Real-Time Bidding

Moving ML-mediated decision making onto privacy-preserving clients decentralises the economic decision along with the inference. Shared budget constraints then depend on information that cannot be globally current, creating an information-structure failure that conventional pacing is not designed to solve. We study this information misalignment in an auction-logic-faithful on-device simulation with 36 campaigns and 50 devices. Accounting is in dimensionless integer score units; no currency semantics are claimed. Across 30 paired demand paths, proportional Even pacing overspends 17.77% after one tick of staleness and 1,669.31% after 50 ticks under the original 20-times budget pressure. The effect does not depend on that severe a budget: at two-times pressure, 50-tick overspend remains 106.95%. A visible-budget no-sale guard makes zero-lag compliance exact at this score-unit granularity, yet leaves 11.88% overspend at one tick because other devices' debits remain invisible. A declared bursty, heterogeneous-device sweep retains a strictly increasing mean lag curve. We derive a finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps and find positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell. A second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units: 98.23% of rival auctions at one tick admit a profitable deviation. An executable implementation-level counterexample isolates the runner-up's multiplier in the winner's price. Critical-base-bid payment is per-auction DSIC conditional on current multipliers, but does not establish dynamic truthfulness and does not repair base-value ranking disagreement.

In online A/B tests for real-time bidding (RTB), control and treatment models are typically trained on a shared serving log that includes data generated by the counterpart model. This shared-log training biases each model's training data through two channels: the counterpart model may have selected a different ad from the ad-candidate pool (ad-ranking disagreement) and may have bid a different price (bid-pricing disagreement), potentially distorting the A/B test outcome. Log-splitting eliminates the bias but sacrifices training data; log-sharing retains all data but leaves the bias unaddressed. We formalize the Bid-Aware Filter Family (BAFF), a class of (k,l)-parameterized hard filters that controls tolerance to each channel independently, providing a structured search space between these two extremes. We further propose a three-stage online measurement protocol that enables evaluating data-sharing strategies by their deviation from an interference-free reference model in production. In offline simulation, a (k,l) sweep surfaces operating points with smaller deviation from the interference-free reference model than both log-sharing and log-splitting. In a live RTB deployment on a demand-side platform (DSP), filter-based variants preserve the reference model's business metrics (e.g., CPC, CTR) more closely than both baselines. The best operating point is setting-dependent, underscoring the practical value of the search space itself.

Real-time bidding (RTB) ad exchanges typically forward nearly all incoming requests to demand-side platforms (DSPs), even though only a small fraction receive bids. This over-distribution weakens auction outcomes: DSPs throttle participation under compute and budget constraints, reducing the effective use of limited bidding capacity. We present a competition-aware request dispatch framework that uses distributional bid prediction and probabilistic forwarding to decide whether each request should be sent to each DSP. The system adapts per-DSP thresholds over time through lightweight policy optimization to track non-stationary market conditions. We evaluate the framework through four sequential online experiments on a production platform serving over 20 billion daily requests. A full multi-DSP deployment reduces DSP request volume under the policy by 34.2% while increasing net revenue by 4.6% (p<0.001) in a recent 14-day window after an initial DSP adaptation period. Further analysis highlights strong heterogeneity across traffic segments and reveals that aggregate metrics can be misleading. Segment-level and per-DSP analyses suggest that the policy surfaces comparative advantages among DSPs, improving monetized outcomes without increasing overall request volume.

