Scaling Laws

We investigate the scaling properties of implicit deductive reasoning over Horn clauses in depth-bounded Transformers. By systematically decorrelating provability from spurious features and enforcing algorithmic alignment, we find that in sufficiently deep models with a bidirectional prefix mask, implicit reasoning approaches explicit CoT performance across graph topologies and problem widths, though CoT remains necessary for depth extrapolation.

Clinical LLMs are often scaled by increasing model size, context length, retrieval complexity, or inference-time compute, with the implicit expectation that higher accuracy implies safer behavior. This assumption is incomplete in medicine, where a few confident, high-risk, or evidence-contradicting errors can matter more than average benchmark performance. We introduce SaFE-Scale, a framework for measuring how clinical LLM safety changes across model scale, evidence quality, retrieval strategy, context exposure, and inference-time compute. To instantiate this framework, we introduce RadSaFE-200, a Radiology Safety-Focused Evaluation benchmark of 200 multiple-choice questions with clinician-defined clean evidence, conflict evidence, and option-level labels for high-risk error, unsafe answer, and evidence contradiction. We evaluated 34 locally deployed LLMs across six deployment conditions: closed-book prompting (zero-shot), clean evidence, conflict evidence, standard RAG, agentic RAG, and max-context prompting. Clean evidence produced the strongest improvement, increasing mean accuracy from 73.5% to 94.1%, while reducing high-risk error from 12.0% to 2.6%, contradiction from 12.7% to 2.3%, and dangerous overconfidence from 8.0% to 1.6%. Standard RAG and agentic RAG did not reproduce this safety profile: agentic RAG improved accuracy over standard RAG and reduced contradiction, but high-risk error and dangerous overconfidence remained elevated. Max-context prompting increased latency without closing the safety gap, and additional inference-time compute produced only limited gains. Worst-case analysis showed that clinically consequential errors concentrated in a small subset of questions. Clinical LLM safety is therefore not a passive consequence of scaling, but a deployment property shaped by evidence quality, retrieval design, context construction, and collective failure behavior.

Upweighting high-quality data in LLM pretraining often improves performance, but in datalimited regimes, especially under overtraining, stronger upweighting increases repetition and can degrade performance. However, standard scaling laws do not reliably extrapolate across mixture recipes or under repetitions, making the selection for optimal data recipes at scaling underdetermined. To solve this, we introduce InfoLaw (Information Scaling Laws), a data-aware scaling framework that predicts loss from consumed tokens, model size, data mixture weights, and repetition. The key idea is to model pretraining as information accumulation, where quality controls information density and repetition induces scaledependent diminishing returns. We first collect the model performance after training on datasets that vary in scale, quality distribution, and repetition level. Then we build up the modeling for information so that information accurately predicts those model performance. InfoLaw predicts performance on unseen data recipes and larger scale runs (up to 7B, 425B tokens) with 0.15% mean and 0.96% max absolute error in loss, and it extrapolates reliably across overtraining levels, enabling efficient data-recipe selection under varying compute budgets.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay ($λ=1.0$) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

We prove pathwise convergence of the layerwise evolution of tokens in a finite-depth, finite-width transformer model with MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) blocks to a continuous-time stochastic interacting particle system. We also identify the stochastic partial differential equation describing the evolution of the tokens' distribution in this limit and prove propagation of chaos when the number of such tokens is large. The bounds we establish are quantitative and the limits we consider commute. We further prove that the limiting stochastic model displays synchronization by noise and establish exponential dissipation of the interaction energy on average, provided that the common noise is sufficiently coercive relative to the deterministic self-attention drift. We finally characterize the activation functions satisfying the former condition.

Speech-only spoken language models (SLMs) lag behind text and text-speech models in performance, with recent discrete autoregressive (AR) SLMs indicating significant computational and data demands to match text models. Since discretizing continuous speech for AR creates bottlenecks, we explore whether continuous diffusion (CD) SLM is more viable. To quantify the SLMs linguistic quality, we introduce the phoneme Jensen-Shannon divergence (pJSD) metric. Our analysis reveals CD SLMs, mirroring AR behavior, exhibit scaling laws for validation loss and pJSD, and show optimal token-to-parameter ratios decreasing as compute scales. However, for the latter, loss becomes insensitive to choice of data and model sizes, showing potential for fast inference. Scaling CD SLMs to 16B parameters with tens of millions of hours of conversational data enables generation of emotive, prosodic, multi-speaker, multilingual speech, though achieving long-form coherence remains a significant challenge.

