Spearman Correlation

Coding-agent benchmarks are built for broad and comprehensive comparisons, not frequent development decisions. Individual runs vary, full suites are expensive, and the benchmark harness may differ from the harness used in practice. In a resampling analysis of DeepSWE's published trials, only 19.5% of tasks (22 of 113) had a fifth-percentile Pearson correlation of at least 0.50 with full-benchmark performance. The paper presents DeltaSelect, an open-source method that identifies tasks whose one-run results consistently track full-benchmark performance using Pearson correlation, maps fractional verifier results to a common score using linear regression, and selects a fixed task set within a dollar budget. DeltaSelect is intended for repeated baseline-versus-candidate comparisons during development, not model rankings. In a gpt-5.6-luna low-reasoning case study, DeltaSelect was used to revise custom skills and instructions. Across 13 evaluations, the recorded cost was USD 27.86 at rates published August 16, 2026. The adopted version cost 58.1% less than the initial version (USD 1.75 versus USD 4.18; p=0.008), while the calibrated score was higher (42.36% versus 36.46%; published-analog variance p=0.326).

Model-generated text is finding its way back into training corpora, and there is plenty of evidence that training on such data over and over collapses output diversity. Prior work has studied the phenomenon itself: which protocols and which data mixtures cause collapse. But different models behave very differently under the same process. We fix one recursive contamination protocol and let 13 publicly released checkpoints form an ecosystem that shares a common corpus for five generations. The unique 4-gram outcome after five generations ranges from 0.187 to 0.940 across checkpoints, a roughly five-fold spread: some models are barely touched, others degenerate into repetitive fragments. Changing the composition of the shared pool or mixing in human text keeps the Spearman correlation of the ordering at 0.91--0.97, and changing the random seed keeps it at 0.93--0.98. Whether a model collapses easily under recursive training is, then, a property of the checkpoint itself, and one that has gone largely unexamined. Parameter scale alone does not explain it, since a three-size ladder within one family is not monotonic in size, and none of the static indicators we tested predicts it either. What does work is cheap: let a model iterate on its own output for two or three generations, and its fragility in the larger ecosystem can be inferred from that alone. Collapse speed also responds to intervention. Tightening top-p, which cuts the low-probability tail at generation time, nearly stops collapse within three generations and stabilizes six checkpoints spanning the whole spectrum together, while data-side filtering slows collapse without stopping it.

Low-bit quantization can achieve high recall on some vector representations and fail sharply on others, while average distortion and global rank correlation do not explain the difference. We study quantized vector search at the level of the comparisons consumed by ranking and graph-pruning algorithms. Our first result is a distribution-free decomposition: the probability that a comparison flips is bounded by the probability mass of exact margins near zero plus the tail probability of the calibrated residual. We then account for dependence between residuals that share a query or graph node, and derive covariance-aware second-moment identities and tail bounds under a joint MGF proxy. For a frozen candidate permutation, we prove a deterministic coupling theorem for Vamana neighbour selection: the approximate replay returns the exact neighbour list exactly when all candidate-level pruning actions agree on the frozen exact states. We connect these results to representation geometry through an exact Gaussian oracle, establish a strict correlation gain from a deterministic magnitude bit in an aligned bilinear model, and give a rare-contamination construction showing why marginal Gaussian diagnostics do not imply the required residual tails. When analytical assumptions are unavailable, a held-out block certificate bounds the selective failure risk of a frozen quantized rule. Across learned, classical, and synthetic embeddings, standardized exact margins predict held-out ranking and pruning flip rates substantially better than global rank correlation. The framework applies to coordinate binary codes, RaBitQ, Lucene BBQ, and product quantizers through a common decision interface.

