Rise
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4 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.
Latest papers 27
Training a single LLM agent jointly across diverse interactive environments has attracted increasing attention as a route to generalist agents. Existing curriculum and data-selection strategies often allocate training at the environment level or prioritize local reward-based signals, without explicitly considering relationships between current rollouts across environments for prompt-group selection. Meanwhile, as environments are learned at different rates, all-failure and all-success rollout groups can coexist within a batch, leaving those data without group-relative reward signals. Both challenges highlight limitations of relying solely on scalar rewards in multi-environment RL: they provide limited information about cross-environment relationships and no within-group reward contrast when rewards are identical. This motivates richer textual feedback, such as rubrics describing rollout behaviours, to guide learning. Beyond rubrics' usage as reward, we repurpose rubrics to guide both online data selection and policy supervision. An LLM judge tags each rollout using a predefined rubric vocabulary shared across environments. The resulting profiles guide the selection of data that aligns with the overall behavioural composition of the mixed-environment batch while limiting overlap with already-selected data. Available positive rubrics (describing desired behaviours) provide privileged context for an on-policy self-distillation teacher, supplying additional token-level supervision, while negative rubrics (describing undesired behaviours) guide subsequent rollout generation away from recurring failure modes. Together, these components form RISED. Across model backbones, RISED achieves the highest mean pass rate across environments and ranks first or second in every individual environment. Rubric-based analysis of RISED can further characterize the behavioural changes accompanying these gains.
UpliftMem: Learning Set-Level Uplift for Agent Memory Retrieval
Large language model (LLM) agents reuse external memory to guide new tasks, but effective retrieval requires learning which memory sets improve execution. Such learning relies on costly outcome feedback: ordinary retrieval observes only executed sets, while evaluating alternatives requires additional rollouts. We introduce \textsc{UpliftMem}, which learns memory retrieval from set-level execution uplift relative to the same executor without memory. A theoretical analysis of how retrieval preferences restrict feedback coverage motivates targeted probing of alternative memory sets. Probe selection follows an expected value of sample information (EVSI) criterion, derived in closed form under a correlated Gaussian model, to allocate limited training rollouts according to their expected improvement in local retrieval decisions. The shared scorer is trained with a frozen executor and selects memory sets without test-time probes. Across ALFWorld, WebShop, and BigCodeBench, \textsc{UpliftMem} achieves the best success rates among evaluated baselines on the main evaluation sets. Controlled fixed-store and matched probe budget evaluations further demonstrate improved memory-use decisions and more effective use of execution feedback.
RISE: Red-teaming via Iterative Strategy Evolution for Modern Text-to-Image Models
On modern production text-to-image systems, successful policy violations are rare, and previously effective human-written seeds are often patched out. Current automated red-teamers are poorly matched to this regime in two ways: unreliable success measurement and poor exploration. First, we find that judges widely used in prior T2I red-teaming work are unreliable under vague unsafe-content targets: they either miss true violations or reward benign borderline images on hardened APIs. We therefore define strict category-specific success criteria and calibrate strong VLM judges against human labels. Second, we show that broadly used prompt-modification pipelines do not solve the exploration problem: on harder guardrail settings they remain tied to seed prompts, fail to transfer, or cannot bootstrap positive examples. We introduce RISE, which evolves reusable strategies used to generate prompts rather than rewriting them one by one. The best discovered strategies are then reused to generate attacks across new scenarios. On DALL-E 3, Nano Banana 2 (Google) and GPT-Image-2, RISE reaches up to 13% human-verified ASR; under the same calibrated evaluation, prior methods with reported ASR as high as roughly 30% fall to near zero.
Probe to Act: Elevating Browser-Use Agent via Active Visual Probing
Browser-use agents require seamless alignment between structured web metadata and visual information, while preserving relevant context across long interactions. Existing interfaces often rely on either screenshot-level action prediction or static Set-of-Marks overlays, leaving the model to resolve dense DOM-pixel alignment before every operation. We introduce Probe to Act (P2A), an active probing framework for the browser-agent loop that moves this alignment into decision time. P2A addresses an asymmetric bridge between symbolic DOM hypotheses and screenshot layout by rendering on-demand symbolic DOM structure back into pixels. Before committing a state-changing browser operation, the agent can issue lightweight probes to translate DOM handles into pixel evidence, map screen regions back to DOM candidates, register visual-only targets, and commit verified notes. These interleaved processes naturally produce evidence-based memory: only probed, acted-on, or explicitly committed observations are kept across steps, preserving only decision-critical evidence in long-horizon contexts. P2A can be used as a prompting strategy for proprietary models under the standard DOM+SoM interface, and can be distilled into open-weight models through cold-start synthesis and self-bootstrapped SFT. Across three browser-use benchmarks, P2A shows clear gains on task success rate for both proprietary and fine-tuned models; on VisualWebArena, for example, it improves Gemini-3-Pro from 54.1% to 61.2% and Qwen3-VL-8B from 24.6% to 32.9%, while matching the costly full-observation history (3) at only 1.2 the peak retained input context of action-only history.
