Malaria

Detecting infection-related behavioral changes in mosquitoes from video data is challenging because mosquitoes are small, move rapidly and irregularly, and are affected by environmental factors such as background, lighting, and shadows, which can make reliable feature extraction difficult. In this study, a YOLO- and Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP)-based vision-language framework is proposed to classify mosquito flight frames of uninfected and Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV2)-infected mosquitoes. First, YOLO is used to isolate mosquito regions from the background. Then, visual features extracted from video frames are aligned with biologically meaningful textual prompts in a shared embedding space. The multimodal model was fine-tuned using supervised bidirectional contrastive learning and evaluated through frame-level image-text similarity-based classification. The results show that the proposed method achieved 98.54% accuracy and 99.91% sensitivity at the frame level. After temporal aggregation of frame-level information, the model achieved complete video-level performance. The ablation results showed that fine-tuning and CLIP-based representations were essential for this domain, while the textual branch provided semantic image-text alignment rather than an accuracy advantage over the vision-only model. These findings suggest that vision-language models can provide a useful framework for analyzing infection-related biological behaviors from video data.

Identifying dengue virus-infected mosquitoes from control mosquitoes is a major challenge in analyzing mosquito locomotion behavior due to the small size and complexity of the video background. Conventional AI methods are often unable to extract accurate features from video frames and produce erroneous features. In this study, a three-step framework is introduced: first, mosquitoes are identified and the background is removed using the YOLO 11M model, then visual features are extracted using the Vision Transformer (ViT), and finally the videos are classified with a convolutional GRU (ConvGRU) classifier. A comparative analysis of different models, including Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and their convolutional versions showed that the ConvGRU model achieved the best performance; it achieved 88.88% accuracy, 84.45% precision, 82.82% recall, and 82.81% F1 score. These results demonstrate that combining convolutional models with sequence-based networks, especially in the ConvGRU model, allows the simultaneous extraction of precise spatial features and long-term temporal dependencies from mosquito movements. Finally, the proposed framework provides a reliable solution for analyzing mosquito behavior in complex environments.

Malaria remains a leading cause of mortality in resource-limited settings, where expert microscopists are scarce. Automated diagnosis based on microscopy images thus has strong potential to improve care delivery. But for an algorithm to deploy, a necessary requirement is that it meet a suite of non-obvious (from a machine learning (ML) perspective) clinical constraints. Therefore, in close consultation with a national health center we developed a malaria diagnosis pipeline which addresses key requirements listed by the health care center but typically ignored in the ML malaria literature. In particular, it includes: (i) stopping criteria (to reduce image acquisition and time-to-result); (ii) human-in-the-loop functionality (for review and accountability); (iii) multi-species discrimination (since treatment varies by species); (iv) thick film detection (standard for microscopy); (v) computationally-efficient uncertainty calculations (to aid clinician review); and (vi) an edge device platform (since internet can be spotty in this catchment area). The mobile system performs all inference on-device using YOLOv13n deployed via TensorFlow Lite. It detects four species and white blood cells from Giemsa-stained thick blood smear images, aggregating per-image detections into slide-level parasitemia with World Health Organization (WHO)-standard quantification. This paper highlights these various clinical constraints and offers methods to address them. Evaluated on 2,739 annotated images across all four species, the system achieves mAP@0.5 of 0.863, per-image parasite count correlation of r = 0.812, slide-level r = 0.951 (soft counting, 10 images/slide), and runs entirely offline with a pipeline time of 10.27 +- 1.65 s per image.

Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation. However, newly established surveillance systems often lack the historical data needed to train reliable neural forecasting models. Although pretrained time-series models offer promising zero-shot forecasts, their cross-domain training may not capture local epidemiological dynamics. We propose TREA-Net, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data. TREA-Net augments neural forecasting backbones with projections from an Environmental Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and learns a lightweight gated residual correction transferable from data-rich to data-scarce regions. Its node-invariant design accommodates surveillance systems with different numbers of locations, while target adaptation requires learning only two global parameters. We transfer knowledge from long-running dengue surveillance in Colombia and Nicaragua to 8-week-ahead forecasting in Mexico and Malaysia using only 78 or 104 weeks of target data. Across five neural backbones and ten transfer settings, TREA-Net improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains. When integrated with TiRex, a foundation model for forecasting, it achieves the lowest mean absolute error across all target datasets. Conformal prediction further maintains empirical coverage while reducing 8-week prediction-interval width by 29.6% in Mexico. These results demonstrate TREA-Net's potential as a lightweight and portable early-warning framework for health agencies with limited surveillance data.

A consensus anomaly detection framework was applied to monthly malaria surveillance data from Ghana (2014-2023) to identify atypical transmission patterns. Anomalies were highly structured in space and time. Ashanti and Northern Regions accounted for most recurrent anomalies, with persistent hotspots at Tamale, Kumasi, and Accra. A key finding was the spatial distinction between anomaly burden (cumulative cases during anomalous periods) and anomaly frequency (persistence of unusual behaviour). Tamale had the highest burden during anomalies, whereas the highest anomaly rates clustered in Ashanti districts, showing that high-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission. Anomalous months formed a statistically distinct group, with much higher case counts (Cohen's $d = 3.252$) and large seasonal deviations ($d > 1.2$) compared with normal months. Malaria burden alone provides an incomplete picture of transmission dynamics. By distinguishing where malaria is most prevalent from where transmission behaves most unusually, this framework can strengthen surveillance, prioritise investigations, and support targeted control strategies.

Accurate dengue forecasting is crucial for public health planning, but remains challenging because incidence series are often short, noisy, non-stationary, nonlinear, and often affected by long-range temporal dependence. Fractional differencing in Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) helps balance non-stationarity and persistence, but its linear structure limits its ability to capture nonlinear dynamics. Deep neural networks can model nonlinear patterns, but usually require large training samples and do not explicitly encode statistical long memory. Echo State Networks (ESNs), a widely used reservoir computing framework, are attractive in this setting because they retain nonlinear recurrent dynamics while training only a simple readout, making them suitable for data-scarce scenarios. However, standard ESNs lack long-term memory from a time-series perspective. This study proposes a long-memory reservoir computing framework that integrates dedicated long-memory and short-memory ESN reservoirs with a ridge-regression readout. We introduce two variants: Fractional ESN (fESN), which incorporates fractional-differencing dynamics into the reservoir to encode long-range dependence directly, and Wavelet ESN (wESN), which extracts stable low-frequency components through wavelet smoothing before modeling them with a memory-aware reservoir. We establish theoretical guarantees for closed-loop reservoir dynamics, showing that standard ESNs induce short-memory processes under mild conditions, whereas the proposed long-memory reservoirs generate polynomially decaying dependence consistent with statistical long memory. Across multiple dengue datasets and forecasting horizons, fESN and wESN outperform statistical and deep learning baselines. Combining conformal prediction with fESN and wESN provides distribution-free calibrated uncertainty intervals.

