LLM Uncertainty Estimation

LLM: Large Language Model

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

38 papers in the last four weeks, up 111% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 298

Sep 17, 2026cs.CL

An Analysis of Training-Free Self-Reported Confidence in Language Models

Large language models can report a numerical confidence together with generated content, but it is unclear whether this report is more than calibrated rhetoric. We analyze three training-free signals: confidence verbalized with the answer, post-hoc

P(\mathrm{True})

, and agreement with three additional generations on the same 100 TriviaQA questions for two model families. Direct verbalization is a surprisingly strong baseline: after auditing benchmark errors, it reaches AUROC 0.956 and 0.937 for correctness prediction. Three-sample agreement is substantially weaker (0.765 and 0.790), and a fixed interpolation with verbalized confidence has no statistically reliable benefit. Four of nine errors from one model and two of eight from the other receive unanimous sample support, showing that self-consistency can amplify shared misconceptions. Re-eliciting confidence for the same fixed answers with equivalent prompts changes scores by 0.043 to 0.084 on average and flips 4% to 9% of decisions at a 0.8 threshold. An exploratory audit of 100 confidence-tagged biography claims further finds only a modest confidence gap between supported and contradicted claims. These results argue that useful self-reports remain sensitive to elicitation, correlated errors, and benchmark noise.

Lukas Meyer, Sofia Rossi, Wei Chen +2

DreamAI

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Self-Assessment LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Self-Consistency in Language Models

Sep 17, 2026cs.CL

Intrinsic Sequence-Likelihood Confidence in Retrieval-Dominated Extractive QA: Two Pre-Specified Negatives, and What They Do and Do Not Attribute

In extractive document question answering whose questions were generated from the passages that contain their answers -- so that retrieval recovers 92-99.8% of what any mode combination could reach, whatever its absolute accuracy -- confidence-driven mechanisms have little to gain. Fine-tuning an open language model on a specialized domain corpus yields a model whose own confidence is a tempting control signal: it could decide which queries warrant further adaptation, and which answers to trust. We evaluate both uses under criteria fixed before the runs were executed, across four 7-9B model families whose adaptation moved closed-book F1 by at most +0.03, and both fail: a distillation trigger on all four families, under its pre-specified three-step transfer budget, and a routing-and-abstention policy in its single-model pilot. Retrieval alone recovers 92-99.8% of best-case combined accuracy under every correctness criterion we test, leaving routers no meaningful gain. The sequence-likelihood signal is insufficient relative to that mode -- area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.65-0.81 under the registered criterion -- before adaptation as well as after, unchanged by scalar recalibration and not consistently improved by token-level temperature rescaling. And the finer diagnostics depend on the correctness criterion and on answer length; on the three adapted combinations where we could test it, selector ablations show no statistically detectable downstream benefit from the confidence term on any seed; on Gemma, removing it changes the selector from failing to passing both registered criteria. The usable product is a set of pre-specified negatives with their dependencies made explicit.

Gunwoo Lee, Changmin Sung, Sang-Hwan Gwak +3

Large-scale AI Research Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), 245 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 34141, Republic of Korea. · Department of Applied AI, University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 34113, Republic of Korea.

LLM Evaluation Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models Question Answering LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 17, 2026cs.CL

Chain-of-Thought Entropy as a Reliability Signal: A Preregistered Reproduction

This empirical study is an independent reproduction of the dissociation Zhao reported in 2026. The shape of a large language model's chain-of-thought entropy trajectory predicts whether the final answer is correct, while the magnitude of its total entropy drop does not. The dissociation merits reproduction because the magnitude half rests on a single 300-problem run with one model at one seed, while the shape half was reported at full scale on both benchmarks and on a second model family. Registered at OSF before any confirmatory run, the reproduction crosses the complete GSM8K and MATH-500 benchmark test sets with four open-weight models including one reasoning-distilled model of a kind the original did not test. The shape signal replicates. The magnitude signal divides by setting. On the anchor model the accuracy gap between monotone and non-monotone chains is +9.6 percentage points on GSM8K and +27.5 on MATH-500, while the rank correlation of the total entropy drop with correctness is -0.018 on GSM8K and +0.414 on MATH-500. On the reasoning-distilled model the binary form of the shape signal fires on about one chain in a hundred, too few to estimate the registered contrast, while the graded violation count remains predictive there. In an exploratory comparison the final-step entropy alone outperforms the binary shape flag in all eight model-by-benchmark cells by ROC area, and in six or seven by the risk-coverage area the original reports, depending on an integration range the original does not state. The study contributes a reproduction of the shape signal at full test-set scale under seven documented protocol differences, a map of the settings where the magnitude signal holds and fails, and measurements of four protocol dependencies the original does not report.

Theodore O. Cochran

AI for Altruism

Numerical Reasoning in Language Models LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 16, 2026cs.CL

Attention Dispersion as a Diagnostic Signal for Hallucination in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit hallucinations, presenting a major barrier to reliability in complex reasoning tasks. While traditional detection methods rely on output-based confidence metrics, these logits are often miscalibrated by modern alignment techniques. In this paper, we investigate the temporal volatility of internal attention mechanisms as an alternative diagnostic signal for hallucination that does not depend on output calibration. By introducing an unsupervised metric for attention dispersion, we show that epistemic uncertainty leaves a measurable trace within intermediate layers, where spikes in attention entropy are associated with reasoning breakdowns. We evaluate our approach on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH-500) using the Qwen2.5 model family (1.5B and 3B parameters), finding statistically significant AUC improvements of up to +0.076 over output-based baselines across all tested conditions. These findings suggest that attention dispersion is a promising complement to traditional hallucination detection methods, requiring further investigation across broader model families and task domains.

