Population Dynamics

Some aspects of AI development resemble a population process in which models are specialised, retrained on the output of peers, or combined by averaging weights. These practices lead to generations of models, in the biological sense studied by population genetics. Here, I develop this parallelism and interpret multigenerational model populations in terms of sexual and asexual reproduction, formally recombining the two fields. I test these analogies in an exact inheritance model, in trained networks (recurrent, feedforward and variational autoencoder generators) and in large language models, and show that they hold generally, with some measurable architecture-specific biases. Training recursively on model output is known to lead to model collapse, a process previously described as akin to genetic drift; I develop all that follows. A minimal model of a learner retrained on its parent's output reproduces the Wright-Fisher process exactly; verified real data added to each generation play the role of immigration, with the surprising finding that the absolute number of real data samples matters, not their share, exactly as in population genetics. Training a child on the average of its parents' outputs cancels the benefit of having several parents, matching blending inheritance (and reviving Jenkin's objection to Darwin), whereas combining parents so that each keeps its strongest contribution preserves it; merged language-model specialists exceeded every parent across seeds (the Fisher-Muller effect); and lineages become reproductively isolated, losing the ability to merge at all, when they have learned conflicting conventions and not when they have merely drifted apart. As AI societies become societies in time as well as in space, a mathematical framework for their inheritance acquires predictive power. Remarkably, that framework can be adapted almost wholesale from biology.

How cultural repertoires maintain diversity under selection is a fundamental question in cultural evolution. We address this using thirteen years of weekly popularity data for approximately 20,000 Irish traditional tunes, fitting ecological birth-process models under neutral, frequency-dependent, and per-tune selection hypotheses. We find strong evidence that tunes differ in intrinsic fitness - some are systematically more likely to be learned than others. We find that 29% of the variance in fitness can be explained by a mixture of social and melodic features. Some tunes appear to be carried along via linkage due to the tradition of playing tunes in sets, analogous to selective sweeps in genetics. By measuring changes in fitness over time and comparing this with recordings we precisely identify the mechanism by which a long-dormant tune can become fit through a popular recording. Despite the directional selection, repertoire diversity increases, driven by the continual arrival of new compositions. These results demonstrate that selection and diversity can coexist in a cultural ecosystem, and establish Irish traditional music as a quantitatively tractable system for studying the evolution of cultural variants and understanding what makes a tune stand out.

A/B testing is the gold standard for evaluating product changes, but each experiment requires real user traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of measurement. We propose a simulation framework that predicts A/B test outcomes using LLM-powered agents conditioned on data-driven personas grounded in real user behavioral signals. Unlike prior work that relies on synthetic or rule-based personas, our agents are constructed from anonymized behavioral data-activity patterns, engagement signals, and inferred demographics-enabling more faithful population modeling. We frame A/B test simulation as a structured question task and systematically study (i) question design formats, (ii) the impact of persona data source and domain alignment, (iii) the trade-off between per-persona behavioral depth and population diversity, and (iv) efficient population subsampling. On a benchmark of 40 A/B tests spanning two metric types, our best configuration achieves 0.75-0.90 directional accuracy depending on the test metric, demonstrating that data-driven personas are a viable path toward fast, low-cost experiment pre-screening.

Aerial drone surveys increasingly support wildlife population estimation, yet a useful census is more than a count: population dynamics are defined by species composition, sex ratios and age structure, that is, by which species are present and how a herd splits into adult males, adult females and juveniles. We use red deer ($\textit{Cervus elaphus}$) as a test case, because managers act on these dynamics and because the visible cue defining adult males, the antlers, is seasonally variable. Surveys are flown nadir, high enough not to disturb the animals, so each deer occupies only a small, low-resolution patch. The two recording modalities fail in opposite conditions: in color a deer under canopy blends into the ground, while in thermal it becomes a bright blob that loses fine detail. Rather than trust either modality alone, we fuse them at every stage using self-supervised DINOv3 features. Our pipeline tracks animals in both modalities, treats an animal as confirmed only when the two cameras agree, keeps only the clear, non-occluded frames, and assigns species and sex by a vote across them; life stage is read separately from geo-referenced body size, since at survey resolution a juvenile often only differs from an adult female in size. Across four flights spanning the antler season the fused pipeline correctly classifies 25 of the 26 detected individuals (7 of 8 adult males, all 16 adult females and 2 juveniles), against 20 of 26 for either sensor alone. Multimodal species classification reaches 96.0%, while for sex classification fusing the two sensors matters most: the combined RGB+thermal model is the most robust across environments and seasons. Automating the demographic classification turns a drone flight from a count into a repeatable reading of herd structure, so the sex ratios and age structure that managers already act on can be gathered as often as a survey can be flown.