Automated malaria diagnosis from blood smear microscopy is a critical challenge in global health AI; in resource-limited settings, the scarcity of expert microscopists remains the primary bottleneck to timely and accurate diagnosis. Three compounding failure modes prevent reliable clinical deployment of existing deep learning systems. First, end-to-end detectors treat unannotated cells as background during training, producing recall figures that are strongly influenced by annotation completeness rather than reflecting true cell recovery. Second, Non-Maximum Suppression tends to suppress valid detections in dense smear regions where infection counts matter most. Third, existing whole-slide detection pipelines lack per-cell spatial evidence for clinical audit, despite image-level explainability methods such as Grad-CAM having been applied to malaria image classification tasks. We present MalariAI, a two-stage decoupled framework that addresses all three failure modes in a unified pipeline. Stage 1 applies an annotation-agnostic distance-transform guided watershed algorithm to isolate every cell in a full 1600x1200 blood smear image, recovering 75.95% of ground-truth cells by centroid localisation across the 120-image NIH BBBC041 test set without any ground-truth input. Stage 2 fine-tunes EfficientNet-B0 with Focal Loss (gamma = 2.0, per-class inverse-frequency weights) on 64x64 crops, achieving 98.36% overall classification accuracy with 87.5% and 75.0% per-class accuracy on the rare schizont and gametocyte stages, compared to only 24.57% and 25.95% AP for a Faster R-CNN baseline on the same classes. Grad-CAM++ heatmaps generated per detected cell provide instance-level spatial evidence for clinical audit, enabling microscopists to verify model predictions at the individual parasite level without sacrificing classification performance.

Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the reliability of conventional models. In Ghana, district-level malaria surveillance requires forecasting frameworks that are probabilistically rigorous and robust under limited data. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for modelling monthly under-five malaria admissions. GPR captures non-linear behaviour and predictive uncertainty, while Holt-Winters stabilises long-horizon forecasts and preserves seasonal structure. Using ten years of district-level data (2014-2023), performance was evaluated via rolling-origin expanding-window validation. The hybrid model achieved $R^2 = 0.9906$ versus $0.8213$ for Holt-Winters alone, with $94.2\%$ of residuals within $\pm 2σ$ bounds. Forecasts for 2024-2028 project average monthly admissions from approximately 8{,}000 to 12{,}200 cases. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed pronounced ecological heterogeneity: northern high-burden districts exhibited stable relative patterns despite large absolute fluctuations. The framework provides a scalable probabilistic approach for malaria early warning and operational planning in endemic settings, supporting Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

Reliable quantification of malaria dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is hindered by short, noisy, and spatially heterogeneous surveillance records. In Ghana, health-facility data from 2014 to 2023 reveal non-linear and age-specific fluctuations in hospital admissions, yet existing approaches struggle to capture stochastic variability or provide credible uncertainty bounds. This study develops a Bayesian nonlinear inference framework that integrates a cubic baseline with a damped oscillatory kernel, estimated via an affine-invariant ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. The framework accommodates limited data, models parameter uncertainty, and generates probabilistic forecasts for children under five years and individuals aged five years or more. Results show strong empirical adequacy ($R^2 = 0.9958$ for $<5$ years; $R^2 = 0.9956$ for $\geq 5$ years) with residual errors below $2\%$ and well-mixed posteriors confirming convergence. District-level analysis reveals pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with coefficients of variation ranging from $<0.07$ in urban centres such as Kumasi to $>3.3$ in peripheral districts such as Mpohor and Bia East. Forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a gradual resurgence: from 137,000 to 149,000 cases among children under five years and from 348,000 to 375,000 cases among older individuals, with uncertainty widening over time. By producing probabilistic forecasts, this Bayesian framework provides a principled tool for anticipating malaria fluctuations and strengthening data-driven decision-making in Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

Malaria remains a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where scarce diagnostic infrastructure makes timely, accurate diagnosis particularly challenging. While deep learning offers a compelling path toward automated malaria screening, clinical adoption is hindered by computational cost and opacity in decision-making. This work benchmarks four deep learning models spanning a wide range of designed design architectures and model capacities on the NLM-Malaria dataset, jointly evaluating predictive performance, robustness, and post-hoc explainability. We find that lightweight, efficient-by-design models match their heavier counterparts in predictive performance, and the Friedman test confirms no statistically significant performance differences. CAM-based XAI methods consistently localize diagnostically relevant regions, while fine-grained attribution methods produce less targeted explanations, particularly with heavier backbones. Robustness evaluation under three types of image corruption further reveals that model confidence degrades faster than accuracy, providing a practical signal for human review. However, no XAI method is robust to corruption, with explanation reliability degrading at noise levels plausible in clinical practice, even when predictions remain accurate. These findings support the deployment of lightweight architectures for malaria diagnosis in resource-constrained settings, while highlighting the vulnerability of post-hoc explanations as an important consideration for responsible clinical deployment.

