Probability Measures

Let $Y_s=\sqrt{s}X+Z$, where $Z$ is standard Gaussian and independent of the real random variable $X$. We prove that, under the square-exponential moment condition $\mathbb{E}e^{βX^2}<\infty$ for some $β>0$, the scalar minimum mean-square error $\operatorname{mmse}_X(s)$ is analytic at zero signal-to-noise ratio if and only if $X$ is Gaussian, with constant random variables included as degenerate Gaussians. The proof converts estimation in the Gaussian channel into a backward heat flow acting on the moment-generating function $M(z)=\mathbb{E}e^{zX}$. Under the stated tail condition, every non-Gaussian input forces $M$ to have a nonzero complex zero. We show that each zero cluster produces a finite singularity in its localized Borel transform at the action $ξ=z_0^2/2$. After removing the action scale, the Borel coefficients have a nonzero $n^{-1/2}$ prefactor for a simple zero. A zero of multiplicity $m\geq 2$ splits according to the roots of a Hermite polynomial and instead contributes a prefactor $n^{-m/2}e^{r_m\sqrt{2n}}$. A finite-disc localization and relative-cycle continuation argument then show that at least one such singularity survives in the full Borel transform. Thus, for every non-Gaussian input in the stated class, the formal zero-SNR expansion is Gevrey-1 but divergent. Rational-MMSE rigidity and the analogous analyticity criterion for mutual information follow as corollaries.

We introduce an amortized neural sampler that combines operator learning with flow methods for sampling. It maps SDE coefficient functions to pushforwards from a reference measure to the invariant measures, enabling efficient sampling across families of stochastic differential equations. Our framework shifts traditional sampling cost to an initial training phase, after which new SDE instances require only one encoder pass and a few ODE solver steps, independent of mixing time. To handle problems in high dimensions, we use Lagrangian trajectory sensors for the coefficient functions and cross attention in the architecture. We also theoretically establish the expressivity and resolution invariance of our framework. Experiments on 1D and 2D SDE families show competitive accuracy with substantial speedups over MCMC in regimes with slow mixing, transfer across sensor counts, and demonstration results on a 64D interacting particle SDE where traditional grid approaches are infeasible.

The fundamental theorem of statistical learning states that, under suitable measurability assumptions, finite Vapnik--Chervonenkis (VC) dimension guarantees that every proper consistent learning rule is probably approximately correct (PAC). Blumer, Ehrenfeucht, Haussler, and Warmuth showed, assuming the Continuum Hypothesis, that the "well-behavedness" condition of the concept class cannot be omitted: they constructed a concept class of Borel sets of VC dimension one admitting a consistent learning rule that is not PAC. We show that the Continuum Hypothesis is unnecessary. Working in Zermelo--Fraenkel set theory with the Axiom of Choice (ZFC) alone, we construct a concept class of Borel sets on $[0,1]$ of VC dimension one and a proper consistent learning rule that is not PAC. More precisely, for a suitable Borel probability measure and target concept, the rule has true risk one at every sample size on a set of samples of outer probability one. Consequently, finite VC dimension and Borel measurability of the individual concepts do not suffice to guarantee that every proper consistent learning rule is PAC. The result shows, with no need of extra set-theoretical assumptions, that the additional regularity assumption in the fundamental theorem cannot in general be omitted.

We present the mathematical foundations of linear independent component analysis (ICA) models based on standard literature in a self-contained note. It is aimed at readers with a background in measure-theoretic probability theory. We first develop the theory of the characteristic functions of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$, including their analyticity and the way in which they determine and characterise the distributions. We then focus on several identifiability results of ICA models with successively strengthened assumptions on the sources: from merely non-constant, to non-Gaussian, to Gaussian-free independent sources. Under the strictest assumptions, we show that the independent sources are identifiable up to translation, permutation, scales and signs, and this even in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we present the online equivariant gradient descent ICA algorithm for recovering the independent sources from data, in the standard complete noiseless non-Gaussian ICA setting.