MAGNETAR: Multipath-Guided Spatial Posteriors for Transmitter Pose Inference in the Upper Mid-Band
Robots that localize a radio transmitter need more than a point estimate: in cluttered rooms, one measurement is often consistent with several transmitter locations and, because upper-mid-band antennas are directional, several headings. We present MAGNETAR, which infers a joint posterior over planar transmitter position and heading from a single asynchronous radio-frequency (RF) multipath snapshot, represented by angle-of-arrival and signal-to-noise-ratio estimates, given the room layout and receiver pose. Among our five neural scorers, MAGNETAR adopts a shared 2D U-Net conditioned on each candidate heading, jointly normalizing scores over a discretized position-heading grid. Training uses real-to-sim-calibrated 10 GHz simulations and a small measured subset. Grid-based joint posteriors outperform parametric ones on held-out simulations, the heading-conditioned scorer transfers best to robotic measurements, and fusing joint posteriors improves on fusing position-only marginals.
Divide, Consult, Conquer: Capability Laundering Through Aligned LLMs
Language model safety is typically evaluated one interaction at a time. We show that a weaker, unaligned model can split a harmful task into benign-looking subproblems, consult a stronger aligned model independently on each, and combine the answers locally. We call this attack capability laundering. Unlike a jailbreak, no single response is a harmful task. We measure consultation-aided uplift using tasks that a raw frontier model solves, the aligned frontier refuses, and the unassisted orchestrator fails. We evaluate GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, and Grok-4.3 as consultants to four local orchestrators on CyBench, BountyBench, and harmful CBRN requests. On CyBench, Gemma-4-31B recovers 8/14 candidates with GPT-5.5 and 7/9 with Opus, compared with 2/21 and 4/15 for Gemma-4-12B. On BountyBench, Gemma-4-31B recovers 3/9 and 2/3 candidates, while Muse-Glimmer-30B recovers none of 22 and 13. For CBRN, we measure uplift across eight steps of a hypothetical bioweapon attack chain and find that consultation raises Gemma-4-31B's mean rubric score from 62.3 to 83.1 on a 100-point rubric scale. These results expose a gap in current defenses: refusing a harmful task does not prevent frontier capabilities from being transferred and composed across many individually permitted interactions.
The Rise of Verbal Reinforcement Learning
Natural language is emerging as a primary feedback channel for improving language agents, capable of conveying intent, preferences, and causal structure in forms interpretable by both humans and modern language models. We call this paradigm Verbal Reinforcement Learning (VRL) and offer the first unified account of it. We organize the field around a single axis, \textit{when} verbal feedback takes effect in an agent's lifecycle and \textit{what} it modifies, yielding three pillars: (1) \textbf{Language as Grounding Signal}, where language defines the task itself by specifying goals, states, and reward structures; (2) \textbf{Language as Deliberative Feedback}, where natural language guides reasoning at test time without the need to update model parameters; (3) \textbf{Language as Learning Signal}, where language-based feedback shapes model parameters through training. Within each pillar, we synthesize representative work, distinguish key subcategories of approaches, and outline the distinct role language plays in shaping agent behavior. Together, this taxonomy shows how verbal reinforcement is reshaping agent development, while also defining the challenges and opportunities for building more capable and aligned agents.
