Off-Policy Evaluation

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8 papers in the last four weeks, up 167% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 46

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions

Automated decision-making algorithms drive applications such as recommendation systems and search engines. These algorithms often rely on off-policy contextual bandits or off-policy learning (OPL). Conventionally, OPL selects actions that maximize the expected reward from an existing action set. However, in many real-world scenarios, actions, such as news articles or video content, change continuously, and the action space evolves over time after data collection. We define actions introduced after deploying the logging policy as new actions and focus on OPL with new actions. Existing OPL methods identify optimal actions from the existing set effectively but cannot learn and select new actions because no relevant data are logged. To address this limitation, we propose a new OPL method that leverages action features. We first introduce the Local Combination PseudoInverse (LCPI) estimator for the policy gradient, generalizing the PseudoInverse estimator initially proposed for off-policy evaluation of slate bandits. LCPI controls the trade-off between reward-modeling condition and the condition for data collection regarding the action features, capturing the interaction effects among different dimensions of action features. Furthermore, we propose a generalized algorithm called Policy Optimization for Effective New Actions (PONA), which integrates LCPI, a component specialized for new action selection, with Doubly Robust (DR), which excels at learning within existing actions. We define PONA as a weighted sum of the LCPI and DR estimators, optimizing both the selection of existing and new actions, and allowing the proportion of new action selections to be adjusted by the weight parameter. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that PONA efficiently selects new actions while maintaining the overall policy performance as opposed to most existing methods that cannot select new actions.

Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura +6

Institute of Science Tokyo · Yale University · Sony Group Corporation +1

Off-Policy Evaluation Policy Optimization Contextual Bandits

May 16, 2026cs.AI

Behavior-Induced Mirror-Prox Temporal-Difference Learning for Faster Off-Policy Prediction

Gradient temporal-difference methods provide stable off-policy prediction with linear function approximation, but their practical performance is strongly affected by the geometry induced by the auxiliary-variable metric. Existing Mirror-Prox TD methods typically use the feature covariance metric, whereas hybrid TD methods suggest that behavior-policy transition information can provide a more informative update geometry. This paper proposes a behavior-induced Mirror-Prox temporal-difference method, called STHTD-MP, which replaces the covariance metric in the primal-dual saddle-point formulation with the symmetric part of the behavior-policy Bellman matrix. The method keeps a single learning rate for the primal and auxiliary variables and applies a Mirror-Prox prediction-correction step to the resulting hybrid saddle-point operator. We provide a formal convergence analysis for fixed-policy linear prediction under standard stochastic approximation assumptions: the behavior-induced metric is positive definite, the joint mean system is Hurwitz, boundedness follows from a Lyapunov argument, and the stochastic recursion converges by the ODE method. We further derive projected-oracle ergodic gap bounds and an exact mean-operator comparison with GTD2-MP based on the spectral radius of the deterministic Mirror-Prox error matrix. The analysis shows that STHTD-MP can have a smaller mean contraction factor than GTD2-MP when the behavior-induced metric improves the saddle-point geometry. Exact numerical mean-operator analysis on two-state, Random Walk, and Boyan Chain benchmarks supports this condition, while Baird's counterexample is identified as a singular boundary case where the strict assumptions fail.

Xingguo Chen, Yuchen Shen, Shangdong Yang +3

Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing, China · Department of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China · College of Electronic Countermeasure, National University of Defense Technology, Hefei, China

Off-Policy Evaluation Temporal-Difference Learning

May 16, 2026cs.AI

From Static Risk to Dynamic Trajectories: Toward World-Model-Inspired Clinical Prediction

Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained on observational care logs conflate disease biology with clinician behavior, particularly under treatment confounder feedback and irregular or informative observation. This Review focuses on intervention-aware disease trajectory modeling in clinical AI--methods estimating patient-specific longitudinal disease evolution and assessing trajectory changes under alternative treatments. We organize the field around six linked components: three decision tasks (factual forecasting, counterfactual estimation, policy evaluation) and three data-generating mechanisms (disease evolution, treatment assignment, observation process) that determine identifiability. We present the first unified framework bridging forecasting, counterfactual trajectories, and policy evaluation across discrete/continuous time, explicitly addressing treatment assignment, time-varying confounding, and observation bias. We synthesize key method families (multistate/joint models, temporal point-process, deep sequence architectures, longitudinal causal inference), map them to relevant components, and align evaluation with claim strength via overlap diagnostics, uncertainty quantification, off-policy robustness, and target-trial validation. This synthesis advances benchmark prediction to decision-grade clinical evidence, enabling treatment-sensitive individualized futures, pre-deployment policy stress-testing, and safer closed-loop learning health systems that adapt/abstain when evidence is insufficient.