User foundation models have demonstrated strong results in e-commerce and social recommendation, but most industrial deployments assume environments where user identity is stable and persistent. Open-web real-time bidding (RTB) operates on a structurally different data distribution: user identity is fragmented and non-persistent across browsing sessions, and the availability of browsing history depends on user privacy choices. Consequently, a significant portion of traffic carries no historical data, and available records often consist of relatively short, disjointed sessions. As a result, historical signals in this domain are typically represented as aggregated counters and recency buckets, leaving the sequential structure unexploited. To address this limitation, we present a user foundation model that applies self-supervised learning on user browsing histories and show that the learned representation improves multiple downstream production tasks, demonstrating the viability of this approach on the open web. We pre-train a Transformer encoder with masked language modeling and a sequence-level contrastive objective, then fine-tune it on the click prediction task. We optimize the encoder's pre-training pipeline with an LLM-in-the-loop search over a curated catalog of reviewable, code-level edits (lifters), instantiating the LLM-as-optimizer paradigm in an industrial setting. The same encoder representation yields +1.197% RIG on the production bid win-rate model and +1.354% RIG on the production CTR ranker; a 7-day live A/B test confirms +2.13% CTR, -1.13% eCPC (80% CI excluding zero on both metrics).

Real-time bidding is central to computational advertising, comprising three elements: Supply Side Platform (SSP) selling ad impressions, Demand Side Platform (DSP) bidding for advertisers, and Ad Exchange conducting auctions between them. Traditional auto-bidding algorithms focus solely on the DSP side, maximizing advertiser conversions by adjusting bids against competitors. However, current big ad platforms, such as social media and e-commerce companies, now integrate SSP, DSP, and Ad Exchange functions internally. From such ad platforms' perspective, the goal of the auto-bidding algorithms is not only to maximize the advertisers' conversions, but also the total revenue of the platform. Given the lack of platform-centric evaluation frameworks and the pressing need to advance auto-bidding research, we propose PlatformBid - the first comprehensive benchmark designed from a unified ad platform's perspective. To accurately reflect the real-world auto-bidding scenarios, we define three representative settings: (1) homogeneous competition with identical algorithms across advertisers, (2) heterogeneous competition with diverse algorithmic strategies, and (3) promotional competition where some advertisers surge budgets for boosting sales during promotional events like Black Friday. We systematically evaluate a broad spectrum of existing auto-bidding methods across these settings, encompassing classical control methods, RL-based methods, and recent generative methods. Besides these methods, we further propose a novel auto-bidding method based on flow-matching, termed BidFlow, which leverages the flow-matching method's expressive policy representation to effectively handle dynamic competitive environments. Online experiments on Kuaishou further show a +0.68% improvement in target cost, providing deployment evidence for the offline-online consistency of PlatformBid.

A truckload carrier must accept or reject each load tender within seconds. The decision depends on fleet state, hours-of-service (HOS) clocks, and appointment windows. We model this as a weakly coupled dynamic program in which the resources relocate and carry clocks: serving a request moves the truck to a new market and depletes its clocks, and whether a truck can serve a request depends on its state. Occupancy-based reusable-resource models do not cover this setting. We build a real-time dual-price policy from the same Lagrangian relaxation that gives the problem's upper bound. Policy and bound come from one object, so every run reports a certified optimality gap. We prove three things. First, the certificate is valid for any duals, any discretization, and any surrogate quality. Second, the policy's same-time spatial-gradient rule is exactly fluid complementary slackness, and the policy is asymptotically optimal in the subcritical fluid regime; the fitted prices are also portable across sample paths, by linear-programming basis stability. Third, certificates have limits: per-resource Lagrangian slack can stay bounded away from zero at every fleet size. We exhibit a three-truck kernel with an exact rational certificate and a replication lemma. On a public closed-loop benchmark with thirty paired seeds, the policy -- which needs no rollout labels, only one offline dual solve -- beats a rollout-trained surrogate on two of three scenarios (tight: +2.0 pp, 95% CI [+0.5, +3.6], Wilcoxon p = 0.023; mild: +3.5 pp, CI [+2.4, +4.5]) and ties the third. It decides in 0.04-0.09 ms, three orders of magnitude faster than the Monte Carlo rollout teacher. Its certificates are stable across ten bounded instances per scenario, at 57-64% of optimal, within 3-6 points of what the 1000x-slower teacher certifies.