LLM decision components that can operate within agent workflows often produce action-relevant recommendations or judgements together with explanations. Operators may use the named factors to monitor a system, diagnose errors, or decide when to escalate an output. Such use assumes that the explanations agree with the component's observable decision behaviour. We test two interpretations of the named factors: necessity, meaning that changing a factor would change the output, and sufficiency, meaning that retaining it while removing other changeable information would preserve the output. We evaluate these interpretations in two synthetic use cases: recommending advisors to clients and judging prompts for harmfulness or risk. Models return an output and the top three factors that most influenced it. Controlled black-box interventions estimate a necessity score for each factor by measuring how often changing it changes the output, and a sufficiency score by measuring how often retaining it preserves the output. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, the mean Spearman correlations between the cited ranking and the necessity and sufficiency scores are 0.349 and 0.354 for advisor recommendation, and 0.431 and 0.580 for prompt monitoring. Furthermore, an uncited factor scores above the lowest-scoring cited factor in 57.6% of advisor responses under necessity and 58.1% under sufficiency; the corresponding prompt-monitoring rates are 25.8% and 8.9%. The cited top three contain useful information but do not reliably identify the three factors with the strongest measured influence under necessity or sufficiency. The framework provides a black-box reliability check for explanations used in agent oversight while remaining scoped to individual LLM decisions.

Activity-cliff ranking remains difficult because local structural changes can cause large activity differences, while high-quality data that resolve the underlying mechanisms remain limited. To use available activity labels more effectively, we combine absolute-activity regression with ranking-consistency learning. CliffRank trains two parallel predictors with mean squared error, a thresholded listwise loss, and Pairwise Preference Consistency (PPC), which aligns relative ordering in the preference-probability space. On three antimicrobial peptide datasets, CliffRank with ESM2-t12 achieved the highest mean Spearman correlation of 0.5393 and mean Recall@50 of 21.4, although the leading method varied across individual datasets. On three small-molecule datasets, CliffRank with PNA, where PPC was activated after 120 epochs, achieved the highest mean Spearman correlation of 0.6890, while its mean Recall@50 of 30.4 matched that of ACANet-PNA. The PPC results also define its practical limits. Asymmetric initialization improved the MolCLR-GIN averages but did not improve every target. For PNA without pretrained weights, delayed PPC improved selected metrics, but no schedule was best for both mean Spearman correlation and mean Recall@50. Future work should evaluate more targets and antimicrobial peptide systems, develop adaptive PPC schedules, and incorporate protein or membrane context when available.

Peptide-protein affinity models are often evaluated with a single data split, obscuring whether they interpolate among measurements for observed targets or generalize across peptide or target shifts. We integrated three sources of quantitative peptide-protein binding data to obtain 11,349 deduplicated pairs and benchmarked ten peptide representations, ESM-2 protein embeddings, and six regressors under peptide-similarity, within-target, and leave-target-out partitions. Across 60 matched representation-regressor configurations, mean test Spearman correlations were 0.462, 0.669, and 0.530, respectively. The top configuration shifted from ECFP-16 count fingerprints with random forest in the first two settings to HELM-BERT with Extra Trees when exact target sequences were excluded. Representation-rank correlations ranged from -0.042 to 0.624 across partitions, whereas regressor-rank correlations ranged from 0.771 to 0.943. Learning curves showed that representation differences were largest with limited supervision and narrowed as training data increased. PeptideCLM-2 adaptation and simple element-wise interaction features provided no consistent gain over a frozen encoder and direct concatenation under the tested protocols. These conclusions are specific to a dataset that pools transformed Kd, Ki, and IC50 measurements and to target exclusion at the exact-sequence level. Peptide-protein affinity benchmarks should therefore align data partitions with the intended use and jointly assess the effects of data scale, molecular representation, and downstream learner.

