Sequential Decision Making

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5 papers in the last four weeks, down 29% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation
Jun 30, 2026Jiachun Li, David Simchi-LeviCausal Effect Estimation Transformer
Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT
Uncertainty-Aware Sequential Decision Rules for Event-Triggered LLM Invocation in Streaming Systems
Jun 27, 2026Zhaohui WangSequential Decision Making Cost-Aware Inference
Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Asymptotically Optimal Learning for Parametric Prophet Inequalities
Jun 25, 2026Jung-hun Kim, Anna Grebennikova, Vianney PerchetSequential Decision Making Optimal Stopping
FairPlay Team, CREST, ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris · UFR IM2AG, Université Grenoble Alpes · Criteo AI Lab
MORL-A2C: Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning Reranker for Optimizing Healthiness in MOPI-HFRS
Jun 22, 2026Aarya Vasantlal, Joshua Zolla, Chuxu ZhangMulti-Objective Reinforcement Learning Sequential Decision Making
University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
AdaReP:Adaptive Re-Planning under Model Mismatch for Neural World-Model Predictive Control
Jun 22, 2026Yutian Cheng, Xiaojian Ma, Xianhao Wang +6World Models for Robotics Sequential Decision Making
Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence (BIGAI) · University of Science and Technology of China
Beyond the Current Observation: Evaluating Multimodal Large Language Models in Controllable Non-Markov Games
Jun 17, 2026Shengyuan Ding, Xilin Wei, Xinyu Fang +4Multimodal Memory Sequential Decision Making
1Fudan University · 2Shanghai Innovation Institute · 3Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory +2
Fair Online Resource Allocation
Jun 17, 2026Christopher En, Yuri Faenza, Andrea Lodi +1Sequential Decision Making Fair Resource Allocation
Columbia University, IEOR Department · Cornell Tech · Universidad de Chile
Continuous-time Optimal Stopping through Deep Reinforcement Learning
Jun 16, 2026Cosmin Borsa, Michael LudkovskiQuantitative Finance Sequential Decision Making
Department of Statistics & Applied Probability, UC Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3110, USA
When Should a Robot Replan? Regret-Guided Update Scheduling in Time-Varying MDPs
Jun 15, 2026Negin Musavi, Gokul Puthumanaillam, Ruben Hernandez +2Non-Stationary RL Robot Policy Adaptation
Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA
Trading Utility for Dynamic Fairness in Multiple Resource Division with Sequential Demand
Jun 9, 2026Kaiqi Jiang, Karim El Husseini, Wenzhe Fan +1Sequential Decision Making Fair Resource Allocation
Computer Science Dept., University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising
Jun 8, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardSequential Decision Making Online Advertising
Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA
Multi-Armed Bandits with Arriving Arms: Sequential Screening, Dynamic Regret, and Sublinear Guarantees
Jun 8, 2026Deqi Zheng, Xiaoyang Xu, Yuhong YangMulti-Armed Bandits Dynamic Regret Minimization
Qiuzhen College, Tsinghua University · Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University
Cross-Epoch Adaptive Rollout Optimization for RL Post-Training
Jun 4, 2026Yiming Zong, Yige Wang, Jiashuo JiangSequential Decision Making RL for Language Model Reasoning
Department of Industrial Engineering & Decision Analytics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making
Jun 2, 2026Keigo Sakurai, Takahiro Ogawa, Miki Haseyama +2Quantitative Finance Sequential Decision Making
Hokkaido University · Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd. · Kobe University +1
Two-Fidelity Best-Action Identification for Stochastic Minimax Tree
Jun 1, 2026Peter Chen, Xi ChenMulti-Fidelity Optimization Multi-Armed Bandits
Department of Mathematics Columbia University · Stern School of Business New York University
Interaction-Limited Safe Continuous-Time RL for Dynamical Medical Treatment
May 31, 2026Xun Shen, Yuepeng Wang, Akifumi Wachi +13Reinforcement Learning Sequential Decision Making
Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology · LY Corporation · National University of Singapore +6
A Lecture Note on Offline RL and IRL, Part II: Foundations of Inverse Reinforcement Learning and Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
May 29, 2026Enoch Hyunwook KangReinforcement Learning Sequential Decision Making
University of Washington, Foster School of Business
Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling
May 27, 2026Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan DriesenSequential Decision Making Time Series Forecasting
ESAT-Electa KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, 3001, Belgium
Human Decision-Making with AI Assistance under Correlated Features
May 27, 2026Yanru Guan, Naveen Raman, Fei FangAI-Assisted Decision Making Exploration-Exploitation Tradeoff
Carnegie Mellon University
Balancing Plasticity and Stability with Fast and Slow Successor Features
May 25, 2026Raymond Chua, Doina Precup, Blake RichardsStability-Plasticity Dilemma Non-Stationary RL
School of Computer Science, McGill University, Montr´eal, Canada · Mila - Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute, Montr´eal, QC, Canada · CIFAR Learning in Machines and Brains +3
FAST-ME: Foundation-aware Adaptive Stopping for Motion Estimation for Efficient IoT Video Analysis
May 22, 2026Kakia Panagidi, Stathes HadjieftymiadisSequential Decision Making Optimal Stopping
Department of Informatics & Telecommunications National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens, Greece
The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor
May 21, 2026Franziska Eberle, Alexander LindermayrSequential Decision Making Optimal Stopping
Institut für Mathematik, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany.
When to Switch, Not Just What: Transition Quality Prediction in Clash Royale
May 21, 2026Heeyun Heo, Huy Kang KimSequential Decision Making
School of Cybersecurity Korea University Seoul, Republic of Korea
Zero-shot adaptation to order book dynamics
May 20, 2026Arip AsadulaevSequential Decision Making Stochastic Optimal Control
D $^3$ -Subsidy: Online and Sequential Driver Subsidy Decision-Making for Large-Scale Ride-Hailing Market
May 19, 2026Taijie Chen, Rui Su, Siyuan Feng +6Diffusion-Based Planning Sequential Decision Making
University of Hong Kong · Harbin Institute of Technology · Hong Kong Polytechnic University +1
Learning to Hand Off: Provably Convergent Workflow Learning under Interface Constraints
May 18, 2026Jiayu Li, Enpei Zhang, Dawei Zhou +2Sequential MARL Sequential Decision Making
Stern School of Business · New York University · Department of Computer Science +2
Delay-Adaptive Speculation Control for Low-Latency Edge-Cloud LLM Inference
May 17, 2026Kangkang Sun, Jianhua Li, Xiuzhen Chen +2Sequential Decision Making Optimal Stopping
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Integrated Administration Technologies for Information Security, School of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China · School of Science and Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
Lifelong LaCAM with Local Guidance for Lifelong MAPF
May 16, 2026Tomoki Arita, Keisuke OkumuraSequential Decision Making Robust MAPF
Keio University, Japan · National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Japan
Boundedly Rational Meta-Learning in Sequential Consumer Choice
May 15, 2026Mehrzad Khosravi, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Hema YoganarasimhanMeta-Learning Sequential Decision Making
University of Washington
Adaptive mine planning under geological uncertainty: A POMDP framework for sequential decision-making
May 13, 2026Hamza Khalifi, Jef Caers, Yassine Taha +2Sequential Decision Making Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes
Geology & Sustainable Mining Institute (GSMI), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (UM6P), 43150, Benguerir, Morocco · Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