This paper investigates the role of dynamic population sizes in evolutionary multi-objective optimization. Although such approaches are widely used in practice, their benefits remain poorly understood, and rigorous runtime analyses explaining when and why they help are still scarce. To address this, we introduce the bi-objective problem class CLIMB and analyze the runtime of GSEMO and the widely used NSGA-II on this problem. Our results show that allowing a dynamic population size for NSGA-II can lead to a moderate improvement, yielding a speedup of order $Ω(\sqrt{n}/\log n)$. In particular, we prove that GSEMO and NSGA-II-DYN, a version of NSGA-II with dynamic population sizes we propose in this paper, can find the Pareto front of CLIMB in expected $O(n \log n)$ fitness evaluations, whereas NSGA-II with a fixed population size requires $Ω(n^{1.5})$ fitness evaluations in expectation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first rigorous runtime analysis in multi-objective optimization demonstrating a super-constant speedup of GSEMO over NSGA-II. Our analysis builds on concepts from single-objective optimization, like the evolution of population diversity over time, and employs the well-known family-three method to prove the lower bound.

Large-scale calcium imaging has created an opportunity to build foundation-style models for neural population dynamics, but a central question remains unresolved: \textbf{whether a model pretrained on one collection of recordings can generalize to new datasets, experimental paradigms, and even species.} Existing approaches are often designed for specific tasks and evaluated on a single dataset, making it unclear whether their learned representations are reusable for new calcium trace datasets. To tackle this gap, we present \textbf{CAPT}, a \textbf{C}ontinuous \textbf{A}utoregressive \textbf{P}opulation \textbf{T}ransformer for calcium population dynamics. CAPT models continuous calcium traces directly through a continuous patch tokenization strategy and is trained autoregressively, enabling end-to-end pretraining and adaptation to diverse downstream tasks. We first pretrain CAPT on a large-scale mouse calcium imaging dataset and evaluate its transferability across independent mouse, larval zebrafish, and \textit{C. elegans} datasets collected by different laboratories. In these transfer settings, the pretrained backbone is frozen and only adaptation modules are updated. Across neural population forecasting and behavior decoding tasks, CAPT consistently outperforms specialized and general-purpose baselines. Alongside predictive performance, multimodal analyses using NeuroPAL annotations in \textit{C. elegans} datasets show that CAPT embeddings form a shared functional space across datasets and capture anatomical cell-identity-related structure. These results suggest that the continuous autoregressive modeling opens up possibilities for a simple route towards general-purpose neural foundation models for calcium imaging, which can generalize across datasets, experimental paradigms, and species. Code is available at https://github.com/TSuXinH/CAPT.

Reconstructing population dynamics is a central problem in the physical and data sciences. Often, the dynamics are modeled as a Wasserstein gradient flow (WGF): a curve of distributions driven by an energy functional. Though there are multiple mathematical characterizations of a WGF, the dominant algorithmic approach relies on the Jordan--Kinderlehrer--Otto (JKO) scheme. JKO-based methods are inflexible to time discretisation and require solving costly optimal transport problems. We take a residual approach, enforcing the continuity equations via a non-negative loss function whose minimum is the WGF. Combined with a data-fitting divergence, this gives a single global objective. This perspective unifies several existing methods and leads to a new particle-based method, stitching, that is simulation-free and robust to large gaps between observations. We demonstrate that the stitching method achieves state-of-the-art performance across trajectory inference benchmarks. For code see github.com/BasisResearch/wasserstein-residuals.

