-Rao bounds) and practical recovery algorithms based on diffusion posterior sampling. The paper further generalizes fundamental limits to Bayesian Cramer-Rao lower bounds. This generalization makes use of a learned approximation of the score function of signal priors. In prior art, analyses and diffusion-based reconstruction for SPAD data have treated individual modes in isolation. Our unified treatment shows a qualitative high-flux gap between modes: binary counts saturate exponentially, while timestamped modes degrade only linearly. We further extend diffusion posterior sampling, previously restricted to binary SPAD data, to a full timestamped case using the suitable score function. We demonstrate experimentally that matching the score to the operation mode is beneficial for high-fidelity reconstruction. By tying the recovery bounds and diffusion to the score function, this work aims to establish a common foundation for both asking what is recoverable in single-photon sensing, and building methods that approach the bound.

We revisit Cox's proportional hazards model to improve variable selection in survival analysis. A square-root transformation of the partial likelihood renders the selection of the regularization parameter pivotal, free of the unknown baseline hazard and censoring mechanism. The resulting criterion borrows from information criteria such as BIC and from penalized regression methods such as the lasso, taking the best of both. On simulated and real data, our method substantially improves upon state-of-the-art approaches used daily in support recovery.

Matrix-variate distributions are a relatively recent addition to the model-based clustering literature, thereby making it possible to analyze data in matrix form with complex structure such as images and time series. Due to its recent appearance, there is limited literature on matrix-variate data, with even less on dealing with outliers in these models. An approach for clustering matrix-variate normal data with outliers is discussed. The approach, which uses the distribution of subset log-likelihoods, extends the OCLUST algorithm to matrix-variate normal data and uses an iterative approach to detect and trim outliers.