Online truckload bid acceptance is a closed-loop stochastic decision problem in which a carrier or broker must, in real time, accept or reject a tendered load subject to operational feasibility, fleet repositioning costs, and opportunity cost against future demand. Public, reproducible benchmarks for this problem are scarce: existing routing benchmarks are static, while dynamic-fleet studies typically rely on private operator data. We introduce FreightBidBench, a public-calibrated, dependency-free, closed-loop benchmark in which feasibility (pickup reach, appointment windows, simplified hours-of-service, stochastic yard delays) and economics (service-failure penalty, terminal fleet value, daily price-premium window) are explicit, versioned, and reproducible from public Freight Analysis Framework and U.S. Department of Agriculture truck rate data. We develop two full-horizon hindsight ceilings: a simple LP style relaxation and a tighter Lagrangian-per-truck information relaxation that retains per-truck hours-of-service and sequencing structure and is 20.7% tighter than the LP relaxation on a tight-capacity scenario and 39.3% tighter on a scarce-capacity scenario. We introduce a parametric surrogate-rollout cascade with boundary-band and scarcity-pressure escalation triggers. On ten-seed tight and scarce scenarios, the best simple policy retains 91.0% and 86.5% of rollout profit and the standard-library surrogate 94.2% and 89.3%; a cascade at a single escalation band recovers roughly 98% on both at 40-56% of rollout's mean decision latency, and on the tight scenario is statistically indistinguishable from the rollout teacher (paired-bootstrap 95% CI on the profit delta spans zero).

Auto-bidding is a core component of real-time advertising systems, where decisions must optimize long-term performance under budget and cost constraints, while online exploration is prohibitively risky. Offline reinforcement learning and, more recently, Transformer-based sequence modeling have shown promise for learning bidding policies from logged data, but their unimodal and purely parametric formulations often collapse multiple effective bidding strategies into suboptimal averaged actions and perform unreliably under sparse or long-tail traffic. To mitigate these limitations, we propose DRIVE (Distributional and Retrieval-Augmented Bidding with Value Evaluation), a unified Transformer-based framework that decouples candidate action generation from decision making for offline auto-bidding. DRIVE combines distributional action modeling, retrieval-augmented candidate generation from high-quality historical decisions, and value-based evaluation to select the most promising bid at inference time. Extensive experiments on AuctionNet and additional offline reinforcement learning benchmarks demonstrate that DRIVE consistently improves bidding performance and generalizes well across multiple Transformer-based methods.

In modern online advertising platforms, Guaranteed Delivery (GD) contracts coexist and bid with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) auctions. Recent approaches either decouple GD and RTB optimization or rely on heuristic priority rules, and thus fail to effectively balance short-term revenue maximization with long-term contract delivery under complex multi-slot delivery and impression constraints. To address these challenges, we propose HMAF (Hierarchical Multi-Slot Allocation Framework), a unified framework designed to optimize impression allocation in GD--RTB advertising platforms. HMAF employs the Plan--Calibrate--Execute paradigm as its core structure, and integrates offline constraint optimization with online decision-making, balancing offline GD resource planning, dynamically calibrating GD--RTB competitiveness, and making real-time listwise rank decisions across multi-slot environments. HMAF has been implemented in multiple marketing scenarios at Meituan, one of the world's largest online food delivery platforms, leading to a 3.72% increase in GD delivery rate and a 1.59% increase in total advertisement revenue.

Logged advertising auctions make offline reserve-price evaluation attractive but risky. Replay tables can identify policies with large apparent yield gains, yet they can also hide weak threshold support, multiple-comparison effects, subgroup harm, and bidder-response uncertainty. Existing replay and off-policy evaluation methods estimate or rank policy values, but they do not directly answer the operational question of whether the available evidence is strong enough to justify validation. This paper develops a support-aware offline decision framework for reserve-policy selection. Rather than outputting a single point-estimate winner, the framework converts logged evidence into a conservative decision object consisting of certified policies, statistically dominated alternatives, and unresolved candidates requiring further validation. The main theoretical result gives a unified finite-catalog guarantee showing that, under simultaneous uncertainty control and conservative support gates, the framework preserves the best gate-passing policy while eliminating only policies with certified regret. Supporting results characterize support-localized replay generalization, establish information-theoretic threshold-resolution limits, and quantify when heterogeneous bidder response can overturn localized replay rankings. Experiments on iPinYou real-time-bidding logs show that the leading reserve rule achieves a 47.66% replay lift in season two, a 40.71% simultaneous lower-bound lift, and a 43.87% frozen out-of-time replay lift in season three. The framework reduces a 19-policy catalog to a two-policy validation shortlist while certifying non-harm across 44 advertiser, exchange, and region segments. The results support the central claim that offline reserve-policy evaluation should produce certified validation decisions rather than point-estimate rankings alone.

