Risk-Aware Control

As control engineering is applied to increasingly complex systems, learning-based control, which uses empirical data to reduce the reliance on first-principles models, has emerged as a promising paradigm. However, such approaches must cope with nonlinear and stochastic dynamics, the absence of state measurements, and scarce data, while ensuring safe operation under constraints, which requires rigorous uncertainty quantification. Whereas existing methods treat these challenges in isolation, this article proposes a Bayesian framework that jointly addresses them. A prior in state-space form is updated from input-output data using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, yielding a representation of joint uncertainty over dynamics and latent states. Building on this representation, a validation procedure is developed that provides probabilistic guarantees for constraint satisfaction under arbitrary causal control laws. For control synthesis, a formulation penalizing the conditional value-at-risk of the constraint function is proposed, together with an adaptive calibration mechanism that adjusts the performance-robustness trade-off to achieve a desired robustness level. The probability of successful certification is characterized theoretically. The framework is extended to a receding-horizon setting, where posterior updates from new measurements allow the controller to progressively reduce uncertainty and improve performance. The approach is demonstrated on the optimal control of a vertical farm.

We formulate and analyze the linear exponential quadratic Gaussian (LEQG) covariance steering problem in continuous time over a given deadline (finite time horizon). The solution for this problem can be seen as a risk-sensitive Schrödinger bridge between Gaussian endpoints in the linear quadratic setting. Unlike the risk-neutral case, the LEQG covariance steering controller--still a linear state feedback--can no longer be written in closed form. We show that the optimal controller is parameterized by a symmetric matrix solving an algebraic equation that encodes the implicit dependence on the risk-sensitivity parameter. We explain how the structure of this optimal controller significantly generalizes the existing results for the risk-neutral case. Building on these results, for the matched noise and input channel case, we prove the existence-uniqueness of solution for the LEQG covariance steering problem in the neighborhood of the known risk-neutral optimal solution. We give an illustrative numerical example.

Covariance steering provides an efficient framework for designing linear stochastic feedback policies, but its extension to nonlinear systems relies on a Gaussian surrogate obtained through local linearization. Because this surrogate may differ substantially from the true nonlinear state distribution, risk-sensitive quantities such as collision probability and mean-squared error may be inaccurately estimated. This work develops a distributionally robust covariance-steering framework based on the relative entropy, also known as the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), to account for ambiguity in the propagated probability density function. Using a variational representation of exponential integrals, we derive computable upper bounds on risk-sensitive quantities over a KLD ambiguity set. We then formulate an upper bound on the time rate of change of the KLD between the true nonlinear distribution and a Gaussian reference surrogate. Under some assumptions, this bound is controlled by decision variables within a covariance-steering formulation. The resulting constraints are incorporated into a sequential convex programming algorithm to design stochastic guidance policies that keep the true distribution close to its Gaussian surrogate while enforcing bounds on risk-sensitive performance measures. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a challenging nonlinear spacecraft transfer between two near-rectilinear halo orbits.

Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a feasible trajectory. The main claim is conditional: retained lookahead can improve delayed constrained decisions only when delayed feasible-set coupling, retained-prefix premises, and fail-closed release certificates hold. The promoted public endpoint is Phase128 certified M4 expanded40: validation selects Certificate-Constrained Retained Pareto Beam with $λ=0.25$, the held-out test has certificate/risk-active rates $1.0000/0.9642$, and the weakest family remains above the unchanged $0.95$ gate at $0.9516$ on M4Weekly. The author-defined public $9$-family suite remains an uncertified stress-test boundary. The paper reports a trace-only mechanism, one certified public endpoint, failed-route certificates, and deployment boundaries rather than a universal risk-control theorem.

