Variance Reduction

Accurate Zeroth-Order (ZO) Hessian estimation is a cornerstone of derivative-free methods, essential for tasks such as bilevel optimization, Bayesian inference, and uncertainty quantification. However, obtaining a complete suite of low-variance estimators for the Hessian and its inverse in high-dimensional settings remains a significant challenge. To address this, we propose a unified framework that reinterprets ZO Hessian approximation through the lens of single-step Policy Optimization (PO). This perspective establishes a theoretical equivalence between general ZO Hessian estimators and the Hessian of a smoothed PO objective, unifying distinct classical randomized estimators as specific instances of baseline selection. Building on this foundation, we introduce ZoVH, a comprehensive suite of variance-reduced estimators for the full Hessian matrix, its regularized inverse, and the bias-corrected inverse Hessian-gradient product. ZoVH leverages two key techniques: (1) a unique optimal baseline derived to provably minimize variance, and (2) a query reuse strategy that incorporates historical function queries to enhance sample efficiency without inflating costs. Our rigorous theoretical analysis confirms the unbiasedness of the Hessian estimator, validates the variance optimality of our baseline, provides error bounds for the entire ZoVH suite, and establishes convergence guarantees for the resulting curvature-aware ZO algorithm. Extensive empirical results validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that ZoVH achieves superior estimation accuracy and convergence performance in real-world applications. Code is available at https://github.com/Qjbtiger/ZoVH

Sampling from high-dimensional, non-log-concave distributions with unnormalized densities remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning, particularly in black-box settings where gradient information is inaccessible or computationally prohibitive. While Langevin dynamics provides a principled framework for sampling when gradients are accessible, its extension to the black-box settings suffers from high variance and lacks non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for non-log-concave sampling. To address these limitations, we propose a variance-reduced zeroth-order Langevin sampling method. Our method employs a gradient estimator that substantially reduces the variance of the classical batched zeroth-order estimator and eliminates the unfavorable dimensional dependence of the batch size required for accurate estimation, enabling practical and stable sampling. We establish the first non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for zeroth-order non-log-concave sampling in terms of $\varepsilon$-relative Fisher information, and, under a Poincaré inequality assumption, squared total variation distance. We further propose ZO-APMC, a posterior sampling algorithm for black-box inverse problems with pre-trained score-based generative priors, establishing the first non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for such methods. We validate our theory through synthetic experiments and demonstrate strong empirical performance on practical linear and nonlinear inverse problems.

Variance reduction (VR) methods employ stochastic gradients with decreasing variance, and they have been widely applied to solve large-scale optimization problems in machine learning because of their efficiency. Existing theoretical studies of VR methods are mainly focused on the convergence analysis, leaving the generalization behavior largely unexplored. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing the first non-vacuous generalization analysis of the representative VR method: Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient (SVRG), through the lens of algorithmic stability. In particular, we establish sharp stability bounds of the SVRG in both convex and strongly convex settings by exploiting its algorithmic structure. The obtained bounds are data-dependent, because the training errors are incorporated along the trajectory. Our analysis clarifies the interplay between optimization and generalization, leading to optimal excess population risk bounds in both settings. Our approach differs substantially from existing analyses of stochastic algorithms in the sense that we decompose the SVRG update as an SGD-like step plus a zero-mean correction term and then introduce novel Lyapunov functions to absorb the additional gradient terms induced by the reference points. Our analytical framework can be generalized to other VR methods, and we demonstrate the generalization by the well-known Stochastic Average Gradient Accelerated (SAGA) method.

We train a pair of autoregressive models to construct zero-mean control variates to mitigate the sign problem in quantum Monte Carlo simulations. The two autoregressive networks are confined to the positive- and negative-sign sectors with strictly disjoint support, and each is exactly normalized over its sector. Their difference is therefore structurally zero-mean, providing an unbiased auxiliary observable whose correlation with the sign estimator controls the variance reduction. We implement the method within the stochastic series expansion framework, which we extend to frustrated lattices by developing an incremental loop-topology update. Sign-ergodic sampling is achieved through a twist channel, which is the unique sign-changing mechanism on non-bipartite lattices. We implement the control variates as autoregressive transformers with an end-of-sequence parity mask that enforces exact sign-sector resolution, while the incremental loop-count change and cumulative frustration parity are incorporated as topological features. On the triangular-lattice Heisenberg antiferromagnet, we benchmark the method in the small-$N$ limit. The control variate reduces the standard error of the average sign by up to an order of magnitude and that of the energy estimator by a factor of three to five, remaining effective even when the average sign drops below $10^{-3}$. This work lays out the framework and provides a proof-of-principle demonstration that autoregressive control variates can effectively mitigate the sign problem. Scaling to larger systems with physics-informed architectures is the subject of future work.