The rise and evolution of a referential code in populations of bee-like agents
Communication typically relies on a shared code, and any change to it must be coordinated between senders and receivers to avoid a breakdown of communication. The honeybee waggle dance illustrates this problem: species with horizontal combs point directly at a food source, while species with vertical combs cannot point directly and instead reference the dance to gravity, decoded against the position of the sun. We model the rise of the first of these codes and its evolutionary transition to the second in populations of bee-like agents, with selection acting at the level of colonies. In a horizontal-comb model, we find that direct pointing evolves readily when food is moderately hard to find by random search alone, whether because sites are few and large or many and small, and fails when food is too sparse to spark dances or so abundant that it is found without signaling. Adding an exogenous benefit for vertical combs, we then find that the transition to the gravity-referenced code is driven mainly by the mutation rate and the magnitude of this benefit, with the coupling between sender and receiver mutations playing a further role at low mutation rates. Given a favorable confluence of these factors, the transition proceeds reliably and without a breakdown of communication.
Reducing Symmetry Increase in Equivariant Neural Networks
Equivariant Neural Networks (ENNs) have empowered numerous applications in scientific fields. Despite their remarkable capacity for representing geometric structures, ENNs suffer from degraded expressivity when processing symmetric inputs: the output representations are invariant to transformations that extend beyond the input's symmetries. The mathematical essence of this phenomenon is that a symmetric input, after being processed by an equivariant map, experiences an increase in symmetry. While prior research has documented symmetry increase in specific cases, a rigorous understanding of its underlying causes and general reduction strategies remains lacking. In this paper, we provide a detailed and in-depth characterization of symmetry increase together with a principled framework for its reduction: (i) For any given feature space and input symmetry group, we prove that the increased symmetry admits an infimum determined by the structure of the feature space; (ii) Building on this foundation, we develop a computable algorithm to derive this infimum, and propose practical guidelines for feature design to prevent harmful symmetry increases. (iii) Under standard regularity assumptions, we demonstrate that for most equivariant maps, our guidelines effectively reduce symmetry increase. To complement our theoretical findings, we provide visualizations and experiments on both synthetic datasets and the real-world QM9 dataset. The results validate our theoretical predictions.
FunnelCausalNet: Funnel-aware Joint Conversion-Revenue Uplift for Multi-tier Coupon Allocation
Coupon campaigns seek to lift both conversion and revenue, but gross merchandise value (GMV) follows a deterministic funnel from conversion to conditional order value and is zero-inflated and heavy-tailed. We propose FunnelCausalNet, an uplift estimator coupling a binary conversion head with a nonnegative conditional-value head through . Under explicit RCT, support, rate-gap, and cross-head covariance-control assumptions, an idealized leading-order MSE comparison identifies a regime in which funnel composition can reduce pointwise variance; this is a heuristic, not a guarantee for the shared-representation neural model. The estimator is paired with marginal split-conformal CATE summaries, combined through a Bonferroni union as audit bands, and a Lagrangian budgeted allocator using RCT-anchored estimates for subsidy-aware ROI accounting. On semi-synthetic multi-tier Criteo-MT7, FunnelCausalNet's mean AUUC_GMV is within one seed standard deviation of the leading feature-interaction baseline among eleven baselines, while a controlled ablation reduces GMV effect error versus direct GMV regression by 18--48% across tested zero-inflation regimes. On de-identified industrial Hotel-Coupon RCT logs with about 4.9 million hold-out exposure records per seed, expected-outcome evaluation sweeps full LP frontiers; FunnelCausalNet has the best seed-averaged mean DeltaROI at all seven correlated anchors from 10% to 60%, which we treat as descriptive frontier consistency rather than independent significance. On sparse binary-spend public benchmarks, revenue-focused rankers can dominate uplift-curve proxies, defining an explicit regime boundary.
UpliftBench: Revealing Outcome-Regime and Objective Mismatch in Uplift Evaluation
Uplift modeling (conditional-average-treatment-effect estimation) drives personalized targeting, yet published uplift benchmarks frequently disagree on which estimator performs best; we show the disagreement is substantially about metrics, not models. UpliftBench evaluates 12 uplift estimators under an outer-test-isolated, multi-objective protocol across seven dataset families; its two findings are identified where a reference objective exists -- F1 on the standard continuous benchmark (IHDP), F2 in a within-sample case study on Jobs. On that benchmark, Qini shows no detectable alignment with effect accuracy -- across all 100 IHDP realizations its mean rank correlation with effect accuracy is +0.07, 95% CI [-0.03, +0.16] -- while AUUC is consistently more aligned (paired prefix-mean-AUUC-over-Qini gap +0.49 [+0.40, +0.59]; the shipped cumulative-gain AUUC aligns better still, +0.73). On Jobs, ranking metrics are structurally insufficient for a sign-threshold policy because they discard the score level; empirically, within the released split-rotation analysis direct policy-risk selection yields lower benchmark regret than random model selection while Qini, AUUC, and uplift-at- do not (14-15% regret). Calibrating the decision threshold removes 81% of the Qini-selection regret. Both findings are bounded, not universal: F1 is not detected on either validation family (the ACIC and Revenue-Synthetic gaps are both indistinguishable from zero), and F2 vanishes under a budgeted-value objective where rank suffices. UpliftBench releases versioned loaders, fixed protocols, result artifacts, and a reproducible living leaderboard; the public repository accompanies the paper.