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

We measure how much one recurrence is worth to a looped (depth-recurrent) transformer, in equivalent unique parameters. From an iso-depth pretraining sweep across recurrence counts $r \in \{1, 2, 4, 8\}$ spanning ${\sim}50\times$ in training compute, we fit a joint scaling law $L = E + A\,(N_\text{once} + r^{\varphi} N_\text{rec})^{-α} + B\,D^{-β}$ and measure a recurrence-equivalence exponent $\varphi = 0.46$. Intuitively, $\varphi$ tells us whether looping a block $r$ times is equivalent in validation loss to $r$ unique blocks of a non-looped model (full equivalence, $\varphi{=}1$) or to a single block run repeatedly with no capacity gain ($\varphi{=}0$). Our $\varphi = 0.46$ sits in between, so replacing unique blocks with shared recurrences increases validation loss at matched training compute. For example, at $r{=}4$ a 410M looped model performs on par with a 580M non-looped model, but incurs the training cost of a 1B non-looped one. We demonstrate the utility of $\varphi$ as a diagnostic tool on two case studies: commonly used truncated backpropagation lowers $\varphi$ to $0.38$, indicating that the loop mechanism is poorly trained under truncation, even though validation loss decreases. Conversely, hyperconnections raise $\varphi$ to $0.65$, a genuine capacity gain. Our method separates true loop improvements from training-side gains, a distinction raw validation loss cannot make.

How much data is enough to make a scientific discovery? As biomedical datasets scale to millions of samples and AI models grow in capacity, progress increasingly depends on predicting when additional data will substantially improve performance. In practice, model development often relies on empirical scaling curves measured across architectures, modalities, and dataset sizes, with limited theoretical guidance on when performance should improve, saturate, or exhibit cross-over behavior. We propose a scaling-law framework for cross-modal discoverability based on spectral structure of data covariance operators, task-aligned signal projections, and learned representations. Many performance metrics, including AUC, can be expressed in terms of cumulative signal-to-noise energy accumulated across identifiable spectral modes of an encoder and cross-modal operator. Under mild assumptions, this accumulation follows a zeta-like scaling law governed by power-law decay of covariance spectra and aligned signal energy, leading naturally to the appearance of the Riemann zeta function. Representation learning methods such as sparse models, low-rank embeddings, and multimodal contrastive objectives improve sample efficiency by concentrating useful signal into earlier stable modes, effectively steepening spectral decay and shifting scaling curves. The framework predicts cross-over regimes in which simpler models perform best at small sample sizes, while higher-capacity or multimodal encoders outperform them once sufficient data stabilizes additional degrees of freedom. Applications include multimodal disease classification, imaging genetics, functional MRI, and topological data analysis. The resulting zeta law provides a principled way to anticipate when scaling data, improving representations, or adding modalities is most likely to accelerate discovery.

We study scaling laws of signSGD under a power-law random features (PLRF) model that accounts for both feature and target decay. We analyze the population risk of a linear model trained with one-pass signSGD on Gaussian-sketched features. We express the risk as a function of model size, training steps, learning rate, and the feature and target decay parameters. Comparing against the SGD risk analyzed by Paquette et al. (2024), we identify a drift-normalization effect and a noise-reshaping effect unique to signSGD. We then obtain compute-optimal scaling laws under the optimal choice of learning rate. Our analysis shows that the noise-reshaping effect can make the compute-optimal slope of signSGD steeper than that of SGD in regimes where noise is dominant. Finally, we observe that the widely used warmup-stable-decay (WSD) schedule further reduces the noise term and sharpens the compute-optimal slope, when feature decay is fast but target decay is slow.

Geospatial applications such as urban planning, epidemic forecasting, and transportation demand modeling depend on individual mobility data, but such data are costly to collect, uneven in coverage, and privacy-sensitive. Human mobility simulation offers a scalable alternative. A recent line of work treats large language models (LLMs) as human agents, modeling individual cognitive processes to generate realistic trajectories. Yet because each agent is simulated in isolation, these methods provide no population-level coordination mechanism, and the collective regularities of real mobility - how trip distances, visited locations, and flows distribute across a population - fail to emerge. We close this gap with COMPASS, which turns empirical mobility scaling laws into a feedback signal that guides prompt construction. COMPASS starts from coarse, population-level adjustments driven by these scaling laws and progressively refines them into individual prompts, jointly satisfying multiple aggregate objectives while keeping individual trajectories realistic. Across two public datasets, COMPASS outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based simulators.