Plenoptic point clouds (PPC) are novel data structures that represent the light from different viewing directions in order to provide a higher degree of realism to regular point clouds. This is achieved by associating each point to multiple colors instead of a single one. Here, we present a method to efficiently compress the attributes of a PPC, consisting of a Karhunen-Loève transform over the color attributes followed by multiple attribute coders with intra prediction capability. This compression scheme can be incorporated within the MPEG's geometry-based PCC (G-PCC) standard, using any of G-PCC's existing solutions for attribute coding. Compression performance assessment using PPCs of different spatial resolutions reveals competitive results in comparison to existing methods, such as RAHT-based or video-based PCC solutions. We believe our coder to be the new state of the art.

Model selection for imbalanced binary classification often uses the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), but thresholding makes validation rankings threshold-dependent. SoftMCC is a post-training MCC validation framework on established probability-valued confusion counts, coupling an MCC-specific calibrated identity with a tie-aware, shared-pool selection protocol. Its core score is a covariance-normalized probability-label association, reduces exactly to MCC for hard predictions, and is Pearson-bounded. Under perfect population calibration it equals the Brier skill score with identical candidate ordering; outside that regime the gap does not identify calibration error. Across 18 settings with 12 duplicate-safe grouped repeats, SoftMCC attains the best stability mean rank (2.31) and highest mean tie-corrected Kendall's W (0.659), with a significant Friedman test (p=0.007); Nemenyi analysis separates it from AUPRC and MCC@0.5, while 14-source-family sensitivity retains only the latter. Selected-model utility shows no advantage. Three of six prespecified comparisons have negative mean test-MCC differences, only F1@best survives Holm correction (p=0.014), and the dataset-level test is not significant (p=0.117). Label permutation lowers mean W to 0.092; temperature scaling shifts SoftMCC rankings (mean Spearman 0.851) whereas rank-based and threshold-optimized metrics remain invariant. SoftMCC is a calibration-sensitive MCC-family selector with bounded stability and utility evidence.

Shadow trading -- trading in a peer firm's securities on the basis of material nonpublic information (MNPI) about an "economically linked" company -- is a novel and contested theory of insider trading liability, first prosecuted in SEC v. Panuwat (2023). Enforcing it requires identifying economically linked firms ex ante, a determination the SEC makes only after the fact using mass market surveillance infrastructure. We ask whether NLP can do what the SEC's theory presumes insiders already know: identify peer firms ex ante from publicly mandated disclosures. Using a two-stage LLM pipeline applied to Item 7 (Management's Discussion and Analysis) sections of SEC 10-K filings, we score semantic similarity across 30 M&A events spanning five industries and relate similarity to announcement-day abnormal stock returns. On the Panuwat fact pattern itself the pipeline recovers Incyte among the closest peers, a sanity check on the one case with a known outcome. Across the full dataset, however, we find no association: pooling 217 peer observations, the within-event rank correlation between similarity and abnormal return is +0.07 (permutation p = 0.37), and the mean per-event Spearman correlation is +0.05 with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.08, +0.18] -- narrow enough to exclude any moderate relationship rather than merely failing to detect one. A case-level reading agrees: 14 of 30 events support the hypothesis, 12 contradict it, and 4 are ambiguous. We also find that Incyte fell outside the standard $2B-$10B mid-cap band on the day before the announcement, complicating the "mid-cap oncology" category the SEC invoked. These results are exploratory and bound to this pipeline, corpus, and return measure, but they put pressure on the empirical premise of shadow trading enforcement and bear on constitutional questions surrounding the SEC's financial surveillance infrastructure.

Quantile regression provides a powerful tool for summarizing the conditional distribution of a real valued random variable (r.v.) of interest $Y$ as a function of covariates $Z$ in cases where it shows a large dispersion with high probability, going beyond the situation where standard least square regression is informative/predictive. This article aims to extend this methodology to the pairwise case, when the variable to be explained takes the form of a similarity function between two independent observations, such as pixelated ID photos, as input data of biometric systems) and the explanatory variables take the form of a pair of covariates of the observations, such as the age or the hair color. We establish theoretical guarantees for solutions of this statistical learning problem, considered here as empirical minimizers of a pairwise version of the pinball loss. Leveraging sharp concentration results for $U$-processes, we prove generalization bounds and identify mild conditions under which fast learning rates can be achieved. Confirming the probabilistic analysis, experiments based on simulation data also provide solid empirical evidence of the validity of the methodology promoted here for pairwise quantile regression. Finally, its usefulness from an application perspective is demonstrated by a detailed study aimed at analyzing errors in similarity scoring for facial recognition.