Pujun Feng, Xiaoyu Guo, Seyed Ehsan Saffari +10

Faculty of Applied Sciences, Macao Polytechnic University, Macao SAR 999078, China. · Medin.ai, Beijing 100871, China. · School of Software & Microelectronics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. +8

Causal Effect Estimation Off-Policy Evaluation Healthcare Clinical Outcome Prediction Counterfactual Prediction Causal Inference+2

May 14, 2026stat.ML

Logging Policy Design for Off-Policy Evaluation

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the value of a target treatment policy (e.g., a recommender system) using data collected by a different logging policy. It enables high-stakes experimentation without live deployment, yet in practice accuracy depends heavily on the logging policy used to collect data for computing the estimate. We study how to design logging policies that minimize OPE error for given target policies. We characterize a fundamental reward-coverage tradeoff: concentrating probability mass on high-reward actions reduces variance but risks missing signal on actions the target policy may take. We propose a unifying framework for logging policy design and derive optimal policies in canonical informational regimes where the target policy and reward distribution are (i) known, (ii) unknown, and (iii) partially known through priors or noisy estimates at logging time. Our results provide actionable guidance for firms choosing among multiple candidate recommendation systems. We demonstrate the importance of treatment selection when gathering data for OPE, and describe theoretically optimal approaches when this is a firm's primary objective. We also distill practical design principles for selecting logging policies when operational constraints prevent implementing the theoretical optimum.

Connor Douglas, Joel Persson, Foster Provost

New York University · Spotify

Off-Policy Evaluation Policy Optimization

May 13, 2026stat.AP

Decision Support for Marketplace Policies under Incomplete Evidence: From Replay to Launch Readiness

Marketplace platforms routinely evaluate pricing and allocation policies using logged observational data, yet strong offline performance does not imply that a policy is safe to deploy. In real-time bidding (RTB) marketplaces, reserve-price and floor-policy changes affect not only revenue but also fill, advertiser value, budget pacing, and competition across auctions, creating feedback and interference. The central problem is therefore not to estimate whether a policy improves an offline metric, but to determine whether the available evidence justifies direct launch or only further validation. In this regard, we propose a support-aware decision-support system (DSS) that distinguishes promising from actionable evidence. The framework integrates replay, support-aware off-policy evaluation (OPE), conservative lower-bound ranking, multi-sided guardrails, out-of-time validation, sensitivity analysis, and interference-aware validation design into a claim-preserving pipeline that outputs a launch-readiness classification rather than a single performance estimate. Applying the framework to iPinYou-style RTB logs, we identify a margin-gated floor policy as the leading candidate, with a 47.7% replay yield lift, a 45.8% conservative lower-tail lift, and stable out-of-time performance. However, the framework does not recommend direct launch. A decision-rule ablation shows that simplified pipelines select the same policy but incorrectly recommend deployment, leaving key causal assumptions unresolved. In contrast, the proposed DSS selects the same policy but changes the action to online validation, reflecting missing evidence on propensities, bidder response, and interference. Overall, the contribution is a reproducible DSS protocol that prevents decision overclaim under partial identification and converts offline evaluation into an auditable, action-oriented recommendation.

Prashant Shekhar, Caroline Howard

Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL, USA

AI-Assisted Decision Making Off-Policy Evaluation Online Advertising Policy Evaluation Partial Identification Real-Time Bidding

May 12, 2026stat.ML

Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains

We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown. We establish distributional consistency of the bootstrap transition estimator in both a single long-chain regime and the episodic offline RL regime. The key technical tools are a novel bootstrap law of large numbers (LLN) for the visitation counts and a novel use of the martingale central limit theorem (CLT) for the bootstrap transition increments. We extend bootstrap distributional consistency to the downstream targets of offline policy evaluation (OPE) and optimal policy recovery (OPR) via the delta method by verifying Hadamard differentiability of the Bellman operators, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and

Q

-functions. Experiments on the RiverSwim problem show that the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), especially the percentile CIs, outperform the episodic bootstrap and plug-in CLT CIs, and are often close to nominal (

50\%

,

90\%

,

95\%

) coverage, while the baselines are poorly calibrated at small sample sizes and short episode lengths.