Shardul P. More, Tanuja S. Pawar

Rajarambapu Institute of Technology Ishwarpur, Maharashtra, India

Hallucination Detection LLM Hallucination Detection LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 15, 2026cs.CL

Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

Reliable confidence estimation is increasingly central to the trustworthy deployment of language models: a calibrated estimate of the probability that an output is correct decides what to ship, what to escalate, and what to retry. Existing confidence estimators, however, share one design premise: they only read the current inference process, either by introspecting on it, scoring its token probabilities, or resampling it. We argue that the current inference is not a sufficient basis for confidence. We propose XConf (eXperiential Confidence): estimating confidence together with the model's accumulated experience. The experience is stored as a record of the model's own graded past episodes, each holding the task, the model's reflection, its stated confidence, the outcome, and a lesson written once the grade arrived. Given a new task, XConf's Recall stage retrieves past episodes on similar tasks met with a similar stated confidence, and reads off their historical success rate; its Reflect stage shows the model this record, has it name its recurring failure mode, and restate a confidence now informed by its own track records. Our estimator is format-general, requiring no logit access or weight updates, and costs only one answer generation. Across nine benchmarks spanning reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in discrimination (AUROC) on 23 of 24 comparisons, with much lower calibration error (ECE), at a tenth of the generation cost. Used for selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises the delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks. We therefore see experiential confidence estimation as a new paradigm for future general-purpose confidence estimation.

Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li +3

University of Cambridge 1 Solve & Estimate · Google DeepMind

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation Metacognition in Language Models LLM Agent Reliability

Sep 15, 2026cs.CL

When Should LLMs Abstain? Chain-of-Self-Questioning for Selective Risk Control

Large language models can produce fluent answers when their factual support is weak. This paper introduces Chain-of-Self-Questioning (CoSQ), a prompt-only framework that makes answer commitment conditional on an explicit assessment of the information required to answer a question. We evaluate three CoSQ variants under seventeen conditions on the 817-item TruthfulQA multiple-choice validation set using eleven open-weight and hosted model families. In the final balanced-option protocol, Grounded-CoSQ at τ=0.90 reduces the mean unconditional wrong-commitment rate from 13.1% under chain-of-thought prompting to 8.9%, a 32.1% relative reduction, while increasing answered accuracy from 86.9% to 89.7% and answering 87.6% of questions. Both improvements hold for all eleven models and at every evaluated threshold. Critical-CoSQ and Adaptive-CoSQ provide neighboring operating points with 88.6% and 86.5% coverage, respectively, while remaining more reliable than the baseline. A secondary Natural Questions Short-Answer evaluation provides convergent open-form evidence. These findings show that self-assessment can support explicit, tunable answer-or-abstain decisions when an unsupported commitment is more costly than referral or review.

Ali Şenol

Department of Computer Engineering, Tarsus University, Tarsus, Türkiye

Selective Prediction LLM Prompting Language Model Self-Assessment Question Answering LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Abstention

Sep 15, 2026cs.LG

When Confidence Signals Disagree: Local and Global Confidence in Autoregressive Language Models

Modern predictive systems expose multiple quantities that are commonly interpreted as measures of confidence. However, these quantities can summarize different aspects of the predictive process. This distinction matters when confidence is used to evaluate reliability or inform downstream oversight and control. We investigate whether different confidence readouts are empirically interchangeable in an autoregressive language model by comparing local confidence, defined from the probability of the greedy-selected answer token, with global confidence, defined from modal-answer frequency under repeated sampling. Across MMLU and ARC Challenge, the two signals are weakly correlated and differ substantially in their association with correctness: global confidence is moderately associated with correctness, whereas local confidence shows little association. We further test whether question-level disagreement between the signals is associated with sampling instability. On ARC, larger local--global confidence gaps are associated with higher answer entropy, more distinct sampled answers, and lower modal-answer concentration. The gap--entropy association persists when disagreement and instability are estimated from disjoint stochastic samples, indicating that it is not explained by shared finite-sample variation. The corresponding relationship is substantially weaker on MMLU, where only 4% of questions exhibit sampling instability. These results show that confidence readouts derived from the same predictive system are not empirically interchangeable and that their disagreement can provide a diagnostic of unstable sampling behavior. Confidence should therefore be treated as an explicitly defined measurement rather than as a single intrinsic scalar property of a model, particularly when it is used to inform downstream evaluation, oversight, or control.

Julio C. Amador Diaz Lopez

SiftyML, LTD London, United Kingdom

LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 14, 2026cs.CL

R2VC: Modular Fact-Checking with Retrieval, Verification, and Confidence Calibration

Large language models are increasingly used for automated fact checking, but end-to-end prompting often entangles evidence retrieval, reasoning, and uncertainty estimation, making failures difficult to diagnose and confidence difficult to trust. We present R2VC, a modular retrieve, reason, verify, calibrate architecture for evidence-grounded fact checking with citations and abstention. R2VC combines hybrid sparse+dense retrieval over Wikipedia, a supervised fine-tuned and DPO-aligned generator that produces diverse structured verdict candidates, an external NLI cross-encoder for evidence-based candidate selection, and a lightweight sequence-level calibrator for confidence estimation and selective abstention. On FEVER, an 8B backbone with R2VC achieves 13.74% higher accuracy than baseline. Ablation studies show that verifier-based candidate selection and confidence calibration are the largest contributors to performance. Removing candidate selection drops FEVER accuracy to 76.24%, while removing calibration nearly doubles the Brier score to 0.161. A manual analysis of 250 errors further shows that retrieval failures, especially wrong-entity evidence, remain the dominant bottleneck. Together, these results show that modular fact-checking pipelines can substantially improve both predictive accuracy and confidence reliability in open-domain verification.