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

We study optimal learning rate (LR) schedules under the functional scaling law (FSL) framework (Li et al., 2025), which decomposes training dynamics into signal learning and noise forgetting. In power-law kernel regression, these two components are governed by a source exponent $s>0$ and a capacity exponent $q>1$, respectively, with smaller $s$ corresponding to harder tasks. For a fixed training horizon $N$, we characterize the schedules that minimize the final-step loss under a stability constraint and reveal a sharp phase transition. In the easy-task regime $s>1-1/q$, the optimal schedule follows power decay from the beginning of training; in the hard-task regime $s<1-1/q$, it becomes warmup-stable-decay (WSD)-like (Hu et al., 2024), staying at the largest admissible LR for most of training before a final decay. In both regimes, the decay exponent is $2q-1$: task difficulty determines when to decay, while model capacity determines how to decay. Beyond the exact optimum, we study fractional schedules, whose shape is defined over relative training progress. We show that precise tuning of the decay shape is often unnecessary: a broad class of profiles attains the optimal convergence rate, while overly slow terminal decay leads to schedule-induced capacity saturation. Finally, for one-pass SGD in kernel regression, FSL-motivated power-decay schedules achieve optimal last-iterate rates. Experiments support the theoretical predictions and the task-dependent transition between early and delayed decay.

Relational Foundation Models (RFMs) facilitate data-driven decision-making by learning from complex multi-table databases. However, the diverse relational databases needed to train such models are rarely public due to privacy constraints. While there are methods to generate synthetic tabular data of arbitrary size, incorporating schema structure and primary-foreign key connectivity for multi-table generation remains challenging. Here we introduce PLUREL, a framework to synthesize multi-tabular relational databases from scratch. In a step-by-step fashion, PLUREL models (1) schemas with directed graphs, (2) inter-table primary-foreign key connectivity with bipartite graphs, and, (3) feature distributions in tables via conditional causal mechanisms. The design space across these stages supports the synthesis of a wide range of diverse databases, while being computationally lightweight. Using PLUREL, we observe for the first time that (1) RFM pretraining loss exhibits power-law scaling with the number of synthetic databases and total pretraining tokens, (2) scaling the number of synthetic databases improves generalization to real databases, and (3) synthetic pretraining yields strong base models for continued pretraining on real databases. Overall, our framework and results position synthetic data scaling as a promising paradigm for RFMs.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities in tasks such as algorithmic coding and mathematical problem-solving. Recent methods have improved reasoning through expanded corpus and multistage training combining reinforcement learning and supervised fine-tuning. Although some methods suggest that small but targeted dataset can incentivize reasoning via only distillation, a reasoning scaling laws is still taking shape, increasing computational costs. To address this, we propose a data-efficient distillation framework (DED) that optimizes the Pareto frontier of reasoning distillation. Inspired by the on-policy learning and diverse roll-out strategies of reinforcement learning, the key idea of our approach is threefold: (1) We identify that benchmark scores alone do not determine an effective teacher model. Through comprehensive comparisons of leading reasoning LLMs, we develop a method to select an optimal teacher model. (2) While scaling distillation can enhance reasoning, it often degrades out-of-domain performance. A carefully curated, smaller corpus achieves a balanced trade-off between in-domain and out-of-domain capabilities. (3) Diverse reasoning trajectories encourage the student model to develop robust reasoning skills. We validate our method through evaluations on mathematical reasoning (AIME 2024/2025, MATH-500) and code generation (LiveCodeBench), achieving state-of-the-art results with only 0.8k carefully curated examples, bypassing the need for extensive scaling. Our systematic analysis demonstrates that DED outperforms existing methods by considering factors beyond superficial hardness, token length, or teacher model capability. This work offers a practical and efficient pathway to advanced reasoning while preserving general capabilities.

Tensorizing a neural network involves reshaping some or all of its dense weight matrices into higher-order tensors and approximating them using low-rank tensor network decompositions. This technique has shown promise as a model compression strategy for large-scale neural networks. However, despite encouraging empirical results, tensorized neural networks (TNNs) remain underutilized in mainstream deep learning. In this position paper, we offer a perspective on both the potential and current limitations of TNNs. We argue that TNNs represent a powerful yet underexplored framework for deep learning--one that deserves greater attention from both engineering and theoretical communities. Beyond compression, we highlight the value of TNNs as a flexible class of architectures with distinctive scaling properties and increased interpretability. A central feature of TNNs is the presence of bond indices, which introduce new latent spaces not found in conventional networks. These internal representations may provide deeper insight into the evolution of features across layers, potentially advancing the goals of mechanistic interpretability. We conclude by outlining several key research directions aimed at overcoming the practical barriers to scaling and adopting TNNs in modern deep learning workflows.