A novel advective Fisher-Rao metric is introduced for optimization tasks on paths of probability measures governed by the continuity equation. This metric is shown to lead to optimal descent directions. It is then shown that this metric arises naturally from three different perspectives: As the rescaled zero-noise limit of the Fisher-Rao metric on path measures, as the expected value of the second variation of the Freidlin--Wentzell large deviation rate functional, and as the Hessian of the Benamou--Brenier action functional from dynamic optimal transport. We supplement this geometric construction with computational experiments. Here, we demonstrate empirically that the advective Fisher-Rao metric yields the desired optimal fitting of probability densities, whereas the Gauss--Newton method yields optimal fitting of velocity fields.

The quantitative analysis of 3D neuronal morphologies requires capturing both graph topology and spatial geometry. Current message-passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are bounded by the 1-Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-WL) test, limiting their ability to capture cycles induced by spatial proximities. To address this, we propose a training-free geometric prior based on tropical algebraic geometry. We apply the recently established tropical Abel-Jacobi transform and polarization distances to machine learning on tree-structured data. We introduce a structural transformation pipeline, comprising cycle space augmentation and quotient space construction, to convert spatial trees into cyclic metric graphs suitable for embedding into the Tropical Jacobian. Computing exact tropical polarization distances requires solving the NP-Hard Closest Vector Problem (CVP) on integer lattices. Instead of relying on explicit approximations with quantization errors (e.g., Babai's rounding), we adopt a continuous relaxation on the universal cover of the Albanese torus. We show that the discrete Arakelov-Green measure, computed in closed form via the graph Laplacian's generalized inverse, decomposes exactly into the intrinsic path metric minus the unquantized polarization distance on this cover, avoiding integer lattice searches. This metric yields two descriptors: eigenvectors provide node-level structural coordinates, and the permutation-invariant eigenvalue spectrum provides a graph-level signature. On the BREC benchmark, the eigenvector formulation demonstrates expressivity beyond the 1-WL limit. On 3D morphology datasets (ACT-4, JML-4, BIL-6), the spectrum seamlessly integrates into standard architectures (VAEs, GNNs, Tree-LSTMs) without additional trainable parameters, outperforming explicit lattice approximations and improving classification accuracy over existing spatial models.

For a Markov kernel $T$ with an invariant probability measure $π$, we give a self-contained proof of the Markov chain convergence theorem via a criterion called asymptotic equivalence with the target. It assumes two parts about the Lebesgue decompositions of $T^{n}_{x}$ and $π$ for every starting point $x$: 1.) asymptotic absolute continuity: the singular mass sing$(T^{n}_{x}\midπ)$ tends to $0$; 2.) asymptotic domination of the target: the singular mass sing$(π\mid T^{n}_{x})$ tends to $0$, as $n \to \infty$. This criterion, on countably generated measurable spaces, is both sufficient and necessary for the Markov chain convergence. A density version of this criterion is verified on general measurable spaces in three cases: (i) $T$ has a positive transition density wrt $π$; (ii) $T$ consists of an absolutely continuous part with positive transition density together with an atom at the starting point, which covers the Metropolis--Hastings algorithm; (iii) the transition density is positive only after a finite number of steps that may depend on the starting point $x$. To demonstrate our general criterion, we investigate the Gibbs sampler with random scan and the parallel tempering algorithm. Furthermore, we show that in all mentioned settings Birkhoff's ergodic theorem applies, so as to obtain the strong law of large numbers. Throughout this paper, neither irreducibility, nor aperiodicity, nor recurrence, nor couplings, nor splitting constructions, nor small sets are used. In most results, the state space is a general measurable space, which carries no structure beyond a $σ$-algebra. Countable generation is only assumed where the density-free form of the criterion is stated. None of the theorems proved here is new; what is offered is a short route to a single, widely applicable Markov chain convergence criterion, which is both sufficient and necessary.