Bandit convex optimization (BCO) is a fundamental online learning framework with partial feedback, where the learner observes only the loss incurred at the chosen decision point in each round. In this work, we investigate whether optimistic gradient predictions can improve worst-case regret guarantees in a prediction-adaptive manner. Specifically, given gradient predictions $m_t$, we seek regret bounds that scale with the cumulative prediction error $S_T=\sum_{t=1}^T \|\nabla f_t(x_t)-m_t\|^2.$ We first establish a negative result: under the single-point feedback protocol, an unavoidable $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ regret lower bound persists even when $S_T=o(T)$, showing that the variance of gradient estimation fundamentally obscures the benefit of accurate predictions. To overcome this barrier, we propose Two-Point Variance-Reduced Optimistic Gradient Descent (TP-VR-OPT) for the two-point feedback setting. The key idea is a novel variance-reduced gradient estimator whose variance scales with the prediction error rather than the gradient norm. This yields a regret bound of $O\big(\sqrt{d\,\mathbb{E}[S_T]}\big),$ where $d$ is the decision dimension. Complementing this result, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound that scales as $Ω(\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[S_T]})$, providing a fundamental characterization of the best achievable prediction-adaptive regret and showing that TP-VR-OPT is optimal up to a factor of $\sqrt d$. We further develop adaptive variants that eliminate the need for prior knowledge of $\mathbb{E}[S_T]$ or the horizon $T$, and extend our framework to non-stationary environments, establishing dynamic regret guarantees that adapt simultaneously to the cumulative prediction error and the comparator path length.

Pretrained diffusion models serve as frozen teachers feeding downstream pipelines such as text-to-3D, single-step distillation, and data attribution. The teacher gradients these pipelines consume are Monte Carlo (MC) expectations over noise levels and Gaussian noise samples; their estimator variance dominates compute cost because each draw requires expensive upstream work (rendering, simulation, encoding). We introduce CARV, a compute-aware variance-accounting framework that motivates a hierarchical MC estimator: amortize the expensive upstream computation over cheap diffusion-noise resamples, sharpened by timestep importance sampling and a stratified-inverse-CDF construction. In our text-to-3D distillation and attribution experiments, CARV delivers 2-3x effective compute multipliers (most from amortized reuse; ~25% additional from IS+stratification) without changing the objective; in single-step distillation, the same techniques cut gradient variance by an order of magnitude but do not improve downstream FID, marking the regime where MC variance is no longer the bottleneck.

Competitive multi-agent reinforcement learning in imperfect-information games requires agents to act under partial observability and against adversarial opponents, necessitating stochastic policies. While self-play reinforcement learning with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) has achieved strong empirical success, its standard advantage estimator, generalized advantage estimation, suffers from additional variance due to the sampling of stochastic future actions. This variance is amplified in equilibrium self-play because of the stochastic nature of the equilibrium policy and persists even when the critic is exact. We address this bottleneck by introducing $Q$-boosting, a variance-reduced advantage estimator based on a centralized action-value critic, and propose Variance-Reduced Policy Optimization (VRPO), incorporating this new estimator. The algorithm replaces sampled multi-step backups with a multi-step Expected SARSA$(λ)$ trace, computing policy expectations at each step to average out action-sampling noise, while retaining PPO's clipped objective and on-policy actor updates. Empirically, VRPO consistently achieves strong performance from mid-sized to large-scale games including Dou Dizhu and Heads-Up No-Limit Texas Hold'em.