Multi-channel Uplift Policy Learning
E-commerce platforms must allocate fixed marketing budgets across multiple channels to maximize business utility. However, standard predict-then-optimize (PTO) paradigms fail in this compositional space due to observational confounding and severe extrapolation. We formulate this challenge as a simplex-constrained uplift decision problem and propose ReAlloc, a fast-slow causal framework. Specifically, an agile Orthogonal Teacher extracts unbiased local gradients from short-term logs, while an Explanation-Guided Student distills them into a structured marginal field over long-term horizons. This design enables support-aware, conservative decisions that capture cross-channel substitutions. Extensive simulations and large-scale online A/B tests on Taobao platform demonstrate that ReAlloc achieves simultaneous lifts in both pay order and income.
A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models
As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone. Existing CBRN evaluations differ in non-expert definitions, threat scope, baselines, scoring rubrics, and decision rules, making results difficult to compare across studies. We introduce a Threshold Exceedance Criteria (TEC) framework that decomposes an uplift study into independently executable components: determining non-expert participant eligibility, defining the CBRN threat scope for the study, and statistically estimating material uplift. We then operationalize the TEC framework in a large-scale empirical study using a design that determines two forms of uplift: generative (where a model assists plan creation from scratch) and revisionist (where a model assists refinement of an existing plan). The study produced attack plans across the CBRN domains, which we evaluated through subject-matter-expert review to estimate generative and revisionist uplift. Applying the framework, our empirical study revealed domain heterogeneity: under this controlled pre-release evaluation, model-assisted plans sometimes received expert-equivalent instructional ratings, but confirmed material uplift was limited to the radiological domain. These findings informed mitigation and deployment-governance decisions rather than characterizing deployed model behavior. We conclude with methodological lessons for future CBRN uplift evaluations, emphasizing prespecified criteria, explicit baselines, separation of generative and revisionist estimates, and careful distinction between preliminary screening signals and confirmed risk determinations.
CanniUplift: A Holistic Framework for Mitigating Seller and Incentive Cannibalization in E-commerce Uplift Modeling
Personalized incentive allocation is vital for e-commerce, where uplift modeling is the standard for estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE). However, traditional models often fail in complex multi-seller environments with violations of the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA). We identify two critical challenges: Seller-level Cannibalization, where incentives shift expenditure between shops without growing the platform, and Incentive-level Cannibalization, where organic conversions or alternative rewards introduce significant noise into incrementality estimation. In this paper, we propose CanniUplift, a unified framework to mitigate these dual-source cannibalization effects. Specifically, we design Platform-level Global Alignment (PGA) to capture cross-shop substitution through global GMV consistency constraints. To tackle incentive-driven noise, we introduce Redemption-based Decomposition Denoising (RDD), which uses redemption behavior to decompose treated outcomes and reduce attribution noise within an entire-space framework. Furthermore, a Treat-Attention mechanism is designed to model intricate interactions between users' historical behaviors and current treatment options. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and large-scale industrial datasets demonstrate that CanniUplift significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Ablation studies confirm that the integration of PGA and RDD consistently improves wAUUC and wQINI. Successfully deployed online, our framework achieved a 4.08% relative increase in platform-wide incremental GMV (Delta GMV) over the production baseline and improved ROI in online A/B tests, proving effective in driving global platform growth.