Data scaling has revolutionized fields like natural language processing and computer vision, providing models with remarkable generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate whether similar data scaling laws exist in robotics, particularly in robotic manipulation, and whether appropriate data scaling can yield single-task robot policies that can be deployed zero-shot for any object within the same category in any environment. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on data scaling in imitation learning. By collecting data across numerous environments and objects, we study how a policy's generalization performance changes with the number of training environments, objects, and demonstrations. Throughout our research, we collect over 40,000 demonstrations and execute more than 15,000 real-world robot rollouts under a rigorous evaluation protocol. Our findings reveal several intriguing results: the generalization performance of the policy follows a roughly power-law relationship with the number of environments and objects. The diversity of environments and objects is far more important than the absolute number of demonstrations; once the number of demonstrations per environment or object reaches a certain threshold, additional demonstrations have minimal effect. Based on these insights, we propose an efficient data collection strategy. With four data collectors working for one afternoon, we collect sufficient data to enable the policies for two tasks to achieve approximately 90% success rates in novel environments with unseen objects.

Scaling factors in residual branches have emerged as a prevalent method for boosting neural network performance, especially in normalization-free architectures. While prior work has primarily examined scaling effects from an optimization perspective, this paper investigates their role in residual architectures through the lens of generalization theory. Specifically, we establish that wide residual networks (ResNets) with constant scaling factors become asymptotically unlearnable as depth increases. In contrast, when the scaling factor exhibits rapid depth-wise decay combined with early stopping, over-parameterized ResNets achieve minimax-optimal generalization rates. To establish this, we demonstrate that the generalization capability of wide ResNets can be approximated by kernel regression associated with the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK). Our theoretical findings are validated through experiments on synthetic data and real-world classification tasks, including MNIST and CIFAR-100.

Several explicit stochastic processes are known to satisfy Hilberg's law, a power-law growth of block entropy conjectured for natural language and recently connected to the neural scaling law. Existing examples either possess a positive Shannon entropy rate, are non-ergodic, or require comparatively involved constructions. We introduce multiperiodic processes, a new class of stationary ergodic processes over the natural numbers generated by random shifts of deterministic multiperiodic sequences. Under mild conditions, multiperiodic processes have vanishing Shannon entropy rate and, under a suitable parameterization, they satisfy both Zipf's law for symbol frequencies and Hilberg's law for block entropy. Since multiperiodic processes are not mixing, we identify the open problem of constructing an elementary strongly mixing source with vanishing entropy rate and Hilberg's law.

Looped Transformers increase effective depth by iterating a shared block of layers, but most evaluations compare at fixed model size, conflating architectural advantage with extra FLOPs. We study looping on Mixture-of-Experts Transformers while closely matching per-token FLOPs, total non-embedding parameters, and KV cache. Through a series of ablations, we arrive at a recipe we call SMELT (Sparse MoE Transformer, middle layers Loop Twice), which loops the middle half of layers twice while matching the unlooped Baseline on all three budgets. We scale SMELT across four sizes up to 54B non-embedding parameters and fit a separate Chinchilla-style scaling law for each architecture. SMELT's loss drops faster with compute, saving 6.8--18.0% of training FLOPs on the compute-optimal frontier. The advantage transfers to downstream benchmarks beyond what validation loss predicts, is largest on Code, and grows with sample length and the number of in-context examples. Mechanistic analysis shows that the second visit reduces the attention sink and redirects mass toward content-relevant tokens, an inductive bias that may underlie the observed performance gains. These results show that looping can improve Transformers even under budget matching, offering a practical recipe that turns depth reuse into measurable gains.

Metric questions about video require vision-language models to use supplied real-world references to convert visual measurements into physical units. Yet we find that current models use this scale information only partially. When every world-space quantity in a prompt is rescaled by a common factor, the video remains equally valid and the correct answer changes by exactly that factor, but model predictions move only part of the way and accuracy remains concentrated near the familiar scale of the depicted objects. Across eight vision-language models, this under-response persists over four orders of magnitude. The same models recover the correct closed-form scaling laws when the identical physics is asked in a scale-free form, indicating that the main deficit lies in metric grounding rather than physical mechanism knowledge. We use this exact scaling relation as supervision without requiring metric annotations. Under a common rescaling of the supplied world-space quantities, the correct metric answer must change by the same factor. EquiSD exploits this constraint by projecting a model's own prediction onto the scale-equivariant family and fine-tuning the model on the resulting targets. It requires no ground-truth answers and only one model query per training video. On held-out simulated videos, EquiSD increases a 3B model's median response slope from 0.66 to 0.94 and improves mean relative accuracy by 9.2 points across scales. The learned relation generalizes to unseen world scales and transfers without adaptation to real QuantiPhy videos, where accuracy increases by 6.4 points. These results show that an exact physical symmetry can provide label-free supervision for improving metric grounding in vision-language models.