We develop a rigorous statistical theory of multi-head attention (MHA) as an ensemble of Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression estimators. Building on the algebraic identity between single-head softmax attention and the NW estimator, we prove that MHA is a structured ensemble of H NW estimators, each operating in a distinct learned projection subspace of the key space. We derive an explicit Bias-Variance-Covariance decomposition of the MHA mean squared error, showing that variance reduction depends not merely on the number of heads H but fundamentally on the decorrelation of head outputs. Decorrelation is governed by the principal angles between learned projection subspaces: orthogonal projections yield maximum variance reduction; aligned projections yield none. We introduce the Head Diversity Index (HDI), a computable spectral measure of inter-head decorrelation, and prove that MHA mean squared error is monotonically decreasing in HDI. This provides the first rigorous theoretical explanation for the empirically observed specialization of attention heads. Under a fixed total-dimension budget D = H * d_k, we solve the optimal head-dimension allocation problem, deriving the MSE-minimizing pair (H*, d_k*) from data distribution and regression smoothness. The solution yields a new architectural scaling law: the optimal per-head dimension grows logarithmically with training set size, while the optimal number of heads grows nearly linearly with the total budget D. Our framework unifies three strands of prior work: the NW theory of single-head attention, the general weighting theory for ensemble learning, and the decorrelation-variance-reduction isomorphism between biological and computational ensembles. Multi-head attention is the Transformer's instantiation of a universal principle: identical agents plus diversity-enforcing mechanisms yields emergent optimality.

Hard-thresholding is an important type of algorithm in machine learning that is used to solve $\ell_0$ constrained optimization problems. However, the true gradient of the objective function can be difficult to access in certain scenarios, which normally can be approximated by zeroth-order (ZO) methods. The SZOHT algorithm is the only algorithm tackling $\ell_0$ sparsity constraints with ZO gradients so far. Unfortunately, SZOHT has a notable limitation on the number of random directions % in ZO gradients due to the inherent conflict between the deviation of ZO gradients and the expansivity of the hard-thresholding operator. This paper approaches this problem by considering the role of variance and provides a new insight into variance reduction: mitigating the unique conflicts between ZO gradients and hard-thresholding. Under this perspective, we propose a generalized variance reduced ZO hard-thresholding algorithm as well as the generalized convergence analysis under standard assumptions. The theoretical results demonstrate the new algorithm eliminates the restrictions on the number of random directions, leading to improved convergence rates and broader applicability compared with SZOHT. Finally, we illustrate the utility of our method on a ridge regression problem as well as black-box adversarial attacks.

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly successful, their analyses are largely estimator-specific and expectation-based, obscuring the structural tradeoffs that determine reliability. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for stochastic variance-reduced estimation based on a recursion with three components: memory retention, reset probability, and a correction term for iterate movement. This framework recovers several classical estimators, motivates new second-order variants, and yields a bias-variance decomposition of estimation error. Our main result is a unified high-probability bound proved using a new dimension-free vector-valued Freedman inequality, valid for smooth normed spaces involving random sums of vector martingales. The result applies in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings, including the analysis of mirror-descent-based methods in Banach spaces. As applications, we obtain high-probability oracle complexities for unconstrained optimization with mirror descent, establishing the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level. We also derive the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ oracle-complexity bounds for stochastic optimization with expectation constraints, improving upon the existing $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-4})$ complexity by leveraging variance-reduced estimation for the first time in this setting.

We study nonconvex stochastic optimization under the Blum-Gladyshev ($\mathsf{BG}$-0) noise model, where the stochastic gradient variance grows quadratically with the distance from the initialization. We consider this problem under both standard smoothness and the symmetric generalized-smoothness framework, which captures objectives whose local curvature can scale with the gradient norm. We prove that normalized stochastic gradient descent with momentum, using only one stochastic gradient per iteration, converges under $\mathsf{BG}$-0 noise with oracle complexity $O(\varepsilon^{-6})$. This rate holds both for standard smoothness and for $α$-symmetric generalized smoothness, showing that generalized smoothness is rate-neutral for normalized momentum in this setting. We then study a variance-reduced normalized STORM method. Under mean-square smoothness and sharp initialization, the method achieves the minimax optimal $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$ complexity, matching the lower bound. Under expected $α$-symmetric generalized smoothness, the STORM recursion couples gradient-dependent smoothness with distance-dependent noise, leading to complexity $O(\varepsilon^{-(4+α)})$ for $α\in(0,1)$ and $O(\varepsilon^{-5})$ for $α=1$. When the distance-growth parameter in the noise model vanishes, our guarantees recover the standard bounded-variance rates: $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$ for momentum, $O(\varepsilon^{-3})$ for variance reduction, and $O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ in the deterministic case. To our knowledge, these are the first convergence guarantees for normalized methods in non-convex stochastic optimization under $\mathsf{BG}$-0 noise without bounded domains, increasing batch sizes, or explicit anchoring, covering both standard and generalized smoothness regimes.