Dhruv Dixit, Paritosh Pandey

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken, New Jersey, United States · Department of Computer Science University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States

Retrieval-Augmented Generation Automated Fact-Checking Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 9, 2026cs.CL

ProbPlug: A Plugin Uncertainty Network for Reliable Confidence in LLM Binary Classification

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance across a broad range of classification settings, yet the reliability of their predictions remains a major obstacle to deployment in high-stakes scenarios. Although confidence estimation for LLMs has been widely studied, confidence calibration for LLM-based classification remains underexplored. We introduce ProbPlug, a lightweight confidence estimation framework for LLM-based binary classification, which predicts whether an output is correct using internal token features extracted from a frozen LLM. ProbPlug employs a self-attention module to aggregate hidden representations and can be integrated into the original inference pipeline without modifying the base model. Experiments across multiple tasks involving both text-based and multimodal large models show that ProbPlug provides more reliable confidence estimates, improves classification performance with negligible additional overhead, and exhibits strong generalization across tasks. These results indicate that ProbPlug serves as a practical solution for confidence estimation in LLM-based classification. Our code is publicly available at Github.

Jianzong Wang, Chuhang Liu, Botao Zhao +6

Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., Shenzhen, China · Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Shenzhen, China · Hubei University of Technology, Hubei, China

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability Classification LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Sep 8, 2026cs.AI

Answer-Distribution Trajectories: A Stochastic-Dynamics View of LLM Reasoning

Chain-of-thought reasoning provides a structured computation between a model's input and final answer. Yet it is often evaluated through endpoint accuracy, which ignores the path taken to reach that answer. An emerging line of work addresses this limitation using entropy profiles, which track how uncertainty evolves over the reasoning process but do not reveal which competing hypotheses account for that uncertainty. We introduce answer-distribution trajectories, a stochastic-dynamics-inspired representation that tracks the model's full predictive distribution over answers as reasoning unfolds. As a strictly finer representation than endpoint and entropy summaries, answer-distribution trajectories enable us to characterize a trace through a dynamical reasoning profile spanning exploration, revision, motion, and commitment, and to distinguish different dynamical mechanisms of reasoning success and failure. Across sixteen open-weight language models and four reasoning benchmarks, we show that traces with the same endpoint and similar entropy profiles can exhibit substantially different reasoning dynamics. We further find substantial variation in these dynamics both within and across models and tasks, with different objectives favoring different dynamical profiles. Additionally, we show that training and inference choices systematically reshape these profiles. Our results suggest that answer-distribution trajectories provide a rich framework for analysing and evaluating the dynamics of LLM reasoning.

Mar Gonzàlez I Català, Haitz Sáez de Ocáriz Borde, Davide Murari +3

University of Cambridge · Harvey Mudd College

LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Reasoning Reasoning Trace Analysis

Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

From Answers to Interpretations: Rethinking Ambiguity-Induced Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs

A key challenge in reliable LLM deployment is recognizing when uncertainty reflects irreducible variability in the task rather than limitations in the model's knowledge. In language tasks, a central source of such aleatoric uncertainty is input ambiguity or underspecification, where multiple interpretations remain plausible. Existing decomposition methods estimate aleatoric uncertainty by generating multiple clarifications of the input, querying the model for an answer under each clarification, and comparing the resulting answers. We argue that answers are not necessary for identifying ambiguity: they are often redundant, add avoidable cost, and can mislead through epistemic leakage. We support this claim theoretically, and propose a clarification-only approach that estimates this ambiguity-induced component directly from the space of plausible interpretations, without answers to the clarified inputs. Using ambiguity detection as an operational evaluation across three benchmarks, this direct approach improves AUROC (63.34 vs. 60.85), reduces computational cost by 4-26x in output tokens and 2.2-3.5x in API calls, and yields estimates with substantially lower correlation with epistemic uncertainty. Overall, our results suggest that ambiguity-induced aleatoric uncertainty is better estimated from the interpretation space than from the response space.