Recent breakthroughs in synaptic-resolution network connectomics have revealed that brain circuits feature fine-scale structural connectivity, such as pairs of correlated synaptic couplings known as second-order motifs. Large-scale recordings of neuronal activity in networks containing nonlinear neurons reveal macroscopic heterogeneous population dynamics throughout the brain. These findings rekindle the inquiry into this intriguing question: Can microscale synaptic structures contribute to macroscopic heterogeneous dynamics and computations in ways that canonical brain circuit models cannot? To answer this question, we create random RNNs with various cell types, nonlinear non-negative neural responses, and arbitrary marginal and second-order correlated synaptic statistics. We derive mean-field low-rank equations for P-population networks in which the pre- and postsynaptic neuronal population identities determine the synaptic and motif strengths. Our framework requires 2P latent dynamic variables with P variables describing mean population activity and P variables capturing within-population variability. Theoretical and simulational results demonstrate that chain motifs induce correlations in synaptic variability, enabling microscopic fluctuations to be integrated and influence mesoscopic mean population dynamics. We apply this framework to reverse engineer network connectivity that recapitulates the heterogeneous activity across the population in the mouse primary visual cortex. By bridging the gap between synaptic organization and nonlinear heterogeneous population dynamics, our results offer a principled approach and testable predictions regarding the relationship between fine-scale connectivity, heterogeneous dynamics, and functional computations.

Foundation-model research increasingly needs data about people: user state, personal histories, relationships, contact-like fields, documents, and longitudinal updates. Real user data is difficult to share, perturb, audit, or redistribute responsibly, while independently generated fake fields rarely preserve the cross-field and temporal consistency needed for controlled evaluation. We present PROFILEFOUNDRY, a deterministic generator and fixed reference release of 100,000 adult synthetic Person Objects across eight locales. Each object combines a typed current snapshot, household, family, and employer links, snapshot-aligned events, normalized relational views, and generation provenance. The release contains 709,228 events, 40,338 households, 52,491 employers, and 518,564 directed relationship edges. We report evidence in separate categories: selected population-marginal comparisons, per-object invariant checks, release-wide referential and temporal closure, and coincidence/provenance screens. PROFILEFOUNDRY is not a population-fidelity model, a rendered-text corpus, or a formal privacy mechanism. Instead, it is a responsible synthetic source layer for constructing downstream foundation-model evaluations involving memory, privacy, document understanding, record linkage, and agent state while keeping the synthetic person behind each artifact inspectable

Mobile cellular load forecasting is native to network resource optimization and delivery of services with reliability, latency and quality guarantees. The mainstream of machine learning research in the area is focused primarily on developing powerful learning structures for improved prediction accuracy. The data used for forecasting traditionally belong to the cellular domain and at most contain exogenous information about the surroundings of the base stations. We approach the prediction task from the perspective of data as a vital component of any data learning process. We hypothesize that substantial improvements could be achieved when the data inform on the processes that create the cellular load. Specifically, we propose to characterize the population dynamics -- the potential number of cellular traffic sources and their mobility -- in addition to employing historical time series of mobile data traffic. We validate our hypothesis for the rarely examined highway scenario. Comprehensive experiments show forecasting improvements on the order of $60\%$ due to the use of these data alone.

Mean field games efficiently approximate a very large population of strategic agents. While these games can aid the understanding of complex systems, their deployment in real-world settings is challenged by the specification of their parameters: mean field games (MFGs) often involve hidden preferences, constraints, and interactions that can rarely be theoretically derived or directly observed. To address this gap, we present a neural network-based framework for learning parametric, finite-state MFGs from observed population dynamics. To do so, we formulate the parameter calibration as an inverse problem and use implicit differentiation to backpropagate through the games' equilibrium. The resulting approach is fully differentiable and enables us to estimate flexible trajectory-wise parameter paths, including state- and time-dependent specifications without requiring observations of the individual agents' actions or rewards. We provide a proof for the exactness of the gradient computation in a discrete-time formulation. We validate our framework through numerical experiments across four systems of increasing complexity, ranging from synthetic linear-quadratic benchmarks to real-world urban mobility datasets.