For predictive models, the often-reported performance metrics are the loss and accuracy. In synchronous Brain- Computer Interface (BCI) systems, these metrics are informative for most BCI paradigms; however, for Event-Related Potential (ERP) applications the spelling rate, which measures the number of characters correctly selected is more important as it influences the estimation of information transfer rate (ITR) and any related metric measuring spelling performance. Moreover, ERP-based BCIs hold imbalanced data class distributions, which require reporting metrics that can handle the imbalance, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC). In this work, we study the correlation of the spelling rate with 13 metrics to identify which among them best reflect user spelling performance and how they are affected by trial repetition. The Results of two datasets (a private LARESI ERP dataset and the public OpenBMI ERP dataset) favor the Brier score, Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the metrics that account for class imbalance in binary classification: ROC AUC, area under the Precision-Recall curve (PR AUC), Average Precision (AP), and partial AUC (pAUC). These findings encourage researchers and practitioners to report those metrics in ERP-based BCI experiments.

We evaluate manipulative behavior in six frontier language models across six environments, ranging from negotiation tasks to agentic workflows, resulting in 13{,}590 individual scenarios. Manipulation rates are measured across three axes: framing (mandate honesty or permit manipulation), incentive structure (from no incentives to substantial ones), and task difficulty. Existing benchmarks typically vary a single axis within a single environment, an approach our results show is insufficient. We rank models by manipulation rate and find Spearman rank correlations across environments average $ρ= 0.055$, indicating manipulative tendencies in one task do not necessarily predict those in another. Additionally, we find the axis that drives manipulation varies across different environments. In environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent future actions, instructional framing and structurally binding incentives are the primary drivers; in environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent a ground truth, task difficulty dominates. This split was identified in five environments and validated against a sixth held-out environment. Together, these findings illustrate the importance of rigorous multi-dimensional evaluations when measuring manipulative propensities.

Path-traced synthetic stereo data underlie a large fraction of modern disparity-estimation training pipelines. We report a previously unrecognised property of such data: while the Monte Carlo (MC) noise streams of the two cameras are statistically independent, the underlying \emph{variance fields} -- deterministic per-pixel functions of the rendering integrand -- are highly correlated once aligned by the ground-truth disparity warp. Across 20 scenes rendered with Mitsuba~3, the warped Pearson correlation reaches $ρ{=}0.754{\pm}0.016$ across 20 scenes at $\mathrm{SPP}{=}512$, and on a representative scene remains essentially invariant ($ρ{=}0.778{\pm}0.001$) over a $16\times$ range of samples per pixel. The effect is strongest in Lambertian regions ($ρ{\approx}0.78$) and substantially weaker in glass ($ρ{\approx}0.30$), as predicted by an integrand decomposition into view-independent and view-dependent components. A residual-shuffle intervention that breaks the cross-view alignment while preserving the clean image degrades the GT cost margin by $33\%$ on non-glass and the variance-based winner-take-all accuracy on glass by $4.3\times$, confirming the structure functions as a matching cue. This signal is unique to MC-rendered data and constitutes a candidate sim-to-real shortcut whose impact on trained networks remains to be quantified.