How should an agent's performance in a multiagent environment be evaluated when there is a limited sample size or a high cost of running a trial? The AIVAT family of variance reduction techniques was proposed to address this challenge by introducing unbiased low-variance estimators of agents' expected payoffs. An important component of AIVAT is a heuristic value function that discriminates between potentially low- and high-value counterfactual histories. A notable gap in the literature is that there is little to no constraint or guideline on how the heuristic value function should be chosen or how uncertainty in its output should be handled. In our first contribution, we parameterize the heuristic value function to highlight AIVAT's potential vulnerabilities: a) the sample variance can be set pathologically low by directly applying gradient descent on the sample variance, and b) one can p-hack to draw a desired statistical conclusion via gradient descent/ascent on the test statistic. The main takeaway is that the heuristic value function should be fixed prior to observing the evaluation data! In our second contribution, we show how the heuristic uncertainty can be propagated to quantify the uncertainty of AIVAT estimates. It is then possible to further reduce the variance using inverse-variance weighted averaging, but AIVAT's unbiasedness guarantee may have to be sacrificed. In our experiments, we use a dataset of 10,000 poker hands to demonstrate our heuristic pathology and uncertainty results, with the latter yielding a 43.0% reduction in the number of samples (poker hands) needed to draw statistical conclusions.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have emerged as a kernelized alternative to vanilla independent sampling for generating efficient minibatches, coresets and other parsimonious representations of large-scale datasets. While theoretical foundations and promising empirical performance have been demonstrated, there are two challenges for current proposals for DPP-based coresets or minibatches. The first is the need for families of DPPs with certain key variance reduction properties, usually constructed in a continuous setting, of which there are few known examples. The second is the need for an ad-hoc construction of a discrete DPP defined on a given dataset, that inherits such variance reduction. In this work, we contribute to the programme of establishing DPPs as a subsampling toolbox for ML by advancing on these two fronts. First, we propose new DPPs on the Euclidean space based on wavelets, with provably better accuracy guarantees than the best known rates. Second, we introduce a general method to convert such continuous DPPs, which are more amenable to proving analytical statements, into discrete kernels, which are pertinent for subsampling tasks such as minibatch and coreset constructions. This conversion mechanism simultaneously preserves the desired variance decay and reveals a low-rank decomposition of the discrete kernel, which makes sampling the corresponding DPP computationally inexpensive. En route, we enlarge the class of ML tasks amenable to improvements via DPP-based minibatches and coresets to include objective functions with arbitrarily low regularity, and rate guarantees that explicitly adapt to this regularity.

Image clustering aims to partition unlabeled image datasets into distinct groups. A core aspect of this task is constructing and leveraging prior knowledge to guide the clustering process. Recent approaches introduce semantic descriptions as prior information, most of which typically relying on matching-based techniques with predefined vocabularies. However, the limited matching space restricts their adaptability to downstream clustering tasks. Moreover, these methods primarily focus on reducing bias to improve performance, frequently overlooking the importance of variance reduction. To address these limitations, we propose GSEC (Image Clustering based on Generative Semantic Guidance and Bi-Layer Ensemble), a framework designed to reduce bias through generative semantic guidance and mitigate variance via ensemble learning. Our method employs Multimodal Large Language Models to generate semantic descriptions and derive image embeddings via weighted averaging. Additionally, a bi-layer ensemble strategy integrates cross-modal information through BatchEnsemble in the inner layer and aligns outputs via an alignment mechanism in the outer layer. Comparative experiments demonstrate that GSEC outperforms 18 state-of-the-art methods across six benchmark datasets, while further analysis confirms its effectiveness in simultaneously reducing both bias and variance. The code is available at https://github.com/2017LI/GSEC.git.