Recent growth in compute power has made it increasingly feasible to use large-scale agent-based models to simulate complex adaptive systems. A central difficulty is that such models contain many local rules and parameters, where small changes can lead to runaway behaviour, population collapse, or saturation at artificial bounds. We study this problem in a continuous predator-prey system where sheep and wolves are active agents with local sensing, internal energy, and recurrent neural network-based controllers. We ask whether environmental and demographic parameters can be tuned so that the resulting population dynamics resemble classical Lotka-Volterra cycles. We optimise these parameters with a feature-based loss that rewards sustained oscillations, phase lag, bounded populations, and long-term persistence, first for random controllers and then for evolved controllers in a more naturalistic setting. The model is implemented in ABMax, a JAX-based agent-based modelling framework that enables efficient batched simulation on hardware accelerators.

Diffusion-based planning has achieved strong results in single-agent offline reinforcement learning, yet scaling to many-agent systems remains intractable due to the curse of dimensionality in the joint trajectory space. We introduce MF-Diffuser, a framework that lifts trajectory planning to the Wasserstein space of trajectory distributions, where the propagation of chaos ensures a small representative subset of agents captures the full population dynamics. Our approach features a value-weighted chaotic entropy objective that reconciles generative fidelity with return maximization, and a hierarchical coarse-to-fine strategy that progressively grows the agent population during denoising. We establish end-to-end suboptimality bounds with four interpretable terms, revealing that mean-field approximation error scales as $O(H^2/\sqrt{N})$ while offline distribution shift provably does not grow with population size $N$, and prove the generated policy is an approximate mean-field Nash equilibrium with explicit convergence guarantees. Experiments on three mean-field RL benchmarks -- spanning stage games, sequential dynamics, and adversarial team competition -- show MF-Diffuser achieves the best return in the majority of settings, with the largest gains on suboptimal offline data and at extreme scales ($N \geq 10^3$).

This work addresses the problem of learning the dynamics of high-dimensional probability densities over time using unlabeled samples, without assuming access to trajectory information. We introduce two-parameter flows that learn only sampling-time transports from a base distribution to each marginal and then extract a physics-time velocity by regressing on coupled synthetic trajectories. We prove that the resulting physics-time dynamics are unique and inherit regularity from the sampling-time transports. Because we can build on standard, well-developed conditional flow matching techniques for learning the base-to-marginal transports, our approach scales to high dimensions and avoids per-step optimal-transport couplings, while allowing admissible non-gradient dynamics that can naturally explain rotational or circulating physics phenomena.

Existing work on population dynamics inference often focuses on flows arising from vector fields that are the gradients of scalar potentials. Among all admissible flows that are compatible with the population dynamics, gradient flows are optimal in a specific sense: they minimize kinetic energy. The selection of fields based on different criteria corresponds to a gauge freedom when determining population dynamics, which we leverage in this work. We propose Non-Gradient Inference Flows (NGIF), an algorithm to infer non-gradient population dynamics using a weak formulation of the continuity equation. This allows us to parameterize general vector fields and choose other selection criteria beyond minimal kinetic energy. We demonstrate on a variety of low- and high-dimensional physics problems that this more general approach improves distributional accuracy over gradient-restricted baselines and better captures non-potential transport.

We introduce a model for neural scaling laws under sparse activations. In the model, test loss is often dominated by rare coordinates that are never observed in the training input. This mechanism induces a novel bottleneck absent from dense models. We derive the asymptotic population loss in both the underparameterized and overparameterized regimes, and show that the loss exhibits a double-descent peak near the interpolation threshold -- where the number of parameters is just sufficient to fit the training data -- resulting in a loss curve governed by two distinct scaling exponents -- one for the overparameterized regime and one for the underparameterized regime -- with a gap determined by the degree of sparsity. Additionally, we derive a compute-optimal frontier that favors increasing dataset size over model capacity under fixed compute budgets. We also analyze gradient-descent dynamics and identify a scaling law for the probability that fixed-step gradient descent becomes unstable. We further show that the sparsity-induced effect persists under nonlinear activations.