Marketplace platforms routinely evaluate pricing and allocation policies using logged observational data, yet strong offline performance does not imply that a policy is safe to deploy. In real-time bidding (RTB) marketplaces, reserve-price and floor-policy changes affect not only revenue but also fill, advertiser value, budget pacing, and competition across auctions, creating feedback and interference. The central problem is therefore not to estimate whether a policy improves an offline metric, but to determine whether the available evidence justifies direct launch or only further validation. In this regard, we propose a support-aware decision-support system (DSS) that distinguishes promising from actionable evidence. The framework integrates replay, support-aware off-policy evaluation (OPE), conservative lower-bound ranking, multi-sided guardrails, out-of-time validation, sensitivity analysis, and interference-aware validation design into a claim-preserving pipeline that outputs a launch-readiness classification rather than a single performance estimate. Applying the framework to iPinYou-style RTB logs, we identify a margin-gated floor policy as the leading candidate, with a 47.7% replay yield lift, a 45.8% conservative lower-tail lift, and stable out-of-time performance. However, the framework does not recommend direct launch. A decision-rule ablation shows that simplified pipelines select the same policy but incorrectly recommend deployment, leaving key causal assumptions unresolved. In contrast, the proposed DSS selects the same policy but changes the action to online validation, reflecting missing evidence on propensities, bidder response, and interference. Overall, the contribution is a reproducible DSS protocol that prevents decision overclaim under partial identification and converts offline evaluation into an auditable, action-oriented recommendation.

Brand advertising plays a critical role in building long-term consumer awareness and loyalty, making it a key objective for advertisers across digital platforms. Although real-time bidding has been extensively studied, there is limited literature on algorithms specifically tailored for brand auction ads that fully leverage their unique characteristics. In this paper, we propose a lightweight Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework designed for brand advertising campaigns, exploiting the inherent attributes of brand ads -- such as stable user engagement patterns and fast feedback loops -- to simplify modeling and improve efficiency. Our approach utilizes online isotonic regression to construct monotonic bid-to-spend and bid-to-conversion models directly from streaming data, eliminating the need for complex machine learning models. The algorithm operates fully online with low computational overhead, making it highly practical for real-world deployment. Simulation results demonstrate that our approach significantly improves spend efficiency and cost control compared to baseline strategies, providing a scalable and easily implementable solution for modern brand advertising platforms.

Optimizing a single advertising campaign across heterogeneous channels is a central challenge in industrial autobidding. Auction mechanisms vary across channels in ranking rules (pure eCPM vs. UE-augmented scoring), pricing formats (first- vs. second-price), and bidding conventions (uniform vs. non-uniform), while advertisers impose shared campaign-level constraints. We propose HOB, which makes marginal cost (MC) computable and alignable across heterogeneous channels, especially for first-price auctions (FPA) with organic-paid coexistence, where existing bidding formulations do not yield a practical aligned MC form. At the global level, HOB derives channel-specific MC forms and coordinates disparate channels through a shared MC target. At the local level, HOB models free-win probability and winning-price uncertainty with a zero-inflated exponential distribution, yielding an efficient surplus-optimal bidding strategy for non-uniform first-price auctions. We show that any interior optimum satisfies MC equalization across channels. Experiments on a controlled offline benchmark, industrial log replay, and large-scale online A/B tests demonstrate that HOB consistently delivers significant performance gains. Deployed on a large-scale commercial DSP, HOB delivers a 3.0% lift in GMV while maintaining return on advertising spend (ROAS) constraints.