Omer Nahum, Niv Nayman, Jonathan Fhima +4

Data and Decision Sciences, Technion, Israel · Amazon Web Services · Computer Vision Group, University of Bern, Switzerland

LLM Uncertainty Estimation Aleatoric Uncertainty

Sep 2, 2026cs.CL

From Tokens to Semantics: Leveraging Complementary Signals for Hallucination Detection in Black-Box LLMs

When LLMs support public-facing or high-stakes workflows, missed fabrications can harm users and institutions, while false alarms consume limited human-review capacity. When no trusted context or reference document is available, we study two signals accessible through black-box model APIs: semantic entropy, which measures disagreement among sampled response meanings, and uncertainty derived from token log-probabilities. Their failure modes can be complementary: semantic entropy becomes uninformative when responses form one semantic cluster, while token uncertainty can miss consistently confident errors. We extend token-based uncertainty detection by aggregating token-level signals across sampled responses through our TopK method, evaluate the hybrid CoCoA method, which combines target-response uncertainty with semantic dissimilarity, and propose and study two supervised methods: Gated, which routes single-cluster cases to an aggregated-token-feature classifier, and Stacked, which learns jointly from semantic uncertainty and broader token features. We evaluate seven benchmarks, including five public benchmarks (four text datasets and multimodal handwritten-cheque extraction) and two constructed benchmarks (Financial Summaries and Long-Text QA), using four language models. In our evaluation across models and datasets, Stacked gave the best performance in nearly half of the cases, while TopK and CoCoA remain competitive without supervised training labels, although their thresholds require careful calibration. No method is universally strongest. We therefore evaluate performance at false-positive-rate budgets from 1% to 15%, assess their sensitivity to generation and calibration choices, and examine variation across dataset characteristics.

Urja Pawar, Rajitha Ramanayake, Owen O'Neill +5

BNY

LLM Hallucination Detection LLM Uncertainty Estimation Semantic Entropy

Sep 1, 2026cs.CL

DualStake: Dual-Path Confidence Calibration in Deep Research Agents

Deep Research agents tackle knowledge-intensive tasks through multi-round retrieval and decision-oriented generation. However, these agents suffer from severe overconfidence, making their expressed confidence unreliable for user trust and downstream abstention. To address this, we augment the Deep Research pipeline with step confidence elicitation after each retrieval, building on the commonly used post-answer verbalized confidence. Interestingly, we find that Evidence Confidence (E-Conf), elicited after the final retrieval step, provides a stronger uncertainty signal than Answer Confidence (A-Conf), elicited after answer generation, and that A-Conf is largely shaped by E-Conf. Based on these findings, we propose DualStake, a dual-path calibration method that applies margin-clipped, confidence-dependent stake rewards to jointly align E-Conf and A-Conf with answer correctness while limiting extreme confidence optimization. Experiments on Qwen2.5-7B, Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, and Qwen3-4B across 8 QA benchmarks demonstrate that DualStake consistently improves calibration without sacrificing answer accuracy. The code is available at https://github.com/FloXXXt/DualStake.

Yinuo Xu, Yuwei Liang, Jianjie Cheng +4

NLPR & MAIS, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA) · School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · Meituan Inc.

Deep Research Agents Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation Uncertainty Calibration

Aug 31, 2026cs.CL

BiG-SURE - Bipartite Graph for Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation of LLMs

Reliable uncertainty estimation is a crucial requirement for deploying large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) in safety-critical settings, especially when the model parameters are not accessible (black-box). We propose BiG-SURE, an uncertainty estimator based on cross-temperature semantic agreement. The method samples low-temperature responses as stable semantic anchors and high-temperature responses as probes under meaning-preserving input transformations. It then constructs an anchor-probe Bipartite Graph (BiG) using NLI-based entailment scores and defines confidence through the normalized squared spectral energy of this matrix, with uncertainty given by its complement. This bipartite graph-based Semantic Uncertainty and Reliability Estimation (SURE) score measures whether high-temperature probes remain semantically aligned with the model's stable low-temperature belief or not. We evaluate BiG-SURE on text QA, multilingual QA, and multimodal QA tasks across multiple model families. In these experiments, BiG-SURE improves average abstention AUROC over prior black-box uncertainty estimators, while remaining simple, unsupervised, and applicable to black-box model settings.

Debarpan Bhattacharya, Malay Phadke, Sriram Ganapathy

LEAP Lab, Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Science · TANUH AI Centre of Excellence, Indian Institute of Science

Uncertainty Quantification LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Aug 30, 2026cs.LG

Last Step Matters: Early Uncertainty Cannot Predict Failure in Long-Horizon Agents

Early failure prediction is important for long-horizon agents, as it enables timely intervention and can reduce inference and tool-use costs. Uncertainty quantification, such as verbal confidence and perplexity, offers a promising approach to detecting agent failures; however, it has not been explored whether these signals retain their discriminative power during the intermediate stages of long-horizon execution. We evaluate mainstream uncertainty signals on deep-research tasks and find that verbal confidence reliably distinguishes failures at trajectory completion, achieving a mean AUROC of 0.85, whereas all evaluated signals offer limited predictive value earlier in execution, with none exceeding a mean AUROC of 0.60 at 50% trajectory progress. We identify an underlying mechanism explaining this gap: path switching, where agents frequently abandon their current search direction in-trajectory, breaking the link between early signal and final outcome. These findings challenge the assumption that intermediate uncertainty can reliably guide early intervention. They also motivate a practical recommendation for agent harnesses in deep-research settings: use final-step confidence to decide whether to restart, an approach that our experiments find more effective than in-trajectory intervention.