Optimization over probability measures has become an increasingly important paradigm in modern machine learning, scientific computing, and uncertainty quantification. Motivated by Nesterov's accelerated gradient method in Euclidean space, we develop Heavy-ball and Nesterov acceleration methods over the probability measure space $\mathcal{P}_2$ and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees that match their Euclidean counterparts. In particular, we derive convergence rates with respect to both the number of iterations and the number of particles used to represent the underlying probability distributions. Extending accelerated optimization from Euclidean space to probability measures is challenging. The natural notion of momentum requires concepts such as tangent bundles of the set of probability space and they are hard to operate numerically. To overcome these difficulties, we introduce two complementary lifting procedures. The first lifts probability measures to phase space through a Hamiltonian formulation, introducing momentum variables into the dynamics. The second lifts probability measures to a common Hilbert space, restoring the linear structure required for convergence analysis while simultaneously yielding executable particle dynamics. Together, these two complementary lifting procedures provide a systematic methodology for designing, analyzing, and implementing momentum-based accelerated optimization methods over probability measure spaces.

Let $X = (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$ be a random vector from any Borel probability law on $\mathbb{R}_+^n$. We revisit the problem of deriving a lower confidence bound (LCB) on a scalar parameter of that law. We recast classical work, beginning with Buehler, in purely probabilistic terms to form a more accessible and extensible framework. We then specialize the framework to the case where the components of $X$ are independent. In this context, we prove that Gaffke's bound is Buehler optimal for the order that it induces with respect to the maximum marginal mean parameter: $max_{i \in [n]} E_Q[X_i]$, which reduces to the common mean when the $X_i$ are independent and identically distributed. That is to say, no other valid LCB that orders samples in the same way as Gaffke's bound can improve on it with respect to this parameter.

We study the long-term behavior of the Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU) algorithm in game settings where learning dynamics frequently fail to converge to Nash equilibria and instead exhibit Li-Yorke chaos. While such chaos precludes the prediction of specific long-term strategy profiles, it does not imply a lack of statistical structure. We demonstrate that natural invariant measures - a fundamental concept from ergodic theory - provide the rigorous framework necessary to find order within this chaos. Focusing on a two-strategy congestion game, we prove that these measures allow for a comprehensive statistical characterization of the dynamics. Crucially, we show that this framework extends beyond simple strategy frequencies to \emph{general observables}, enabling the precise calculation of long-term time averages for broad classes of economic metrics - including payoffs, social cost, and regret - despite chaos. Our results reveal that this simple learning algorithm captures the full spectrum of behaviors found in one-dimensional dynamical systems, from unique or multiple absolutely continuous invariant measures to complex periodic attractors as well as coexisting chaotic and stable (periodic) behaviors. By bridging game theory and dynamical systems, we show that statistical predictability is attainable even in the absence of pointwise convergence.

We give mathematically self-contained formulations, in the complex-time (kime) representation, of three open problems from the foundations of classical mechanics: (I) the extension of the classical entropic uncertainty principle to non-canonical variables and to multiple degrees of freedom; (II) the characterization of coordinate-invariant measures and entropies, i.e., the question of why continuous physical quantities must be paired for an invariant entropy to exist; and (III) the construction of a classical relativistic directional degree of freedom (a classical analogue of a spin-1/2 system). Throughout, the kime phase is interpreted {statistically as a latent circular random variable whose law Φmodels the intrinsic trial-to-trial variability of repeated, identically controlled experiments indexed by the kime magnitude. The mathematical bridge is an exact symplectic identification of the kime cone with the action-angle chart of a one-degree-of-freedom phase space, under which the kime measure is the Liouville measure and the phase law becomes the angular conditional of a Liouville density. Specifically, we (i) prove a sharp entropic uncertainty relation on the kime cylinder whose extremal family is von Mises x Gaussian, together with a sharp circular Fisher-information inequality saturated exactly by von Mises laws; (ii) prove an exact non-canonical uncertainty relation in which the correction term is the geometric mean of the Poisson bracket, clarifying the conjectured role of the expected bracket; (iii) prove aggregate multi-degree-of-freedom bounds via the Williamson normal form and Fischer's inequality, and isolate the per-degree-of-freedom refinement as a precise open problem of symplectic Schur-Horn type; (iv) prove that diffusion of the kime phase produces monotone entropy growth with the equipartitioned (Haar-uniform) phase law.

