Weather Forecasting

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Overview

Weather forecasting estimates how atmospheric conditions will evolve to support decisions ranging from daily planning to severe-weather warnings. Numerical weather prediction solves physical equations, while machine-learning approaches use transformers, graph networks, state-space models, and generative methods trained on reanalysis, satellite, radar, or station observations; data assimilation combines observations with model states. Current work also develops probabilistic ensembles, short-range radar nowcasts, regional downscaling, and forecasts for events such as tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation. A central challenge is producing reliable long-range and extreme-event forecasts while preserving physical consistency, representing local detail, and validating performance against real observations rather than reanalysis alone.

Latest papers

CardsList

178 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 55% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Extending Precipitation Nowcasting Horizons via Spectral Fusion of Radar Observations and Foundation Model Priors

    Mar 23, 2026Yuze Qin, Qingyong Li, Zhiqing Guo +3Precipitation NowcastingWeather Forecasting

    Key Laboratory of Big Data & Artificial Intelligence in Transportation (Ministry of Education), Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China · CMA Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, Nanjing Innovation Institute for Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China

  2. Sonny: Breaking the Compute Wall in Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

    Mar 22, 2026Minjong CheonWeather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea

  3. Enhancing AI-Based Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting via Systematic Bias Correction

    Mar 20, 2026Peisong Niu, Haifan Zhang, Yang Zhao +6Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group Bellevue, USA

  4. Target Concept Tuning Improves Extreme Weather Forecasting

    Mar 17, 2026Shijie Ren, Xinyue Gu, Ziheng Peng +6Extreme Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, China

  5. Implementation of tangent linear and adjoint models for neural networks based on a compiler library tool

    Mar 17, 2026Sa Xiao, Hao Jing, Honglu Sun +1Weather ForecastingData Assimilation

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Beijing, China · CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC), Beijing, China

  6. FuXiWeather2: Learning accurate atmospheric state estimation for operational global weather forecasting

    Mar 16, 2026Xiaoze Xu, Xiuyu Sun, Songling Zhu +5Weather ForecastingData Assimilation

    Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science, Shanghai, & 200232, China. · Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai & 200433, China. · FuXi Intelligent Computing Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai & 200233, China.

  7. AGCD: Agent-Guided Cross-Modal Decoding for Weather Forecasting

    Mar 16, 2026Jing Wu, Yang Liu, Lin Zhang +13Weather Forecasting

    Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China · Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang, China +5

  8. Integrating Weather Foundation Model and Satellite to Enable Fine-Grained Solar Irradiance Forecasting

    Mar 16, 2026Ziqing Ma, Kai Ying, Xinyue Gu +7Solar Irradiance ForecastingSolar Power Forecasting

    DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China · College of Computer Science, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China · DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Bellevue, USA

  9. MR-GNF: Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting on Ellipsoidal Meshes for Efficient Regional Weather Prediction

    Mar 13, 2026Andrii Shchur, Inna Skarga-BandurovaWeather ForecastingGraph Neural Networks

    Kyiv School of Economics · Oxford Brookes University

  10. 3DTCR: Vortex-following generative reconstruction improves tropical cyclone intensity prediction from global AI weather forecasts

    Mar 13, 2026Jun Liu, Xiaohui Zhong, Kai Zheng +5Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China. · Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China. · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science, Shanghai, 200232, China.

  11. From AI Weather Prediction to Infrastructure Resilience: A Real-Time Correction-Downscaling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Impact Forecasting

    Mar 13, 2026You Wu, Zhenguo Wang, Naiyu WangWeather ForecastingClimate Downscaling

    College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China · State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., LTD. Electric power Research Institute China

  12. Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps

    Mar 11, 2026Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. LeeProbability CalibrationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Statistics, Federal University of Sao Carlos

  13. Developing Machine Learning-Based Watch-to-Warning Severe Weather Guidance from the Warn-on-Forecast System

    Mar 10, 2026Montgomery Flora, Samuel Varga, Corey Potvin +1Extreme Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma · NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma · AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography +5

  14. Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

    Mar 9, 2026Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus +7Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Development Innovation Lab, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 · Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 · Data Science Institute, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 +5

  15. Two-Stage Photovoltaic Forecasting: Separating Weather Prediction from Plant-Characteristics

    Mar 4, 2026Philipp Danner, Hermann de MeerSolar Power ForecastingSolar Irradiance Forecasting

    University of Passau, Innstraße 41, Passau, Germany

  16. Phys-Diff: A Physics-Inspired Latent Diffusion Model for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

    Feb 28, 2026Lei Liu, Xiaoning Yu, Kang Chen +4Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China

  17. Partial recovery of meter-scale surface weather

    Feb 26, 2026Jonathan Giezendanner, Qidong Yang, Ruizhe Huang +7Weather Forecasting

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Shell Information Technology · Allen Institute for AI +1

  18. Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

    Feb 26, 2026Yuejiang Yu, Langwen Huang, Alexandru Calotoiu +1Scaling LawsWeather Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

  19. A Synergistic Approach: Dynamics-AI Ensemble in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

    Feb 26, 2026Yonghui Li, Wansuo Duan, Hao Li +3Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 101408, China · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science (SAIS), Shanghai, 200232, China +5

  20. AviaSafe: A Physics-Informed Data-Driven Model for Aviation Safety-Critical Cloud Forecasts

    Feb 25, 2026Zijian Zhu, Qiusheng Huang, Anboyu Guo +2Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science · Shanghai Innovation Institute +2

  21. Ensemble-size-dependence of deep-learning post-processing methods that minimize an (un)fair score: motivating examples and a proof-of-concept solution

    Feb 17, 2026Christopher David RobertsProbabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom

  22. PDE foundation models are skillful AI weather emulators for the Martian atmosphere

    Feb 16, 2026Johannes Schmude, Sujit Roy, Liping Wang +10PDE Foundation ModelsWeather Forecasting

    IBM Research · NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Al, USA · Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Al, USA +1

  23. Symmetric Composition of Anisotropic Operators for Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Forecasting

    Feb 4, 2026Ziyu Zhou, Yuchen Fang, Weilin Ruan +4Climate ScienceTime Series Forecasting

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China

  24. Long-Range Distillation: Distilling 10,000 Years of Simulated Climate into Long Timestep AI Weather Models

    Dec 28, 2025Scott A. Martin, Noah Brenowitz, Dale Durran +1Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    NVIDIA Research, Santa Clara, CA, USA · School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA · Department of Atmospheric & Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

  25. CSU-PCAST: A Dual-Branch Transformer Framework for medium-range ensemble Precipitation Forecasting

    Oct 23, 2025Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney +3Precipitation ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO · NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO

  26. A Storm-Centric 250 m NEXRAD Level-II Dataset for High-Resolution ML Nowcasting

    Oct 15, 2025Andy ShiPrecipitation ForecastingPrecipitation Nowcasting

  27. CRPS-LAM: Probabilistic Regional Weather Forecasting with Continuous Ranked Probability Score

    Oct 10, 2025Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius +1Graph Neural NetworksEnsemble Learning

    Linköping University · ETH AI Center · SMHI & Linköping University

  28. Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system for ensemble data assimilation and weather prediction

    Aug 25, 2025Zekun Ni, Jonathan Weyn, Hang Zhang +7Ensemble LearningData Assimilation

    Microsoft Corporation. · Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.