YUKTI: From Natural-Language Situations to Robust, Verifiable Decisions An Uncertainty-Typed Proposition IR, Assumption-Robust Pareto Frontiers, and a Regret Certificate
Language models turn a worded situation into a numeric plan, and the dominant pipelines (NL4Opt, OptiMUS, ORLM, OR-LLM-Agent) commit to a single objective and point-valued coefficients, then solve once. For decisions that allocate real budget, effort, or clinical attention, that confidence is the failure mode: every objectified number is an assumption, and a plan optimal only if the guesses are exactly right is fragile -- mimicry of computation. YUKTI changes the target of autoformulation. Its representation is a typed-proposition graph whose relationships carry shape priors, coefficient uncertainty, and provenance. YUKTI routes each stage to an exact, nonlinear, or evolutionary solver; couples stages by a distributional Pareto hand-off; and introduces Assumption-Robust Pareto Frontiers (ARPF), resampling assumptions (including structural epsilon-contamination) to score how often each action survives (rho). We prove a bound making rho an exact factor of decision regret, add auditable traceability, and synthesize a benchmark-faithful data foundation when none exists (SRJANA). We validate three ways: under controlled misspecification the robust compromise cuts mean and tail regret by over 90% versus a naive point plan; on a regulated commercial decision we optimize inside a lawful action space and price the downside in euros; and on a real public dataset of 41,188 decisions an out-of-sample backtest beats the logged status quo by 34% and a naive point rule by 4% while reducing the optimizer's curse. The solvers are standard; we claim no benchmark-SOTA win. A head-to-head shows an LLM given the correct numbers, and single-objective optimization, both incur about 47x the held-out regret of YUKTI -- an LLM is a formulator, not a solver. Under long-range causal coupling, the forward hand-off becomes unsound, locating where it must become a backward-induction causal policy.
RaysUp: Ultra-light Universal Feature Upsampling via Geometry-Aware Ray Representation
Pre-trained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) have become central to modern computer vision due to their powerful semantic representations and strong generalization ability. However, their patchified or pooled outputs are inherently low-resolution, limiting their effectiveness in tasks requiring fine-grained, pixel-level reasoning. Existing feature upsampling approaches either degrade semantic fidelity or rely on VFM-specific retraining and heavy architectures, hindering efficiency and scalability. To address these challenges, we propose RaysUp, an ultra-lightweight, task-agnostic, and VFM-agnostic feature upsampling framework that reconstructs high-resolution feature maps at arbitrary resolutions. Unlike conventional 2D interpolation or attention-based schemes, RaysUp lifts feature reconstruction into a geometry-aware ray domain. Specifically, we introduce a Spatially Decoupled Guidance Encoder for direction-aware guidance encoding, an Any-Resolution Cross-Attention mechanism for resolution-flexible reconstruction, and a novel Ray Positional Encoding (RayPE) that injects implicit 3D geometric priors via 6D Plucker ray coordinates. Finally, a Geometry-Aware Neighborhood Attention module further ensures content-adaptive bilateral aggregation while preserving geometric consistency. Extensive experiments across diverse dense prediction tasks demonstrate that RaysUp achieves state-of-the-art performance while using only 16% of the parameters of AnyUp and delivering approximately 7x faster inference. These results highlight a substantially improved accuracy-efficiency trade-off and establish RaysUp as a practical and scalable solution for universal feature upsampling. Code is available at https://github.com/MAP-RaysUp/RaysUp.
Zero-shot Transfer of Reinforcement Learning Control Policies for the Swing-Up and Stabilization of a Cart-Pole System
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful and convenient tool to modernize controller design. In this work, we study the zero-shot transfer of RL-based control policies from simulation to hardware for cart-pole swing-up and stabilization. The two policies are trained independently, and the handoff is implemented in Simulink via switching logic. We apply a first-order action smoothing filter to prevent hardware damage from high-frequency oscillatory actuation. Pairing this bandwidth-aware filtering with sensitivity-guided domain randomization (DR) and a simple linear curriculum learning (CL) schedule, we obtain a swing-up policy that in all of our experiments injects sufficient energy for handoff into the stabilizer's region of attraction. The stabilization policy rejects disturbances within the tested range, and the swing-up policy can re-engage after larger perturbations and restores the pendulum to the inverted position.