Ziwei Su, Imon Banerjee, Diego Klabjan

Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60208

Markov Decision Processes Off-Policy Evaluation Offline RL

May 12, 2026cs.AI

Controllable User Simulation

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Guy Tennenholtz, Ofer Meshi, Amir Globerson +3

† Google Research · ‡ Tel Aviv University

Off-Policy Evaluation Causal Inference User Simulation

May 12, 2026cs.RO

Offline Policy Evaluation for Manipulation Policies via Discounted Liveness Formulation

Policy evaluation is a fundamental component of the development and deployment pipeline for robotic policies. In modern manipulation systems, this problem is particularly challenging: rewards are often sparse, task progression of evaluation rollouts are often non-monotonic as the policies exhibit recovery behaviors, and evaluation rollouts are necessarily of finite length. This finite length introduces truncation bias, breaking the infinite-horizon assumptions underlying standard methods relying on Bellman equations/principle of optimality. In this work, we propose a framework for offline policy evaluation from sparse rewards based on a liveness-based Bellman operator. Our formulation interprets policy evaluation as a task-completion problem and yields a conservative fixed-point value function that is robust to finite-horizon truncation. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed operator, including contraction guarantees, and show how it encodes task progression while mitigating truncation bias. We evaluate our method on two simulated manipulation tasks using both a Vision-Language-Action model and a diffusion policy, and a cloth folding task using human demonstrations. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach more accurately reflects task progress and substantially reduces truncation bias, outperforming classical baselines such as TD(0) and Monte Carlo policy evaluation.

Hao Wang, Joshua Bowden, Colton Crosby +1

University of Southern California · Stanford University

RL for Robotics Reinforcement Learning Off-Policy Evaluation Robotic Policy Evaluation Sparse-Reward RL

May 7, 2026cs.LG

Q-MMR: Off-Policy Evaluation via Recursive Reweighting and Moment Matching

We present a novel theoretical framework, Q-MMR, for off-policy evaluation in finite-horizon MDPs. Q-MMR learns a set of scalar weights, one for each data point, such that the reweighted rewards approximate the expected return under the target policy. The weights are learned inductively in a top-down manner via a moment matching objective against a value-function discriminator class. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, a data-dependent finite-sample guarantee for general function approximation can be established under only the realizability of

Q^π

, with a dimension-free bound -- that is, the error does not depend on the statistical complexity of the function class. We also establish connections to several existing methods, such as importance sampling and linear FQE. Further theoretical analyses shed new light on the nature of coverage, a concept of fundamental importance to offline RL.

Xiang Li, Nan Jiang

Nanjing University · UIUC

Off-Policy Evaluation Value Function Estimation Distribution Matching Offline RL

May 7, 2026cs.LG

SOPE: Stabilizing Off-Policy Evaluation for Online RL with Prior Data

Incorporating prior data into online reinforcement learning accelerates training but typically forces a difficult trade-off between high computational costs and long, multi-stage training pipelines. While fixed-length stabilization phases are significantly more computationally efficient than static update schedules, they require task-dependent manual tuning, risking either the waste of prior knowledge or severe overfitting. To address this, we propose SOPE, an algorithm that uses an actor-aligned Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) signal as an automated early-stopping mechanism to dynamically control the length of offline training phases. By evaluating the critic on a held-out validation split under the current policy's action distribution, SOPE halts gradient updates exactly when out-of-distribution benefits saturate, eliminating the need for manual schedule tuning. Evaluated on 25 continuous control tasks from the Minari benchmark suite, SOPE improves baseline performance by up to 45.6% while reducing the required TFLOPs by up to 22x, thus balancing the tradeoff between sample and computational efficiency. These findings demonstrate that adaptive, evaluation-driven update schedules are more effective than relying on static, exhaustive update schedules.

Carlo Romeo, Girolamo Macaluso, Alessandro Sestini +1

1Media Integration and Communication Center – University of Florence · 2SEED – Electronic Arts

Off-Policy Evaluation Offline-To-Online RL

May 2, 2026cs.LG

The Partial Testimony of Logs: Evaluation of Language Model Generation under Confounded Model Choice

Offline evaluation of language models from usage logs is biased when model choice is confounded: the same user-side factors that influence which model is used can also influence how its output is judged, so raw comparisons of logged scores mix self-selected populations rather than estimating a common quantity of interest. A small randomized experiment can break this bias by overriding model choice, but in practice such experiments are scarce and costly. We study a three-source design that combines a large confounded observational log (OBS) for scale, a small randomized experiment (EXP) for unconfounded scoring, and an offline simulator (SIM) that replays candidate models on cached contexts. Our main result is an identification theorem showing that the randomized experiment and the simulator are together enough to recover causal model values; the observational log enters only afterward, to reduce estimation error rather than to make the causal comparison valid. Six estimator families are evaluated in a controlled semi-synthetic validation and in two real-task cached benchmarks for summarization and coding. No family dominates every regime; relative performance depends on the amount of unbiased EXP supervision and on how closely the target reward aligns with OBS-derived structure.