One-step generative modeling has emerged as a leading approach for amortizing the inference cost of diffusion and flow-matching models. Among distillation-free methods, MeanFlow training is notoriously unstable, with non-decreasing loss and unbounded gradient variance. In this work, we establish a theory that attributes this pathology to a misuse of the conditional velocity field. We show that the conditional velocity plays two distinct statistical roles in the loss: both as an unbiased regression target and as a Monte Carlo control variate in a Jacobi-vector product, with the original MeanFlow loss assigning the wrong coefficient to the latter. We derive the optimal coefficient in closed form and show that a family of fixes in concurrent works corresponds to different practical realizations of the same optimum. A controlled sweep of this coefficient on two-dimensional benchmarks and on a latent Diffusion Transformer recovers the predicted bias-variance ordering. Our DiT experiment also reveals a quantitative FID-MSE landscape mismatch. Specifically, although the gradient-MSE is minimized at an interior coefficient value near $β\!=\!0.94$, the coefficient that minimizes FID prefers to use conditional velocity directly at the unbiased corner. Our analysis therefore explains why MeanFlow is unstable and unifies its concurrent remedies, and shows that the variance-optimal coefficient need not coincide with the quality-optimal one.

Large-scale machine learning models are trained on clusters of machines that exhibit heterogeneous performance due to hardware variability, network delays, and system-level instabilities. In such environments, time complexity rather than iteration complexity becomes the relevant performance metric for optimization algorithms. Recent work by Tyurin and Richtárik (2023) established the first time complexity analysis for parallel first-order stochastic optimization, proposing Rennala SGD as a time-optimal method for smooth nonconvex optimization. However, Rennala SGD is fundamentally a modification of SGD, and variance reduction techniques are known to improve the iteration complexity of SGD. In this work, we investigate whether variance reduction can also improve time complexity in heterogeneous systems. We show that, under a mean-squared smoothness assumption, variance reduction can improve time complexity in relevant parameter regimes. To this end, we propose Rennala MVR, a variance-reduced extension of Rennala SGD based on momentum-based variance reduction, and analyze its oracle and time complexity. We establish lower bounds for time complexity under these assumptions. On a stochastic quadratic benchmark, experiments with the exact method support the theory, while neural-network experiments with a practical inexact variant show similar empirical gains over Rennala SGD.

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) has emerged as a dominant post-training paradigm for large language models, especially for reasoning domains. However, OPD remains unstable in practice due to the high gradient variance of its single-sample Monte Carlo estimator, and recipes for stable training are still immature. We propose vOPD (On-Policy Distillation with a control variate baseline), which casts OPD as policy-gradient RL and stabilizes it by introducing a control variate baseline-canonically a value function -- from the RL literature. We show that the OPD value function admits a closed form as the per-token negative reverse KL divergence between the student and the teacher, available directly from the already-computed forward pass with no additional critic or inference. Existing stabilization methods either compute the full token-level reverse KL over the entire vocabulary, adding significant overhead, or restrict it to a top-k support, biasing the objective. vOPD instead preserves the lightweight single-sample estimator, subtracting the value function as a detached baseline to keep the gradient unbiased while reducing variance. Furthermore, we show that a top-k approximation of the baseline further lowers cost without compromising performance. Across mathematical and scientific reasoning benchmarks, vOPD consistently outperforms vanilla OPD and matches the most expensive full-vocabulary baseline, offering an efficient stabilization of On-Policy Distillation through principled RL variance reduction.

Bayesian optimization is widely used for hyperparameter optimization when model evaluations are expensive; however, noisy acquisition estimates can lead to unstable decisions. We identify acquisition estimation noise as a failure mode that was previously overlooked: even when the surrogate model and acquisition target are correctly specified, finite-sample Monte Carlo error can perturb acquisition values. This can, in turn, flip candidate rankings and lead to suboptimal BO decisions. As a remedy, we aim at variance reduction and propose an orthogonal acquisition estimator that subtracts an optimally weighted score-function control variate, which yields an acquisition residual orthogonal to posterior score directions and which thus reduces Monte Carlo variance. We further introduce OrthoBO: a Bayesian optimization framework that combines our orthogonal acquisition estimator with ensemble surrogates and an outer log transformation. We show theoretically that our estimator preserves the target, leads to variance reduction, and improves pairwise ranking stability. We further verify the theoretical properties of OrthoBO through numerical experiments where our framework reduces acquisition estimation variance, stabilizes candidate rankings, and achieves strong performance. We also demonstrate the downstream utility of OrthoBO in hyperparameter optimization for neural network training and fine-tuning.