We present a complete formal proof that transformer architectures, when their internal update mechanisms satisfy a Bayes joint-distribution condition, implement exact Bayesian posterior inference. Working within the measure-theoretic kernel framework, we define a hierarchy of abstractions -- from the core Bayesian transformer, through semantic transformers with explicit update kernels, to full transformer blocks with QKV/attention/residual/MLP pipelines, and finally multilayer stacks -- and prove at each level that the Bayes joint semantics implies the update kernel equals the posterior almost everywhere. For the block-level architecture, we derive the explicit Bayes formula through Radon-Nikodym differentiation and prove its normalization. We additionally prove that the softmax attention mechanism induces a valid probability distribution over keys, establishing the bridge between the abstract kernel framework and concrete attention implementations. The framework makes no architectural assumptions beyond the Markov kernel structure and exposes explicit conditions under which a transformer block is provably Bayesian. In essence, when this joint distribution condition is satisfied, the forward computation of a Transformer is formally equivalent to a rigorous Bayesian posterior update.

Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure. However, in practice, the available evidence often pins the measure down only to a set. Consequently, under a set of probability measures, VOI requires different formulations. First, we explicate a rule-specific VOI that fixes a decision rule for acting under imprecision (such as Gamma-maximin) and measures what the information is worth to a decision maker who uses that rule. Second, we derive a fixed-measure envelope that evaluates the classical VOI functional over all admissible precise measures. We formalize this distinction and explicate its consequences for the expected perfect, partial, and sample information. The expected value of perfect information is concave over the credal set. Hence, when the set is generated by finitely many measures, its lower envelope endpoint is obtained exactly from the generators, while its upper endpoint may be interior and is computed by a finite linear program. The Gamma-maximin value, in contrast, can exceed the entire envelope, so a rule-specific value is not recovered from the envelope's endpoints. A continuity bound limits how much the VOI can change as the measure varies, and we identify when the partial- and sample-information endpoints can still be obtained from the generators. Because the single-measure VOI must itself be estimated, the procedure we give combines standard estimators for it with a search over the credal set. By using a worked decision problem, we show how the two quantities separate conclusions that hold across every admissible measure from conclusions that depend on one unidentified choice of measure.

This paper is concerned with learning principal variations of random probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^m$ under the Wasserstein geometry. We introduce a new dynamical formulation to interpret the log-PCA, a linearized principal geodesic analysis, as a variational approach. Our differentiable version, termed as the Wasserstein Tangential PCA (WT-PCA), captures the local principal modes of geodesic variations of a (weighted) probability measure on the Wasserstein space via its covariance operator at barycenter. Based on the dynamical perspective and leveraging parallel transport structure of the optimal transport problems, we derive a general statistical convergence rate of the empirical WT-PCA when estimated from data in terms of the 2-Wasserstein distance between the population and empirical barycenter reference measures.

We formulate data propagation through the Transformer, the machine learning architecture powering large language models, as a nonlinear control system on the space of probability measures. For the mean-field Transformer model with self-attention and affine feed-forward layers, we prove that Gaussian distributions remain exactly Gaussian along the induced flow. This invariance reduces the infinite-dimensional measure dynamics to a finite-dimensional bilinear control system governing the evolution of the mean and covariance, reformulates the expressive capacity of Transformers as a reachability problem for prescribed Gaussian moments, and reveals a novel connection with Riccati-type equations from classical filtering and control. For time-varying controls, we prove exact finite-time reachability of any target Gaussian distribution whose covariance matrix has the same rank as the initial one, this rank constraint being an intrinsic invariant of the dynamics. For time-invariant parameters, we derive explicit spectral conditions leading either to asymptotic stability toward positive-definite equilibria or to finite-time blow-up of the covariance. Numerical experiments complement the theory by showing that practical Transformers with Gaussian inputs remain close to moment-matched Gaussian distributions through early and intermediate layers, while Transformers with prescribed attention matrices reproduce the predicted covariance regimes: bounded evolution in stabilizing configurations and blow-up in destabilizing ones.