Jikai Jin, Vasilis Syrgkanis

LLM Evaluation Off-Policy Evaluation Language Model Generation Evaluation

Apr 25, 2026cs.LG

Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson, Dominik Rothenhäusler +3

Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University · Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley · Technology and Operations Management Unit, Harvard Business School +3

Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation Off-Policy Evaluation

Apr 24, 2026cs.IR

CASP: Support-Aware Offline Policy Selection for Two-Stage Recommender Systems

Two-stage recommender systems first choose a candidate generator and then rank items within the generated set. Because the generator decides which items are available to the ranker, changing the generator changes both the policy value and the data support used to estimate that value. This creates an offline selection problem that standard single-stage objectives do not capture: a policy may look good under a retrieval score or a raw off-policy value estimate, but still be unreliable if it depends on weakly supported generator-item pairs. We propose CASP (Coupled Action-Set Pessimism), a support-aware offline selector for finite libraries of two-stage recommender policies. CASP combines doubly robust value estimation with a support-burden penalty. We show that stagewise rules that ignore downstream continuation value can be arbitrarily suboptimal, and we derive population, finite-class, and reconstructed-propensity guarantees for conservative selection. In simulations and a reconstructed MovieLens 1M application, CASP selects lower-burden policies when estimated value and support credibility are in tension.

Nilson Chapagain

Texas A&M University College Station, TX, USA

Off-Policy Evaluation Recommender Systems Doubly Robust Estimation

Apr 20, 2026stat.ML

Distributional Off-Policy Evaluation with Deep Quantile Process Regression

This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.

Qi Kuang, Chao Wang, Yuling Jiao +1

School of Statistics and Data Science, and Philosophy and Social Sciences Laboratory of Data Science in Finance and Economics at the Ministry of Education,2026 Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics · School of Statistics and Data Science, Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsApr · School of Artificial Intelligence, and Hubei Key Laboratory of Computational Science, 24 Wuhan University

Distributional RL Quantile Regression Off-Policy Evaluation Sample Complexity

Dec 29, 2025stat.ML

Fitted Q-Evaluation without Bellman Completeness via Occupancy Weighting

Fitted

Q

-evaluation (FQE) is a standard regression-based method for off-policy evaluation, but under distribution shift, value-function realizability alone does not ensure convergence, and existing analyses often require Bellman completeness. We trace this instability to a geometric mismatch: standard FQE projects Bellman targets in the norm induced by the offline distribution, which need not preserve Bellman contraction. We therefore study \emph{occupancy-weighted FQE}, which changes only the regression weights. Weighting by a target-policy discounted occupancy ratio aligns the projection norm with the target-policy dynamics and restores contraction of the population projected Bellman operator. We derive finite-sample guarantees with estimated occupancy ratios and function-class misspecification, separating finite-iteration, statistical, approximation, and ratio-estimation errors. Exact occupancy weighting removes the need for Bellman completeness; with estimated weights, approximate completeness and value-function realizability reduce sensitivity to ratio-estimation error, with exact realizability yielding higher-order dependence. Combining occupancy-weighted FQE with fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation gives an end-to-end guarantee governed by the complexities and direct approximation errors of the value-function and occupancy-ratio classes. Under coverage, joint realizability of these two classes suffices for consistent estimation without Bellman or critic-side completeness. Controlled experiments illustrate the projection-norm mechanism and the finite-sample tradeoff between contraction and coverage.

Lars van der Laan, Nathan Kallus

Department of Statistics, University of Washington · Netflix · Cornell University

Off-Policy Evaluation Value Function Estimation

Jul 26, 2025cs.LG

PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods estimate the value of a new reinforcement learning (RL) policy prior to deployment. Recent advances have shown that leveraging auxiliary datasets, such as those synthesized by generative models, can improve the accuracy of OPE methods. Unfortunately, such auxiliary datasets may also be biased, and existing methods for using data augmentation within OPE lack principled uncertainty quantification. In high stakes domains like healthcare, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for ensuring safe and informed deployment of RL policies. In this work, we propose two methods to construct valid confidence intervals for OPE with data augmentation. The first provides a confidence interval over

V^π(s)

, the policy value conditioned on an initial state

s

. To do so we introduce a new conformal prediction method suitable for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state spaces, extending prior work to higher-dimensional settings. Second, we consider the more common task of estimating the average policy performance over all initial states,

V^π

; we introduce a method that draws on ideas from doubly robust estimation and prediction powered inference. Across simulators spanning inventory management, robotics, healthcare, and a real healthcare dataset from MIMIC-IV, we find that our methods can effectively leverage auxiliary data and consistently produce confidence intervals that cover the ground truth policy values, unlike previously proposed methods. Our work enables a future in which OPE can provide rigorous uncertainty estimates for high-stakes domains.

Aishwarya Mandyam, Jason Meng, Ge Gao +4

Stanford University · Gladstone Institutes · Stanford University[cs.LG]

Off-Policy Evaluation Healthcare Conformal Prediction