Domain shift remains a key challenge in deploying machine learning models to the real world. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims to address this by minimising domain discrepancy during training, but the discrepancy estimates suffer from high variance in stochastic settings, which can stifle the theoretical benefits of the method. This paper proposes Optimal Reordering of Data for Error-Reduced Estimation of Discrepancy (ORDERED), a novel unbiased stochastic variance reduction technique which reduces the discrepancy estimation error by optimising the order in which the training data are sampled. We consider two specific domain discrepancy losses (correlation alignment and the maximum mean discrepancy), formulate their stochastic estimation error as a function of the data sampling order, and propose a practical optimisation algorithm. Our simulations demonstrate reduced variance compared to related methods, and experiments on two domain shift image classification benchmarks show improved target domain accuracy.

Simulation-based planning with rollouts is a widely-deployed technique for decision making in stochastic environments. The primary instrument of simulation-based planning is a sampling model, which is repeatedly called to generate trajectories and estimate the utilities of available actions. Among the actions thus explored, one with the maximum estimated utility is then executed. In this paper, we examine the effect of using common random numbers in the simulation process. We obtain a simple recipe for (provably) reducing variance in relative utility when simulations invoke a rollout policy beyond some depth. Experiments on synthetic tasks confirm that our scheme improves task performance. The broader significance of our innovation is apparent from two practical applications: (1) single-step lookahead planning in a pension-disbursement task, and (2) a deployment of the well-known UCT algorithm for the game of Ludo.

Flow matching (FM) trains a time-dependent vector field that transports samples from a simple prior to a complex data distribution. However, for high-dimensional images, each training sample supervises only a single trajectory and intermediate point, yielding an extremely sparse and high-variance training signal. This under-constrained supervision can cause flow collapse, where the learned dynamics memorize specific source-target pairings, mapping diverse inputs to overly similar outputs, failing to generalize. We introduce Posterior-Augmented Flow Matching (PAFM), a theoretically grounded generalization of FM that replaces single-target supervision with an expectation over an approximate posterior of valid target completions for a given intermediate state and condition. PAFM factorizes this intractable posterior into (i) the likelihood of the intermediate under a hypothesized endpoint and (ii) the prior probability of that endpoint under the condition, and uses an importance sampling scheme to construct a mixture over multiple candidate targets. We prove that PAFM yields an unbiased estimator of the original FM objective while substantially reducing gradient variance during training by aggregating information from many plausible continuation trajectories per intermediate. Finally, we show that PAFM improves over FM by up to 3.4 FID50K across different model scales (SiT-B/2 and SiT-XL/2), different architectures (SiT and MMDiT), and in both class and text conditioned benchmarks (ImageNet and CC12M), with a negligible increase in the compute overhead. Code: https://github.com/gstoica27/PAFM.git.

History-dependent sampling can reduce long-run Monte Carlo variance by discouraging redundant revisits, but existing schemes typically encode history through empirical measure on finite state spaces, which is infeasible in high-dimensional discrete configuration spaces or ill-posed in continuous domains. We propose Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes trajectory history by a running average of score evaluations in $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $d$ is the dimension of the score and state representation. This history is converted into a surrogate target through an exponential score tilt, indexed with $α$ that represents the strength of repellence in controlling the magnitude of the history-based repulsion. The surrogate family is normalization-free in the standard MCMC sense, yielding a generic wrapper: at each iteration, any base kernel targeting $π$ can instead be run on the current surrogate $π_{θ_n}$ while the history is updated online. We analyze the coupled evolution of the history recursion and Monte Carlo estimators using stochastic approximation with controlled Markovian noise, establishing almost sure convergence and a joint central limit theorem. We further identify regimes in which the asymptotic covariance decreases as $α$ increases, with scaling $O(1/α)$, extending the near-zero-variance effect of finite-state history-dependent samplers to general state spaces with constant memory. Experiments on continuous targets and discrete energy-based models demonstrate improved estimator variance and mode coverage, while retaining $O(d)$ memory usage and modest per-iteration overhead.