Forecasting benchmarks for retrieval-augmented LLMs routinely confound model capability with information leakage: features labeled with a target's timestamp are often not observable at the system's decision time. We study leakage-controlled equity factor ranking with a retrieval-augmented 7B open-source LLM forecaster. At each month-end from 2023-04 to 2026-03, the forecaster observes only decision-time information: lag-shifted FRED macro variables, recent macro-event summaries, and the Cleveland Fed's archived daily CPI nowcast for unreleased current-month inflation. A macro-analog retrieval module selects historical states, a critic LLM compresses them into one tactical rule, and an actor LLM maps the current state and recent rules into scores for seven U.S. equity style factors. The full pipeline obtains a median monthly Spearman rank IC of +0.154, with positive means across three non-overlapping contiguous 12-month subwindows; the mean IC remains statistically underpowered, with a bootstrap 95% confidence interval that includes zero. Non-LLM baselines under the same decision-time constraint demonstrate that a kNN macro-analog model recovers a comparable median IC, indicating that real-time inflation information and macro-similar retrieval explain much of the median signal. The LLM pipeline retains higher mean IC and a stronger long-short allocation sanity check, suggesting that any marginal benefit is concentrated in the extreme rankings that drive long-short portfolio formation. A descriptive audit of the 36 critic rules and per-month case studies appears in the appendix.

Detectors for GNSS radio-frequency impairments (jamming, spoofing, multipath) are usually reported with a single AUC measured on the distribution they were tuned on. That number falls once conditions move, and the size of the drop is rarely known in advance because labelled field data is scarce. We ask whether this optimism can be predicted before any out-of-distribution data is seen. On an open, parameter-grounded synthetic testbed with a tunable severity shift, we evaluate thirteen detectors (five physics baselines, full-feature logistic regression and multilayer perceptrons, and single-feature learned controls) across four impairment classes. The optimism gap, the difference between in-distribution and shifted AUC, grows monotonically as the shift deepens (mean Spearman correlation 0.50). It is driven by how many observables a detector uses rather than by whether it is learned, and it varies systematically by class. Centrally, a ridge model built only from in-distribution score statistics predicts the gap for a detector it has never seen (R^2 = 0.47) and for an impairment class it has never seen (R^2 = 0.46); both are significant against a 2000-fold permutation null (p < 0.001) and survive removing the feature that is, by construction, part of the target. The headline findings are synthetic. We then run the pre-registered protocol on three open field corpora: on Jammertest 2024 the cross-detector prediction holds (R^2 = 0.11, p = 0.009), and on SatGrid, whose spoofer power sweep gives a calibrated severity axis, in-distribution AUC overstates higher-severity AUC by up to 0.22 and to the point of sign inversion, with in-distribution AUC and realised gap perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman rho = 1.0). The mechanism survives contact with real data, at smaller magnitude than in simulation. We release the testbed, a software-receiver front end, the ingest adapters and the protocol.

Few-shot label acquisition lacks a label-free signal for when additional labels cease to improve accuracy: existing stopping criteria either require a held-out validation set (violating the few-shot premise) or rely on theoretically ungrounded heuristics, so we introduce the spectral saturation index $S(K)=\mathrm{erank}(\hatΣ_W^{(K)})/K$, the exponential spectral entropy of the pooled within-class covariance normalized by per-class support size $K$, which measures the exploration rate per label and falls below a fixed threshold $τ=0.02$ once the explored spectral subspace saturates and marginal accuracy gains vanish; across 49 real tasks (binary, 5-way, 10-way) and three frozen backbones (PCA-50, CLIP ViT-B/32, DINOv2 ViT-S/14), $S(K)$ correlates strongly with the marginal gain on doubling the support set ($ρ_{\text{pool}}=0.6366$, $p=2.9\times10^{-57}$, cluster-bootstrap 95% CI $[0.551,0.720]$), a fixed $τ=0.02$ classifies stop/continue decisions with cluster-bootstrap $\mathrm{AUC}=0.787$ (95% CI $[0.713,0.860]$) with high recall on meaningful gains ($ΔA>1\%$), and a partial correlation controlling for $\log K$ yields $ρ_{\text{partial}}=0.324$ ($p=1.65\times10^{-13}$), confirming $S(K)$ carries spectral information beyond shared $K$-dependence; theory predicts this from first principles, since the population effective rank sets the saturation scale $K_{\text{sat}}\approx\mathrm{erank}(Σ_W)/τ$, $τ=0.02$ sits at the boundary between the first and second descent (Nakkiran et al., 2021), and $O(1/K)$ bias in the sample effective rank explains the small-$K$ hump in $S(K)$; for unregularized linear probes ($C=\infty$), practitioners should halt when $S(K)<0.02$ (PCA-50, hard stop) or monitor $S(K)$ dropping from $\sim0.3\to0.05$ (foundation models, diminishing-returns signal), with computation costing $\sim1$ ms at $d=50$.