Over the centuries, probability theory has grown from the calculus of games of chance into a central framework for reasoning under uncertainty. This article interprets that evolution not merely as a mathematical history, but as a transformation of rationality itself. From Pascal and Fermat's combinatorial symmetry to the inductive logic of Bayes and Laplace, from Poisson's statistics of events to Kolmogorov's axiomatic formalization, probability progressively incorporated uncertainty, time, and coherence into scientific judgment. This trajectory reaches a mature epistemological form in modern Bayesian inference, especially in Tarantola's view of probability as a logic of information, where prior knowledge and data are combined coherently. Yet this framework also exposes a limit: probability quantifies uncertainty about well-defined propositions, but does not by itself formalize the vagueness of the concepts used to describe them. The article therefore examines how rationality extends beyond probability. Fuzzy logic is presented as a rigorous language for graded meaning and qualitative judgment, while deep learning is analyzed as a distinct, powerful mode of prediction based on geometric interpolation and optimization rather than explicit inference. By situating probability, fuzzy logic, and deep learning in a common historical and epistemological perspective, the article clarifies their roles and limits. It argues that contemporary scientific rationality cannot be reduced to data-driven performance alone, but requires the explicit articulation of uncertainty, vagueness, and inference.

The Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) codelength, or stochastic complexity, represents a principled criterion for universal coding. While recent coarea-based formulations provided a calculation method for smooth models, this framework collapses for the non-smooth estimators ubiquitous in modern machine learning (e.g., Lasso, Sparse SVMs). In this work, we provide a rigorous framework for computing the NML for regular path-differentiable Lipschitz (PDL) estimators. By applying classical geometric measure theory and bridging the coarea formula with conservative Jacobians, we prove that the stochastic complexity for non-smooth models is well-posed and theoretically consistent with the outputs of modern Automatic Differentiation. To compute this quantity exactly, we introduce the Propose-and-Project Metropolis-Hastings (PDL-PPMH) sampler, a geometric MCMC algorithm capable of traversing the non-differentiable level sets of the maximum likelihood estimator. We theoretically justify its components, including a stochastic tangent space proposal and a provably convergent non-smooth projection solver. We demonstrate the method's robustness by sampling from a high-dimensional Lasso posterior ($P=2000$), while simultaneously quantifying the computational scaling that governs the trade-off between exactness and mixing time. Crucially, we empirically demonstrate that our exact NML criterion provides a highly data-efficient alternative to cross-validation, achieving statistically indistinguishable predictive optima without requiring data splitting. Altogether, our work paves the way for the theoretical analysis of the NML codelength for regular non-smooth models.

Despite the remarkable empirical success of generative models, the available theory on their statistical accuracy in scientific computing remains largely pessimistic. This paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the regularity of transport maps and the generalization properties of one-step Wasserstein-guided generative models for PDE-induced probability measures. We consider normalized target densities associated with linear elliptic and parabolic equations on bounded domains, as well as diffusion and Fokker--Planck equations on the torus. Under standard structural assumptions, we prove that these target measures satisfy doubling conditions. By combining this fact with regularity theory for optimal transport between doubling measures, we show that the optimal transport map from a uniform source measure to the target measure is Hölder continuous. This regularity yields an approximation-theoretic justification for one-step generative models that learn PDE-induced distributions via a single pushforward map. As a representative instance, we study DeepParticle and derive excess-risk bounds characterizing the discrepancy between the learned map and the population-optimal map. We also establish a robustness estimate under target shift and illustrate the theory with experiments which support the derived rates.