The standard Monte Carlo estimator $\widehat{I}_N^{\mathrm{MC}}$ of $\int fdω$ relies on independent samples from $ω$ and has variance of order $1/N$. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive distribution, makes the estimator consistent, with variance rates that depend on how the DPP is adapted to $f$ and $ω$. We examine two existing DPP-based estimators: one by Bardenet & Hardy (2020) with a rate of $\mathcal{O}(N^{-(1+1/d)})$ for smooth $f$, but relying on a fixed DPP. The other, by Ermakov & Zolotukhin (1960), is unbiased with rate of order $1/N$, like Monte Carlo, but its DPP is tailored to $f$. We revisit these estimators, generalize them to continuous settings, and provide sampling algorithms.

In policy gradient reinforcement learning, access to a differentiable model enables 1st-order gradient estimation that accelerates learning compared to relying solely on derivative-free 0th-order estimators. However, discontinuous dynamics cause bias and undermine the effectiveness of 1st-order estimators. Prior work addressed this bias by constructing a confidence interval around the REINFORCE 0th-order gradient estimator and using these bounds to detect discontinuities. However, the REINFORCE estimator is notoriously noisy, and we find that this method requires task-specific hyperparameter tuning and has low sample efficiency. This paper asks whether such bias is the primary obstacle and what minimal fixes suffice. First, we re-examine standard discontinuous settings from prior work and introduce DDCG, a lightweight test that switches estimators in nonsmooth regions; with a single hyperparameter, DDCG achieves robust performance and remains reliable with small samples. Second, on differentiable robotics control tasks, we present IVW-H, a per-step inverse-variance implementation that stabilizes variance without explicit discontinuity detection and yields strong results. Together, these findings indicate that while estimator switching improves robustness in controlled studies, careful variance control often dominates in practical deployments.

Algorithms for the Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem play a central role in sequential decision-making and have been extensively explored both theoretically and numerically. While most classical approaches aim to identify the arm with the highest expected reward, we focus on a risk-aware setting where the goal is to select the arm with the lowest variance, favoring stability over potentially high but uncertain returns. To model the decision process, we consider a softmax parameterization of the policy; we propose a new algorithm to select the minimal variance (or minimal risk) arm and prove its convergence under natural conditions. The algorithm constructs an unbiased estimate of the objective by using two independent draws from the selected arm's distribution. We provide numerical experiments that illustrate the practical behavior of these algorithms and offer guidance on implementation choices. The setting also covers general risk-aware problems where there is a trade-off between maximizing the average reward and minimizing its variance.

The theory of Local Intrinsic Dimensionality (LID) has become a valuable tool for characterizing local complexity within and across data manifolds, supporting a range of data mining and machine learning tasks. Accurate LID estimation requires samples drawn from small neighborhoods around each query to avoid biases from nonlocal effects and potential manifold mixing, yet limited data within such neighborhoods tends to cause high estimation variance. As a variance reduction strategy, we propose an ensemble approach that uses subbagging to preserve the local distribution of nearest neighbor (NN) distances. The main challenge is that the uniform reduction in total sample size within each subsample increases the proximity threshold for finding a fixed number k of NNs around the query. As a result, in the specific context of LID estimation, the sampling rate has an additional, complex interplay with the neighborhood size, where both combined determine the sample size as well as the locality and resolution considered for estimation. We analyze both theoretically and experimentally how the choice of the sampling rate and the k-NN size used for LID estimation, alongside the ensemble size, affects performance, enabling informed prior selection of these hyper-parameters depending on application-based preferences. Our results indicate that within broad and well-characterized regions of the hyper-parameters space, using a bagged estimator will most often significantly reduce variance as well as the mean squared error when compared to the corresponding non-bagged baseline, with controllable impact on bias. We additionally propose and evaluate different ways of combining bagging with neighborhood smoothing for substantial further improvements on LID estimation performance.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for high-dimensional and high-order partial differential equations (PDEs) are primarily constrained by the $\mathcal{O}(d^k)$ spatial derivative complexity and the $\mathcal{O}(P)$ memory overhead of backpropagation (BP). While randomized spatial estimators successfully reduce the spatial complexity to $\mathcal{O}(1)$, their reliance on first-order optimization still leads to prohibitive memory consumption at scale. Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization offers a BP-free alternative; however, naively combining randomized spatial operators with ZO perturbations triggers a variance explosion of $\mathcal{O}(1/\varepsilon^2)$, leading to numerical divergence. To address these challenges, we propose the Stochastic Dimension-free Zeroth-order Estimator (SDZE), a unified framework that achieves dimension-independent complexity in both space and memory. Specifically, SDZE leverages Common Random Numbers Synchronization (CRNS) to algebraically cancel the $\mathcal{O}(1/\varepsilon^2)$ variance by locking spatial random seeds across perturbations. Furthermore, an implicit matrix-free subspace projection is introduced to reduce parameter exploration variance from $\mathcal{O}(P)$ to $\mathcal{O}(r)$ while maintaining an $\mathcal{O}(1)$ optimizer memory footprint. Empirical results demonstrate that SDZE enables the training of 10-million-dimensional PINNs on a single NVIDIA A100 GPU, delivering significant improvements in speed and memory efficiency over state-of-the-art baselines.