The population dynamics of molecules, cells, and organisms are governed by a number of unknown forces. In the last decade, population dynamics have predominantly been modeled with Wasserstein gradient flows. However, since gradient flows minimize free energy, they fail to capture important dynamical properties, such as periodicity. In this work, we propose a change in perspective by considering dynamics that minimize a population-level action under a damped Wasserstein Lagrangian. By deriving the corresponding Hamiltonian equations of motion, we formalize Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics, a structured class of second-order dynamics that encompasses classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and gradient flows. We then propose WLM as the first algorithm that learns these second-order dynamics from observed marginals, without specifying the Lagrangian. By directly learning the population mechanics, WLM can both forecast and interpolate unseen marginals, and outperforms existing gradient flow and flow matching methods across a wide range of dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.

Reliable subnational population estimates are essential for applications, yet remain difficult where censuses are sparse, outdated or spatially coarse. Existing population-mapping workflows rely on hand-built geospatial covariates, such as settlement extent, night-time lights, and environmental conditions, which must be assembled and harmonised across scales and geographies. Geospatial foundation models offer an alternative by learning reusable representations of place from more multifaceted and heterogeneous data sources. Here, we benchmark Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) embeddings against the harmonised geospatial covariates for subnational population estimation in Brazil, Nigeria and the United States. Under geographically structured validation, PDFM increased predictive fit by a median of 20.1% (IQR: 10.0-33.2%, across country-model comparisons) reduction in unexplained variance, and reduced Kullback-Leibler divergence by 23.2% (9.2-26.2%). However, these gains were uneven. PDFM was most advantageous where the geospatial covariates weakly characterised settlement context, such as larger and less-developed subnational areas. Moreover, PDFM performance was scale-coupled with embeddings providing less flexible transfer across spatial aggregations than geospatial covariates. These findings showed that geospatial foundation-model representations of place can improve population estimation in data poor settings, but their benefits break down predictably under spatial scale mismatch, revealing a fundamental limitation of current geospatial AI.

This paper proposes RCMAES, a novel variant of the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) for CEC benchmark optimization. RCMAES integrates a dimension-dependent nonlinear population-size reduction strategy with an adaptive restart mechanism within a pure CMA-ES framework. RCMAES is evaluated on three benchmark suites (CEC2017, CEC2020, and CEC2022) and compared with state-of-the-art DE algorithms as well as its closely related counterpart, BIPOP-aCMAES. Experimental results show that RCMAES achieves competitive and robust performance across all benchmarks.

We present a Spatially Embedded Evolutionary Algorithm where robot individuals exist in a physically simulated 2D environment, must navigate to encounter potential mates, and compete for survival under various spatially-aware selection pressures. Using HyperNEAT evolved neural controllers for ARIEL gecko-inspired quadrupeds in MuJoCo, we investigate how spatial structure fundamentally alters evolutionary dynamics. Our experiments show a modest 4.9% difference in peak fitness between proximity-based and random pairing possibly within stochastic variation while combining spatial parent selection with stochastic death selection produces unstable population dynamics. We discover a continuous phase transition in energy-based selection experiments, with critical zone count separating extinction-dominated and explosion-dominated regimes. Our density-dependent death selection mechanism achieves 97% completion rates but causes fitness decline, revealing a fundamental dilemma where decoupled mechanisms produce bistable dynamics, positively coupled mechanisms create counter-selection pressures, and only deterministic fitness-based selection maintains stability. These findings provide important constraints for future spatial EA design.

The Beagle framework, through GPU-based Genetic Programming, enables population dynamics previously unattainable (within practical time frames) by CPU-constrained Genetic Programming systems. This work explores how GPU-enabled population sizes impact the success of training for symbolic regression problems. Specifically, when using constant population sizes, we see benefits of using very narrow and deep searches (as narrow as 1000 individuals) for some problems, while other problems benefit from very broad and shallow searches (as broad as 10 million individuals). We also explore stepped population sizes that start with large populations and drop to small populations to balance the breadth and depth of search.