While empirical scaling laws for LLM reasoning are well-documented, the theoretical mechanisms governing out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization remain elusive. We formalize reasoning via optimal transport, projecting discrete trajectories into a continuous metric space to quantify domain shifts using the Wasserstein-1 distance. Invoking Kantorovich duality, we bound OOD generalization via architectural Lipschitz continuity and functional approximation limits. This exposes two primary constraints. First, position-dependent attention (e.g., Absolute Positional Encoding) fails to preserve shift invariance, yielding an $Ω(1)$ Lipschitz constant and expected risk, whereas shift-invariant mechanisms (e.g., Rotary Embeddings) preserve equivariance and bound the error. Second, by mapping sequential backtracking to a Dyck-$k$ language, we establish a strict circuit depth lower bound for $\text{TC}^0$ Transformers. Scaling physical layer depth is necessary to avert representation collapse -- a constraint that scaling representation width cannot bypass due to irreducible approximation bounds in Barron spaces. Evaluations across 54 Transformer configurations on combinatorial search corroborate these bounds, demonstrating that generalization risk degrades monotonically with the Wasserstein domain shift.

We study the approximation of nonlinear operators between function spaces by transformers. Our approach is to lift functions to measures supported on their graphs and leverage a recently introduced measure-theoretic view of transformers. A function $h$ is represented by its graph measure $γ_h$, with finite tokens $\{(x_j,h(x_j))\}_{j=1}^N$ being its empirical approximations. We show that this framework elegantly models discretization refinement via convergence of measures and provides a natural setting for operator learning. Within this framework, we introduce function graph transformers, a graph-preserving subclass of measure-theoretic transformers that maps graph measures to graph measures, which is to say that outputs remain single-valued functions. Crucially, this additional structure does not reduce generality: we prove that the resulting graph-preserving maps can be approximated by finite compositions of standard softmax self-attention layers and pointwise MLPs, yielding universal approximation results for broad classes of nonlinear operators. Unlike existing theoretical approaches to operator learning with transformers, the measure-theoretic framework also accommodates regularized negative-order Sobolev inputs for which discretization invariance is particularly challenging, as well as query points on different output domains. Overall, function graph transformers provide a continuum viewpoint and mathematical toolkit for transformer-based operator learning, clarifying the roles of positional encodings, graph structure, regularization, and ensuring consistency across discretizations.

Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable $X$ given a random variable $Y$. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This problem has traditionally been addressed in machine learning by directly learning the conditional distribution of a fixed joint distribution. This paper introduces a novel perspective: we propose to solve the conditioning problem by identifying a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, thus amortizing over joint-conditional pairs. We establish that the conditioning operator can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy by neural operators. Our proof relies on new results establishing continuity of the conditioning operator over suitable classes of densities. Finally, we learn the conditioning map for a class of Gaussian mixtures using neural operators, illustrating the promise of our framework. This work provides the theoretical underpinnings for general-purpose, amortized methods for probabilistic conditioning, such as foundation models for Bayesian inference.

We survey continuous-time generative modeling methods based on transporting a simple reference distribution to a data distribution via stochastic or deterministic dynamics. We present a unified framework in which diffusion models, score-based generative models, and flow matching are instances of learning a time-dependent vector field that induces a family of marginals $(ρ_t)_{t \in [0,1]}$ governed by continuity and Fokker-Planck equations. Such a unified theory is timely because these methods are converging methodologically, yet fragmented notation and competing derivations continue to obscure their shared structure and the practical tradeoffs governing sampling, stability, and computation. Within this framework, we (i) derive reverse-time sampling for diffusion and score-based models as controlled stochastic dynamics, (ii) show that the probability flow ODE yields identical marginals and connects diffusion to likelihood-based normalizing flows, and (iii) interpret flow matching as direct regression of the velocity field under a chosen interpolation, clarifying when it coincides with or differs from score-based training. We compare objectives, sampling schemes, and discretization errors under unified notation, discuss connections to Schrodinger bridges and entropic optimal transport, and summarize theoretical guarantees and open problems on approximation, stability, and scalability.

Recent work revisiting measurability in the fundamental theorem of statistical learning imposes Borel measurability of ghost-gap suprema. We show that, at the one-sided ghost-gap interface actually used by the standard symmetrization proof, this requirement is stronger than necessary. For any Borel-parameterized concept class on a Polish domain, the bad event "there exists a hypothesis whose ghost empirical error exceeds its training empirical error by at least ε/2" is analytic. By Choquet capacitability, it is therefore measurable in the completion of every finite Borel measure. We then construct a concept class whose bad event is null-measurable but not Borel, giving a strict separation from the Borel supremum condition. Finally, we prove closure under patching, fixed and countable interpolation, and fiber-product amalgamation, showing that the weaker regularity level is stable under natural concept-class constructors. In the realizable setting, where targets belong to the class and are measurable, these results weaken the measurability hypothesis needed by the symmetrization route from finite VC dimension to PAC learnability. The main results and the descriptive-set-theoretic infrastructure used by them are formalized in Lean 4.