A celebrated method for Variational Inequalities (VIs) is Extragradient (EG), which can be viewed as a standard discrete-time integration scheme. With this view in mind, in this paper we show that EG may suffer from discretization bias when applied to non-linear vector fields, conservative or otherwise. To resolve this discretization shortcoming, we introduce RAndomized Mid-Point for debiAsed Gradient Extrapolation (RAMPAGE) and its variance-reduced counterpart, RAMPAGE+, which leverages antithetic sampling. In contrast with EG, both methods are unbiased. Furthermore, leveraging negative correlation, RAMPAGE+ acts as an unbiased, geometric path-integrator that completely removes internal first-order terms from the variance, provably improving upon RAMPAGE. We further demonstrate that both methods enjoy provable $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ convergence guarantees for a range of problems including root finding under co-coercive, co-hypomonotone, and generalized Lipschitzness regimes. Furthermore, we introduce symmetrically scaled variants to extend our results to constrained VIs. Finally, we provide convergence guarantees of both methods for stochastic and deterministic smooth convex-concave games. Somewhat interestingly, despite being a randomized method, RAMPAGE+ attains purely deterministic bounds for a number of the studied settings.

This paper develops new variance-reduction techniques for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method to solve a class of possibly nonmonotone stochastic composite inclusions. Unlike unbiased estimators such as mini-batching, developing stochastic biased variants faces a fundamental technical challenge and has not been utilized before for inclusions and fixed-point problems. We fill this gap by designing a new framework that can handle both unbiased and biased estimators. Our main idea is to construct stochastic variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction and use them to perform iterate updates. First, we propose a class of unbiased variance-reduced estimators and show that increasing mini-batch SGD, loopless-SVRG, and SAGA estimators fall within this class. For these unbiased estimators, we establish a $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ best-iterate convergence rate for the expected squared residual norm, together with almost-sure convergence of the iterate sequence to a solution. Consequently, we prove that the best oracle complexities for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings are $\mathcal{O}(n^{2/3}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-10/3})$, respectively, when employing loopless-SVRG or SAGA, where $ε$ is a desired accuracy. Second, we introduce a new class of biased variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction, which includes SARAH, Hybrid SGD, and Hybrid SVRG as special instances. While the convergence rates remain valid for these biased estimators, the resulting oracle complexities are $\mathcal{O}(n^{3/4}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-5})$ for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings, respectively. Finally, we conduct two numerical experiments on AUC optimization for imbalanced classification and policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.

Continuous and efficient experimentation is key to the practical success of user-facing applications on the web, both through online A/B-tests and off-policy evaluation. Despite their shared objective -- estimating the incremental value of a treatment -- these domains often operate in isolation, utilising distinct terminologies and statistical toolkits. This paper bridges that divide by establishing a formal equivalence between their canonical variance reduction methods. We prove that the standard online Difference-in-Means estimator is mathematically identical to an off-policy Inverse Propensity Scoring estimator equipped with an optimal (variance-minimising) additive control variate. Extending this unification, we demonstrate that widespread regression adjustment methods (such as CUPED, CUPAC, and ML-RATE) are structurally equivalent to Doubly Robust estimation. This unified view extends our understanding of commonly used approaches, and can guide practitioners and researchers working on either class of problems.