Zongyue Li, Chengyue Yu, Lei Zang +3

Zhejiang University · Ant Group

Deep Research Agents Long-Horizon Agent Evaluation LLM Uncertainty Estimation Agent Trajectory Analysis

Aug 25, 2026cs.LG

When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Study

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are widely used for hallucination detection in large language models (LLMs) in closed-book settings where ground-truth evidence is unavailable at inference time. Prior work has proposed combining UQ signals via learned ensembles, but empirical investigations into the robustness of these ensembles are limited. We study a supervised ensembling framework that trains a classifier over heterogeneous UQ-based scorer outputs on a small, domain-specific dataset of labeled LLM responses, then applies it to out-of-sample hallucination classification without retrieval, tools, or reference documents. Across four LLMs, nine datasets, and three generation regimes (short-form QA, long-form generation, and code generation), we provide a systematic robustness analysis along three axes: sample efficiency, in-domain dataset transfer, and generation regime dependence. We find that supervised ensembles outperform the best individual scorer in 30 of 32 settings, with gains realized from as few as 100 labeled instances. Ensembles retain most of their advantage in cases of in-domain transfer under distribution shift, outperforming the best non-ensemble scorer in 23 of 28 transfer settings. Sampling-based black-box ensembles are nearly as effective as full ensembles, while single-generation white-box ensembles offer limited benefit.

Mohit Singh Chauhan, Vipin Gyanchandani, Dylan Bouchard

CVS Health®, Wellesley, MA, USA

LLM Hallucination Detection LLM Uncertainty Estimation Language Model Ensembles Language Model Robustness

Aug 24, 2026cs.CL

Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty

Large language models (LLMs) often produce fluent but incorrect answers with unwarranted confidence. A central limitation is that standard LLMs represent uncertainty through a single predictive distribution, conflating epistemic ignorance with genuine ambiguity. We introduce Credal Large Language Models (CLLMs): an ensemble of LoRA adapters induces a credal set whose lower and upper probabilities expose the spread of plausible predictive distributions rather than collapsing to a single softmax output. From this representation, we derive a single commitment rule: the model commits to an answer only when its lower probability exceeds the upper probability of every alternative, and otherwise returns the set of answers that no plausible predictor rules out. We apply this commitment rule at two depths: Credal Token Commitment (CTC) applies it to answer tokens from one ensemble forward pass, which decides constrained answers without any generation; for open-ended answers, credal decoding extends a partial answer only when no completed answer dominates it, so that the completions produced are those the plausible predictors license, and Credal Semantic Commitment (CSC) applies the rule to their meaning clusters. We evaluate CLLMs with Gemma-2-9B, Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen2.5-7B on OpenBookQA, CoQA, TriviaQA and ARC-Challenge. On multiple choice, CTC commits on 73-91% of questions at 89-98% accuracy, returns sets of 1.1-1.5 options containing the gold one on 89-98%, and its intervals contain the observed accuracy in 24 of 30 confidence bins without calibration; corrupted context lowers commitment from 87-92% to 65-71%, and on Gemma the credal bound detects corruption better than every baseline. On open-ended QA, CLLM outperforms semantic entropy and Laplace-LoRA at a fixed coverage by up to 19% and 9.5% absolute accuracy on CoQA and TriviaQA with context, for every backbone.

Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Sofiia Nikolenko, Fabio Cuzzolin

Oxford Dynamics Oxford · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Munich · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS) School of Engineering Computing & Mathematics Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK

Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models Question Answering LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Aug 22, 2026cs.MA

PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) solve complex tasks through communication among role-specialized agents. However, inter-agent dependencies introduce reliability risks beyond isolated agent failures. For instance, errors in intermediate messages could be inherited and amplified by downstream agents. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods mainly target isolated responses or single-agent reasoning, and therefore fail to capture uncertainty propagation in MAS. To this end, we propose PropUQ-MAS, an error propagation-aware UQ framework that represents MAS execution as a communication-structured graph and estimates each step's reliability by combining local uncertainty with uncertainty inherited from upstream messages. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PropUQ-MAS consistently improves UQ in MAS, with average relative gains of +6.10% in AUROC and +47.58% in PRR.

Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang +3

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Scale AI

Multi-Agent LLM Systems LLM Uncertainty Estimation Uncertainty Propagation

Aug 17, 2026cs.AI

MAE I Trust Myself? Self-Evaluating VLA Action Generation with Markov Attention Entropy

Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) integrate visual perception, language instruction, and action generation into end-to-end policies across heterogeneous architectures. However, enabling VLAs to self-evaluate their action generation reliability without external supervision remains a major challenge. Existing methods either rely on expert annotations or estimate uncertainty only from output statistics, largely ignoring internal signals. In this work, we observe that internal visual modality entropy exhibits consistent distinctions between successful and failed tasks across heterogeneous VLAs. Although VLAs' architectures differ in their action generation, we show that they share a common latent action generation abstraction evolving under visual perception, language instruction, and State Input, which we formulate as a Conditional Generative Markov Chain. Based on this formulation, we propose MAE (Markov Attention Entropy), a self-evaluation framework that directly converts internal attention signals into architecture-aware reliability scores, and introduce LIBERO-Reflect, a 4,000-episode benchmark combining 2,000 standard episodes and 2,000 challenging episodes across four subsets. Extensive experiments across heterogeneous VLA architectures and diverse scenarios show that MAE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on AUPR, AUROC, and FPR@95.