As autonomous vehicles move from a simplified research setting to practical use, there exists a large gap between the dynamic behavior of a human driving and an autonomous system. Risk-aware behavior needs to naturally develop in order to scale to the demands of the real world. A major issue for risk-aware planning and control has been predicting how dynamical uncertainty evolves through time and optimizing plans that account for this without being overly conservative. Here, we present a learning framework to predict distributional dynamics that can be optimized in real time for Model Predictive Control (MPC). We explore the importance of structure when learning distributional dynamics for use in MPC. A rigorous ablation study is conducted on a large dataset of real world off-road driving that shows the impact of deviations from our proposed structure. Furthermore, we deploy our learned model and planning stack on a full sized vehicle in challenging off-road conditions. Our planning architecture is able to naturally regulate the speed of the vehicle based on the environment and consistently demonstrates intelligent behavior over miles of diverse terrain.

Learning-based quadruped controllers achieve impressive agility but typically lack formal safety guarantees under model uncertainty, perception noise, and unstructured contact conditions. We introduce SafeMind, a differentiable stochastic safety-control framework that unifies probabilistic Control Barrier Functions with semantic context understanding and meta-adaptive risk calibration. SafeMind explicitly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty through a variance-aware barrier constraint embedded in a differentiable quadratic program, thereby preserving gradient flow for end-to-end training. A semantics-to-constraint encoder modulates safety margins using perceptual or language cues, while a meta-adaptive learner continuously adjusts risk sensitivity across environments. We provide theoretical conditions for probabilistic forward invariance, feasibility, and stability under stochastic dynamics. SafeMind is deployed on Unitree A1 and ANYmal C at 200~Hz and validated across 12 terrain types, dynamic obstacles, morphology perturbations, and semantically defined tasks. Experiments show that SafeMind reduces safety violations by 3--10x and energy consumption by 10--15% relative to state-of-the-art CBF, MPC, and hybrid RL baselines, while maintaining real-time control performance.

Ethical decision governance has become a critical requirement for autonomous robotic systems operating in human-centered and safety-sensitive environments. This paper presents a real-time neuro-symbolic ethical governor designed to enable risk-aware supervisory control in autonomous robotic manipulation tasks. The proposed framework integrates transformer-based ethical reasoning with a probabilistic ethical risk field formulation and a threshold-based override control mechanism. language-grounded ethical intent inference capability is learned from natural language task descriptions using a fine-tuned DistilBERT model trained on the ETHICS commonsense dataset. A continuous ethical risk metric is subsequently derived from predicted unsafe action probability, confidence uncertainty, and probabilistic variance to support adaptive decision filtering. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through simulated autonomous robot-arm task scenarios involving varying levels of human proximity and operational hazard. Experimental results demonstrate stable model convergence, reliable ethical risk discrimination, and improved safety-aware decision outcomes without significant degradation of task execution efficiency. The proposed neuro-symbolic architecture further provides enhanced interpretability compared with purely data-driven safety filters, enabling transparent ethical reasoning in real-time control loops. The findings suggest that ethical decision governance can be effectively modeled as a dynamic supervisory risk layer for autonomous robotic systems, with potential applicability to broader cyber-physical and assistive robotics domains.

With advances in imitation learning (IL) and large-scale driving datasets, end-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) has made great progress recently. Currently, IL-based methods have become a mainstream paradigm: models rely on standard driving behaviors given by experts, and learn to minimize the discrepancy between their actions and expert actions. However, this objective of "only driving like the expert" suffers from limited generalization: when encountering rare or unseen long-tail scenarios outside the distribution of expert demonstrations, models tend to produce unsafe decisions in the absence of prior experience. This raises a fundamental question: Can an E2E-AD system make reliable decisions without any expert action supervision? Motivated by this, we propose a unified framework named Risk-aware World Model Predictive Control (RaWMPC) to address this generalization dilemma through robust control, without reliance on expert demonstrations. Practically, RaWMPC leverages a world model to predict the consequences of multiple candidate actions and selects low-risk actions through explicit risk evaluation. To endow the world model with the ability to predict the outcomes of risky driving behaviors, we design a risk-aware interaction strategy that systematically exposes the world model to hazardous behaviors, making catastrophic outcomes predictable and thus avoidable. Furthermore, to generate low-risk candidate actions at test time, we introduce a self-evaluation distillation method to distill riskavoidance capabilities from the well-trained world model into a generative action proposal network without any expert demonstration. Extensive experiments show that RaWMPC outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios, while providing superior decision interpretability.