Jun 30, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation

Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi

Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT

Causal Effect Estimation Transformer Amortized Inference Sequential Decision Making In-Context Learning Bayesian Experimental Design

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Adaptive experiments for average treatment effects (ATE) require randomized allocations balancing valid inference with statistical efficiency. The oracle design is a covariate-dependent Neyman rule governed by unknown arm-conditional outcome variances. We investigate whether this sequential variance-estimation and allocation process can be amortized via in-context learning. We introduce Bayesian in-context experimenters: transformer policies trained to imitate a Bayesian posterior Neyman teacher. The teacher updates nonparametric beliefs over potential outcomes using experimental history to assign posterior Neyman treatment probabilities. This design converges to the oracle rule, supporting efficient ATE inference. Transformers constructively implement this mapping through attention-based sufficient statistics and projected gradient descent, imitating Bayesian updating for Gaussian-series priors. To address unknown outcome smoothness, we combine smoothness-indexed experimenters using a mixture-of-experts transformer. The gate acts as a hierarchical posterior over smoothness classes, concentrating on near-oracle experts. By bounding the complexity of the transformer class, we prove this amortized policy can be learned via empirical risk minimization using supervised pretraining. Experiments confirm accurate teacher imitation, adaptive allocation, and improved ATE precision over baselines.

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