Aniri, Chen Yilin, Jinhe Bi +7

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning · East China University of Science and Technology +2

Uncertainty Estimation for VLA Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation Safety Evaluation of VLA Models

Aug 12, 2026cs.CL

Asymptotic Risk Calibration for Selective Question Answering

Large language models (LLMs) may generate fluent but incorrect answers, making uncertainty quantification important for reliable question answering. However, heuristic uncertainty scores cannot perfectly distinguish correct predictions from incorrect ones, and directly applying a fixed uncertainty threshold provides no statistical control over the error rate among accepted answers. To address this limitation, we propose A-CRC-QA, a post-hoc calibration framework for uncertainty-aware selective question answering. The proposed method reformulates selection-conditioned error control as a linear expectation constraint and applies a monotonized empirical-risk calibration procedure inspired by conformal risk control. Since the resulting instance-wise loss is generally non-monotone with respect to the acceptance threshold, our framework targets asymptotic rather than finite-sample risk control. A-CRC-QA is model-agnostic, requires no additional training, and can be combined with different uncertainty estimators. Experiments on CoQA and MedMCQA demonstrate its applicability to both open-ended and closed-ended question answering, achieving a favorable trade-off between accepted-answer reliability and answer retention compared with uncalibrated and confidence-bound-based baselines.

Shufan Lin, Sijin Dong

Zhangjiang University · Ibaraki University

Question Answering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Uncertainty Calibration

Aug 12, 2026cs.CL

LODESTAR: Trustworthy Entropy Is Navigated, Not Merely Measured -- Reinforced Polarizer Keeps a Frozen LLM from Being Confidently Misled by the Wrong Evidence

Predictive-distribution entropy makes a strong selection rule in retrieval-augmented question answering: across five QA benchmarks, keeping the candidate answer that a frozen respondent LLM produces with the lowest answer-token entropy lifts mean answer

F_1

from 0.4769 to 0.5148 over the retriever's top-ranked passage, with no gold answers. Yet this lowest-entropy rule, which prior entropy-based selectors adopt, fails in a specific and consequential way: a misleading passage makes the respondent confidently wrong, driving its entropy down precisely where the signal looks most trustworthy. We show that the failure comes from the passage the respondent reads -- and the context that passage is read in is an input we can intervene on. We introduce LODESTAR, to our knowledge the first method to score a text intervention by the uncertainty it induces in a third-party frozen respondent, compared across one question's candidates. LODESTAR uses reinforcement learning to train, once and offline, a polarizer -- a short fixed natural-language string inserted into the respondent's prompt and never into its weights; its training labels are built offline from gold answers and two LLM judges, and inference reads neither. Evaluating every competing selector under the same frozen respondent and the same candidate pools on 5,008 questions, LODESTAR attains the highest mean

F_1

of any inference-ready selector (0.5148 to 0.5339), the highest exact match (0.4136), and the highest GPT-4o judge score of the frozen-respondent configurations judged (0.6435); its three-seed mean wins all 70 method-by-dataset

F_1

cells against fourteen published configurations while remaining paired-significant against every one. The gain holds both in-domain and out-of-domain, and ablating the polarizer shows it is what makes the respondent read a misleading passage less often (26.0% against 30.3%).

Po-Jen Ko, Che-Cheng Wu, Hung-Chun Hsu +2

1Research Center for Information Technology Innovation, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

Retrieval-Augmented Generation LLM Uncertainty Estimation RAG Evaluation

Aug 12, 2026cs.CL

Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for language models are typically evaluated on single-turn outputs, where uncertainty is attached to one generated answer. For LLM agents, however, the unit of observation is an interactive trajectory, where the model can ask clarifying questions, call tools, update state, and make intermediate decisions whose errors propagate to the final outcome. We study whether three common families of single-turn UQ methods transfer to this setting. Across five LLMs and four multi-turn tool-use datasets from BFCL-v4 and

τ^2

-bench, we evaluate white-box scorers based on action-token probabilities, black-box consistency scorers based on resampled trajectories, and reflexive scorers based on model self-assessment of the trajectory. We find that transfer is often useful but uneven. Token-probability scores are highly sensitive to the choice of aggregator used across turns, reflexive scores provide the strongest low-cost baseline in most evaluated settings, and black-box self-consistency is often the strongest UQ family, with trajectory-equivalence and action-set consistency typically ranking highest among its variants. These results suggest that UQ methods developed for single generations should be revalidated at the trajectory level, with careful attention to the consistency measurement, aggregator choice, and computational budget.

Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh Chauhan

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Agent Evaluation LLM Uncertainty Estimation Tool-Using Language Agents

Aug 11, 2026cs.AI

When Self-Consistency Backfires: Majority Vote Hurts the Majority of Hard Science Problems for Small LLMs

Self-consistency (SC) via majority vote is a widely used way to spend inference-time compute: sample N chains of thought, return the plurality answer. On the full GPQA Diamond benchmark (198 graduate-level science questions), majority voting reduces per-problem accuracy on a majority of problems for two instruction-tuned models from different families: 56.6% of problems for Qwen2.5-7B and 65.7% for Llama-3-8B, with Qwen the primary demonstration and Llama corroborating the direction from a near-chance baseline. The effect was pre-registered on a 151-problem confirmatory split after being observed on 47 exploratory problems, and all four confirmatory hypotheses passed. A grid oracle that routes each problem to the best N across {1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64} marks a theoretical upper bound 14 accuracy points above N = 1 for Qwen and 17 for Llama, an oracle bound requiring ground truth rather than a deployable method. No verifier-free gate reaches it: neither a plurality-agreement gate nor a token-entropy gate moves accuracy more than 0.002 from fixed-budget voting at N = 64. The mechanism is direct: confidence does not track correctness on these problems. In the highest-agreement bin the plurality answer is correct about half the time for Qwen, and for Llama that bin is less accurate than its lowest-agreement bin. We pre-register and confirm these findings on small instruction-tuned models; we do not test reasoning-native models, which we flag as the central open question.

