Survival Analysis

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Survival analysis estimates when an event may occur and how risk changes over time, even when follow-up ends before the event is observed. Methods range from Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox and accelerated failure-time models to random survival forests, neural hazard models, and newer in-context models pretrained on synthetic data. Current work applies these tools to longitudinal, multimodal, and clinical data, including competing risks, personalized treatment decisions, and causal effects. A central challenge is ensuring predictions are not only good at ranking risk but also calibrated, fair, and reliable when censoring or data distributions differ across settings.

Latest papers

106 papers14 papers in the last four weeks, up 250% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data
Jun 1, 2026Xiaohui Yin, Avijit Mitra, Ying Zhou +2Causal Effect Estimation Survival Analysis
University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts, USA · University of Massachusetts Lowell Lowell, Massachusetts, USA
Evolving Features vs Evolving Entire Trees with GP for Interpretable Survival Analysis
May 28, 2026Thalea Schlender, Peter A. N. Bosman, Tanja AlderliestenMulti-Objective Evolutionary Optimization Survival Analysis
Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands · Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Deep Optimal Individualized Treatment Rules for Bivariate Survival Outcomes via Adaptive Prediction-Powered Learning
May 28, 2026Kun Ren, Yifan Cui, Wen SuSurvival Analysis Clinical Decision-Making
Department of Biostatistics, City University of Hong Kong · Center for Data Science, Zhejiang University
Towards end-to-end LLM-based censoring-aware survival analysis
May 25, 2026Yishu Wei, Hexin Dong, Yi Lin +3Survival Analysis Mortality Prediction
Department of Population Health Science, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US · Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US
Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values and application to the PIONeeR biomarkers study for prediction of resistance to immunotherapy
May 24, 2026Mohamed Boussena, Florence Monville, Jacques Fieschi-Meric +8Missing-Modality Learning Cancer Survival Prediction
Inria – Inserm team COMPO, COMPutational pharmacology and clinical Oncology, Centre Inria Sophia Antipolis - M´editerran´ee, Centre de Recherches en Canc´erologie de Marseille, Inserm U1068, CNRS UMR7258, Institut Paoli-Calmettes, Pharmacy faculty, Aix-Marseille University · Veracyte SAS, Marseille, France · Assistance Publique-Hˆopitaux de Marseille (APHM), Marseille, France +4
KAPLAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Prognostic Learnable Activation Networks for Survival Analysis
May 21, 2026Stelios Boulitsakis Logothetis, Angela Wood, Pietro LiòSurvival Analysis Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
University of Cambridge
FederatedRSF : Federated Random Survival Forests for Partially Overlapping Medical Data
May 21, 2026Maryam Moradpour, Jonas Harriehausen, Amirreza Aleyasin +3Federated Learning Aggregation Cancer Survival Prediction
Institute for Predictive Deep Learning in Medicine and Healthcare, Justus Liebig University Gießen, Germany · Hessian Center for Artificial Intelligence (hessian.AI), Darmstadt, Germany · Department of Medical Informatics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Germany +1
SDPM: Survival Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Continuous-Time Survival Analysis
May 21, 2026Stanislav R. Kirpichenko, Andrei V. Konstantinov, Lev V. UtkinSurvival Analysis Conditional Diffusion Models
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University
HDMoE: A Hierarchical Decoupling-Fusion Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Multimodal Cancer Survival Prediction
May 20, 2026Huayi Wang, Haochao Ying, Yuyang Xu +5Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis
Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China · Xinjiang University Urumqi, China · Hangzhou City University Hangzhou, China +1
Adaptive Experimentation for Censored Survival Outcomes
May 18, 2026Yuxin Wang, Dennis Frauen, Jonas Schweisthal +3Causal Effect Estimation Survival Analysis
LMU Munich Munich Center of Machine Learning (MCML)
Isotonic Survival Regression: Calibrated Survival Distributions from Deep Cox Models
May 15, 2026Anchit Jain, Kevin Zhang, Stephen BatesPost-Hoc Calibration Survival Analysis
EECS, MIT, Cambridge MA, USA.
A Scalable Nonparametric Continuous-Time Survival Model through Numerical Quadrature
May 15, 2026Chaeyeon Lee, Sehwan Kim, Hyungrok DoNumerical Integration Survival Analysis
Department of Statistics · Ewha Womans University · Seoul, Korea +3
SurvivalPFN: Amortizing Survival Prediction via In-Context Bayesian Inference
May 15, 2026Shi-ang Qi, Vahid Balazadeh, Michael Cooper +2Amortized Inference Survival Analysis
Vector Institute · University of Toronto · University of Alberta +1
Attention-Based Multimodal Survival Prediction with Cross-Modal Bilinear Fusion
May 12, 2026Hassan Keshvarikhojasteh, Josien P. W. Pluim, Mitko VetaRepresentation Learning Cancer Survival Prediction
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Causal Fairness for Survival Analysis
May 12, 2026Drago PleckoCausal Mediation Analysis Survival Analysis
Department of Statistics & Data Science UCLA
Spend Where It Counts: Dynamic Budget Allocation for Multi-Turn LLM Evaluation
May 7, 2026Shai Feldman, Yaniv RomanoLLM Evaluation Language Model Safety Evaluation
Department of Computer Science, Technion IIT, Israel · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Technion IIT, Israel
TabSurv: Adapting Modern Tabular Neural Networks to Survival Analysis
May 5, 2026Stanislav Kirpichenko, Andrei Konstantinov, Lev UtkinSurvival Analysis Deep Ensembles