Pairwise comparisons combined with aggregation methods like Elo have become central to evaluating generative models, yet concerns remain that they reward superficial stylistic cues or display judge biases. In a more positive turn, we show that model rankings from pairwise comparisons strongly agree with ground-truth-based accuracy rankings when such ground truth is available for comparison. By converting five well-known benchmarks into free-form generative evaluations, we find that Elo rankings achieve a Spearman correlation above 0.9 with accuracy rankings and substantially outperform direct evaluation when the judge is weak. Furthermore, style and judge bias have only minor effects on model rankings, despite most judgments occurring on pairs where both candidate answers are correct (or incorrect). On such pairs, we find that repetition after the final answer (echo) is a causal driver of judge preference.

Predicting the generalization performance of deep neural networks without relying on hold-out validation data is a fundamental challenge in machine learning. While Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) drives the optimization of these highly parameterized models, its heavy-tailed, non-Gaussian dynamics induce complex, scale-invariant trajectories in the parameter space. In this paper, we propose a novel generalization measure based on the Fourier fractal dimension of the network's weight variations. By analyzing the characteristic function of the Lévy-driven stochastic differential equations in the frequency domain, we extract a metric that robustly captures the geometric complexity of the learning process. Furthermore, we introduce a customized Fourier-based optimizer designed to actively regularize this fractal dimension during training. Extensive empirical evaluations on the CIFAR-10, SVHN, and MNIST datasets demonstrate that our proposed Fourier generalization measure exhibits a strong correlation with the actual generalization gap. Our method achieves state-of-the-art Kendall rank correlation coefficients, outperforming a wide array of existing norm-based, margin-based, and PAC-Bayesian measures. Ultimately, this work highlights the potential of frequency-domain fractal analysis as both a powerful predictor for model generalizability and a principled foundation for developing more stable optimization algorithms.

Open-ended mathematics exams are valuable because they assess reasoning, proof construction, algorithmic thinking, and communication of intermediate steps. They are also difficult to grade at scale because instructors must apply partial-credit rubrics consistently while giving feedback that helps students repair misconceptions. This paper evaluates six contemporary large language model (LLM) configurations, Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended, Gemini 3.5 Flash, ChatGPT 5.5 Pro Extended, ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking, Claude Pro Opus 4.7, and Claude Sonnet 4.6, as grading assistants for an undergraduate discrete mathematics examination. The study compares two grading policies. The BASELINE policy uses a stricter rubric-following prompt that emphasizes explicit evidence and complete justification. The LIBERAL policy was added after preliminary grading showed that the baseline condition sometimes applied harsh point deductions and failed to recognize valid partial reasoning. Agreement with human grading is measured at both the question and exam-total levels using mean absolute error, root mean squared error, normalized root mean squared error, Pearson correlation, and exact agreement. The results show that liberal partial-credit prompting reduces average question-level error for every evaluated model family. ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking (LIBERAL) has the lowest average question-level MAE (1.87) and RMSE (2.53), while Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended (LIBERAL) has the lowest total-score MAE (8.00) and RMSE (10.66). However, the strongest total-score Pearson correlation occurs under Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended (BASELINE) at 0.58, showing that point calibration and rank preservation remain distinct goals. We also report practical usability observations.