Dental aerosol procedures produce sub-50 micrometre nuclei that can remain airborne for long periods in enclosed clinics, creating pathways for airborne pathogen transmission. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations with Euler-Lagrange particle tracking capture this transport accurately but require very long run times per scenario, which precludes real-time clinical decision support in 3D. We present the Eulerian-Lagrangian Graph Interaction Network (ELGIN), a physics-informed graph surrogate that jointly predicts carrier-flow dynamics on the OpenFOAM polyhedral mesh and the per-parcel motion of the polydisperse spray cloud. ELGIN couples a multi-head Graph Transformer with Jacobi-preconditioned learnable pressure projection and a turbulence-closure head to a sigmoid-gated Lagrangian Interaction Network through differentiable inverse-distance mesh-parcel coupling, and advances parcels with a symplectic Stormer-Verlet integrator. A four-stage physics-informed curriculum stabilises 260-step autoregressive rollouts without gradient explosion. A parameter sweep with foam-extend 4.1 OpenFOAM reactingParcelFoam across clinically relevant ventilation rates and handpiece spray speeds provides CFD ground truth. This article reports a single-case demonstration in which both ELGIN and a Lagrangian-only baseline (M0) are trained and evaluated on Sweep_Case_03 of a twenty-case sweep; full 16/2/2 retraining is in progress and will replace all reported metrics. On this case, ELGIN tracks the foam-extend particle cloud much more closely than M0: mean parcel displacement error falls from 19.56% to 16.20% of room width and cloud radius-of-gyration error from 9.85% to 6.58%. A 26-second rollout completes in ~64 s on a 4 GB GPU, approximately 37x faster than the foam-extend reference pipeline, toward per-appointment infection-risk screening once the multi-case checkpoint is in place.

One of the main causes of death around the globe is malaria. Researchers have sought to develop predictive models for malaria outbreaks based on meteorological data, climate data and the breeding cycle of Plasmodium, the causative agent of malaria. This study predicts the severity of malaria based on environmental and biological factors. A logistic regression model was developed in this study to predict the severity of malaria based on such factors as sickle cell disease, stagnant water, garbage dump, wet lawns, and the use of treated mosquito nets, with an 83.3% accuracy rate. The study was carried out in the Bosomtwe District of Ghana with 417 respondents. It was deduced that although children in the District are highly prone to malaria infection, the severity is very low. The study recommends that not just having a good sample size alone is important during machine learning model development, but also having a good sample representation of the various class labels is equally important.

Malaria, childhood acute respiratory infection, and child undernutrition together account for over two million deaths annually in children under five, with the burden concentrated in low and middle-income countries where climate variability modulates transmission, exposure, and nutritional outcomes. Routine health surveillance in these settings remains sparse and reactive. Satellite-derived representations of the Earth's surface offer a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional covariates, yet their utility as predictors of population health outcomes is poorly characterised. We summarise findings from three studies evaluating AlphaEarth Foundations 64-dimensional satellite embeddings as predictors of population health outcomes, focusing on vulnerable populations. The studies span infectious disease (malaria, respiratory infection) and stunting. In each study, embeddings provide predictive value at sufficient spatial granularity: (i) malaria prediction across Nigeria shows consistent per-region R^2 gains; (ii) childhood acute respiratory infection prediction across 11 DHS countries increases pooled R^2 from 0.157 to 0.206 across three tree-based estimators; (iii) stunting prediction across 35 countries is neutral at country level due to collinearity with fixed effects. The stunting case is currently limited by lack of DHS cluster-level coordinates, which is the next key experiment.