Higher School of Artificial Intelligence Technologies, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia
PROMISE-AD: Progression-aware Multi-horizon Survival Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Progression and Dynamic Tracking
Apr 30, 2026Qing Lyu, Jeremy Hudson, Mohammad Kawas +3Alzheimer's Disease Survival Analysis
Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510 USA · Department of Radiology Oncology, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC 27157 USA · Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics and Department of Computer Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA
Benchmarking Pathology Foundation Models for Breast Cancer Survival Prediction
Apr 27, 2026Fredrik K. Gustafsson, Constance Boissin, Johan Vallon-Christersson +2Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden · Division of Oncology, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden · Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK +1
Heterogeneous Variational Inference for Markov Degradation Hazard Models: Discretized Mixture with Interpretable Clusters
Apr 27, 2026Takato YasunoLatent Variable Models Markov Models
Digital Business Department, Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd.
PathMoG: A Pathway-Centric Modular Graph Neural Network for Multi-Omics Survival Prediction
Apr 27, 2026Di Wang, Chupei Tang, Junxiao Kong +3Survival Analysis Graph Neural Networks
1Cuiying Honors College, Lanzhou University, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, China and Shanghai Innovation Institute +1
Online Survival Analysis: A Bandit Approach under Cox PH Model
Apr 22, 2026Yang Xu, Wenbin Lu, Rui SongMulti-Armed Bandits Survival Analysis
Department of Statistics · North Carolina State University
Observing the unobserved confounding through its effects: toward randomized trial-like estimates from real-world survival data
Apr 13, 2026Vasiliki Stoumpou, Dimitris Bertsimas, Samuel Singer +1Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding Causal Effect Estimation
Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA +1
Investigating Trustworthiness of Nonparametric Deep Survival Models for Alzheimer's Disease Progression Analysis
Apr 10, 2026Jacob Thrasher, Kaitlyn Heintzelman, Peter Martone +4Alzheimer's Disease Progression Prediction Algorithmic Fairness
West Virginia University Morgantown, USA · University of Aberdeen Aberdeen, Scotland
An Auditable Policy-Simulation Framework for Student Dropout in Intervention-Free Data
Apr 10, 2026Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory LongoEducational Data Mining Survival Analysis
Applied Data Science Program, Eastern University, St. Davids, PA, USA.
A Unified Survival Benchmark for Temporal Dropout Risk Prediction in Learning Analytics
Apr 10, 2026Rafael da Silva, Jeff Eicher, Gregory LongoEducational Data Mining Survival Analysis
Applied Data Science Program, Eastern University, St. Davids, PA, USA.
Time-driven Survival Analysis from FDG-PET/CT in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
Apr 8, 2026Sambit Tarai, Ashish Chauhan, Elin Lundström +5Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis
Radiology, Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SE-75185, Sweden · Molecular Imaging and Medical Physics, Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SE-75185, Sweden · Antaros Medical, Mölndal, SE-43153, Sweden
Good Rankings, Wrong Probabilities: A Calibration Audit of Multimodal Cancer Survival Models
Apr 5, 2026Sajad GhawamiCancer Survival Prediction Multimodal Survival Analysis
Independent Researcher
Nonparametric Regression Discontinuity Designs with Survival Outcomes
Apr 3, 2026Maximilian Schuessler, Erik Sverdrup, Robert Tibshirani +1Causal Effect Estimation Survival Analysis
Survival In-Context: Amortized Bayesian Survival Analysis via Prior-Fitted Networks
Mar 31, 2026Dmitrii Seletkov, Paul Hager, Georgios Kaissis +3Survival Analysis Prior-Data Fitted Networks
Institute of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Technical University of Munich, Germany · Chair for AI in Healthcare and Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Germany · Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Engineering, University of Potsdam, Germany +3

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Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data

Xiaohui Yin, Avijit Mitra, Ying Zhou, Kun Chen+1

University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, Massachusetts, USA · University of Massachusetts Lowell Lowell, Massachusetts, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Survival Analysis Longitudinal EHR Modeling Rare-Event Estimation

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Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes in large observational studies is computationally demanding, particularly when outcomes are rare. While g-formula-based methods such as the iterative conditional expectation (ICE) estimator provide a principled framework for longitudinal causal inference, they become computationally expensive, especially when bootstrap-based variance estimation is required. In addition, outcome rarity at each time point induces severe class imbalance, leading to instability and convergence issues in logistic regression and related models. To address these challenges, we propose a principled subsampling and reweighting strategy for longitudinal survival data that can be applied to a range of existing causal effect estimators in this setting, including the ICE estimator. The proposed method substantially reduces computational burden while preserving consistency and improving estimation stability in rare-outcome settings. We evaluate the method through simulations and validate it using a large-scale EHR cohort study on social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) and suicide risk, demonstrating its effectiveness for modeling rare outcomes in longitudinal data.