Across two public LLM leaderboards, many displayed pairwise rankings do not meet a conventional paired-test resolution target under the actual paired evaluation design: 11 of 40 Open LLM Leaderboard v1 pairwise comparisons and 4 of 9 MMLU-Pro top-10 adjacent-rank pairs are unresolved at (alpha, 1-beta) = (0.05, 0.8). The MMLU-Pro count rises to 6/9 under real subject-level clustering and stays at 5-6 out of 9 in 99.9% of category-bootstrap resamples. We frame paired LLM evaluation as a hypothesis-testing problem, invert level-alpha, power-(1-beta) tests, and report a per-pair resolution ratio q = N/N* as the primary diagnostic. A sharp small-effect expansion with an explicit second-order constant shows that the widely-used unpaired Cohen-h-plus-(1-rho) shortcut deviates from the correct N* by approximately a factor of two in the close-comparison regime, a deficit that three of five off-the-shelf calculators(Cohen 1988, G*Power, R pwr) silently inherit when the user post-multiplies their per-arm output by (1-rho). The unresolved-pair pattern remains under multiplicity correction and anytime-valid sequential testing.

Precision oncology requires predicting which drugs will suppress a specific tumor from its molecular profile, but drug-blind sensitivity prediction has plateaued despite increasingly complex drug representations. Here we show that this stagnation reflects a metric artifact rather than a representational bottleneck. The standard benchmark, global Pearson r, is dominated by between-drug potency differences that a trivial drug-mean predictor captures without any cell-specific learning. Per-drug Pearson r, which isolates within-drug cell ranking, reveals that no drug encoding improves over cell-only features across four independent datasets. A controlled experiment channeling mechanism-of-action identity as either a drug feature or a training-distribution constraint identifies the cause. Supplying MoA as a feature yields negligible benefit, whereas using it to stratify training raises per-drug r substantially for targeted kinase inhibitors, because pan-cancer co-training suppresses pathway-specific sensitivity signals. Mechanism-stratified training and response matching from pilot observations provide two deployable strategies that together recover the principal sources of predictive gain in drug-blind sensitivity prediction.

Benchmark evaluation across AI and safety-critical domains overwhelmingly relies on simple averaging. We demonstrate that this practice produces substantially misleading rankings when two conditions co-occur: (1) the evaluation matrix is sparse and (2) items vary substantially in difficulty. Through controlled simulation experiments across four domains -- NLP (GLUE), clinical drug trials, autonomous vehicle safety, and cybersecurity -- we show that Spearman rank correlation $ρ$ between simple-average rankings and ground-truth rankings degrades from $ρ= 1.000$ at 100% coverage to $ρ= 0.809$ at 67% coverage with high difficulty heterogeneity (mean over 20 seeds). A standard two-parameter logistic (2PL) Item Response Theory (IRT) model maintains $ρ\geq 0.996$ across all conditions. A 150-condition grid sweep over sparsity $S \in [0, 0.70]$ and difficulty gap $D \in [0.5, 5.0]$ confirms that ranking error forms a failure surface with a strong $S \times D$ interaction ($γ_3 = +0.20$, $t = 13.05$), while IRT maintains $ρ\geq 0.993$ throughout. We discuss implications for Physical AI benchmarking, where evaluation matrices are often incomplete and difficulty gaps are extreme.