Safeguard-Conditioned Uplift: Measuring Utility-Risk Frontiers for Dual-Use Biology Assistants
Safety evaluations for dual-use biology assistants often measure base-model capability, refusal behavior, or jailbreak success. These metrics miss a deployment question: for a fixed base model, how does the access condition users actually see change benign utility and harmful actionable assistance? I introduce safeguard-conditioned uplift, a protocol for comparing deployed access conditions through a human-judged utility-risk frontier. I evaluate Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini 3.5 Flash under helpful prompting, safety prompting, and an external safeguarded assistant on a 108-task surrogate benchmark, with the headline claim restricted to a locked 18-task held-out split. In a 600-row blinded human audit, the safeguarded assistant reduces harmful actionability relative to helpful prompting by -0.063 over 49 matched response pairs, with bootstrap 95% interval [-0.117, -0.011], while correctness changes by +0.009 with interval [-0.057, +0.077]. Adaptive, Test-B, cue-ablation, and controller-baseline checks support the measurement story but also show non-dominance: safety prompting is often strongest for Claude, while external control helps more for Gemini and can reduce benign utility. The contribution is not a universal defense. It is a deployment-level evaluation target, plus a learned risk-budgeted calibration procedure, for measuring how user-facing access conditions move the utility-risk frontier.
The Holistic Storage of Verb+Up Phrases in Text-based and Audio-based Language Models
A crucial aspect of linguistic capability is the ability to trade off between stored representations and abstract knowledge: one must retrieve learned representations, but also generate novel ones by applying productive rules. While recent work has examined abstract knowledge in language models, holistic storage of multi-word units has received far less attention. We probe internal representations in text-based LLMs and an ASR model, testing whether V+up phrasal verbs develop distinct representations as a function of frequency and predictability. All models show evidence of holistic storage driven by frequency and predictability, further supporting usage-based theories of language.
RISE: Reliable Improvement in Self-Evolving Vision-Language Models
Vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved strong multimodal reasoning capabilities, but further improving them still relies heavily on large-scale human-constructed supervision for post-training. Such supervision is costly to obtain, especially for reasoning-intensive multimodal tasks where questions, answers, and feedback signals must be carefully designed. This motivates self-evolving learning, where a model improves itself through a dual-role closed loop: a questioner autonomously poses questions and a solver learns to solve them. However, we observe that current VLM self-evolving methods still face three major challenges: coarse-grained role alternation delays the interaction between question generation and solver adaptation; generated questions can progressively degrade in quality; and question types may collapse toward a narrow distribution. These issues limit the efficiency and reliability of self-evolution. Thus, we propose \textbf{RISE}, a reliable self-evolving framework for vision-language models. RISE is built on three complementary designs: fine-grained role alternation, which shortens the feedback loop between the questioner and the solver to improve efficiency; a quality supervisor, which improves question validity and pseudo-label reliability; and skill-aware dynamic balancing, which mitigates mode collapse and maintains broad skill coverage during evolution. Together, these components enable more reliable and effective self-evolution from unlabeled images. Experiments on two VLM backbones across seven benchmarks show that RISE consistently improves the base models, yielding broad and sustained gains. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/RISE.
RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare
Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.
Learning to Bid with Unknown Private Values in Budget-Constrained First-Price Auctions
The transition to First-Price Auctions (FPA) in digital advertising has spurred significant research, yet existing work typically assumes access to a valuation oracle, ignoring the reality that values must be inferred from censored data. While Linear Treatment Effect (LTE) models address this by learning value uplift, they have not been adapted to realistic settings with hard Budget constraints or Return-on-Spend (RoS) targets requiring regret and violation control. In this work, we propose a unified primal-dual framework for constrained FPAs that jointly learns the latent LTE valuation parameters and the competitor's bid distribution. This simultaneous learning introduces a critical technical challenge: the estimation error is dynamically scaled by the Lagrangian multiplier, potentially leading to unbounded regret. We resolve this by leveraging a strong Slater condition and a novel adaptive burn-in procedure to stabilize the dual variables. Our approach achieves near-optimal regret guarantees, providing the first theoretically grounded solution for constrained bidding with latent valuations.
Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits: Bridging Uplift Modeling and Sequential Decision-Making
Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising: advertisers must decide which users to show ads to while spending a limited budget wisely. The standard approach follows a two-stage offline pipeline - first collect historical data to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), then solve a constrained optimization to allocate the budget. This works well with abundant data, but fails in cold-start settings such as new campaigns, new markets, or new customer segments where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget, making treatment decisions one user at a time. BCCB unifies three components into a single sequential process: learning individual-level ad effectiveness, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We evaluated on the Criteo Uplift dataset, a large-scale advertising dataset from a real randomized controlled trial. Our key finding is a data-efficiency crossover: offline methods require approximately 10,000 historical observations to produce reliable results, while BCCB operates effectively from the very first user. Furthermore, BCCB exhibits 3-5x lower performance variance between runs, making it more practical for real campaign planning. Among purely online methods, BCCB consistently outperforms standard Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, and greedy HTE estimation across all budget levels tested.