Utkarsh Bahuguna

Scaler School of Technology

LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Majority Voting

Aug 11, 2026cs.CL

Attention-Path Fragility as an Uncertainty Signal in Large Language Models

We propose that a model's uncertainty about a token is reflected not only in the breadth of its output distribution but also in whether a confident prediction is \emph{fragile} under perturbation of its attention pathways. We instantiate this as ASMI (Attention-Subnetwork Mutual Information), a training-free estimator that masks attention heads and measures the BALD mutual information among the resulting subnetworks, with a semantic-agreement kernel to discount surface-form disagreement. The signal is not a restatement of output confidence: on grounded QA an out-of-fold test shows it adds error-predictive information beyond single-pass confidence and entropy, concentrated in \emph{confident-but-fragile} predictions, where acting on it roughly halves the retained error of a confidence filter. The distinctness is regime-graded, so ASMI predicts its own domain of applicability, strong where answers are routed through provided context and bounded by design where they are recalled from parametric knowledge. Sem-ASMI reads the signal from a single greedy response, without the stochastic generations the strongest baselines require, and ties or beats Semantic Entropy on ten of the twelve grounded benchmark-backbone settings. Across the same twelve settings, the best ASMI variant, typically the adaptive one reusing the ten samples already drawn for the baselines, ties or leads the strongest baseline in eight, significantly in three under a paired test. On parametric QA all variants revert to or below the zero-cost MSP baseline, exactly as predicted, and the estimates are near-deterministic across reruns. A head-level analysis shows that what tracks this boundary is not the presence of head-level fragility but whether that fragility couples to errors.

Minsoo Kim, Sungyoung Ji, Kisung Moon +1

POSCO Holdings Future Technology Research Institute 440, Teheran-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Aug 11, 2026cs.SD

Whisper-Aware LLM: Self-Supervised Uncertainty Learning for Robust Whispered Speech Recognition

The signal ambiguity of whispered speech drives ASR systems toward two opposing failure modes: failing to capture whispered speech or hallucinatory transcription of noise. This paper introduces the Whisper-Aware LLM, a framework that teaches an Audio-LLM to perceive and react to this uncertainty. Our model develops an intrinsic self-awareness by learning to quantify the physical deficiencies of acoustic signals through targeted self-supervised tasks. This learned uncertainty is then operationalized via a novel Confidence-Fused Decoding mechanism, which provides both high-level instructions and frame-level attention modulation to the LLM decoder. Our experiments confirm the effectiveness of this approach. The model sets a new state-of-the-art on whispered speech with a 17% relative CER reduction on AISHELL6-Whisper. At the same time, it directly addresses the reliability trade-off, with hallucination rates dropping from over 25% to 4.5%.

Gaopeng Xu, Zhenyu Wang, Zheng Xue +2

Qwen Business Unit of Alibaba, China

Uncertainty Quantification Automatic Speech Recognition LLM Uncertainty Estimation Speech Language Models

Aug 11, 2026cs.CV

Rethinking LLM Verification: Evidence Structure, Uncertainty, and Selective Refinement

Large language models (LLMs) often rely on shortcuts rather than systematic reasoning, raising safety concerns in medical applications. Allowing models to abstain when uncertain improves reliability but introduces a coverage accuracy tradeoff. We propose a two-stage framework for medical hypothesis verification in multiple-choice settings that manages this tradeoff through targeted ontology grounding, applied only when the model abstains. We show that abstention is not random but reflects genuine uncertainty, with abstained predictions associated with lower confidence. Across two frontier models (GPT-5.5, accessed via the Azure OpenAI API, and DeepSeek-R1), the proposed framework improves question-level accuracy by 9.6 percentage points (82.9% to 92.5%) and hypothesis-level accuracy by 4.2 percentage points (92.0% to 96.2%). Our experiments conducted on MedReason and MedQA show that abstention can be repurposed as a control signal for selective reasoning refinement, achieving knowledge-graph-level performance without explicit knowledge graph construction.

Uma Ranjan, Kunal Tilaganji, Aditya Koul +9

Indian Institute of Technology Jammu · Microsoft Research · SCB Dental College and Hospital, Cuttack

LLM Grounding LLM Answer Verification Selective Prediction Question Answering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Medical LLMs

Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

ProbGuard: Calibrated Safety Risk Estimation from LLM Output Distributions

Recent research on Large Language Model (LLM) safety has widely adopted guardrails to identify unsafe LLM outputs. Existing guardrails typically formulate safety assessment as a deterministic classification task, mapping a discrete token sequence to a discrete safety label. However, this paradigm has two limitations: First, safety assessment is inherently an uncertain problem, particularly during the early generation state. Second, relying solely on discrete token sequences discards the rich probabilistic information embedded in the LLM output distribution. To address these limitations, we propose the first completely probabilistic architecture-agnostic guardrail \textsc{ProbGuard} to leverage the LLM early output distributional signals for estimating and calibrating the safety probability, thereby enabling early stopping of unsafe ongoing outputs. Specifically, given an LLM's generated prefix distribution, we formulate the safety risk as the unsafe probability of its continued generation dynamics and estimate this risk by Monte-Carlo sampling. Through post-training on the distributional signals and calibrated safety risk, \textsc{ProbGuard} achieves the best calibration performance across all nine model--dataset combination settings, reducing the average Brier score and ECE by 79.6% and 71.9%, respectively, over the best baseline. \textsc{ProbGuard} further limits the attack success rate to at most 1% across six representative jailbreak attacks after observing the LLM early output distributions from only the first ten decoding steps.