Event cameras have emerged as a high-bandwidth, low-latency sensing modality for safety-critical perception in automated driving systems (ADS), offering microsecond temporal resolution, 120-140 dB dynamic range, and intrinsic absence of motion blur. However, no task-agnostic quality metric currently operates directly on the asynchronous event stream: state-of-the-art proxies require a downstream task (e.g., detection accuracy, tracking error) to assess stream integrity, which is incompatible with the certification requirements of ISO 21448 (SOTIF) and ISO/PAS 8800:2024. The recent BiasBench benchmark (CVPR 2025) explicitly identifies this gap. This work proposes a unified algebraic framework that lifts the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC), historically used in two prior works for redundancy filtering and ROI selection on frame-based images, to the three standard event representations: Time Surface, Event Frame, and Voxel Grid. The framework yields three metrics: (i) r-TS for stream integrity monitoring against an ego-motion-predicted Time Surface, (ii) r2-EF for adaptive ROI selection requiring only integer comparisons, and (iii) r-VG for temporal redundancy gating. A structural isomorphism is established between the contrast-threshold mechanism of the event camera (|Delta L| >= C) and the PCC-based change criterion, the three lifted metrics are formalized, and pipeline latency and information loss are analyzed symmetrically against the raw stream. Illustrative behavior of each metric is demonstrated on a procedural-synthetic event stream, generated by direct simulation of the emission model rather than drawn from any real or video-derived dataset, including a tunnel-dip integrity-anomaly scenario in which r_C drops from 0.93 (coherent flow) to below 0 (alarm). An explicit epistemic convention ([ESTABLISHED], [SOLID], [HYPOTH.], [OPEN]) delineates the status of every contribution.

The LASSO-Clip-EN (LCEN) algorithm was previously introduced for nonlinear, interpretable feature selection and machine learning. However, its design and use was limited to regression tasks. In this work, we create a modified version of the LCEN algorithm that is suitable for classification tasks and maintains its desirable properties, such as interpretability. This modified LCEN algorithm is evaluated on four widely used binary and multiclass classification datasets. In these experiments, LCEN is compared against 10 other model types and consistently reaches high test-set macro F$_1$ score and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) metrics, higher than that of the majority of investigated models. LCEN models for classification remain sparse, eliminating an average of 56% of all input features in the experiments performed. Furthermore, LCEN-selected features are used to retrain all models using the same data, leading to statistically significant performance improvements in three of the experiments and insignificant differences in the fourth when compared to using all features or other feature selection methods. Simultaneously, the weighted focal differentiable MCC (diffMCC) loss function is evaluated on the same datasets. Models trained with the diffMCC loss function are always the best-performing methods in these experiments, and reach test-set macro F$_1$ scores that are, on average, 4.9% higher and MCCs that are 8.5% higher than those obtained by models trained with the weighted cross-entropy loss. These results highlight the performance of LCEN as a feature selection and machine learning algorithm also for classification tasks, and how the diffMCC loss function can train very accurate models, surpassing the weighted cross-entropy loss in the tasks investigated.

Evaluation of Image Quality Assessment (IQA) models has long been dominated by global correlation metrics, such as Pearson Linear Correlation Coefficient (PLCC) and Spearman Rank-Order Correlation Coefficient (SRCC). While widely adopted, these metrics reduce performance to a single scalar, failing to capture how ranking consistency varies across the local quality spectrum. For example, two IQA models may achieve identical SRCC values, yet one ranks high-quality images (related to high Mean Opinion Score, MOS) more reliably, while the other better discriminates image pairs with small quality/MOS differences (related to $|Δ$MOS$|$). Such complementary behaviors are invisible under global metrics. Moreover, SRCC and PLCC are sensitive to test-sample quality distributions, yielding unstable comparisons across test sets. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{Granularity-Modulated Correlation (GMC)}, which provides a structured, fine-grained analysis of IQA performance. GMC includes: (1) a \textbf{Granularity Modulator} that applies Gaussian-weighted correlations conditioned on absolute MOS values and pairwise MOS differences ($|Δ$MOS$|$) to examine local performance variations, and (2) a \textbf{Distribution Regulator} that regularizes correlations to mitigate biases from non-uniform quality distributions. The resulting \textbf{correlation surface} maps correlation values as a joint function of MOS and $|Δ$MOS$|$, providing a 3D representation of IQA performance. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that GMC reveals performance characteristics invisible to scalar metrics, offering a more informative and reliable paradigm for analyzing, comparing, and deploying IQA models. Codes are available at https://github.com/Dniaaa/GMC.