Shift-Up: A Framework for Software Engineering Guardrails in AI-native Software Development -- Initial Findings
Generative AI (GenAI) is reshaping software engineering by shifting development from manual coding toward agent-driven implementation. While vibe coding promises rapid prototyping, it often suffers from architectural drift, limited traceability, and reduced maintainability. Applying the design science research (DSR) methodology, this paper proposes Shift-Up, a framework that reinterprets established software engineering practices, like executable requirements (BDD), architectural modeling (C4), and architecture decision records (ADRs), as structural guardrails for GenAI-native development. Preliminary findings from our exploratory evaluation compare unstructured vibe coding, structured prompt engineering, and the Shift-Up approach in the development of a web application. These findings indicate that embedding machine-readable requirements and architectural artifacts stabilizes agent behavior, reduces implementation drift, and shifts human effort toward higher-level design and validation activities. The results suggest that traditional software engineering artifacts can serve as effective control mechanisms in AI-assisted development.
Verbal tics in frontier language models: A critical review of current releases, research evidence, and public discussion
Repeated praise, canned reassurance, familiar contrasts, and conspicuous vocabulary are recurring subjects in discussions of large language models. Their interpretation depends on context: a conventional phrase may be useful, while a fluent answer may reinforce a false belief. This critical review examines linguistic habits and sycophancy across eight developer families: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, DeepSeek, and Xiaomi. We verify current public offerings against official release and API documentation, with an evidence cutoff of 1 October 2026. We synthesize research on lexical overrepresentation, stylistic variation, social warmth, and agreement, alongside benchmark methods and dated English and Chinese public discussions. The research reviewed documents recurring linguistic patterns and agreement that distorts judgment; comparable measurements of the newest releases are sparse in the retrieved set. Current user reports include both complaints and improved writing, with experiences varying by task and prompting. We propose separate measures of recurrence, contextual appropriateness, and belief distortion, with precise service records and language-specific annotation. This framework makes claims about writing quality and conversational reliability testable as model services change.
Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework
In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by these interventions. This causes conventional models to miscalibrate base CTRs, which distorts downstream ranking and billing decisions. Furthermore, marketing interventions often operate as multi-valued treatments with varying magnitudes, introducing additional complexity to CTR prediction. To address these issues, we propose the Unified Multi-Valued Treatment Network (UniMVT). Specifically, UniMVT disentangles confounding factors from treatment-sensitive representations, enabling a full-space counterfactual inference module to jointly reconstruct the debiased base CTR and intensity-response curves. To handle the complexity of multi-valued treatments, UniMVT employs an auxiliary intensity estimation task to capture treatment propensities and devise a unit uplift objective that normalizes the intervention effect. This ensures comparable estimation across the continuous coupon-value spectrum. UniMVT simultaneously achieves debiased CTR prediction for accurate system calibration and precise uplift estimation for incentive allocation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and industrial datasets demonstrate UniMVT's superiority in both predictive accuracy and calibration. Furthermore, real-world A/B tests confirm that UniMVT significantly improves business metrics through more effective coupon distribution.
Soft Swing-up: Benchmarking Model-Based Optimal Control for Rigid-Soft Underactuated Systems
Continuum soft robots are inherently underactuated and subject to intrinsic input constraints, making dynamic control particularly challenging, especially in hybrid rigid-soft robots. While most existing methods focus on quasi-static behaviors, dynamic tasks such as swing-up require accurate exploitation of continuum dynamics. This has led to studies on simple low-order template systems that often fail to capture the complexity of real continuum deformations. Model-based optimal control offers a systematic solution; however, its application to rigid-soft robots is often limited by the computational cost and inaccuracy of numerical differentiation for high-dimensional models. Building on recent advances in the Geometric Variable Strain model that enable analytical derivatives, this work investigates three optimal control strategies for underactuated soft systems -- Direct Collocation, Differential Dynamic Programming, and Nonlinear Model Predictive Control -- to perform dynamic swing-up tasks. To address stiff continuum dynamics and constrained actuation, implicit integration schemes and warm-start strategies are employed to improve numerical robustness and computational efficiency. The methods are evaluated in simulation on three Rigid-Soft and high-order soft benchmark systems -- the Soft Cart-Pole, the Soft Pendubot, and the Soft Furuta Pendulum -- highlighting their performance and computational trade-offs.