Xinzhe Huang, Biwu Yao, Kedong Xiu +4

State Key Laboratory of Blockchain and Data Security, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · Hangzhou High-Tech Zone (Binjiang) Institute of Blockchain and Data Security, Hangzhou, China · University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China +3

LLM Guardrails Language Model Calibration Safety Filtering LLM Safety Evaluation LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

Actionable Hallucination Detection: Translating Latent Uncertainty into Agentic Critique

Large Language Models (LLMs) deployed as AI agents frequently exhibit user specification-grounding failures, executing hallucinated, undesired actions to force a resolution rather than expressing uncertainty. Existing detection methods fail to provide actionable, real-time correction as they either do not localize the hallucinations, or incur prohibitive inference latency. We introduce the Latent Critic, a lightweight low-rank adapter (LoRA) that operates concurrently with a frozen base LLM's generation to actively restructure the transformer's residual stream---amplifying latent grounding signals and translating them into localized, natural language feedback within a single sequence. By refining the base model's native uncertainty signals, this manipulation of the latent space enables reliable, granular detection without the overhead of secondary inference loops. Mechanistic analysis via activation patching and layer-wise probing shows that this rank-invariant behavior restructures pre-existing uncertainty geometry into a linearly separable representation that transfers more reliably than base model representations alone. Using tool-calling as an instantiation of granular hallucinations, we validate the detection and downstream improvements enabled by the Latent Critic architecture across Qwen and Llama-based models. Demonstrating superior real-time efficacy, our approach significantly outperforms equivalent-scale fine-tuned external detectors, semantic entropy baselines, and passive internal probes in isolating hallucinations, achieving 0.966 AUROC and >80% accuracy in localization (e.g., ungrounded: date). When deployed in a closed-loop ReAct environment, the Critic acts as a negligible latency guardrail, intercepting hallucinations before execution to prevent undesired actions while simultaneously leveraging this specific localized feedback to enable efficient agent self-correction.

Sanidhya Vijayvargiya, Rahul Lokesh

Samsung Research America

LLM Hallucination Mitigation Hallucination in Language Models LLM Hallucination Detection LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Agent Safety

Aug 10, 2026cs.CL

When Confidence Fails: Overconfidence in LLMs under Uncertainty and Missing Clinical Information

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance in medical question answering and clinical reasoning tasks. However, their reliability under uncertainty remains poorly understood which raises critical concerns for deployment in high-stakes clinical settings. In such environments, incorrect predictions are inherently risky, but confident incorrect predictions can be particularly harmful as they may mislead clinical decision-making. In this paper, we conduct a systematic behavioral analysis of LLMs under clinical information uncertainty. We propose an evaluation framework based on the MedMCQA dataset consisting of two complementary uncertainty settings. First, we introduce linguistic uncertainty cues through prompt modifications to simulate ambiguous clinical contexts. Second, we construct an answer removal setting, wherein the correct option is deliberately excluded mandating the model to recognize insufficient information and abstain. We analyze both model accuracy and confidence behavior using multiple calibration metrics including calibration gap, Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Unsafe Confident Error Rate (UCER) across 500 medical questions. Our results reveal a consistent failure mode, i.e., although accuracy degrades under increasing uncertainty, model confidence remains misaligned with accuracy. This leads to a substantial increase in unsafe confident errors, indicating that model confidence remains largely insensitive to clinically meaningful information loss. Furthermore, we observe significant variation across models in their ability to abstain when the correct answer is unavailable, with some models persistently producing high confidence hallucinated answers. These findings expose critical limitations in the epistemic reliability of current LLMs and highlight the need for uncertainty aware evaluation methods prior to their deployment in clinical workflows.

Maryam Tahermazandarani, Adnan Mahmood, Fahmida Islam +1

School of Computing, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

Hallucination in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation Clinical Language Model Evaluation Uncertainty Calibration LLM Abstention

Aug 9, 2026cs.CL

Unsure but Certain: Uncovering the Representation-Confidence Gap in Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion language models use broad context to create text, suggesting they might handle input noise better than standard models. Testing reveals this is only partially true. Internally, diffusion models detect text errors highly accurately. Externally, their reported certainty ignores this signal. As accuracy drops due to noise, confidence stays near its maximum and the ability to correctly rank answers degrades toward random chance. We call this mismatch the representation confidence gap. The visible concentration of high certainty scores is a misleading surface symptom. Standard math adjustments remove this concentration but fail to fix the underlying loss of ranking order. This ranking deficit favors standard models under noisy conditions and resists common remedies. Matching training recovers accuracy but not ranking, while score recalibration and input level error signals cannot reorder the final answers. However, the information needed to properly evaluate an answer survives in the hidden states. A lightweight extraction tool uses this signal to improve ranking. This approach is highly efficient because it leaves the base model completely frozen and requires zero additional text generation steps. We present this tool to prove the signal exists, while clearly noting its limits. Ultimately, certainty reliability is a more pressing limit than overall accuracy under noisy conditions.

Saurabh Yadav, Badri Narayana Patro, Vijay Srinivas Agneeswaran

Microsoft India

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation Diffusion Language Models Language Model Robustness