A common approach to perform PCA on probability measures is to embed them into a Hilbert space where standard functional PCA techniques apply. While convergence rates for estimating the embedding of a single measure from $m$ samples are well understood, the literature has not addressed the setting involving multiple measures. In this paper, we study PCA in a double asymptotic regime where $n$ probability measures are observed, each through $m$ samples. We derive convergence rates of the form $n^{-1/2} + m^{-α}$ for the empirical covariance operator and the PCA excess risk, where $α>0$ depends on the chosen embedding. This characterizes the relationship between the number $n$ of measures and the number $m$ of samples per measure, revealing a sparse (small $m$) to dense (large $m$) transition in the convergence behavior. Moreover, we prove that the dense-regime rate is minimax optimal for the empirical covariance error. Our numerical experiments validate these theoretical rates and demonstrate that appropriate subsampling preserves PCA accuracy while reducing computational cost.

This monograph studies the relations between two approaches using positive definite kernels: probabilistic methods using Gaussian processes, and non-probabilistic methods using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). They are widely studied and used in machine learning, statistics, and numerical analysis. We study connections and equivalences for fundamental topics such as regression, interpolation, numerical integration, distributional discrepancies, and statistical dependence, as well as sample path properties of Gaussian processes. A unifying perspective for these equivalences is established, based on the equivalence between the Gaussian Hilbert space and the RKHS. The monograph serves as a basis to bridge many other methods based on Gaussian processes and reproducing kernels, which are developed in parallel by the two research communities.

We study distributionally robust optimization (DRO) for robust inference when the worst-case distribution is continuous, leading to significant computational challenges due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the optimization problem. Unlike traditional discrete DRO approaches, which often suffer from scalability issues, limited generalization, and costly worst-case inference, our framework exploits Brenier's theorem to characterize the least favorable distribution as the pushforward of a transport map from a continuous reference measure. This characterization motivates our study of the minimax problem in Wasserstein space. We propose an iterative algorithmic framework with multiple variants and establish global convergence guarantees under mild assumptions, deriving complexity bounds in terms of subgradient evaluations and inexact Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto updates. Numerical results with neural network-based transport maps demonstrate that the proposed method enables both stable training of robust classifiers and effective worst-case inference for classification tasks.

We study the approximation of probability measures in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance by structured classes of approximators, motivated by applications in imaging, machine learning, and physical measurement under sensor constraints. We obtain three sets of results. First, for measures with densities bounded away from zero on a bounded Lipschitz domain $Ω$, we prove that any approximation scheme for functions in $\mathrm{L}_p(Ω)$ transfers, with linear rate, to a corresponding approximation scheme for measures in $\mathrm{W}_p(Ω)$. The argument applies a theorem of Bogovskii on regularity of solutions to the continuity equation in the Benamou-Brenier formulation of optimal transport. We exhibit concrete approximation schemes (polynomials, shift-invariant spaces, cardinal interpolation with radial basis functions, kernel density estimators, and piecewise approximations on nonuniform Voronoi partitions) that fit the framework. As a matter of independent interest, we prove a negative Sobolev lower bound that generalizes existing bounds from $p=2$ to all $p\in(1,\infty)$. We also consider deterministic bounds for discrete approximations to arbitrary measures in terms of the mesh norm of a quasi-uniform set of points. We specialize these bounds to show that compactly supported measures admit a deterministic $N$-term approximation $μ_N$ such that $\mathrm{W}_p(μ,μ_N) = O(N^{-\frac{1}{d}})$ for all $d\geq 1$, which matches the asymptotic optimal quantizer rate. We also extend these results to non-compactly supported measures with appropriate tail decay.